[washingtonismoney]

If you took away the padded stats against Low APR U, the statistical argument loses some strength. Stats can be misleading.  For example, Steve Dils led the nation in passing, but Bill Walsh passed on him in the draft.

1. Everyone in the conference got to pad stats against kal. Not a valid argument. Even if you take away his kal performance you still have an erratic but overall successful QB. (And, in fact, almost all QBs play many bad defenses.) In fact, given the difficulty of Stanford's schedule, this is a poor argument to use if you're trying to suggest Hogan's statistics are deceptive relative to other quarterbacks.

2. Who cares about the draft? Suggestive, but not definitive in answering the real questions, which are: a) how productive is Hogan? b) are (and how many) flaws in Hogan's game attributable to his poor mechanics and c) if flaws are attributable to his poor mechanics, would it be the most efficient use of time to address his poor mechanics, or would time be better spent on other aspects of his game?

(btw, w/r/t those questions:
a) Pretty productive! He's been too erratic this season, which gives you pause, but still, the season-long picture is pretty solid.
b) Don't know! This is what we're trying to address. I don't deny that Hogan's mechanics look ugly, but my question is, how is this hindering him -- be specific -- given his solid overall level of production.
c) My suspicion is no! Given the number of QBs who always say they're working on their mechanics -- from Tim Tebow to Taylor Martinez to Collin Klein -- and nevertheless roll out with the same funky throwing motion the next year, my guess is that after a certain point, if your mechanics suck they suck. On the other hand, given Hogan's sometimes-poor decision making (see those INTs posted above), I think that would be an excellent place to work on improving his game. (By the way, fullmetal, those INTs are very relevant...if we want to examine why bad things happen when they happen. If your conclusion is that this is "not relevant to the matter at hand" -- which I assume is Hogan's poor mechanics -- perhaps it's time to reexamine your priors, given that by your own admission the mechanics played zippo role in the specific passes I highlighted.)

EDIT: cleaned up some of my poor writing.

[washingtonismoney]

If you took away the padded stats against Low APR U, the statistical argument loses some strength. Stats can be misleading.  For example, Steve Dils led the nation in passing, but Bill Walsh passed on him in the draft.

1. Everyone in the conference got to pad stats against kal. Not a valid argument. Even if you take away his kal performance you still have an erratic but overall successful QB. (And, in fact, almost all QBs play many bad defenses.) In fact, given the difficulty of Stanford's schedule, this is a poor argument to use if you're trying to suggest Hogan's statistics are deceptive relative to other quarterbacks.

2. Who cares about the draft? Suggestive, but not definitive in answering the real questions, which are: a) how productive is Hogan? b) are (and how many) flaws in Hogan's game attributable to his poor mechanics and c) if flaws are attributable to his poor mechanics, would it be the most efficient use of time to address his poor mechanics, or would time be better spent on other aspects of his game?

(btw, w/r/t those questions:
a) Pretty productive! He's been too erratic this season, which gives you pause, but still, the season-long picture is pretty solid.
b) Don't know! This is what we're trying to address. I don't deny that Hogan's mechanics look ugly, but my question is, how is this hindering him -- be specific -- given his solid overall level of production.
c) My suspicion is no! Given the number of QBs who always say they're working on their mechanics -- from Tim Tebow to Taylor Martinez to Collin Klein -- and nevertheless roll out with the same funky throwing motion the next year, my guess is that after a certain point, if your mechanics suck they suck. On the other hand, given Hogan's sometimes-poor decision making (see those INTs posted above), I think that would be an excellent place to work on improving his game. (By the way, fullmetal, those INTs are very relevant...if we want to examine why bad things happen when they happen. If your conclusion is that this is "not relevant to the matter at hand" -- which I assume is Hogan's poor mechanics -- perhaps it's time to reexamine your priors, given that by your own admission the mechanics played zippo role in the specific passes I highlighted.)

EDIT: cleaned up some of my poor writing.

[terry]

If you took away the padded stats against Low APR U, the statistical argument loses some strength. Stats can be misleading.   

I am not a believer in the idea of disregarding certain games. Sure, Ca'l is a bad team. But just about every QB goes up against some bad teams during the course of a season. Most QBs see more bad defenses than Hogan did. All of those games count. I don't think we can just ignore them.

[terry]

If you took away the padded stats against Low APR U, the statistical argument loses some strength. Stats can be misleading.   

I am not a believer in the idea of disregarding certain games. Sure, Ca'l is a bad team. But just about every QB goes up against some bad teams during the course of a season. Most QBs see more bad defenses than Hogan did. All of those games count. I don't think we can just ignore them.

[BostonCard]

I don't see Pritchard improving Hogan's throwing mechanics however.

Setting aside the debate on whether Hogan's mechanics really are bad and if "fixing" them would lead to Hogan being a better QB for a second, and granting the implicit message that Pritchard had bad mechanics himself, what makes you think that someone with imperfect throwing mechanics cannot help a QB improve his throwing mechanics.  Do you think only someone with perfect mechanics can help a QB improve their mechanics?  Do you think that Tiger Woods' swing coaches had perfect swings themselves?  The skills required to be a good coach and teacher are not the same ones that are needed to play the position well.  Everything I have heard is that Pritchard is an excellent coach.  The only question is whether he has enough experience teaching that he is able to correctly identify the flaws and know what to do to fix them.  If they are as obvious as the armchair QB's on this board think they are, then the answer to the first part is "yes".  We'll find out soon enough the answer to the second part.

BC

[BostonCard]

I don't see Pritchard improving Hogan's throwing mechanics however.

Setting aside the debate on whether Hogan's mechanics really are bad and if "fixing" them would lead to Hogan being a better QB for a second, and granting the implicit message that Pritchard had bad mechanics himself, what makes you think that someone with imperfect throwing mechanics cannot help a QB improve his throwing mechanics.  Do you think only someone with perfect mechanics can help a QB improve their mechanics?  Do you think that Tiger Woods' swing coaches had perfect swings themselves?  The skills required to be a good coach and teacher are not the same ones that are needed to play the position well.  Everything I have heard is that Pritchard is an excellent coach.  The only question is whether he has enough experience teaching that he is able to correctly identify the flaws and know what to do to fix them.  If they are as obvious as the armchair QB's on this board think they are, then the answer to the first part is "yes".  We'll find out soon enough the answer to the second part.

BC

[Hulk01]

Throw the game out
If Hogan has to throw out stats against horrible defenses like The Axe Losers, he gets to throw out an equal number that we achieved against stellar defenses. 

Our guys faced a brutal schedule this year.  So if a guy had good stats, they were damn good stats.

Ugly mechanics
Two words: Jim Furyk.

[Hulk01]

Throw the game out
If Hogan has to throw out stats against horrible defenses like The Axe Losers, he gets to throw out an equal number that we achieved against stellar defenses. 

Our guys faced a brutal schedule this year.  So if a guy had good stats, they were damn good stats.

Ugly mechanics
Two words: Jim Furyk.

[BostonCard]

Hey Hulk!  Long time no see...

I'm glad I decided to head on over here for my dose of Stanford discussion... and was very happy that you had taken your insightful commentary and recruiting observations here.  Hope all is well in Minnesota is it?

BC

[BostonCard]

Hey Hulk!  Long time no see...

I'm glad I decided to head on over here for my dose of Stanford discussion... and was very happy that you had taken your insightful commentary and recruiting observations here.  Hope all is well in Minnesota is it?

BC

[fullmetal]

I'm with you there Hulk, but the timing of hitting a golf ball isn't forced by external pressures :)

stupac2, you can remain unconvinced as far as your standard of proof will carry you.  All this time I thought you had some concrete piece of evidence to oppose me with, but now I see it's just that I haven't cured your boundless skepticism.  Also, you can send me a check now for all the respect points this exchange has earned you.

Here's to a very special 2013 season and hopefully another Rose Bowl win!

[fullmetal]

I'm with you there Hulk, but the timing of hitting a golf ball isn't forced by external pressures :)

stupac2, you can remain unconvinced as far as your standard of proof will carry you.  All this time I thought you had some concrete piece of evidence to oppose me with, but now I see it's just that I haven't cured your boundless skepticism.  Also, you can send me a check now for all the respect points this exchange has earned you.

Here's to a very special 2013 season and hopefully another Rose Bowl win!

[dabigv13]

When it comes to Hogan's throwing motion, I think Potter Stewart's view on hardcore porn applies- we know Hogan doesn't have the greatest throwing motion when we see it. It trends more toward the Tim Tebow frittata than the Dan Marino laser release. No, I don't know how many more milliseconds it might take, but it doesn't look compact, so I'd have to think it probably is a little bit slower.

Now, is it better to have a quick release, or a slow release? All things being equal, a quick release would seem to be better.

All that being said, Hogan has proven that he can throw the ball well, on short, medium, and long throws. He has proven that he can make plays when the game is on the line. He's also proven that he can throw some absolute ducks and play some terrible games, usually on the road.

Do his mechanics have anything to do with his consistency? I suppose it's possible, but I also think changing your mechanics would probably harm, not help your consistency at this stage of the game.

[dabigv13]

When it comes to Hogan's throwing motion, I think Potter Stewart's view on hardcore porn applies- we know Hogan doesn't have the greatest throwing motion when we see it. It trends more toward the Tim Tebow frittata than the Dan Marino laser release. No, I don't know how many more milliseconds it might take, but it doesn't look compact, so I'd have to think it probably is a little bit slower.

Now, is it better to have a quick release, or a slow release? All things being equal, a quick release would seem to be better.

All that being said, Hogan has proven that he can throw the ball well, on short, medium, and long throws. He has proven that he can make plays when the game is on the line. He's also proven that he can throw some absolute ducks and play some terrible games, usually on the road.

Do his mechanics have anything to do with his consistency? I suppose it's possible, but I also think changing your mechanics would probably harm, not help your consistency at this stage of the game.

[RandyB]

[quote author=DC link=topic=9207.msg79182#msg79182 date=1387604743]
I don't see Pritchard improving Hogan's throwing mechanics however.

Setting aside the debate on whether Hogan's mechanics really are bad and if "fixing" them would lead to Hogan being a better QB for a second, and granting the implicit message that Pritchard had bad mechanics himself, what makes you think that someone with imperfect throwing mechanics cannot help a QB improve his throwing mechanics. 
BC
[/quote]

DC can speak for him/herself, but maybe this wasn't a comment on Tavita's coaching abilities but rather a comment on how hard it is to change from a long to compact throwing motion.  My experience comes from working with pitchers, but it's not that different from throwing a football.  I would sometimes try to get righties to shorten up their release when making a move to first base, because a quicker, more compact motion gets the ball over there faster.  Largely a waste of time:  the guys with long motions were pretty much incapable of making the change to a "short-arm" throw and still maintaining any accuracy.  The motion is just too ingrained from 10's of 1000's of reps.

Some other comments general to this thread.  There is a difference between a long motion and a slow release.  You can have a long motion and still have a fairly quick release.  In fact, Shaw is on record as saying Hogan has a quick release (take it for what it's worth  :P).  On the other hand, Chryst has a relatively more compact motion but his release isn't all that quick (Dilfer criticized Chryst in the Elite 11 competition as having a slow release).  I haven't put a stopwatch to it, but it wouldn't surprise me if Hogan's release was just as (or almost as) fast as Chryst's.  If you want to see a quick, compact motion, take a look at Burns's video.  His release is much closer to the Aaron Rogers-type release that qb coaches probably covet.  Also, I don't think the fact that Chryst puts more loft on his throws is a function of better mechanics, but rather a stronger arm.  Finally, I don't see the "sidearm" delivery with Hogan that some talk about.  Maybe not straight over the top, but certainly close enough to be acceptable.

[RandyB]

[quote author=DC link=topic=9207.msg79182#msg79182 date=1387604743]
I don't see Pritchard improving Hogan's throwing mechanics however.

Setting aside the debate on whether Hogan's mechanics really are bad and if "fixing" them would lead to Hogan being a better QB for a second, and granting the implicit message that Pritchard had bad mechanics himself, what makes you think that someone with imperfect throwing mechanics cannot help a QB improve his throwing mechanics. 
BC
[/quote]

DC can speak for him/herself, but maybe this wasn't a comment on Tavita's coaching abilities but rather a comment on how hard it is to change from a long to compact throwing motion.  My experience comes from working with pitchers, but it's not that different from throwing a football.  I would sometimes try to get righties to shorten up their release when making a move to first base, because a quicker, more compact motion gets the ball over there faster.  Largely a waste of time:  the guys with long motions were pretty much incapable of making the change to a "short-arm" throw and still maintaining any accuracy.  The motion is just too ingrained from 10's of 1000's of reps.

Some other comments general to this thread.  There is a difference between a long motion and a slow release.  You can have a long motion and still have a fairly quick release.  In fact, Shaw is on record as saying Hogan has a quick release (take it for what it's worth  :P).  On the other hand, Chryst has a relatively more compact motion but his release isn't all that quick (Dilfer criticized Chryst in the Elite 11 competition as having a slow release).  I haven't put a stopwatch to it, but it wouldn't surprise me if Hogan's release was just as (or almost as) fast as Chryst's.  If you want to see a quick, compact motion, take a look at Burns's video.  His release is much closer to the Aaron Rogers-type release that qb coaches probably covet.  Also, I don't think the fact that Chryst puts more loft on his throws is a function of better mechanics, but rather a stronger arm.  Finally, I don't see the "sidearm" delivery with Hogan that some talk about.  Maybe not straight over the top, but certainly close enough to be acceptable.

[Ratmandoo]

I think the key to the whole mechanics argument is what it repeatable. Repeatable release point, balance, and footwork are all key to accuracy. So if someone has a "funky" motion, it doesn't necessarily mean he has poor mechanics.

Hulk's example of Jim Furyk is perfect. That's about as awkward a swing as you can imagine but Furyk has amazing hand-eye coordination and timing. It doesn't matter how his swing gets there, his ball striking is impeccable. It's really just amazing that he can repeat that jerky, ugly swing again and again. However, this isn't a swing you would teach to anyone else as it would be just about impossible to emulate.

And then there's Matthew Stafford, who generally looks good throwing the ball, but his mechanics are all over the place. He has such a ridiculous arm that he's developed a ton of bad habits like throwing side arm, off his back foot, etc. and goes into terrible funks where his accuracy goes down the drain.

For Hogan, his wind up does look long and funky but he's been fairly effective if inconsistent at times this year. With a longer wind up, it is much harder to repeat the same motions because there are so many more moving parts.  So I think Hogan's extended lapses in accuracy are when he loses his mechanics (i.e. his release point is off) and it takes him a little longer to get them back. A more compact fluid motion seems more repeatable but for anyone who's spent a lifetime throwing a certain way, changing may not be possible.

I don't think the release time is an issue for Hogan but rather anticipating throws on the intermediate routes and making quicker decisions. 

Just my two cents. I may not know what I'm talking about but this just seems to make sense.

[Ratmandoo]

I think the key to the whole mechanics argument is what it repeatable. Repeatable release point, balance, and footwork are all key to accuracy. So if someone has a "funky" motion, it doesn't necessarily mean he has poor mechanics.

Hulk's example of Jim Furyk is perfect. That's about as awkward a swing as you can imagine but Furyk has amazing hand-eye coordination and timing. It doesn't matter how his swing gets there, his ball striking is impeccable. It's really just amazing that he can repeat that jerky, ugly swing again and again. However, this isn't a swing you would teach to anyone else as it would be just about impossible to emulate.

And then there's Matthew Stafford, who generally looks good throwing the ball, but his mechanics are all over the place. He has such a ridiculous arm that he's developed a ton of bad habits like throwing side arm, off his back foot, etc. and goes into terrible funks where his accuracy goes down the drain.

For Hogan, his wind up does look long and funky but he's been fairly effective if inconsistent at times this year. With a longer wind up, it is much harder to repeat the same motions because there are so many more moving parts.  So I think Hogan's extended lapses in accuracy are when he loses his mechanics (i.e. his release point is off) and it takes him a little longer to get them back. A more compact fluid motion seems more repeatable but for anyone who's spent a lifetime throwing a certain way, changing may not be possible.

I don't think the release time is an issue for Hogan but rather anticipating throws on the intermediate routes and making quicker decisions. 

Just my two cents. I may not know what I'm talking about but this just seems to make sense.

[Extra Point]

My experience comes from working with pitchers, but it's not that different from throwing a football.  I would sometimes try to get righties to shorten up their release when making a move to first base, because a quicker, more compact motion gets the ball over there faster.  Largely a waste of time:  the guys with long motions were pretty much incapable of making the change to a "short-arm" throw and still maintaining any accuracy.  The motion is just too ingrained from 10's of 1000's of reps.

What level of baseball did you coach? How much effort did you put into changing this behavior? Did your pitchers practice shorter motions in the off season? Did you have trouble teaching pitchers new pitches? Were you able to improve a pitcher's curve and fast balls?

[Extra Point]

My experience comes from working with pitchers, but it's not that different from throwing a football.  I would sometimes try to get righties to shorten up their release when making a move to first base, because a quicker, more compact motion gets the ball over there faster.  Largely a waste of time:  the guys with long motions were pretty much incapable of making the change to a "short-arm" throw and still maintaining any accuracy.  The motion is just too ingrained from 10's of 1000's of reps.

What level of baseball did you coach? How much effort did you put into changing this behavior? Did your pitchers practice shorter motions in the off season? Did you have trouble teaching pitchers new pitches? Were you able to improve a pitcher's curve and fast balls?

[fullmetal]

RandyB2, you're right, Hogan isn't Vince Young when it comes to sidearm throws...just somewhere in between--look at his follow-through posture to see where his momentum is carrying him.  Lot of lateral motion.  Thanks for the clarification on motion and release.  I should be saying "wind-up" more than release.

Hogan's missed a number of short- to intermediate- throws to where I worry (unduly?) about those as well.  Some of those misses are behind the receiver, some just sail over receivers' heads.  Fix those and the offense will be money. 

[fullmetal]

RandyB2, you're right, Hogan isn't Vince Young when it comes to sidearm throws...just somewhere in between--look at his follow-through posture to see where his momentum is carrying him.  Lot of lateral motion.  Thanks for the clarification on motion and release.  I should be saying "wind-up" more than release.

Hogan's missed a number of short- to intermediate- throws to where I worry (unduly?) about those as well.  Some of those misses are behind the receiver, some just sail over receivers' heads.  Fix those and the offense will be money. 

[Stymie]

IMO, the least efficient QB action is most akin to a baseball pitching action, which (even if holding a runner on base) is a slow-mo build up of energy and then a maximum strength release.  The most efficent QB action is most akin to the action of a catcher trying to throw out someone trying to steal 2nd base, i.e stand up, cock the arm behind the ear, throw it as quickly as possible and with as much strength as possible on a vertical plane at a very small target.  The first QB I ever noticed using this action was Joe Namath, and he was as good as they come.  Very few had (or have) the combination of quickness and arm strength and field awareness that Joe Wille had.

Vis a vis Hogan, he doesn't have that motion in his physical vocabulary, but he dances with the girl (aka his less than perfect mechanics) which he brings to each game, and he is getting better and better, on his own terms, and in his own comfort zone.  Be thankful for what we have rather than what we might have had.  Both Burns and Chryst look good, but let's wait and see.  I for one am willing to take Tavita's work and judgement if and when we get to a "Which QB to play?" crisis.

PS--as for the future, I think from my limited

[Stymie]

IMO, the least efficient QB action is most akin to a baseball pitching action, which (even if holding a runner on base) is a slow-mo build up of energy and then a maximum strength release.  The most efficent QB action is most akin to the action of a catcher trying to throw out someone trying to steal 2nd base, i.e stand up, cock the arm behind the ear, throw it as quickly as possible and with as much strength as possible on a vertical plane at a very small target.  The first QB I ever noticed using this action was Joe Namath, and he was as good as they come.  Very few had (or have) the combination of quickness and arm strength and field awareness that Joe Wille had.

Vis a vis Hogan, he doesn't have that motion in his physical vocabulary, but he dances with the girl (aka his less than perfect mechanics) which he brings to each game, and he is getting better and better, on his own terms, and in his own comfort zone.  Be thankful for what we have rather than what we might have had.  Both Burns and Chryst look good, but let's wait and see.  I for one am willing to take Tavita's work and judgement if and when we get to a "Which QB to play?" crisis.

PS--as for the future, I think from my limited

[RandyB]

EP:  1.  All the way from Little League up through high school and traveling hs-age summer teams.  2-3.  I'm not saying it's impossible to change an arm motion of a college qb (or high school pitcher) from long to compact, but that the substantial time investment could be spent more profitably on other areas of improvement.  4.  No.  5.  Yes.

RMDoo:  Excellent point about repeatable motions. The longer and more involved they are, the harder they are to repeat.  That said, I'm sure the coaching staff is focused on getting Hogan to a consistent, repetitive motion.

Stymie:  Exactly, a catcher's throwing motion is the "short-arm" throw I was talking about.  All proper throwing motions eventually have to get to and go through that cocked position prior to release, with the elbow at or slightly above shoulder height and a 90 degree elbow bend (ideally).  The quicker you can get to that point, the better for a qb (or catcher).

[RandyB]

EP:  1.  All the way from Little League up through high school and traveling hs-age summer teams.  2-3.  I'm not saying it's impossible to change an arm motion of a college qb (or high school pitcher) from long to compact, but that the substantial time investment could be spent more profitably on other areas of improvement.  4.  No.  5.  Yes.

RMDoo:  Excellent point about repeatable motions. The longer and more involved they are, the harder they are to repeat.  That said, I'm sure the coaching staff is focused on getting Hogan to a consistent, repetitive motion.

Stymie:  Exactly, a catcher's throwing motion is the "short-arm" throw I was talking about.  All proper throwing motions eventually have to get to and go through that cocked position prior to release, with the elbow at or slightly above shoulder height and a 90 degree elbow bend (ideally).  The quicker you can get to that point, the better for a qb (or catcher).

[terry]

Stats can be misleading.  For example, Steve Dils led the nation in passing, but Bill Walsh passed on him in the draft.

Walsh didn't pass on Dils -- the San Francisco GM (don't remember now who it was) did. They had a pretty big fight about it; Walsh wanted Dils badly. But the guy the GM wanted, Joe Montana, turned out okay, which eased the bad blood.

Steve Dils played in the NFL for 10 years. In the big picture, that's a pretty good career. Of the 16 quarterbacks picked in that draft, I'd say Dils probably had a better career than all but two of them (Phil Simms and Joe Montana).

[terry]

Stats can be misleading.  For example, Steve Dils led the nation in passing, but Bill Walsh passed on him in the draft.

Walsh didn't pass on Dils -- the San Francisco GM (don't remember now who it was) did. They had a pretty big fight about it; Walsh wanted Dils badly. But the guy the GM wanted, Joe Montana, turned out okay, which eased the bad blood.

Steve Dils played in the NFL for 10 years. In the big picture, that's a pretty good career. Of the 16 quarterbacks picked in that draft, I'd say Dils probably had a better career than all but two of them (Phil Simms and Joe Montana).

[Mick]

Maybe Steve Fuller is in front of Dils too...but Dils is ahead of the others 12.

[Mick]

Maybe Steve Fuller is in front of Dils too...but Dils is ahead of the others 12.