Interesting. Not a lot of common comparison points. Stanford's per game delta is 14.6 points, Michigan State's is 17.1, albeit with a substantially weaker schedule. Michigan State did well against tOSU in their championship game, Stanford annihilated ASU in the pac 12 champ game.Â
They had one common opponent, Notre Dame. Stanford won 27-20 at home; Michigan State lost to So.Bend U in So Bend. 17-13, suggesting an 11 point difference between the teams, minus the three point home advantage, divided by two (since the points occurred over two games), lending Stanford a four point advantage. Line opened at -1.5 Stanford, has moved to -6 Stanford.
As for the games, the ND/MSU games were very close, net offense was 254 MSU 224 ND, with 3.4 ypp for ND and 3.6 for MSU. MSU missed a field goal, ND's defense intercepted a ball, no other fumbles. Lots of penalties in the game, ND had 10 penalties for 115 yards, MSU had 8 for 86 yards. Score after three quarters was tied, 10-10. Neither QB did well.
Stanford's victory over ND wasn't quite as close. Stanford had 419 yards for 6.1 ypp, ND had 263 yards at 4.5 per play. Notre Dame scored two TDs and both TD drives were kept alive by Stanford penalties. The first drive, ND got two first downs, one on a pass interference, one on a personal foul. On the second ND TD drive, a roughing the passer call on 3rd and 10 positioned ND for their other TD. There were no fumbles in this game, but both QBs got picked off twice. Hogan was 12 for 18 with 1 TD and 2 picks, 155 yards. Rees was 16/34 for 188 yards and 2 TD, 2 INTs. Gaffney was a brobdingnagian running success, 33 carries for 190 yards. No ND runner was as strong. Wilkerson similarly had a good game at 5 carries for 34 yards. The immobile Hogan gained 40 yards on 8 carries, and the lightning-quick ND QB Rees had 0 yards on 1 carry.
Some interesting stats:
* Michigan State allows an average of 80 yards on the ground...but Ohio State ran for 273 against them.
* MSU's Jeremy Langford didn't run for 100 or more yards in his first five games, has exceeded it in every game since.
* MSU has allowed six or less points in five of their last seven games. 24 vs. OSU
* Stanf has 66 penalties on season, MSU has 72
* MSU has not seen a RB as strong as Gaffney.
* MSU is 9 of 14 on converting 4th downs, Stanford is 8 of 12
* MSU converts less than 45% of 3rd downs, Stanford is over 51%
* MSU has been penalized 17 times on first down, Stanford 18.
* MSU kicker is 18 of 21 on FGs, 45 of 48 on PATs. Stanford is 18 of 23 and 50 of 52.
* According to ESPN, Stanford has fourth toughest Strength of Schedule. MSU is #48.
The big indicator for me? David Shaw and Stanford players. Smart coach, smart team with six weeks to prepare for the bowl. He coached for nine years in the NFL, has coached or ass't coached into four straight BCS games, including a 3 point loss two years ago, and a six point win last year. He's up against Mark Dantonio. Dantonio's record in bowl games is 3-4. His wins were by 3, 3 and 1 point including victories the last two years. His losses were by 3, 10, 12 and 42 (versus Alabama in 2009, Capital One game)
I'm still liking Stanford at -6 here, won't say more (please don't look at me, woofing gods).
They had one common opponent, Notre Dame. Stanford won 27-20 at home; Michigan State lost to So.Bend U in So Bend. 17-13, suggesting an 11 point difference between the teams, minus the three point home advantage, divided by two (since the points occurred over two games), lending Stanford a four point advantage. Line opened at -1.5 Stanford, has moved to -6 Stanford.
As for the games, the ND/MSU games were very close, net offense was 254 MSU 224 ND, with 3.4 ypp for ND and 3.6 for MSU. MSU missed a field goal, ND's defense intercepted a ball, no other fumbles. Lots of penalties in the game, ND had 10 penalties for 115 yards, MSU had 8 for 86 yards. Score after three quarters was tied, 10-10. Neither QB did well.
Stanford's victory over ND wasn't quite as close. Stanford had 419 yards for 6.1 ypp, ND had 263 yards at 4.5 per play. Notre Dame scored two TDs and both TD drives were kept alive by Stanford penalties. The first drive, ND got two first downs, one on a pass interference, one on a personal foul. On the second ND TD drive, a roughing the passer call on 3rd and 10 positioned ND for their other TD. There were no fumbles in this game, but both QBs got picked off twice. Hogan was 12 for 18 with 1 TD and 2 picks, 155 yards. Rees was 16/34 for 188 yards and 2 TD, 2 INTs. Gaffney was a brobdingnagian running success, 33 carries for 190 yards. No ND runner was as strong. Wilkerson similarly had a good game at 5 carries for 34 yards. The immobile Hogan gained 40 yards on 8 carries, and the lightning-quick ND QB Rees had 0 yards on 1 carry.
Some interesting stats:
* Michigan State allows an average of 80 yards on the ground...but Ohio State ran for 273 against them.
* MSU's Jeremy Langford didn't run for 100 or more yards in his first five games, has exceeded it in every game since.
* MSU has allowed six or less points in five of their last seven games. 24 vs. OSU
* Stanf has 66 penalties on season, MSU has 72
* MSU has not seen a RB as strong as Gaffney.
* MSU is 9 of 14 on converting 4th downs, Stanford is 8 of 12
* MSU converts less than 45% of 3rd downs, Stanford is over 51%
* MSU has been penalized 17 times on first down, Stanford 18.
* MSU kicker is 18 of 21 on FGs, 45 of 48 on PATs. Stanford is 18 of 23 and 50 of 52.
* According to ESPN, Stanford has fourth toughest Strength of Schedule. MSU is #48.
The big indicator for me? David Shaw and Stanford players. Smart coach, smart team with six weeks to prepare for the bowl. He coached for nine years in the NFL, has coached or ass't coached into four straight BCS games, including a 3 point loss two years ago, and a six point win last year. He's up against Mark Dantonio. Dantonio's record in bowl games is 3-4. His wins were by 3, 3 and 1 point including victories the last two years. His losses were by 3, 10, 12 and 42 (versus Alabama in 2009, Capital One game)
I'm still liking Stanford at -6 here, won't say more (please don't look at me, woofing gods).
Audaces fortuna iuvat
