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Kelly "only" makes $2.8 million a year. By Pac-10 2009 standards he is well paid, but compared to other programs consistently in the top 10 (and Pac-12 2012 rates) his compensation is sub-par. Between Knight and the TV deal, I am sure Oregon could find a way to get him up into the $4+ million range. As a college coach he could likely bet on that pay structure staying strong and even growing over the next 10 years.
Most NFL coaches are not making that kind of money, and most certainly do not have 10 year job security.
So I suspect, like so many other coaches, it is not the money that is the driving force here. Most experts seem to think his scheme and tempo would never work in the NFL. That kind of stuff motivates people as talented as Kelly. I would guess he would like to go to the NFL to test and ultimately prove his greatness. The problem with Tampa was that it is Tampa. I suspect if there is a team with better ownership and a better group of talent on the roster then he will go.
Bowden, back in the day, had to have cancer treatment secretly because he feared his cancer would impact recruiting. That is how important it was to him to keep players believing he would coach at FSU for a long time.
Given the potential negatives, it probably is safe to say that Kelly is seriously considering the NFL, and has told recruits that too. Most players get this idea and would even want to play for a coach that might go to the NFL soon. Some will be turned off. It is what it is. When JH left, the players at Stanford were not shocked. It is just a matter of being open about it, IMO.