[washingtonismoney]

WIM, you are absolutely right, of course.  But it turns out that if you are trying to maximize your chance of winning, you should go for the higher beta (I'm using beta in the financial sense, to mean risk) strategy with an inferior team, and the lower beta strategy with superior teams.

No question about it. But the psychology is tough for people to overcome -- even among people who know better. (This is your periodic plug for Thinking Fast and Slow)

[washingtonismoney]

WIM, you are absolutely right, of course.  But it turns out that if you are trying to maximize your chance of winning, you should go for the higher beta (I'm using beta in the financial sense, to mean risk) strategy with an inferior team, and the lower beta strategy with superior teams.

No question about it. But the psychology is tough for people to overcome -- even among people who know better. (This is your periodic plug for Thinking Fast and Slow)

[stupac2]

But it seems really odd to me that Petersen wouldn't get that. He was the master of taking calculated risks at BSU, why change now that he's at Washington? It seemed like he had the "David Strategy" thing down pat, so why abandon it now? It's not like anyone expected Washington to be a Goliath this year.

[stupac2]

But it seems really odd to me that Petersen wouldn't get that. He was the master of taking calculated risks at BSU, why change now that he's at Washington? It seemed like he had the "David Strategy" thing down pat, so why abandon it now? It's not like anyone expected Washington to be a Goliath this year.

[BostonCard]

In 2001, after three successful seasons at Boise State Dirk Koetter was hired by the Arizona State Sun Devils.  Here are his records before and after:
1998 (BSU): 6-5
1999 (BSU): 10-3 (Humanitarian Bowl win)
2000 (BSU): 10-2 (Humanitarian Bowl win)
overall: 26-10, 2-0 in bowls
-------
2001 (ASU): 4-7
2002 (ASU): 8-6 (Holiday Bowl loss)
2003 (ASU): 5-7
2004 (ASU): 9-3 (Sun Bowl win) final rank (coaches/AP) 20/19
2005 (ASU): 7-5 (Insight Bowl win)
2006 (ASU): 7-6 (Hawaii Bowl loss)
overall: 40-34 (2-2 in bowls in 6 years, 1 ranked team)

Koetter was fired after the 2006 season after an "meh" stint at ASU.

Dan Hawkins took over for Dirk Koetter as head coach in 2001 (he had previously been an assistant there).  He coached for five years, and then was hired as head coach for the Colorado Buffaloes.
2001 (BSU): 8-4
2002 (BSU): 12-1 (Humanitarian Bowl Win) final rank 12/15
2003 (BSU): 13-1 (Fort Worth Bowl Win) final rank 15/16
2004 (BSU): 11-1 (Liberty Bowl loss) final rank 13/12
2005 (BSU): 9-4 (MPC Computers loss)
overall: 53-11 (2-2 in bowl games, 3 ranked teams)
----
2006 (CU): 2-10
2007 (CU): 6-7 (Independence Bowl loss)
2008 (CU): 5-7
2009 (CU): 3-9
2010 (CU): 3-6
overall: 19-39 (0-1 in bowl games)
Hawkins was fired in the midst of the 2010 season.

Petersen took over for Hawkins at Boise State in 2006, where he coached for 8 years before being hired away by Washington.  Under Petersen, the Broncos went 92-12 (5-2 in bowl games, including 2 BCS bowl wins), and were ranked at the end of every year except his second, finishing 4th in the coaches and AP polls after their Fiesta Bowl win in 2009.

Obviously, it has only been one year at UW, too soon to draw any conclusions.  However, his relative underperformance at UW, coupled with BSU's Fiesta Bowl win does make one wonder if he is fated to follow in the footsteps of Koetter and Hawkins, who excelled at Boise State, but faltered when they went to a Big5 conference team.

Bryan Harsin, Petersen's replacement at Boise State is 12-2 in his first year there, including a Fiesta Bowl win.

BC

[BostonCard]

In 2001, after three successful seasons at Boise State Dirk Koetter was hired by the Arizona State Sun Devils.  Here are his records before and after:
1998 (BSU): 6-5
1999 (BSU): 10-3 (Humanitarian Bowl win)
2000 (BSU): 10-2 (Humanitarian Bowl win)
overall: 26-10, 2-0 in bowls
-------
2001 (ASU): 4-7
2002 (ASU): 8-6 (Holiday Bowl loss)
2003 (ASU): 5-7
2004 (ASU): 9-3 (Sun Bowl win) final rank (coaches/AP) 20/19
2005 (ASU): 7-5 (Insight Bowl win)
2006 (ASU): 7-6 (Hawaii Bowl loss)
overall: 40-34 (2-2 in bowls in 6 years, 1 ranked team)

Koetter was fired after the 2006 season after an "meh" stint at ASU.

Dan Hawkins took over for Dirk Koetter as head coach in 2001 (he had previously been an assistant there).  He coached for five years, and then was hired as head coach for the Colorado Buffaloes.
2001 (BSU): 8-4
2002 (BSU): 12-1 (Humanitarian Bowl Win) final rank 12/15
2003 (BSU): 13-1 (Fort Worth Bowl Win) final rank 15/16
2004 (BSU): 11-1 (Liberty Bowl loss) final rank 13/12
2005 (BSU): 9-4 (MPC Computers loss)
overall: 53-11 (2-2 in bowl games, 3 ranked teams)
----
2006 (CU): 2-10
2007 (CU): 6-7 (Independence Bowl loss)
2008 (CU): 5-7
2009 (CU): 3-9
2010 (CU): 3-6
overall: 19-39 (0-1 in bowl games)
Hawkins was fired in the midst of the 2010 season.

Petersen took over for Hawkins at Boise State in 2006, where he coached for 8 years before being hired away by Washington.  Under Petersen, the Broncos went 92-12 (5-2 in bowl games, including 2 BCS bowl wins), and were ranked at the end of every year except his second, finishing 4th in the coaches and AP polls after their Fiesta Bowl win in 2009.

Obviously, it has only been one year at UW, too soon to draw any conclusions.  However, his relative underperformance at UW, coupled with BSU's Fiesta Bowl win does make one wonder if he is fated to follow in the footsteps of Koetter and Hawkins, who excelled at Boise State, but faltered when they went to a Big5 conference team.

Bryan Harsin, Petersen's replacement at Boise State is 12-2 in his first year there, including a Fiesta Bowl win.

BC

[washingtonismoney]

That idea -- that Boise State coaches underperform -- been bandied around a lot and I've always felt it's silly, for a few reasons:
1. Two coaches failing is no trend at all, especially since a pretty large percentage of coaching hires are assessed, in retrospect, to be failures.
2. Petersen had a much richer record than either Hawkins or Koetter. He won more, and for more years, than either of them. He's likely a better coach!

And of course if Petersen fails, it's not necessarily a judgment on him. (A really negative judgment, that is.) As Rich Rodriguez can tell you, coaching success and failure is heavily influenced by environment and factors outside of your control. Petersen failing against a division with Helfrich, Shaw, Andersen, Leach and, uh, that guy who coaches the 59ers is much different than Koetter struggling to dispatch a pretty mediocre Pac-10 at the time.

[washingtonismoney]

That idea -- that Boise State coaches underperform -- been bandied around a lot and I've always felt it's silly, for a few reasons:
1. Two coaches failing is no trend at all, especially since a pretty large percentage of coaching hires are assessed, in retrospect, to be failures.
2. Petersen had a much richer record than either Hawkins or Koetter. He won more, and for more years, than either of them. He's likely a better coach!

And of course if Petersen fails, it's not necessarily a judgment on him. (A really negative judgment, that is.) As Rich Rodriguez can tell you, coaching success and failure is heavily influenced by environment and factors outside of your control. Petersen failing against a division with Helfrich, Shaw, Andersen, Leach and, uh, that guy who coaches the 59ers is much different than Koetter struggling to dispatch a pretty mediocre Pac-10 at the time.