(12-29-2014, 02:03 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:Good points, WIM, but let's remember Nick Saban coached two other Big5 teams. In 5 seasons at Michigan State, he took a team that had gone 0-11 in 1994, and took them to a Bowl game in his first year there. He went 34-24-1, and led Michigan State to the Citrus Bowl in 1999, finishing 9-2.
At LSU, he had inherited a team that had gone 2-8 (0-7 in the SEC) the prior year, and took them to a bowl game as well. He had two top-10, seasons, including the 2003 National Championship, and went to a bowl game all 5 years he was there.
So.... here's my thinking here. My belief is predicated on two things, though I'll admit they're totally counterfactual and unprovable either way.
1) MSU is a strong example, but I think football has changed dramatically schematically since then. I'm not sure Saban's preferred pro-style approach on offense, and his complicated defensive schemes, work outside the context of top, top-tier NFL talent. It's not a dominant strategy, basically, but it works really, really well for its niche.
2) LSU is interesting as well. But while the program had fallen on tough times, Louisiana's a great state for football prospects -- number one per capita in sending players to the NFL, I believe. And I think time, also, is a factor.
But again, totally unprovable and speculative. If I were Illinois's AD and I could somehow get Nick Saban, I wouldn't let my suspicions get the better of me. (But I might prefer Urban Meyer.)