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Just out of curiosity, I looked up this year's projected 1st round (projected by a website, NFL Draft Countdown), and find out their star ranking (according to Rivals) when they were recruited out of high school. There obviously is some discrepancy between the Rivals ratings and the ratings of Scout and ESPN, but I didn't want to take the time to look up every site. Just for everyone's consideration, here is what I found.
5* Recruits--4 (Matt Kalil; Reuben Randle; Malcolm Floyd; Dre Kirkpatrick)
4* Recruits--15 (A. Luck; R. Griffin; D. Hightower; T. Richardson; C. Upshaw; M. Brookens; F. Cox; C. Glenn; M. Barron; Q. Coples; S. Gilmore; J. Jenkins; N. Perry; P. Konz; Melvin Ingram)
3* Recruits--10 (M. Claiborne; J. Blackmon; R. Reiff (who was recruited as a DE but will be drafted as a OT); R. Tannehill; L. Kuechly; D. DeCastro; K. Wright; J. Worthy; K. Zeitler; J. Martin)
2* Recruits--3 (D. Poe; A. Branch; K. Reyes)
I believe DeCastro was ranked as a 4* recruit by Scout, and may have been 4* for Rivals until the end of the recruiting cycle. Now, of course, he is being called by some the best OG prospect of this generation.Â
Food for thought: obviously there are a lot fewer 4* recruits than 3* or 2* recruits, so the percentage of 4* that make it into the first round (assuming that this projection is basically accurate) is fairly good. But the fact that nearly half of the first round projection is made up of 3* and 2* recruits does reinforce what we already know: it is well worth paying attention to those 3* recruits that make up a good part of each class.Â
And, a warning about overhyping classes: in the same recruiting class as Matt Kalil (2008), USC had 13 4* recruits and 2 5* recruits. Of those, I think only a few ended up having a major impact on their program: Kalil, Nick Perry (also projected for the first round); Khaled Holmes (drafted last year I think?). Maybe a couple of others contributed at the college level, and are role players in the NFL.Â