09-14-2025, 02:43 PM
1. A fun team win! I can't say it better than Reich in terms of the quality play by each phase and how it took not only team effort but a comeback. Couple that with it being a conference home game and that's awfully fun as far as what we've been able to experience in recent years. When it comes to quality football it's not beating Louisville but where this one has a leg up was that it was early in the schedule before we've been fully beaten down. Subjectively watching on tv, it seemed like the fan energy in the stadium was better than our recent norm. If you pair people hoping against hope that the Luck era saves us with beating a conference opponent before the season is lost, there could be ingredients for better vibes ahead. While we still are a bad team that likely doesn't have a lot of wins ahead, beating a real opponent at home in September (first time since 2019!!!!) at least gives this squad a chance of developing some positive vibes for the faithful going forward.
2. The result is one I would take any time, a conference win against a team that made bowls the last two years. We fared better than Michigan State did last week, beating BC by eight points more and looking more impressive in several other ways (more below). Traveling cross-country is a sight harder than what BC had to do the previous week but I find it encouraging that the Eagles will be at least a month into the season before anybody gives them as hard a time as we did. We gave up half as many points as the Spartans. On the most basic level, yesterday was the most points we've scored this season and the fewest points we've given up, the name of the game. The biggest story of the game was turnovers, both for the profound impact they had on momentum at various junctures and because we capitalized in the form of 21 points off turnovers, the winning margin off turnovers alone. That's both exhilarating and a bit cautionary. It's still too early to put much stock in algorithms but as of now that was a performance befitting a top 40 team - in other words, our best game of the year (obviously) and one of the seven best of the 27 game post-Shaw era.
3. As Reich said, it was a true team win. The offense scored 2.3 points per non-garbage drive, playing like the #56 offense and making a defense SP+ and FEI both peg as in the 67-68 range nationally look like the #77 defense. The defense allowed 1.82 points per non-garbage drive (in real time none of the BC drives felt like garbage time per se but statistically their last drive and our last drive both were), playing like the #52 defense and making an offense SP+ and FEI peg as in the 50-54 range look like the #82 offense. That doesn't even account for the defense having a touchdown, the biggest play a defense can get. If you credit the defense with that touchdown on the ledger their net scoreboard impact was even more stingy, 1.18 points per drive being equivalent to the #26 defense in the nation. On special teams we won the field position battle in the punt phase and accounted for more than the scoring margin with the kicking game. The bottom line is that all phases won their battles and made BC look worse than they're supposed to. The beneficial (for us) combination of turnover fortune (the bounce of fumbles tends to be pure luck and those were good breaks our way) jet lag/body clocks gave us an edge that may not be fully reflective of team quality, but at the end of the game we had almost a yard more per play than they did and won the turnover battle. We deserved to win. The first half tie felt fluky to me but the second half was imposing our will. Maybe that doesn't happen if it's not 10pm their time after cross-country travel but we play with the schedule we have and on this day we were the better team.
4. The story of the game for the offense was finally being competent and for the defense was having numerous turnovers. By our standards, 6.76 yards per play constitutes an offensive explosion. In the last seven years, that's the ninth most explosive we've been in 69 dark ages games, and two of those were against FCS foes. We were 0.82 yards per play better than Michigan State and only one team tore the Eagles up more last year. On defense, the extremely positive turnover margin somewhat obscured that the defense gave up more yards per play than it has yet this season, by almost a yard per play, and more than Boston College has averaged giving up in a season since 2013. That's a warning sign and I think some are overrating the level of defensive play we saw. Nonetheless, they definitely contributed stops and, of course, turnovers.
5. So much of the focus of this season has been on the QB play. This game struck me as a fair crystallization of the limitations in our QB play, the extent to which issues with protection are often the problem more than QB play per se, and the potential (but as we saw from Hawaii and BYU far from assurance) of the offense to overcome those limitations. The passing game was dramatically better than the prior two contests and the third or fourth most prolific FBS game of the two and a quarter years of this offensive staff's era at Stanford. On the other hand, the enemy always has a vote and in this case the enemy may really suck at pass defense - the Michigan State passing attack carved the BC defense up even more badly - but at the very least we can come out of this game with a confidence boost for Gulbranson, who was 64th of 115 in Total QBR this week (Lonergan was 66th). Talk about reversion to the mean - that was the median career Total QBR performance for Gulbranson. Due to how horrible the first two games were he is still mired way down as 128th of 136 on the season, second worst in Power Four, but last night was more like what we expected. Now there will be no doubt he's our QB heading into Virginia and one would expect his national ranking will continue to tick up. He has a long way to go to good but I think those who want him benched will continue to be disappointed. There's no indication the coaches think Brown is better, Gulbranson just had a redemptive game, and the coaches constantly make clear Gulbranson is the fact of the team (now three for three in him coming out for the post-game press conference).
2. The result is one I would take any time, a conference win against a team that made bowls the last two years. We fared better than Michigan State did last week, beating BC by eight points more and looking more impressive in several other ways (more below). Traveling cross-country is a sight harder than what BC had to do the previous week but I find it encouraging that the Eagles will be at least a month into the season before anybody gives them as hard a time as we did. We gave up half as many points as the Spartans. On the most basic level, yesterday was the most points we've scored this season and the fewest points we've given up, the name of the game. The biggest story of the game was turnovers, both for the profound impact they had on momentum at various junctures and because we capitalized in the form of 21 points off turnovers, the winning margin off turnovers alone. That's both exhilarating and a bit cautionary. It's still too early to put much stock in algorithms but as of now that was a performance befitting a top 40 team - in other words, our best game of the year (obviously) and one of the seven best of the 27 game post-Shaw era.
3. As Reich said, it was a true team win. The offense scored 2.3 points per non-garbage drive, playing like the #56 offense and making a defense SP+ and FEI both peg as in the 67-68 range nationally look like the #77 defense. The defense allowed 1.82 points per non-garbage drive (in real time none of the BC drives felt like garbage time per se but statistically their last drive and our last drive both were), playing like the #52 defense and making an offense SP+ and FEI peg as in the 50-54 range look like the #82 offense. That doesn't even account for the defense having a touchdown, the biggest play a defense can get. If you credit the defense with that touchdown on the ledger their net scoreboard impact was even more stingy, 1.18 points per drive being equivalent to the #26 defense in the nation. On special teams we won the field position battle in the punt phase and accounted for more than the scoring margin with the kicking game. The bottom line is that all phases won their battles and made BC look worse than they're supposed to. The beneficial (for us) combination of turnover fortune (the bounce of fumbles tends to be pure luck and those were good breaks our way) jet lag/body clocks gave us an edge that may not be fully reflective of team quality, but at the end of the game we had almost a yard more per play than they did and won the turnover battle. We deserved to win. The first half tie felt fluky to me but the second half was imposing our will. Maybe that doesn't happen if it's not 10pm their time after cross-country travel but we play with the schedule we have and on this day we were the better team.
4. The story of the game for the offense was finally being competent and for the defense was having numerous turnovers. By our standards, 6.76 yards per play constitutes an offensive explosion. In the last seven years, that's the ninth most explosive we've been in 69 dark ages games, and two of those were against FCS foes. We were 0.82 yards per play better than Michigan State and only one team tore the Eagles up more last year. On defense, the extremely positive turnover margin somewhat obscured that the defense gave up more yards per play than it has yet this season, by almost a yard per play, and more than Boston College has averaged giving up in a season since 2013. That's a warning sign and I think some are overrating the level of defensive play we saw. Nonetheless, they definitely contributed stops and, of course, turnovers.
5. So much of the focus of this season has been on the QB play. This game struck me as a fair crystallization of the limitations in our QB play, the extent to which issues with protection are often the problem more than QB play per se, and the potential (but as we saw from Hawaii and BYU far from assurance) of the offense to overcome those limitations. The passing game was dramatically better than the prior two contests and the third or fourth most prolific FBS game of the two and a quarter years of this offensive staff's era at Stanford. On the other hand, the enemy always has a vote and in this case the enemy may really suck at pass defense - the Michigan State passing attack carved the BC defense up even more badly - but at the very least we can come out of this game with a confidence boost for Gulbranson, who was 64th of 115 in Total QBR this week (Lonergan was 66th). Talk about reversion to the mean - that was the median career Total QBR performance for Gulbranson. Due to how horrible the first two games were he is still mired way down as 128th of 136 on the season, second worst in Power Four, but last night was more like what we expected. Now there will be no doubt he's our QB heading into Virginia and one would expect his national ranking will continue to tick up. He has a long way to go to good but I think those who want him benched will continue to be disappointed. There's no indication the coaches think Brown is better, Gulbranson just had a redemptive game, and the coaches constantly make clear Gulbranson is the fact of the team (now three for three in him coming out for the post-game press conference).


