[needle]

Mack Brown picks Stanford to go to the title game, then lose to Florida State.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...redictions

Would be meaningless, except I wonder how often the former University of Texas coach talks to Akina?

[needle]

Mack Brown picks Stanford to go to the title game, then lose to Florida State.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...redictions

Would be meaningless, except I wonder how often the former University of Texas coach talks to Akina?

[Rally]

Look at all the people picking UCLA to be in the NCAA title game. I'm definitely checking to make sure there isn't a pod under my bed tonight.

I don't get the national love for UCLA.  good, dangerous team, and Mora is a good coach, but most of these articles seem to assume Hundley and Jack will carry them to glory.  I guess we'll see.

[Rally]

Look at all the people picking UCLA to be in the NCAA title game. I'm definitely checking to make sure there isn't a pod under my bed tonight.

I don't get the national love for UCLA.  good, dangerous team, and Mora is a good coach, but most of these articles seem to assume Hundley and Jack will carry them to glory.  I guess we'll see.

[stupac2]

I don't get the national love for UCLA.  good, dangerous team, and Mora is a good coach, but most of these articles seem to assume Hundley and Jack will carry them to glory.  I guess we'll see.

To go to the title game UCLA needs to beat both us and Oregon, one of them twice. They haven't managed to do that once, let alone 3 times. I get being bullish on them, but this bullish? It's really bizarre. I guess we'll see, maybe Hundley really is that good.

[stupac2]

I don't get the national love for UCLA.  good, dangerous team, and Mora is a good coach, but most of these articles seem to assume Hundley and Jack will carry them to glory.  I guess we'll see.

To go to the title game UCLA needs to beat both us and Oregon, one of them twice. They haven't managed to do that once, let alone 3 times. I get being bullish on them, but this bullish? It's really bizarre. I guess we'll see, maybe Hundley really is that good.

[needle]

Only four out of the 23 pickers don't have a Pac-12 team in the final four.

There's a very health respect for the conference nationally going into this year.

[needle]

Only four out of the 23 pickers don't have a Pac-12 team in the final four.

There's a very health respect for the conference nationally going into this year.

[Hank 91]

The other thing this points out is what a difficult road it is to win a national championship now, and how deserving the champion will be. If we just look at UCLA, whom Lee Corso and Desmond Howard tab as their champions, consider their path. As noted above, they'd have to play Oregon and Stanford in the regular season and then again, presumably, in the conference championship game. Then they'd have to beat two more elite teams -- say, Florida State and Alabama -- in the playoffs. If they can do that, they deserve that trophy.

[Hank 91]

The other thing this points out is what a difficult road it is to win a national championship now, and how deserving the champion will be. If we just look at UCLA, whom Lee Corso and Desmond Howard tab as their champions, consider their path. As noted above, they'd have to play Oregon and Stanford in the regular season and then again, presumably, in the conference championship game. Then they'd have to beat two more elite teams -- say, Florida State and Alabama -- in the playoffs. If they can do that, they deserve that trophy.

[martyup]

Only four out of the 23 pickers don't have a Pac-12 team in the final four.

There's a very health respect for the conference nationally going into this year.

True, but where is the respect for the back-to-back reining Pac-12 Champions?  Only 1 of the 23 picked Stanford to win the Pac-12.  Last year most of the pundits predicted that we would lose to Oregon, but we had them literally crying on the sideline in the 3rd quarter.  For how many years do we have to pound our Pac-12 opponents to earn a little respect?  It's okay, though, because this will give Shaw good fodder to fire up the team.

[martyup]

Only four out of the 23 pickers don't have a Pac-12 team in the final four.

There's a very health respect for the conference nationally going into this year.

True, but where is the respect for the back-to-back reining Pac-12 Champions?  Only 1 of the 23 picked Stanford to win the Pac-12.  Last year most of the pundits predicted that we would lose to Oregon, but we had them literally crying on the sideline in the 3rd quarter.  For how many years do we have to pound our Pac-12 opponents to earn a little respect?  It's okay, though, because this will give Shaw good fodder to fire up the team.

[oman]

I don't get the national love for UCLA.

Lots of people outside the state want to love UCLA.

1) They aren't USC.

2) They dress in a soft, pretty shade of blue.

3) They aren't USC.

[oman]

I don't get the national love for UCLA.

Lots of people outside the state want to love UCLA.

1) They aren't USC.

2) They dress in a soft, pretty shade of blue.

3) They aren't USC.

[Papa John]

I get the love for UCLA, but then again, I'm married to a Bruin.

Here's how it happens:
UO and Stanford lost their defensive coordinators and key players on defense.
Jim Mora is in that magical third year when everything is supposed to come together for a head coach.
UCLA has UO, U$C and Stanford at home.
UCLA has UVa, Texas, ASU, C.al, CU and UW on the road. Difficult, but not impossible.
Stanford has a murderer's row plus rivalry game for its road schedule.
So the assumption is that UCLA sweeps its home games, maybe loses once on the road (UW?) and wins at home in the Pac-12 title game versus UO.

The flaw with the above scenario? Stanford is underappreciated.

[Papa John]

I get the love for UCLA, but then again, I'm married to a Bruin.

Here's how it happens:
UO and Stanford lost their defensive coordinators and key players on defense.
Jim Mora is in that magical third year when everything is supposed to come together for a head coach.
UCLA has UO, U$C and Stanford at home.
UCLA has UVa, Texas, ASU, C.al, CU and UW on the road. Difficult, but not impossible.
Stanford has a murderer's row plus rivalry game for its road schedule.
So the assumption is that UCLA sweeps its home games, maybe loses once on the road (UW?) and wins at home in the Pac-12 title game versus UO.

The flaw with the above scenario? Stanford is underappreciated.

[IdCard83]

This "underappreciation" for Stanford makes D. Shaw look pretty prescient last week when asked to describe his team in one word.  If I were one of the team captains I would not have to feign indignation in the locker room  before every game at the apparent lack of respect for Stanford by the know it alls.  Wonder why R. Gilmore wasn't one of the 23.  Or Todd Blackledge for that matter.

[IdCard83]

This "underappreciation" for Stanford makes D. Shaw look pretty prescient last week when asked to describe his team in one word.  If I were one of the team captains I would not have to feign indignation in the locker room  before every game at the apparent lack of respect for Stanford by the know it alls.  Wonder why R. Gilmore wasn't one of the 23.  Or Todd Blackledge for that matter.

[SeattleTree]

[quote author=ferrari link=topic=10434.msg95248#msg95248 date=1409069871]I don't get the national love for UCLA.  good, dangerous team, and Mora is a good coach, but most of these articles seem to assume Hundley and Jack will carry them to glory.  I guess we'll see.

To go to the title game UCLA needs to beat both us and Oregon, one of them twice. They haven't managed to do that once, let alone 3 times. I get being bullish on them, but this bullish? It's really bizarre. I guess we'll see, maybe Hundley really is that good.
[/quote]

This.  So much this. 

[SeattleTree]

[quote author=ferrari link=topic=10434.msg95248#msg95248 date=1409069871]I don't get the national love for UCLA.  good, dangerous team, and Mora is a good coach, but most of these articles seem to assume Hundley and Jack will carry them to glory.  I guess we'll see.

To go to the title game UCLA needs to beat both us and Oregon, one of them twice. They haven't managed to do that once, let alone 3 times. I get being bullish on them, but this bullish? It's really bizarre. I guess we'll see, maybe Hundley really is that good.
[/quote]

This.  So much this. 

[fullmetal]

I don't see UCLA beating the Pac-12 north champion twice, though they have somewhat good odds to win the Pac-12 south.  ASU will have something to say about that though.

[fullmetal]

I don't see UCLA beating the Pac-12 north champion twice, though they have somewhat good odds to win the Pac-12 south.  ASU will have something to say about that though.

[French Rage]

If they can do that, they deserve that trophy.

This sentence alone, applied to any team from now on, sums up why the playoff will be better than the BCS.

[French Rage]

If they can do that, they deserve that trophy.

This sentence alone, applied to any team from now on, sums up why the playoff will be better than the BCS.

[CTcard]

Only four out of the 23 pickers don't have a Pac-12 team in the final four.

There's a very health respect for the conference nationally going into this year.

Counting ...

4 guys don't pick a Pac 12 team in the playoff.
6 guys don't pick a Big Ten team.
0 guys don't pick an ACC team.
0 guys don't pick an SEC team.
16 guys don't pick a Big 12 team.

Meanwhile 3 guys pick 2 SEC teams. Nobody picked more than 1 from any other conference.

It's a little tricky to figure out what constitutes respect for a conference, outside the obvious multiple picks from one conference.

The Pac 12 is in the middle of choices to not have a rep in the playoff. Maybe some of that is respect in the sense of "the league is too good so they'll knock each other off". Obviously that line of thinking would go hand in hand with not believing the committee is really going to put enough emphasis on strength of schedule to override record differential.
Or maybe it's simply the respect is above Big 12 and Bit 10 but below ACC and SEC.

Each of the guys picked an ACC team in the playoff, but each and everyone picked FSU. Even as the defending champ, that doesn't seem to constitute a lot of respect for the rest of the ACC.

Nobody picked a Big 10 champ and only 3 picked a Big 10 winner in the semifinals. That's not a ton of respect even though the numbers of guys picking no Big 10 team in the playoff is pretty close to the number not picking a Pac 12 team.

The other interesting "respect" or not issue, is that not a single person picked Ohio State to win the Big 10 now that they lost their QB. Apparently they never thought OSU was THAT far ahead of the rest of the league.

[CTcard]

Only four out of the 23 pickers don't have a Pac-12 team in the final four.

There's a very health respect for the conference nationally going into this year.

Counting ...

4 guys don't pick a Pac 12 team in the playoff.
6 guys don't pick a Big Ten team.
0 guys don't pick an ACC team.
0 guys don't pick an SEC team.
16 guys don't pick a Big 12 team.

Meanwhile 3 guys pick 2 SEC teams. Nobody picked more than 1 from any other conference.

It's a little tricky to figure out what constitutes respect for a conference, outside the obvious multiple picks from one conference.

The Pac 12 is in the middle of choices to not have a rep in the playoff. Maybe some of that is respect in the sense of "the league is too good so they'll knock each other off". Obviously that line of thinking would go hand in hand with not believing the committee is really going to put enough emphasis on strength of schedule to override record differential.
Or maybe it's simply the respect is above Big 12 and Bit 10 but below ACC and SEC.

Each of the guys picked an ACC team in the playoff, but each and everyone picked FSU. Even as the defending champ, that doesn't seem to constitute a lot of respect for the rest of the ACC.

Nobody picked a Big 10 champ and only 3 picked a Big 10 winner in the semifinals. That's not a ton of respect even though the numbers of guys picking no Big 10 team in the playoff is pretty close to the number not picking a Pac 12 team.

The other interesting "respect" or not issue, is that not a single person picked Ohio State to win the Big 10 now that they lost their QB. Apparently they never thought OSU was THAT far ahead of the rest of the league.

[PrinceLightfoot]

I don't see UCLA beating the Pac-12 north champion twice, though they have somewhat good odds to win the Pac-12 south.  ASU will have something to say about that though.

Agree that UCLA won't make it past the north champ twice. Here are Hundley's stats against Stanford and Oregon the last couple of years:

Hundley (2012 regular season) vs Stanford - 20/38 261 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 28.7 (0 rush yards, 8 attempts)

Hundley (2012 championship) vs Stanford - 23/31 177 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, QBR 60.5 (83 rush yards, 16 attempts)...game was played in a monsoon. This game was only close because James Franklin had a hell of a game.

Hundley (2013 regular season) vs Stanford - 24/39 192 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, QBR 34.7 (27 rush yards, 11 attempts)

Hundley (2013 regular season) vs Oregon - 13/19 64 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, QBR 43 (72 rush yards, 15 attempts)

What incredible level of improvement has Hundley had to garner such special attention? Did they suddenly gain a James Franklin type running back or perhaps Miles Jack is making a permanent move to RB? UCLA is overhyped.

ASU is overrated with their two returning defensive starters. Their offense will have to stay ahead of their opponents because I see little help coming from their defense. Hopefully, they are still ranked when we play them in Tempe.

[PrinceLightfoot]

I don't see UCLA beating the Pac-12 north champion twice, though they have somewhat good odds to win the Pac-12 south.  ASU will have something to say about that though.

Agree that UCLA won't make it past the north champ twice. Here are Hundley's stats against Stanford and Oregon the last couple of years:

Hundley (2012 regular season) vs Stanford - 20/38 261 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 28.7 (0 rush yards, 8 attempts)

Hundley (2012 championship) vs Stanford - 23/31 177 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, QBR 60.5 (83 rush yards, 16 attempts)...game was played in a monsoon. This game was only close because James Franklin had a hell of a game.

Hundley (2013 regular season) vs Stanford - 24/39 192 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, QBR 34.7 (27 rush yards, 11 attempts)

Hundley (2013 regular season) vs Oregon - 13/19 64 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, QBR 43 (72 rush yards, 15 attempts)

What incredible level of improvement has Hundley had to garner such special attention? Did they suddenly gain a James Franklin type running back or perhaps Miles Jack is making a permanent move to RB? UCLA is overhyped.

ASU is overrated with their two returning defensive starters. Their offense will have to stay ahead of their opponents because I see little help coming from their defense. Hopefully, they are still ranked when we play them in Tempe.

[teejers1]

Prince, I hope your take on UCLA being overhyped is right - but with decent OL play (it's been bad the past couple years), the Bruins could be a monster.

Also, not sure we watched the same 2012 conference championship game.  Stanford was very fortunate to escape that day with a W.  And the Bruins just torched that Cardinal defense, especially early.  I recall being shocked at how pedestrian the Bruins made the Stanford D look that day.

[teejers1]

Prince, I hope your take on UCLA being overhyped is right - but with decent OL play (it's been bad the past couple years), the Bruins could be a monster.

Also, not sure we watched the same 2012 conference championship game.  Stanford was very fortunate to escape that day with a W.  And the Bruins just torched that Cardinal defense, especially early.  I recall being shocked at how pedestrian the Bruins made the Stanford D look that day.

[Rally]

Prince, I hope your take on UCLA being overhyped is right - but with decent OL play (it's been bad the past couple years), the Bruins could be a monster.

Also, not sure we watched the same 2012 conference championship game.  Stanford was very fortunate to escape that day with a W.  And the Bruins just torched that Cardinal defense, especially early.  I recall being shocked at how pedestrian the Bruins made the Stanford D look that day.

True, but IMHO they basically had a buy the week before by not even trying against us, whereas we actually played hard.  Just sayin'

[Rally]

Prince, I hope your take on UCLA being overhyped is right - but with decent OL play (it's been bad the past couple years), the Bruins could be a monster.

Also, not sure we watched the same 2012 conference championship game.  Stanford was very fortunate to escape that day with a W.  And the Bruins just torched that Cardinal defense, especially early.  I recall being shocked at how pedestrian the Bruins made the Stanford D look that day.

True, but IMHO they basically had a buy the week before by not even trying against us, whereas we actually played hard.  Just sayin'

[OutsiderFan]

Prince, I hope your take on UCLA being overhyped is right - but with decent OL play (it's been bad the past couple years), the Bruins could be a monster.

Also, not sure we watched the same 2012 conference championship game.  Stanford was very fortunate to escape that day with a W.  And the Bruins just torched that Cardinal defense, especially early.  I recall being shocked at how pedestrian the Bruins made the Stanford D look that day.

David Lombardi had a very good analysis on this topic in one of his stories in the last week.  It pointed out how Stanford was torched on short passing to RBs by UCLA in the 2012 CG, and through the Utah game, and then how Stanford's D basically shut down that tactic after Utah.  Neither UCLA or ASU gained hardly anything with that tactic after the Utah loss.

I don't think the home-road thing is going to be that big of a deal for Stanford, and here's why:

Stanford has suffered brutal losses in its last four regular season defeats:  At UW and ND in 2012, at Utah and SC in 2013, all games Stanford really should have won, for various reasons.  The next step for the program is to win these big road contests.  David Shaw has been hammering his team about playing on the road, leading up to this season.  They know they have tough road games, but they also know if they win them, they have a chance to get to the playoff.  They also have a strong defense and special teams, plus an experienced QB who by accounts has become better, as both a passer and team leader.  Plus, the receivers, who will be relied on to make the big plays, have a lot of experience.

Stanford also has more margin for error than any team in the country as well, because nobody seems to have a tougher schedule.

The scary thing for Stanford is losing to Oregon because that is the tie-breaker to get into the CG, which seems to be a prerequisite for earning a playoff berth.  It sure would suck to go 11-1 and miss the playoff with a schedule tougher than anyone's, because basically Oregon refused to lose to Stanford 3x in a row.

[OutsiderFan]

Prince, I hope your take on UCLA being overhyped is right - but with decent OL play (it's been bad the past couple years), the Bruins could be a monster.

Also, not sure we watched the same 2012 conference championship game.  Stanford was very fortunate to escape that day with a W.  And the Bruins just torched that Cardinal defense, especially early.  I recall being shocked at how pedestrian the Bruins made the Stanford D look that day.

David Lombardi had a very good analysis on this topic in one of his stories in the last week.  It pointed out how Stanford was torched on short passing to RBs by UCLA in the 2012 CG, and through the Utah game, and then how Stanford's D basically shut down that tactic after Utah.  Neither UCLA or ASU gained hardly anything with that tactic after the Utah loss.

I don't think the home-road thing is going to be that big of a deal for Stanford, and here's why:

Stanford has suffered brutal losses in its last four regular season defeats:  At UW and ND in 2012, at Utah and SC in 2013, all games Stanford really should have won, for various reasons.  The next step for the program is to win these big road contests.  David Shaw has been hammering his team about playing on the road, leading up to this season.  They know they have tough road games, but they also know if they win them, they have a chance to get to the playoff.  They also have a strong defense and special teams, plus an experienced QB who by accounts has become better, as both a passer and team leader.  Plus, the receivers, who will be relied on to make the big plays, have a lot of experience.

Stanford also has more margin for error than any team in the country as well, because nobody seems to have a tougher schedule.

The scary thing for Stanford is losing to Oregon because that is the tie-breaker to get into the CG, which seems to be a prerequisite for earning a playoff berth.  It sure would suck to go 11-1 and miss the playoff with a schedule tougher than anyone's, because basically Oregon refused to lose to Stanford 3x in a row.

[fullmetal]

But that's the long and the short of it.  Whoever wins the Oregon-Stanford game will have definitely proved to the nation that they deserve a playoff spot--if the rest of the winner's record shows the same.  Some schools will have cupcake schedules to the playoffs (cough, FSU, cough), but it should be expected that a playoff team earned that berth through quality wins.

[fullmetal]

But that's the long and the short of it.  Whoever wins the Oregon-Stanford game will have definitely proved to the nation that they deserve a playoff spot--if the rest of the winner's record shows the same.  Some schools will have cupcake schedules to the playoffs (cough, FSU, cough), but it should be expected that a playoff team earned that berth through quality wins.

[CTcard]

Some schools will have cupcake schedules to the playoffs (cough, FSU, cough), but it should be expected that a playoff team earned that berth through quality wins.

Actually, FSU's schedule is tougher than I would have expected, and tougher than usual.

Oklahoma State (in Dallas)
Citadel
Clemson
@ NC State
Wake Forest
@ Syracuse
Notre Dame
@ Louisville
Virginia
@ Miami
Boston College
Florida

That's a non-conference slate of Oklahoma State, Citadel, Notre Dame, and Florida. Three out of four are presumably real games even though OSU looks to be down this year and who knows if Florida will be better than last year's disaster. I also don't know how they managed to get only four road games despite having real teams as OOC opponents.

So, there are only two teams in there that are currently ranked, but that could be as many as 7 real games.

[CTcard]

Some schools will have cupcake schedules to the playoffs (cough, FSU, cough), but it should be expected that a playoff team earned that berth through quality wins.

Actually, FSU's schedule is tougher than I would have expected, and tougher than usual.

Oklahoma State (in Dallas)
Citadel
Clemson
@ NC State
Wake Forest
@ Syracuse
Notre Dame
@ Louisville
Virginia
@ Miami
Boston College
Florida

That's a non-conference slate of Oklahoma State, Citadel, Notre Dame, and Florida. Three out of four are presumably real games even though OSU looks to be down this year and who knows if Florida will be better than last year's disaster. I also don't know how they managed to get only four road games despite having real teams as OOC opponents.

So, there are only two teams in there that are currently ranked, but that could be as many as 7 real games.

[fullmetal]

FSU's schedule is extremely manageable and not as soft as "cupcake" would imply.  Thanks for the correction...OSU in Dallas will be a home game for the Pokes, but FSU should roll them anyway.  I'm not impressed by ND yet, and UF hasn't shown anything yet either.  Louisville could give them a game, but after the departure of Bridgewater and Coach Strong, I'm thinking they get beat.

[fullmetal]

FSU's schedule is extremely manageable and not as soft as "cupcake" would imply.  Thanks for the correction...OSU in Dallas will be a home game for the Pokes, but FSU should roll them anyway.  I'm not impressed by ND yet, and UF hasn't shown anything yet either.  Louisville could give them a game, but after the departure of Bridgewater and Coach Strong, I'm thinking they get beat.