[81alum]

A plausible guess?

5 Kaylee Johnson, Shannon Coffee, Tess Picknell
4 Erica McCall, Alanna Smith, Kailee Johnson,
3 Karlie Samuelson, Brittany McPhee
2 Bri Roberson, Alexa Romano
1 Lili Thompson, Marta Sniezek

Alex Green injured?

At best, we will begin the year with 12 scholarship players healthy enough to play.  The sophomores and frosh are going to get a lot of time.  The team leaders will be McCall, Karlie, Lili, and Bri.

As tough as last year looked, this year looks tougher to me.  Tara got so much more out of her seniors last year than I expected she could--but this year we have only one senior--Tess.  To do as well this year as we did last (which was the worst season in 15+ years) the frosh are going to have to make even bigger contributions than they were able to make last year.  An injury to Lili, Karlie, Erica or Kaylee would be absolutely disastrous.

The good news is that all four incoming frosh seem on paper to be very capable and will have great opportunities for growth early in the season.  The way I can see the season turning out well would be if Alanna becomes a starter, Coffee gives us usable minutes and a defensive presence, and either Marta or Alexa or both prove to be excellent college level defenders who can also shoot.  Meanwhile, both Kaylee and McCall need to have picked up some new back-to-the-basket moves over the summer.  We will see.

[81alum]

A plausible guess?

5 Kaylee Johnson, Shannon Coffee, Tess Picknell
4 Erica McCall, Alanna Smith, Kailee Johnson,
3 Karlie Samuelson, Brittany McPhee
2 Bri Roberson, Alexa Romano
1 Lili Thompson, Marta Sniezek

Alex Green injured?

At best, we will begin the year with 12 scholarship players healthy enough to play.  The sophomores and frosh are going to get a lot of time.  The team leaders will be McCall, Karlie, Lili, and Bri.

As tough as last year looked, this year looks tougher to me.  Tara got so much more out of her seniors last year than I expected she could--but this year we have only one senior--Tess.  To do as well this year as we did last (which was the worst season in 15+ years) the frosh are going to have to make even bigger contributions than they were able to make last year.  An injury to Lili, Karlie, Erica or Kaylee would be absolutely disastrous.

The good news is that all four incoming frosh seem on paper to be very capable and will have great opportunities for growth early in the season.  The way I can see the season turning out well would be if Alanna becomes a starter, Coffee gives us usable minutes and a defensive presence, and either Marta or Alexa or both prove to be excellent college level defenders who can also shoot.  Meanwhile, both Kaylee and McCall need to have picked up some new back-to-the-basket moves over the summer.  We will see.

[TheFarm07]

If both Erica and Kaylee will be starting, certainly their offensive skills must improve over the summer.  We saw how difficult it was with one of them being largely a non-factor on the offensive end for a bulk of the season last year, thus having two of them just stand around when we are trying to score baskets will be particularly horrific.

We don't have much veteran depth, so having Alanna Smith, Sniezek and Romero ready to step into key minutes might be a necessity.  Hopefully the growing pains of last year and potentially this year will result in a much more experienced and fine tuned team in a year or two.

[TheFarm07]

If both Erica and Kaylee will be starting, certainly their offensive skills must improve over the summer.  We saw how difficult it was with one of them being largely a non-factor on the offensive end for a bulk of the season last year, thus having two of them just stand around when we are trying to score baskets will be particularly horrific.

We don't have much veteran depth, so having Alanna Smith, Sniezek and Romero ready to step into key minutes might be a necessity.  Hopefully the growing pains of last year and potentially this year will result in a much more experienced and fine tuned team in a year or two.

[81alum]

4-5 If Alanna is everything we hope she will be, I could almost imagine Tara figuring out a way to get Erica and Kaylee and Alanna in the game at the same time.  But the problem with that is that we would have very little depth behind them.  A healthy Kailee could make big strides, or Coffee could be a revelation, but at this point we have no reason to be overly optimistic.  So I'm inclined to think that it will be Bird/Kaylee/Alanna rotating through the 4 and 5 with Coffee and Kailee getting some minutes in easy games early in the season to prove themselves.  GOALS:  Bird and Kaylee must develop their offensive moves so they become more than secondary scorers.  Smith needs rapid all-around integration into the team both offensively and defensively.  Coffee has to prove her rebounding and defensive potential.

3 If she is completely healthy, it is hard to see Karlie not starting, and given the number of short, quick, speedy guards we will have, the only logical place for Karlie is at the 3 where she can help create space with her three point threat.  Brittany is logically also a wing, but she has to get better at the three point shot--she was reluctant to take them and shot them poorly last year (6/31).  McPhee was wonderfully aggressive about going to the rim, but that won't fulfill the needs of the position if she is moving into the teeth of bigger, physical posts.  GOALS:  Karlie has to get her groove back and show she can shoot the three with consistency coming off her injury.  McPhee needs to make her three point shot a real threat.

1-2 We have a surplus of speedy, short, point-guard types, so figuring out who will play at the shooting guard spot is not as easy as it sounds.  Alexa Romano comes in billed as a a shooting guard, although she is just 5'9".  Olson says one of her strengths is mid range.  Tara said that Alexa can play the 1 or the 2, which means just about all of our guards can.  Lili and Bri we know about--they both play the 1 or the 2.  And Marta, who I have high hopes for, is most experienced as a 1.  Whatever scheme we have really needs to take advantage of the fact that 4/4 of our healthy guards are all point guards (I'm calling Karlie a wing, instead.)  They are all short, so the entry-pass is going to be difficult against tall and long guards like 6' Sydney Wiese, or 6'2" Gabby Green, or 6'1" Diamond DeShields.  Remember when our shortest guard was 6'?  GOALS:  We need to figure out whether Lili is going to be the everyday point guard or play the 2 to maximize her offense.  Can Bri or Marta handle point guard duties?  It would be unusual for Tara to start a frosh point guard, but Lili's offense seemed to wear down a little as the season went on, and relying on her for absolutely everything seems like a bad strategy.

[81alum]

4-5 If Alanna is everything we hope she will be, I could almost imagine Tara figuring out a way to get Erica and Kaylee and Alanna in the game at the same time.  But the problem with that is that we would have very little depth behind them.  A healthy Kailee could make big strides, or Coffee could be a revelation, but at this point we have no reason to be overly optimistic.  So I'm inclined to think that it will be Bird/Kaylee/Alanna rotating through the 4 and 5 with Coffee and Kailee getting some minutes in easy games early in the season to prove themselves.  GOALS:  Bird and Kaylee must develop their offensive moves so they become more than secondary scorers.  Smith needs rapid all-around integration into the team both offensively and defensively.  Coffee has to prove her rebounding and defensive potential.

3 If she is completely healthy, it is hard to see Karlie not starting, and given the number of short, quick, speedy guards we will have, the only logical place for Karlie is at the 3 where she can help create space with her three point threat.  Brittany is logically also a wing, but she has to get better at the three point shot--she was reluctant to take them and shot them poorly last year (6/31).  McPhee was wonderfully aggressive about going to the rim, but that won't fulfill the needs of the position if she is moving into the teeth of bigger, physical posts.  GOALS:  Karlie has to get her groove back and show she can shoot the three with consistency coming off her injury.  McPhee needs to make her three point shot a real threat.

1-2 We have a surplus of speedy, short, point-guard types, so figuring out who will play at the shooting guard spot is not as easy as it sounds.  Alexa Romano comes in billed as a a shooting guard, although she is just 5'9".  Olson says one of her strengths is mid range.  Tara said that Alexa can play the 1 or the 2, which means just about all of our guards can.  Lili and Bri we know about--they both play the 1 or the 2.  And Marta, who I have high hopes for, is most experienced as a 1.  Whatever scheme we have really needs to take advantage of the fact that 4/4 of our healthy guards are all point guards (I'm calling Karlie a wing, instead.)  They are all short, so the entry-pass is going to be difficult against tall and long guards like 6' Sydney Wiese, or 6'2" Gabby Green, or 6'1" Diamond DeShields.  Remember when our shortest guard was 6'?  GOALS:  We need to figure out whether Lili is going to be the everyday point guard or play the 2 to maximize her offense.  Can Bri or Marta handle point guard duties?  It would be unusual for Tara to start a frosh point guard, but Lili's offense seemed to wear down a little as the season went on, and relying on her for absolutely everything seems like a bad strategy.

[TheFarm07]

As one commentator pointed out last year, Lili had a lot of up and down games.  She would have games where she scored a bunch, but then had days where she couldn't make a basket even if it was ten feet wide.  She and Amber shouldered not just a lot of scoring, but offensive playmaking as well.  With Amber graduated, the goal is to distribute the offense more evenly and so Lili won't feel like she has to do everything.

Out of all of the returning players, she has had the most proven and consistent history of scoring and without anyone else really having that history of being another day in and day out scorer, Lili might feel the need to do everything and we can't let that happen if we want to reclaim the Pac-12 regular season title and go deep in the NCAA tournament.  Other players must step up and early, even if it's against a Boston College or another easy opponent, to show that they can score and set the consistency that was lacking last year.

[TheFarm07]

As one commentator pointed out last year, Lili had a lot of up and down games.  She would have games where she scored a bunch, but then had days where she couldn't make a basket even if it was ten feet wide.  She and Amber shouldered not just a lot of scoring, but offensive playmaking as well.  With Amber graduated, the goal is to distribute the offense more evenly and so Lili won't feel like she has to do everything.

Out of all of the returning players, she has had the most proven and consistent history of scoring and without anyone else really having that history of being another day in and day out scorer, Lili might feel the need to do everything and we can't let that happen if we want to reclaim the Pac-12 regular season title and go deep in the NCAA tournament.  Other players must step up and early, even if it's against a Boston College or another easy opponent, to show that they can score and set the consistency that was lacking last year.

[BobK]

Interesting and great analysis. 
1.  Karlie and Kailee need to get healthy.  One can gather they aren't now or would be playing with eyeryone else in the ProAm.  Still 11 weeks to the first pratice. 


2.  The post players were not part of our offense until very late so therefore in my mind completely unfair too say McCall or Kaylee lack offensive skills.  McCall was chosen to a National team and I really doubt that was after showing little offensive skills.   


3.  Marta could be the PG but Alexa won't be. 


4.  I await jkass' thoughts and others who might see the 3 frosh this Saturday at the ProAm. 


5.  We are very young considering we won't play a Sr much.


6.  Lots of teams play 3 guards so having Karlie and Brittany at the 3 and sometimes the 2 mean little as far as height goes. 

[BobK]

Interesting and great analysis. 
1.  Karlie and Kailee need to get healthy.  One can gather they aren't now or would be playing with eyeryone else in the ProAm.  Still 11 weeks to the first pratice. 


2.  The post players were not part of our offense until very late so therefore in my mind completely unfair too say McCall or Kaylee lack offensive skills.  McCall was chosen to a National team and I really doubt that was after showing little offensive skills.   


3.  Marta could be the PG but Alexa won't be. 


4.  I await jkass' thoughts and others who might see the 3 frosh this Saturday at the ProAm. 


5.  We are very young considering we won't play a Sr much.


6.  Lots of teams play 3 guards so having Karlie and Brittany at the 3 and sometimes the 2 mean little as far as height goes. 

[Jskass]

thanks, I will report if possible after Saturday's games (Shannon and Marta on same team as Stallworth, Jefflo and Cowling; Tess vs. Kaylee and Brittany; Lili and Bri's team has a bye) - before heading to SFO for a prolonged trip East including summer weather and hopefully some NY Liberty games. Too bad Amber isn't there, but I'll get to watch the excitement named Brittany Boyd and maybe get to see Chiney in her street clothes.

IIRC, Kailee had an outside shot (more so than McCall) her freshman year while she was healthy - the TN game sticks in my mind for some reason. Can she play the 3 at all if/when she finally recovers? Amazing that we've gone from a ton of wings to two (Karlie and Brittany), both of whom have had their share of injuries.

[Jskass]

thanks, I will report if possible after Saturday's games (Shannon and Marta on same team as Stallworth, Jefflo and Cowling; Tess vs. Kaylee and Brittany; Lili and Bri's team has a bye) - before heading to SFO for a prolonged trip East including summer weather and hopefully some NY Liberty games. Too bad Amber isn't there, but I'll get to watch the excitement named Brittany Boyd and maybe get to see Chiney in her street clothes.

IIRC, Kailee had an outside shot (more so than McCall) her freshman year while she was healthy - the TN game sticks in my mind for some reason. Can she play the 3 at all if/when she finally recovers? Amazing that we've gone from a ton of wings to two (Karlie and Brittany), both of whom have had their share of injuries.

[BobK]

Remember Kailee started as a Frosh at the 3 and played well especially against Gonzaga with 11 points and 8 rebounds.    Then Bonnie and Taylor got healthy.

[BobK]

Remember Kailee started as a Frosh at the 3 and played well especially against Gonzaga with 11 points and 8 rebounds.    Then Bonnie and Taylor got healthy.

[BobK]

OK time to go out on a limb, Kailee Johnson was one of the best players I ever saw play travel and Stanford was recruiting.  We have watched her since the 8th grade.  If heathly we will all love her and she could well be the starter at the 3. 

[BobK]

OK time to go out on a limb, Kailee Johnson was one of the best players I ever saw play travel and Stanford was recruiting.  We have watched her since the 8th grade.  If heathly we will all love her and she could well be the starter at the 3. 

[Jskass]

now if we can just get them to fix what's ailing her. Sara James had the techno-boot and still never was herself. Has Kailee needed and had surgery? Interesting that she and Mercedes Russell played together and both had foot problems. (though I think their 2 other partners, Jordan Reynolds and Jaime Nared, both TN teammates with Russell, haven't)

[Jskass]

now if we can just get them to fix what's ailing her. Sara James had the techno-boot and still never was herself. Has Kailee needed and had surgery? Interesting that she and Mercedes Russell played together and both had foot problems. (though I think their 2 other partners, Jordan Reynolds and Jaime Nared, both TN teammates with Russell, haven't)

[81alum]

I would be delighted if Kailee came on strong.  I have noticed that there are basically three types of players at Stanford. 

1) A small number are gifted and mature in basketball even as frosh and play or even start for all four years.  Lili, Kaylee seem to fit that bill, as did the Ogwumikes, Kayla, Jeanette, etc. 

2)A few never seem to be able to make in-game contributions.  Tara acknowledges that they do help the team, sometimes substantially, in practice.  I'm afraid Tess may be fitting into this category.  E Payne, Jasmine Camp, Grace Mashore, Ashley Cimino, etc.

3) And then there are those like Ruef who improve substantially over their years and wind up being much, much better as seniors than they were as frosh.  Tinkle, Mel Murphy, Sara James, Bonnie, etc.  I think these are the players that had talent but it was very very rough to start, probably because they did not play against quality competition in high school or on the various USA teams and they need to relearn the game.  These are actually the kids that benefit the most from Tara, since they are educable and learn by being on the team.

I suppose there is a fourth category--kids who have constant injury issues and never are able to fulfill their potential.  Boy do I know about that in my own family.  Sara, Toni, Beebe, etc. had their careers cut short or hampered.  Here is hoping that Karli and Kailee escape that distinction.

I suspect Kailee fits into category 3.  Junior year would be a good time to excel.  Ruef did not really break through until her fourth year--after a redshirt year.

I am hoping that Alanna and Marta fit into category 1, simply because we need them so much!

[81alum]

I would be delighted if Kailee came on strong.  I have noticed that there are basically three types of players at Stanford. 

1) A small number are gifted and mature in basketball even as frosh and play or even start for all four years.  Lili, Kaylee seem to fit that bill, as did the Ogwumikes, Kayla, Jeanette, etc. 

2)A few never seem to be able to make in-game contributions.  Tara acknowledges that they do help the team, sometimes substantially, in practice.  I'm afraid Tess may be fitting into this category.  E Payne, Jasmine Camp, Grace Mashore, Ashley Cimino, etc.

3) And then there are those like Ruef who improve substantially over their years and wind up being much, much better as seniors than they were as frosh.  Tinkle, Mel Murphy, Sara James, Bonnie, etc.  I think these are the players that had talent but it was very very rough to start, probably because they did not play against quality competition in high school or on the various USA teams and they need to relearn the game.  These are actually the kids that benefit the most from Tara, since they are educable and learn by being on the team.

I suppose there is a fourth category--kids who have constant injury issues and never are able to fulfill their potential.  Boy do I know about that in my own family.  Sara, Toni, Beebe, etc. had their careers cut short or hampered.  Here is hoping that Karli and Kailee escape that distinction.

I suspect Kailee fits into category 3.  Junior year would be a good time to excel.  Ruef did not really break through until her fourth year--after a redshirt year.

I am hoping that Alanna and Marta fit into category 1, simply because we need them so much!

[CompSci87]

Didn't Ashley Cimino have lots of injury problems, too?

Yes, back problems.

[CompSci87]

Didn't Ashley Cimino have lots of injury problems, too?

Yes, back problems.