01-21-2014, 08:44 PM
I can't help but compare Stanford's loss in the Rose Bowl against a very strong MSU defense with a superlative backfield to the 49ers loss to in the NFC championship against a very strong Seahawks defense with a superlative backfield. The parallels are quite eerie. Both teams relinquished an early lead but had a chance to win the game with about two minutes to go in the game, needing a touchdown to win. And, on that final drive, both coaches faced a fourth down. Of course, both teams ultimately fell short in the end... Even the final scores were fairly similar (24-20 vs. 23-17).
With 4th and 1, David Shaw put his faith in the running game, and unfortunately we know what happened; MSU stuffed the run and took over on downs.
With 4th and 2, Harbaugh put his faith in Colin Kapernick's arm, and he converted, hitting Frank Gore on a short pass that he turned into 17 yards.
So, you might be tempted to think that maybe Shaw should have tried something other than the play that everyone thought we were going to run, and maybe the outcome would have been different.
Of course, five plays later (after three of the four prior plays had been passes), Harbaugh again puts his faith in Colin Kapernick's arm, challenging one of the top cornerbacks in the league (or maybe the top cornerback)... the result was a tipped ball that resulted in an interception.Â
TMQ's Gregg Easterbrook questioned Harbaugh's play calling by writing:
And, of course, Shaw took a lot of heat for calling the run play that ended our drive in the Rose Bowl. Was one of them right, and the other wrong. Were they both wrong? Could you have known that before the ball was snapped?
This brings us to the title of my post. Obviously, with the benefit of hindsight, we shouldn't have run between the tackles in the Rose Bowl, and Harbaugh shouldn't have called a pass against Sherman in the NFC championship. But we can only say that because we have the benefit of hindsight, and because our counterfactual -- that Shaw should have called a reverse or a pass or a bootleg or a read option or anything other than what he called (and that Harbaugh should have called a pass to Davis, or another receiver, or should have simply given the ball to Gore) -- is completely untestable. Maybe Shaw calls a pass to Ty Montgomery lined up against Dennard on an island and Dennard tips it in the end zone for a game sealing interception. Or Harbaugh gives the ball to Gore, who is stuffed on fourth down. Is there a sequence of play calls that would have led to victory for Stanford or the 49ers? Almost certainly (and probably a very large permutation of calls). Is that sequence knowable in advance? Absolutely not.
I'm not someone who believes coaches should all be above reproach. They are human. I certainly like to think about what play "ought to be called" in many situations, and yeah, a fullback dive was not what I would have called on fourth and 1 with 1:46 left and the game on the line. But I also am not so arrogant to think that the play I would have called in that situation (I was thinking a read option) would have worked any better, or that if it did, that some other play call I would have made in that drive would not have resulted in an interception or fumble or failed fourth down.
The fan in me is of course disappointed in the results. But the fan in me has also accepted the results and is ok acknowledging that MSU and the Seahawks earned their respective wins. Both the Rose Bowl and the NFC championship were incredibly entertaining games.
BC
With 4th and 1, David Shaw put his faith in the running game, and unfortunately we know what happened; MSU stuffed the run and took over on downs.
With 4th and 2, Harbaugh put his faith in Colin Kapernick's arm, and he converted, hitting Frank Gore on a short pass that he turned into 17 yards.
So, you might be tempted to think that maybe Shaw should have tried something other than the play that everyone thought we were going to run, and maybe the outcome would have been different.
Of course, five plays later (after three of the four prior plays had been passes), Harbaugh again puts his faith in Colin Kapernick's arm, challenging one of the top cornerbacks in the league (or maybe the top cornerback)... the result was a tipped ball that resulted in an interception.Â
TMQ's Gregg Easterbrook questioned Harbaugh's play calling by writing:
Quote:TMQ took a lot of heat halfway through the season with a column saying San Francisco couldn't pass the ball. Then the Niners finished 30th in passing and in the NFC title game were held to 147 passing yards. The game concluded with San Francisco trying to throw into the right corner of the end zone -- exactly what San Francisco tried at the end of last year's Super Bowl -- and like in that Super Bowl, were unsuccessful. In both instances, the intended receiver was double-covered -- maybe defensive coordinators know something?
And, of course, Shaw took a lot of heat for calling the run play that ended our drive in the Rose Bowl. Was one of them right, and the other wrong. Were they both wrong? Could you have known that before the ball was snapped?
This brings us to the title of my post. Obviously, with the benefit of hindsight, we shouldn't have run between the tackles in the Rose Bowl, and Harbaugh shouldn't have called a pass against Sherman in the NFC championship. But we can only say that because we have the benefit of hindsight, and because our counterfactual -- that Shaw should have called a reverse or a pass or a bootleg or a read option or anything other than what he called (and that Harbaugh should have called a pass to Davis, or another receiver, or should have simply given the ball to Gore) -- is completely untestable. Maybe Shaw calls a pass to Ty Montgomery lined up against Dennard on an island and Dennard tips it in the end zone for a game sealing interception. Or Harbaugh gives the ball to Gore, who is stuffed on fourth down. Is there a sequence of play calls that would have led to victory for Stanford or the 49ers? Almost certainly (and probably a very large permutation of calls). Is that sequence knowable in advance? Absolutely not.
I'm not someone who believes coaches should all be above reproach. They are human. I certainly like to think about what play "ought to be called" in many situations, and yeah, a fullback dive was not what I would have called on fourth and 1 with 1:46 left and the game on the line. But I also am not so arrogant to think that the play I would have called in that situation (I was thinking a read option) would have worked any better, or that if it did, that some other play call I would have made in that drive would not have resulted in an interception or fumble or failed fourth down.
The fan in me is of course disappointed in the results. But the fan in me has also accepted the results and is ok acknowledging that MSU and the Seahawks earned their respective wins. Both the Rose Bowl and the NFC championship were incredibly entertaining games.
BC
