04-02-2013, 08:39 AM
I spoke my piece on Dawkins - both via email and in a nearly 30-minute phone conversation with Muir (he called me after I emailed him in early Feb). My takeaway is that his decision is based on two factors, both of which I wholeheartedly disagree with:
- Stanford was close to winning a number of games. While true, Dawkins' career record in games decided by 5 pts or fewer is 13-31 and has never been above .500 in any season. So it wasn't a surprise that Stanford was 3-6 this year (2-6 pre-NIT). IMnsHO the consistent inability to win close games is the number one reason Stanford has not made the NCAAs or finished in the top half of the Pac-12 during Dawkins' tenure.
- Stanford doesn't match up talent-wise with the top teams. First, I call complete BS on this one, but more importantly, whether it does or not doesn't matter when evaluating the head coach. If the talent isn't there (contrary to the past), then the blame falls to Dawkins for poor recruiting. If the talent is there, then the blame falls to Dawkins for not getting enough out of it.
I am very torn about renewing my basketball season tickets. Part of me has no confidence that next year's team is going to make the NCAAs, in which case I am making a one-year investment toward a better future. My concern is that the opposite happens: Dawkins does get us to the NCAAs, stays on, and after the uber-class leaves the team reverts to mediocrity for another 3-4 years until Muir fires him. I have little hope that Dawkins can re-fill the cupboard in next year's recruiting season given the ultimatum Muir has given him.
I think Muir is going to lose at least 500 season ticket seats, and possibly 1,000. That adds up to a bigger cost than buying out Dawkins' contract. Just not sure yet if he's going to lose mine.
- Stanford was close to winning a number of games. While true, Dawkins' career record in games decided by 5 pts or fewer is 13-31 and has never been above .500 in any season. So it wasn't a surprise that Stanford was 3-6 this year (2-6 pre-NIT). IMnsHO the consistent inability to win close games is the number one reason Stanford has not made the NCAAs or finished in the top half of the Pac-12 during Dawkins' tenure.
- Stanford doesn't match up talent-wise with the top teams. First, I call complete BS on this one, but more importantly, whether it does or not doesn't matter when evaluating the head coach. If the talent isn't there (contrary to the past), then the blame falls to Dawkins for poor recruiting. If the talent is there, then the blame falls to Dawkins for not getting enough out of it.
I am very torn about renewing my basketball season tickets. Part of me has no confidence that next year's team is going to make the NCAAs, in which case I am making a one-year investment toward a better future. My concern is that the opposite happens: Dawkins does get us to the NCAAs, stays on, and after the uber-class leaves the team reverts to mediocrity for another 3-4 years until Muir fires him. I have little hope that Dawkins can re-fill the cupboard in next year's recruiting season given the ultimatum Muir has given him.
I think Muir is going to lose at least 500 season ticket seats, and possibly 1,000. That adds up to a bigger cost than buying out Dawkins' contract. Just not sure yet if he's going to lose mine.

