[CTcard]

I too have been watching the Duck's games, their highly touted secondary strikes me as over rated, and they are using more power runs that play to Stanford's strength.

I don't think that is Stanford's strength, particularly this year.
I am not so extreme on this issue as our friend Mr. Wilner, who claims that no team with the word "Raid" in their offensive nickname has a chance vs Stanford and mirror image teams kill us - but I do think he has a bit of a point there.
See recent performances vs WSU, Cal, ASU last year, compared to S.-C., Utah, und, MSU.

Assuming that either Parry plays effectively or Phillips steps up and fills in well, and that Hogan and the Oline plays well (but not perfectly), then I think we win comfortably.  If either of those assumptions don't hold, then I think we lose. 

That strikes me as a pretty fine line between winning comfortably and losing - though I suppose there is a lot of room within "Hogan and the Oline plays well".

Though overall your observations of the duckies pretty much match mine.

My biggest worry on this game is that we have developed a tendency to play much worse on the road. At home, we played well vs WSU, OSU, and perfectly fine vs Army, Davis. And except for that nasty red zone bit, actually played quite well vs S.-C. On the road we stunk it up vs ASU, mostly vs und, and were better but far from spectacular vs UW.
Can we actually put together a decent performance in Autzen?

EDIT - Uh Oh.
Wilner picks Stanford - straight up.
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegespor...divisions/

This despite the fact that he rates Oregon #1 and Stanford #6 in his personal conference ranking. I guess that's okay - matchups and all - but certainly an interesting mix.
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegespor...y-arrives/

[CTcard]

I too have been watching the Duck's games, their highly touted secondary strikes me as over rated, and they are using more power runs that play to Stanford's strength.

I don't think that is Stanford's strength, particularly this year.
I am not so extreme on this issue as our friend Mr. Wilner, who claims that no team with the word "Raid" in their offensive nickname has a chance vs Stanford and mirror image teams kill us - but I do think he has a bit of a point there.
See recent performances vs WSU, Cal, ASU last year, compared to S.-C., Utah, und, MSU.

Assuming that either Parry plays effectively or Phillips steps up and fills in well, and that Hogan and the Oline plays well (but not perfectly), then I think we win comfortably.  If either of those assumptions don't hold, then I think we lose. 

That strikes me as a pretty fine line between winning comfortably and losing - though I suppose there is a lot of room within "Hogan and the Oline plays well".

Though overall your observations of the duckies pretty much match mine.

My biggest worry on this game is that we have developed a tendency to play much worse on the road. At home, we played well vs WSU, OSU, and perfectly fine vs Army, Davis. And except for that nasty red zone bit, actually played quite well vs S.-C. On the road we stunk it up vs ASU, mostly vs und, and were better but far from spectacular vs UW.
Can we actually put together a decent performance in Autzen?

EDIT - Uh Oh.
Wilner picks Stanford - straight up.
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegespor...divisions/

This despite the fact that he rates Oregon #1 and Stanford #6 in his personal conference ranking. I guess that's okay - matchups and all - but certainly an interesting mix.
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegespor...y-arrives/

[Sea Loon]

Stanford 27
Oregon 21

[Sea Loon]

Stanford 27
Oregon 21

[CowboyIndian]

[CowboyIndian]

[81alum]

Stanford 27
Oregon 24

[81alum]

Stanford 27
Oregon 24

[czaja]

Stanford 28
Ducks 21

[czaja]

Stanford 28
Ducks 21

[FarmBoy]

Wilner picks Stanford to win. Again. http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegespor...divisions/

For all the hate many hear think he has for us, he sure has a lot of faith.

[FarmBoy]

Wilner picks Stanford to win. Again. http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegespor...divisions/

For all the hate many hear think he has for us, he sure has a lot of faith.

[needle]

Under-appreciated 31
Under half their season avg. in points scored 21

Oregon's offense piles up yards but Stanford's defense forces some untimely turnovers. Rector and Pratt combine for 10 catches and Kelsey Young has 100 yards running plus receiving as the Stanford offense relies on quick throws to churn out yards in clock-melting drives.

Edit: No, I'm not sure exactly what an "untimely turnover" is either. But you already knew I don't know what I'm talking about...

[needle]

Under-appreciated 31
Under half their season avg. in points scored 21

Oregon's offense piles up yards but Stanford's defense forces some untimely turnovers. Rector and Pratt combine for 10 catches and Kelsey Young has 100 yards running plus receiving as the Stanford offense relies on quick throws to churn out yards in clock-melting drives.

Edit: No, I'm not sure exactly what an "untimely turnover" is either. But you already knew I don't know what I'm talking about...

[2 for 2028]

Stanford 27
Oregon 26

[2 for 2028]

Stanford 27
Oregon 26

[CTcard]

Wilner picks Stanford to win. Again. http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegespor...divisions/

For all the hate many hear think he has for us, he sure has a lot of faith.

I kind of like Wilner. But to be clear, what he has a lot of faith in is the theories he dreams up.

His theory on Stanford remains: Stanford is a good matchup versus spread teams and a terrible match up versus strong defense/strong running game teams - roughly that we cannot play against our own mirror image. He has started to wonder if Stanford changing their offense will mean they have different tendencies (losing to ASU, pummeling OSU after close games recently), but seems to still like this approach.

His secondary theory is that you can best predict things by looking at trends - though exactly what trends can be spotty. Mostly he had been predicting the same as happened previously. So he predicted we'd handily beat WSU (good) and ASU (whoops). He also predicts we'll lose to Utah. 

Both seem to be reasonable ideas, but not necessarily something to be religiously devoted. 

[CTcard]

Wilner picks Stanford to win. Again. http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegespor...divisions/

For all the hate many hear think he has for us, he sure has a lot of faith.

I kind of like Wilner. But to be clear, what he has a lot of faith in is the theories he dreams up.

His theory on Stanford remains: Stanford is a good matchup versus spread teams and a terrible match up versus strong defense/strong running game teams - roughly that we cannot play against our own mirror image. He has started to wonder if Stanford changing their offense will mean they have different tendencies (losing to ASU, pummeling OSU after close games recently), but seems to still like this approach.

His secondary theory is that you can best predict things by looking at trends - though exactly what trends can be spotty. Mostly he had been predicting the same as happened previously. So he predicted we'd handily beat WSU (good) and ASU (whoops). He also predicts we'll lose to Utah. 

Both seem to be reasonable ideas, but not necessarily something to be religiously devoted. 

[JohnR34231]

Wilner wants to know what's different about this year from 2012 and 2013.

What I see:

2012. We caught the Ducks taking us a little too lightly.After all they had beaten us relatively easily in the last two years when we had Andrew Luck and we no longer had him. Also they had been blowing out teams that we had struggled with or lost to. A good example was DAT not bothering to make a block that would have allowed MM to score early and might have changed the complexion of the game.

2013.  We caught the Ducks with MM at less than 100% due to a knee injury, Shaw even commented that he was surprised to see Marcus not making plays that he was normally able to make.

This year we've got a 100% MM (as far as I know) and a Duck team clamoring for revenge. We are also banged up defensively. Not saying this all necessarily means we are going to lose, but I do think circumstances are different this year than they were the last two.

[JohnR34231]

Wilner wants to know what's different about this year from 2012 and 2013.

What I see:

2012. We caught the Ducks taking us a little too lightly.After all they had beaten us relatively easily in the last two years when we had Andrew Luck and we no longer had him. Also they had been blowing out teams that we had struggled with or lost to. A good example was DAT not bothering to make a block that would have allowed MM to score early and might have changed the complexion of the game.

2013.  We caught the Ducks with MM at less than 100% due to a knee injury, Shaw even commented that he was surprised to see Marcus not making plays that he was normally able to make.

This year we've got a 100% MM (as far as I know) and a Duck team clamoring for revenge. We are also banged up defensively. Not saying this all necessarily means we are going to lose, but I do think circumstances are different this year than they were the last two.

[MSmith23]

Stanford 31
Oregon 30

[MSmith23]

Stanford 31
Oregon 30

[martyup]

Look at our record on the first weekend of November.  Ducks are cooked.

Cardinal 26
Other 21

[martyup]

Look at our record on the first weekend of November.  Ducks are cooked.

Cardinal 26
Other 21

[CornFed]

S - 21
O - 20

[CornFed]

S - 21
O - 20

[shinsengumi]

This Stanford offense is so unpredictable - if it's firing on all cylinders I can see a blowout win over Oregon.

Unfortunately, nothing that we have done on the road or versus top 25 opposition inspires much confidence. I hope I am wrong.

Oregon: 28
Stanford: 23

[shinsengumi]

This Stanford offense is so unpredictable - if it's firing on all cylinders I can see a blowout win over Oregon.

Unfortunately, nothing that we have done on the road or versus top 25 opposition inspires much confidence. I hope I am wrong.

Oregon: 28
Stanford: 23

[Hulk01]

I don't get the "seeking revenge" argument, and never have.  But the theory seems to be supported when the revenge-seeker--which is seeking revenge from an upset the year before--manages to win the next year, when again it's the favorite. 

Wasn't Oregon seeking revenge against us last year?  Weren't we seeking revenge against USC this year?  And is there anyone here who likes our chances against Utah because we will be seeking revenge? 

And Oregon needs some added motivation to win?  Or is some added motivation just more pressure added to helping MM win the Voldemort and keep Oregon in the playoff race? 

[Hulk01]

I don't get the "seeking revenge" argument, and never have.  But the theory seems to be supported when the revenge-seeker--which is seeking revenge from an upset the year before--manages to win the next year, when again it's the favorite. 

Wasn't Oregon seeking revenge against us last year?  Weren't we seeking revenge against USC this year?  And is there anyone here who likes our chances against Utah because we will be seeking revenge? 

And Oregon needs some added motivation to win?  Or is some added motivation just more pressure added to helping MM win the Voldemort and keep Oregon in the playoff race? 

[oman]

Stanford 49
UofO - 27

[oman]

Stanford 49
UofO - 27

[Hank 91]

Stanford 20, Oregon 17.

[Hank 91]

Stanford 20, Oregon 17.

[CTcard]

Wilner wants to know what's different about this year from 2012 and 2013.

What I see:

2012. We caught the Ducks taking us a little too lightly.After all they had beaten us relatively easily in the last two years when we had Andrew Luck and we no longer had him. Also they had been blowing out teams that we had struggled with or lost to. A good example was DAT not bothering to make a block that would have allowed MM to score early and might have changed the complexion of the game.

Oregon looked pretty charged up for that game to me. We'd been the top two teams in the conference for 2.5 years at that point. DAT never blocked anyone, don't know why you'd expect him to there.

And that counters the Oregon story-line, where the problem is that they were too amped up for the game the past two years.

2013.  We caught the Ducks with MM at less than 100% due to a knee injury, Shaw even commented that he was surprised to see Marcus not making plays that he was normally able to make.

That was the post-facto duck storyline.
I have watched that game many times. Mariotta looked pretty mobile to me until he started getting crushed by the Stanford defense. Many times he ran away from the rush and then was able to throw (not always caught). He also had a nice run to complete a fourth and 8.
[/quote]

I think that what is really different about this year is first and foremost that Stanford has not yet shown they can put together a decent performance on the road, Stanford has a host of "mistake" problems on offense (to use Hulk's phrase), the Oregon offense is probably even better as Mariota is in his third year and now fairly clearly the best player in the country. Those all point towards the duckies.

[CTcard]

Wilner wants to know what's different about this year from 2012 and 2013.

What I see:

2012. We caught the Ducks taking us a little too lightly.After all they had beaten us relatively easily in the last two years when we had Andrew Luck and we no longer had him. Also they had been blowing out teams that we had struggled with or lost to. A good example was DAT not bothering to make a block that would have allowed MM to score early and might have changed the complexion of the game.

Oregon looked pretty charged up for that game to me. We'd been the top two teams in the conference for 2.5 years at that point. DAT never blocked anyone, don't know why you'd expect him to there.

And that counters the Oregon story-line, where the problem is that they were too amped up for the game the past two years.

2013.  We caught the Ducks with MM at less than 100% due to a knee injury, Shaw even commented that he was surprised to see Marcus not making plays that he was normally able to make.

That was the post-facto duck storyline.
I have watched that game many times. Mariotta looked pretty mobile to me until he started getting crushed by the Stanford defense. Many times he ran away from the rush and then was able to throw (not always caught). He also had a nice run to complete a fourth and 8.
[/quote]

I think that what is really different about this year is first and foremost that Stanford has not yet shown they can put together a decent performance on the road, Stanford has a host of "mistake" problems on offense (to use Hulk's phrase), the Oregon offense is probably even better as Mariota is in his third year and now fairly clearly the best player in the country. Those all point towards the duckies.

[Hey]

I'm still waiting for Stanford to wake up against a ranked team.  I was certain they would the previous three times and was disheartened.  This is our toughest opponent yet.  So......

Cardinal 21
Quacks 31

[Hey]

I'm still waiting for Stanford to wake up against a ranked team.  I was certain they would the previous three times and was disheartened.  This is our toughest opponent yet.  So......

Cardinal 21
Quacks 31

[Extra Point]

Stanford 20  Oregon 17

[Extra Point]

Stanford 20  Oregon 17