[Velodoc]

Costello, a career sub 60% passer, is completing 67% of his passes this season. Should the QB coach get any credit for this improvement?

I'll give him all the credit in the world - as a QB coach. Just like I gave Bloomgren credit as an OL coach. Problem is they were/are both not very good at OC.

I disagree.  There has been a steep drop off in QB development since Sanford moved on a few years ago.  I put all this season's passing prowess on KJ himself.  He deserves it, considering the poor quality of play-calling and, prior to OSU, being forced to pass while playing "catch-up." He has done well despite being set up to fail by coaching/play calling.  

Prichard needs to go to a JC or D3 school and learn how to coach.  We need to figure out a way to obtain a good, seasoned OC who can actually run the offense (assess it correctly and come up with viable game plans and be malleable enough to make intragame changes), and maybe, double as QB coach.  And figure out the Oline problem--players' attitudes? injuries? poor recruiting choices?  coaching?  

(There must be big budgetary constraints regarding our coaches.  No other explanation for the inexperience of OC/QB coach and OLine coach). 

Make these major changes and I'd expect a monster year from KJ next year.  I say next year because this has, IMO, been a "lost season" and put that squarely on the coaches.  And the buck (so to speak) stops with David Shaw.  

Obviously, I'm not a happy alum.

[Velodoc]

Costello, a career sub 60% passer, is completing 67% of his passes this season. Should the QB coach get any credit for this improvement?

I'll give him all the credit in the world - as a QB coach. Just like I gave Bloomgren credit as an OL coach. Problem is they were/are both not very good at OC.

I disagree.  There has been a steep drop off in QB development since Sanford moved on a few years ago.  I put all this season's passing prowess on KJ himself.  He deserves it, considering the poor quality of play-calling and, prior to OSU, being forced to pass while playing "catch-up." He has done well despite being set up to fail by coaching/play calling.  

Prichard needs to go to a JC or D3 school and learn how to coach.  We need to figure out a way to obtain a good, seasoned OC who can actually run the offense (assess it correctly and come up with viable game plans and be malleable enough to make intragame changes), and maybe, double as QB coach.  And figure out the Oline problem--players' attitudes? injuries? poor recruiting choices?  coaching?  

(There must be big budgetary constraints regarding our coaches.  No other explanation for the inexperience of OC/QB coach and OLine coach). 

Make these major changes and I'd expect a monster year from KJ next year.  I say next year because this has, IMO, been a "lost season" and put that squarely on the coaches.  And the buck (so to speak) stops with David Shaw.  

Obviously, I'm not a happy alum.

[CornFed]

"No other explanation for the inexperience of OC/QB coach and OLine coach)"

I thought Carberry came from the NFL.

[CornFed]

"No other explanation for the inexperience of OC/QB coach and OLine coach)"

I thought Carberry came from the NFL.

[BostonCard]

"No other explanation for the inexperience of OC/QB coach and OLine coach)"

I thought Carberry came from the NFL.

Carberry came from the NFL, but he was an offensive assistant there, not the OL coach.  He has never had primary position responsibility in his career, and despite spending time in the NFL, doesn't have a ton of experience.

BC

[BostonCard]

"No other explanation for the inexperience of OC/QB coach and OLine coach)"

I thought Carberry came from the NFL.

Carberry came from the NFL, but he was an offensive assistant there, not the OL coach.  He has never had primary position responsibility in his career, and despite spending time in the NFL, doesn't have a ton of experience.

BC

[cardcrimson]

"No other explanation for the inexperience of OC/QB coach and OLine coach)"

I thought Carberry came from the NFL.

Carberry came from the NFL, but he was an offensive assistant there, not the OL coach.  He has never had primary position responsibility in his career, and despite spending time in the NFL, doesn't have a ton of experience.

BC

I thought I read somewhere here months ago, that he had solid OL experience and his expertise was with pass blocking.

[cardcrimson]

"No other explanation for the inexperience of OC/QB coach and OLine coach)"

I thought Carberry came from the NFL.

Carberry came from the NFL, but he was an offensive assistant there, not the OL coach.  He has never had primary position responsibility in his career, and despite spending time in the NFL, doesn't have a ton of experience.

BC

I thought I read somewhere here months ago, that he had solid OL experience and his expertise was with pass blocking.

[82lsju]

I thought I read somewhere here months ago, that he had solid OL experience and his expertise was with pass blocking.

The Carberry File
 
Season  Program  Position
2007-08  St. Ignatius College Prep - Defensive Coordinator • Special Teams
2009-11  Kansas - Graduate Assistant
2012-13  Stephen F. Austin - Defensive Ends
2014-15  Dallas Cowboys - Offensive Assistant
2016-17  Washington Redskins - Assistant Offensive Line
2018  Stanford - Run Game Coordinator • Offensive Line

https://gostanford.com/staff.aspx?staff=751

[82lsju]

I thought I read somewhere here months ago, that he had solid OL experience and his expertise was with pass blocking.

The Carberry File
 
Season  Program  Position
2007-08  St. Ignatius College Prep - Defensive Coordinator • Special Teams
2009-11  Kansas - Graduate Assistant
2012-13  Stephen F. Austin - Defensive Ends
2014-15  Dallas Cowboys - Offensive Assistant
2016-17  Washington Redskins - Assistant Offensive Line
2018  Stanford - Run Game Coordinator • Offensive Line

https://gostanford.com/staff.aspx?staff=751

[BostonCard]

I disagree.  There has been a steep drop off in QB development since Sanford moved on a few years ago.  I put all this season's passing prowess on KJ himself.  He deserves it, considering the poor quality of play-calling and, prior to OSU, being forced to pass while playing "catch-up." He has done well despite being set up to fail by coaching/play calling.  

Prichard needs to go to a JC or D3 school and learn how to coach.  We need to figure out a way to obtain a good, seasoned OC who can actually run the offense (assess it correctly and come up with viable game plans and be malleable enough to make intragame changes), and maybe, double as QB coach.  And figure out the Oline problem--players' attitudes? injuries? poor recruiting choices?  coaching?  

(There must be big budgetary constraints regarding our coaches.  No other explanation for the inexperience of OC/QB coach and OLine coach). 

Make these major changes and I'd expect a monster year from KJ next year.  I say next year because this has, IMO, been a "lost season" and put that squarely on the coaches.  And the buck (so to speak) stops with David Shaw.  

Obviously, I'm not a happy alum.

So, it's heads I win and tails you lose.  In other words, if Costello has a nice season with improvement over the last year, it's all on Costello; while if he struggles, you can attribute it to the coaches.

There certainly is lots of scope for criticism of the offensive coaching staff.  The run game has been nothing short of awful this year, despite returning an all-American running back and an experienced and highly recruiting offensive line.  Others have noted this is a long-term trend, but it was really notable this year, with perhaps the worst running game in the Pac-12.  And I think it is perfectly reasonable to lay that one on the coaching staff writ large, starting with not recruiting enough depth at offensive line, the lack of development of highly promising linemen (Casey Tucker started as a freshman then fell back in the depth chart and ultimately graduate transferred to ASU; Herbig started as a freshman and his development stalled; Little started as a freshman and has regressed), and continued poor in game execution.  But if we are going to criticize the offensive coaching staff for failing to get the running game going, they do deserve praise for the development of Costello (and before him, Hogan).  If Costello had improved to being an above average QB (say a PER in the mid-140s, comparable to Jake Browning or Steve Montez) that would be the reasonably expected improvement from first to second year.  But Costello leads the league in pass efficiency, and I think it is perfectly reasonable to give the coaching staff their dues for his recruitment and development.

BC

---

Here’s a case where the stats can support whichever narrative you like.  We are near the bottom of the PAC-12 in total yards; only USC, UCLA, and Cal are worse.  On the other hand, we are second in the PAC-12 in yards per play.  My preferred stat, points per drive, had us 59th in the country before the OSU game (and excluding the Davis game).  We’ll improve after Saturday, but it’s still an average at best stat.

Neither yds/gm nor yds/play are particularly good measures of overall offensive effectiveness, as discussed over and over here.

Yds/gm within one game is quite meaningful, but over a season is not a good comparison between teams that try to run at different paces - and almost nobody tries to play at the slow pace of Stanford.
Yds/play will give bigger values for boom or bust type offenses over steady ball control offenses.
This year, these factors deflate Stanford's yds/gm numbers and inflate their yds/play numbers.

Stanford's offense right now is playing about as well as can be expected for a team that generally cannot run the ball. For the most part Stanford has been moving the ball since the Utah game - though along with the inconsistencies that come with a deep-ball, no-run-game offense.
Previous to that, Stanford's offense was often horrendous, making season to date averages inherently mixed.

FEI is "value" per drive adjusted for strength of opponent. On that score, Stanford was #39 in the country before the OSU game (it also does not count the Davis game as only FBS opponents are considered). That is also #5 in the Pac 12, with Stanford immediately behind Utah (4th in Pac 12, #38 in country). ASU is #2 in the Pac 12, which makes me think our defense's performance in that game really was quite good.

And it turns out that Stanford's defense is #56 in the country, #5 in the Pac 12 by FEI (again pre-OSU). That's not exactly great, but better than I would have thought.

And that's why I stated that my preferred stat is points per drive.  There are a few ways that the stat can be a bit misleading, because, for example, it doesn't capture starting field position, and the difference between an excellent field goal kicker and a poor one affects the PPD metric.  However, it is much easier to understand than FEI, and in the end, it is the most relevant one, since being able to score more than the opponent is pretty directly tied to winning games.

BC

[BostonCard]

I disagree.  There has been a steep drop off in QB development since Sanford moved on a few years ago.  I put all this season's passing prowess on KJ himself.  He deserves it, considering the poor quality of play-calling and, prior to OSU, being forced to pass while playing "catch-up." He has done well despite being set up to fail by coaching/play calling.  

Prichard needs to go to a JC or D3 school and learn how to coach.  We need to figure out a way to obtain a good, seasoned OC who can actually run the offense (assess it correctly and come up with viable game plans and be malleable enough to make intragame changes), and maybe, double as QB coach.  And figure out the Oline problem--players' attitudes? injuries? poor recruiting choices?  coaching?  

(There must be big budgetary constraints regarding our coaches.  No other explanation for the inexperience of OC/QB coach and OLine coach). 

Make these major changes and I'd expect a monster year from KJ next year.  I say next year because this has, IMO, been a "lost season" and put that squarely on the coaches.  And the buck (so to speak) stops with David Shaw.  

Obviously, I'm not a happy alum.

So, it's heads I win and tails you lose.  In other words, if Costello has a nice season with improvement over the last year, it's all on Costello; while if he struggles, you can attribute it to the coaches.

There certainly is lots of scope for criticism of the offensive coaching staff.  The run game has been nothing short of awful this year, despite returning an all-American running back and an experienced and highly recruiting offensive line.  Others have noted this is a long-term trend, but it was really notable this year, with perhaps the worst running game in the Pac-12.  And I think it is perfectly reasonable to lay that one on the coaching staff writ large, starting with not recruiting enough depth at offensive line, the lack of development of highly promising linemen (Casey Tucker started as a freshman then fell back in the depth chart and ultimately graduate transferred to ASU; Herbig started as a freshman and his development stalled; Little started as a freshman and has regressed), and continued poor in game execution.  But if we are going to criticize the offensive coaching staff for failing to get the running game going, they do deserve praise for the development of Costello (and before him, Hogan).  If Costello had improved to being an above average QB (say a PER in the mid-140s, comparable to Jake Browning or Steve Montez) that would be the reasonably expected improvement from first to second year.  But Costello leads the league in pass efficiency, and I think it is perfectly reasonable to give the coaching staff their dues for his recruitment and development.

BC

---

Here’s a case where the stats can support whichever narrative you like.  We are near the bottom of the PAC-12 in total yards; only USC, UCLA, and Cal are worse.  On the other hand, we are second in the PAC-12 in yards per play.  My preferred stat, points per drive, had us 59th in the country before the OSU game (and excluding the Davis game).  We’ll improve after Saturday, but it’s still an average at best stat.

Neither yds/gm nor yds/play are particularly good measures of overall offensive effectiveness, as discussed over and over here.

Yds/gm within one game is quite meaningful, but over a season is not a good comparison between teams that try to run at different paces - and almost nobody tries to play at the slow pace of Stanford.
Yds/play will give bigger values for boom or bust type offenses over steady ball control offenses.
This year, these factors deflate Stanford's yds/gm numbers and inflate their yds/play numbers.

Stanford's offense right now is playing about as well as can be expected for a team that generally cannot run the ball. For the most part Stanford has been moving the ball since the Utah game - though along with the inconsistencies that come with a deep-ball, no-run-game offense.
Previous to that, Stanford's offense was often horrendous, making season to date averages inherently mixed.

FEI is "value" per drive adjusted for strength of opponent. On that score, Stanford was #39 in the country before the OSU game (it also does not count the Davis game as only FBS opponents are considered). That is also #5 in the Pac 12, with Stanford immediately behind Utah (4th in Pac 12, #38 in country). ASU is #2 in the Pac 12, which makes me think our defense's performance in that game really was quite good.

And it turns out that Stanford's defense is #56 in the country, #5 in the Pac 12 by FEI (again pre-OSU). That's not exactly great, but better than I would have thought.

And that's why I stated that my preferred stat is points per drive.  There are a few ways that the stat can be a bit misleading, because, for example, it doesn't capture starting field position, and the difference between an excellent field goal kicker and a poor one affects the PPD metric.  However, it is much easier to understand than FEI, and in the end, it is the most relevant one, since being able to score more than the opponent is pretty directly tied to winning games.

BC

[Beeg_Dawg]

Costello, a career sub 60% passer, is completing 67% of his passes this season. Should the QB coach get any credit for this improvement?

I'll give him all the credit in the world - as a QB coach. Just like I gave Bloomgren credit as an OL coach. Problem is they were/are both not very good at OC.

How would you know unless you were wearing a headset? Of course, our OCs aren't very good because they aren't guys many of us would pick.  Lacking a resume which includes being OC for Nick Saban or Pete Carroll, how could anyone measure up to the requirements of OC at Stanford? It's takes some crazy insight to call a running play between the tackles on first down and another running play on 3 rd down and 4.  How many plays do you really think get called never make it past Shaw?

---

Costello, a career sub 60% passer, is completing 67% of his passes this season. Should the QB coach get any credit for this improvement?

I'll give him all the credit in the world - as a QB coach. Just like I gave Bloomgren credit as an OL coach. Problem is they were/are both not very good at OC.

I disagree.  There has been a steep drop off in QB development since Sanford moved on a few years ago.  I put all this season's passing prowess on KJ himself.  He deserves it, considering the poor quality of play-calling and, prior to OSU, being forced to pass while playing "catch-up." He has done well despite being set up to fail by coaching/play calling.  

Prichard needs to go to a JC or D3 school and learn how to coach.  We need to figure out a way to obtain a good, seasoned OC who can actually run the offense (assess it correctly and come up with viable game plans and be malleable enough to make intragame changes), and maybe, double as QB coach.  And figure out the Oline problem--players' attitudes? injuries? poor recruiting choices?  coaching?  

(There must be big budgetary constraints regarding our coaches.  No other explanation for the inexperience of OC/QB coach and OLine coach). 

Make these major changes and I'd expect a monster year from KJ next year.  I say next year because this has, IMO, been a "lost season" and put that squarely on the coaches.  And the buck (so to speak) stops with David Shaw.  

Obviously, I'm not a happy alum.

We're on our 3rd QB since Sanford moved on.  Hogan, Chryst and Costello.  Two of the 3 are currently some of the top QBs in Stanford history.  Dude, you are one tough grader.  Costello could be second in Voldemort voting (knowing we will never win again), and you would claim his finish proves your point.

https://www.ranker.com/list/best-stanfor...e-football

[Beeg_Dawg]

Costello, a career sub 60% passer, is completing 67% of his passes this season. Should the QB coach get any credit for this improvement?

I'll give him all the credit in the world - as a QB coach. Just like I gave Bloomgren credit as an OL coach. Problem is they were/are both not very good at OC.

How would you know unless you were wearing a headset? Of course, our OCs aren't very good because they aren't guys many of us would pick.  Lacking a resume which includes being OC for Nick Saban or Pete Carroll, how could anyone measure up to the requirements of OC at Stanford? It's takes some crazy insight to call a running play between the tackles on first down and another running play on 3 rd down and 4.  How many plays do you really think get called never make it past Shaw?

---

Costello, a career sub 60% passer, is completing 67% of his passes this season. Should the QB coach get any credit for this improvement?

I'll give him all the credit in the world - as a QB coach. Just like I gave Bloomgren credit as an OL coach. Problem is they were/are both not very good at OC.

I disagree.  There has been a steep drop off in QB development since Sanford moved on a few years ago.  I put all this season's passing prowess on KJ himself.  He deserves it, considering the poor quality of play-calling and, prior to OSU, being forced to pass while playing "catch-up." He has done well despite being set up to fail by coaching/play calling.  

Prichard needs to go to a JC or D3 school and learn how to coach.  We need to figure out a way to obtain a good, seasoned OC who can actually run the offense (assess it correctly and come up with viable game plans and be malleable enough to make intragame changes), and maybe, double as QB coach.  And figure out the Oline problem--players' attitudes? injuries? poor recruiting choices?  coaching?  

(There must be big budgetary constraints regarding our coaches.  No other explanation for the inexperience of OC/QB coach and OLine coach). 

Make these major changes and I'd expect a monster year from KJ next year.  I say next year because this has, IMO, been a "lost season" and put that squarely on the coaches.  And the buck (so to speak) stops with David Shaw.  

Obviously, I'm not a happy alum.

We're on our 3rd QB since Sanford moved on.  Hogan, Chryst and Costello.  Two of the 3 are currently some of the top QBs in Stanford history.  Dude, you are one tough grader.  Costello could be second in Voldemort voting (knowing we will never win again), and you would claim his finish proves your point.

https://www.ranker.com/list/best-stanfor...e-football

[JPR36]

Costello, a career sub 60% passer, is completing 67% of his passes this season. Should the QB coach get any credit for this improvement?

I'll give him all the credit in the world - as a QB coach. Just like I gave Bloomgren credit as an OL coach. Problem is they were/are both not very good at OC.

How would you know unless you were wearing a headset? Of course, our OCs aren't very good because they aren't guys many of us would pick.  Lacking a resume which includes being OC for Nick Saban or Pete Carroll, how could anyone measure up to the requirements of OC at Stanford? It's takes some crazy insight to call a running play between the tackles on first down and another running play on 3 rd down and 4.  How many plays do you really think get called never make it past Shaw?

---

Costello, a career sub 60% passer, is completing 67% of his passes this season. Should the QB coach get any credit for this improvement?

I'll give him all the credit in the world - as a QB coach. Just like I gave Bloomgren credit as an OL coach. Problem is they were/are both not very good at OC.

I disagree.  There has been a steep drop off in QB development since Sanford moved on a few years ago.  I put all this season's passing prowess on KJ himself.  He deserves it, considering the poor quality of play-calling and, prior to OSU, being forced to pass while playing "catch-up." He has done well despite being set up to fail by coaching/play calling.  

Prichard needs to go to a JC or D3 school and learn how to coach.  We need to figure out a way to obtain a good, seasoned OC who can actually run the offense (assess it correctly and come up with viable game plans and be malleable enough to make intragame changes), and maybe, double as QB coach.  And figure out the Oline problem--players' attitudes? injuries? poor recruiting choices?  coaching?  

(There must be big budgetary constraints regarding our coaches.  No other explanation for the inexperience of OC/QB coach and OLine coach). 

Make these major changes and I'd expect a monster year from KJ next year.  I say next year because this has, IMO, been a "lost season" and put that squarely on the coaches.  And the buck (so to speak) stops with David Shaw.  

Obviously, I'm not a happy alum.

We're on our 3rd QB since Sanford moved on.  Hogan, Chryst and Costello.  Two of the 3 are currently some of the top QBs in Stanford history.  Dude, you are one tough grader.  Costello could be second in Voldemort voting (knowing we will never win again), and you would claim his finish proves your point.

https://www.ranker.com/list/best-stanfor...e-football

You skipped Burns. Was that accidental or intentional?

[JPR36]

Costello, a career sub 60% passer, is completing 67% of his passes this season. Should the QB coach get any credit for this improvement?

I'll give him all the credit in the world - as a QB coach. Just like I gave Bloomgren credit as an OL coach. Problem is they were/are both not very good at OC.

How would you know unless you were wearing a headset? Of course, our OCs aren't very good because they aren't guys many of us would pick.  Lacking a resume which includes being OC for Nick Saban or Pete Carroll, how could anyone measure up to the requirements of OC at Stanford? It's takes some crazy insight to call a running play between the tackles on first down and another running play on 3 rd down and 4.  How many plays do you really think get called never make it past Shaw?

---

Costello, a career sub 60% passer, is completing 67% of his passes this season. Should the QB coach get any credit for this improvement?

I'll give him all the credit in the world - as a QB coach. Just like I gave Bloomgren credit as an OL coach. Problem is they were/are both not very good at OC.

I disagree.  There has been a steep drop off in QB development since Sanford moved on a few years ago.  I put all this season's passing prowess on KJ himself.  He deserves it, considering the poor quality of play-calling and, prior to OSU, being forced to pass while playing "catch-up." He has done well despite being set up to fail by coaching/play calling.  

Prichard needs to go to a JC or D3 school and learn how to coach.  We need to figure out a way to obtain a good, seasoned OC who can actually run the offense (assess it correctly and come up with viable game plans and be malleable enough to make intragame changes), and maybe, double as QB coach.  And figure out the Oline problem--players' attitudes? injuries? poor recruiting choices?  coaching?  

(There must be big budgetary constraints regarding our coaches.  No other explanation for the inexperience of OC/QB coach and OLine coach). 

Make these major changes and I'd expect a monster year from KJ next year.  I say next year because this has, IMO, been a "lost season" and put that squarely on the coaches.  And the buck (so to speak) stops with David Shaw.  

Obviously, I'm not a happy alum.

We're on our 3rd QB since Sanford moved on.  Hogan, Chryst and Costello.  Two of the 3 are currently some of the top QBs in Stanford history.  Dude, you are one tough grader.  Costello could be second in Voldemort voting (knowing we will never win again), and you would claim his finish proves your point.

https://www.ranker.com/list/best-stanfor...e-football

You skipped Burns. Was that accidental or intentional?

[Beeg_Dawg]

Actually, I forgot about Burns.  Nunes too. Changes the question a bit. Are we not coaching up our talent, or are the new guys just that much better?

[Beeg_Dawg]

Actually, I forgot about Burns.  Nunes too. Changes the question a bit. Are we not coaching up our talent, or are the new guys just that much better?

[Velodoc]

Look, Kevin Hogan was our QB for part 2012 season and all of 2013.  Sanford was QB coach in 2103.  That was the year Kevin really developed.  Sanford recruited Chryst, then left for OC position at Boise State.  Prichard was QB coach 2014-2017.  His projects were Burns and Chryst.  Not sure who was responsible for delaying KJ's emergence as starter in 2017, but I'm sure he had a hand in the decision.   I think KJ's success is in spite of his position coach.  

These are my opinions.  I knew Sanford but have never met Prichard.  I may be wrong, but I think Mike Sanford, Jr. was a great talent that "got away."

[Velodoc]

Look, Kevin Hogan was our QB for part 2012 season and all of 2013.  Sanford was QB coach in 2103.  That was the year Kevin really developed.  Sanford recruited Chryst, then left for OC position at Boise State.  Prichard was QB coach 2014-2017.  His projects were Burns and Chryst.  Not sure who was responsible for delaying KJ's emergence as starter in 2017, but I'm sure he had a hand in the decision.   I think KJ's success is in spite of his position coach.  

These are my opinions.  I knew Sanford but have never met Prichard.  I may be wrong, but I think Mike Sanford, Jr. was a great talent that "got away."

[BostonCard]

Actually, I forgot about Burns.  Nunes too. Changes the question a bit. Are we not coaching up our talent, or are the new guys just that much better?

Sanford was at Stanford through 2013, which means Nunes is on him.  Pritchard took on the QB coach duties in 2014 (he had been running backs coach in 2013).  So, he is responsible for Hogan's last two years, Burns, Chryst, and Costello.

BC

EDIT: Sanford was only QB coach in 2013; he had been RB coach before then.  So, only Hogan's 2013 year counts.  Pep Hamilton was QB coach in 2012.

---

Look, Kevin Hogan was our QB for part 2012 season and all of 2013.  Sanford was QB coach in 2103.  That was the year Kevin really developed.  Sanford recruited Chryst, then left for OC position at Boise State.  Prichard was QB coach 2014-2017.  His projects were Burns and Chryst.  Not sure who was responsible for delaying KJ's emergence as starter in 2017, but I'm sure he had a hand in the decision.   I think KJ's success is in spite of his position coach.  

These are my opinions.  I knew Sanford but have never met Prichard.  I may be wrong, but I think Mike Sanford, Jr. was a great talent that "got away."

Here is Hogan's numbers by year (QB coach in parentheses):
2012 (Hamilton): 109/152 (72%), 7.2 ypa, 9 TD, 2 INT, PER of 148
2013 (Sanford): 180/295 (67%),  8.9 ypa, 20 TD, 10 INT, PER of 152
2014 (Pritchard): 232/352 (66%), 7.9 ypa, 19 TD, 8 INT, PER of 146
2015 (Pritchard): 206/304 (68%), 9.4 ypa, 27 TD, 8 INT, PER of 171

If you see a clear sign that Sanford made a large impact on Hogan's numbers, your eyes are better than mine.  To me, the clear discontinuity can be seen in 2015, when Hogan's PER made a fairly large jump, but that was a couple years after Sanford was no longer coach.

Now let's look at Costello's numbers from 2017 to 2018:
2017 (Pritchard): 124/211 (59%), 7.5 ypa, 14 TD's, 4 INT's, PER of 143
2018 (Pritchard): 222/330 (67%), 8.6 ypa, 23 TD, 10 INT, PER of 157

Comparing Hogan's improvement from 2012 to 2013 under Sanford to Costello's improvement from 2017 to 2018 under Pritchard, I don't know why you would give Sanford credit for a smaller improvement in Hogan's numbers but not give Pritchard credit for what Costello has done.

BC

[BostonCard]

Actually, I forgot about Burns.  Nunes too. Changes the question a bit. Are we not coaching up our talent, or are the new guys just that much better?

Sanford was at Stanford through 2013, which means Nunes is on him.  Pritchard took on the QB coach duties in 2014 (he had been running backs coach in 2013).  So, he is responsible for Hogan's last two years, Burns, Chryst, and Costello.

BC

EDIT: Sanford was only QB coach in 2013; he had been RB coach before then.  So, only Hogan's 2013 year counts.  Pep Hamilton was QB coach in 2012.

---

Look, Kevin Hogan was our QB for part 2012 season and all of 2013.  Sanford was QB coach in 2103.  That was the year Kevin really developed.  Sanford recruited Chryst, then left for OC position at Boise State.  Prichard was QB coach 2014-2017.  His projects were Burns and Chryst.  Not sure who was responsible for delaying KJ's emergence as starter in 2017, but I'm sure he had a hand in the decision.   I think KJ's success is in spite of his position coach.  

These are my opinions.  I knew Sanford but have never met Prichard.  I may be wrong, but I think Mike Sanford, Jr. was a great talent that "got away."

Here is Hogan's numbers by year (QB coach in parentheses):
2012 (Hamilton): 109/152 (72%), 7.2 ypa, 9 TD, 2 INT, PER of 148
2013 (Sanford): 180/295 (67%),  8.9 ypa, 20 TD, 10 INT, PER of 152
2014 (Pritchard): 232/352 (66%), 7.9 ypa, 19 TD, 8 INT, PER of 146
2015 (Pritchard): 206/304 (68%), 9.4 ypa, 27 TD, 8 INT, PER of 171

If you see a clear sign that Sanford made a large impact on Hogan's numbers, your eyes are better than mine.  To me, the clear discontinuity can be seen in 2015, when Hogan's PER made a fairly large jump, but that was a couple years after Sanford was no longer coach.

Now let's look at Costello's numbers from 2017 to 2018:
2017 (Pritchard): 124/211 (59%), 7.5 ypa, 14 TD's, 4 INT's, PER of 143
2018 (Pritchard): 222/330 (67%), 8.6 ypa, 23 TD, 10 INT, PER of 157

Comparing Hogan's improvement from 2012 to 2013 under Sanford to Costello's improvement from 2017 to 2018 under Pritchard, I don't know why you would give Sanford credit for a smaller improvement in Hogan's numbers but not give Pritchard credit for what Costello has done.

BC

[Velodoc]

Actually, I forgot about Burns.  Nunes too. Changes the question a bit. Are we not coaching up our talent, or are the new guys just that much better?

Sanford was at Stanford through 2013, which means Nunes is on him.  Pritchard took on the QB coach duties in 2014 (he had been running backs coach in 2013).  So, he is responsible for Hogan's last two years, Burns, Chryst, and Costello.

BC

EDIT: Sanford was only QB coach in 2013; he had been RB coach before then.  So, only Hogan's 2013 year counts.  Pep Hamilton was QB coach in 2012.

---

Look, Kevin Hogan was our QB for part 2012 season and all of 2013.  Sanford was QB coach in 2103.  That was the year Kevin really developed.  Sanford recruited Chryst, then left for OC position at Boise State.  Prichard was QB coach 2014-2017.  His projects were Burns and Chryst.  Not sure who was responsible for delaying KJ's emergence as starter in 2017, but I'm sure he had a hand in the decision.   I think KJ's success is in spite of his position coach.  

These are my opinions.  I knew Sanford but have never met Prichard.  I may be wrong, but I think Mike Sanford, Jr. was a great talent that "got away."

Here is Hogan's numbers by year (QB coach in parentheses):
2012 (Hamilton): 109/152 (72%), 7.2 ypa, 9 TD, 2 INT, PER of 148
2013 (Sanford): 180/295 (67%),  8.9 ypa, 20 TD, 10 INT, PER of 152
2014 (Pritchard): 232/352 (66%), 7.9 ypa, 19 TD, 8 INT, PER of 146
2015 (Pritchard): 206/304 (68%), 9.4 ypa, 27 TD, 8 INT, PER of 171

If you see a clear sign that Sanford made a large impact on Hogan's numbers, your eyes are better than mine.  To me, the clear discontinuity can be seen in 2015, when Hogan's PER made a fairly large jump, but that was a couple years after Sanford was no longer coach.

Now let's look at Costello's numbers from 2017 to 2018:
2017 (Pritchard): 124/211 (59%), 7.5 ypa, 14 TD's, 4 INT's, PER of 143
2018 (Pritchard): 222/330 (67%), 8.6 ypa, 23 TD, 10 INT, PER of 157

Comparing Hogan's improvement from 2012 to 2013 under Sanford to Costello's improvement from 2017 to 2018 under Pritchard, I don't know why you would give Sanford credit for a smaller improvement in Hogan's numbers but not give Pritchard credit for what Costello has done.

BC

BC, tough to argue with those stats.  My impression (non statistical) was that Hogan performed very well in 2013, his first full season as a starter, had some issues in 2014 and was a good QB on a very good (possible the best ever) Stanford team in 2015.   I saw a big change in Hogan's demeanor, patience and leadership in 2013, compared to his 3-4 games in 2012.  I attributed his 2013 improvement, at least to some extent, to coaching (but it could be the natural course of experience and maturity).  I think Hogan's play was all about intangibles and intangibles are tough to attribute to coaching.  Same, to some extent, with KJ.  It may be that Burns and Chryst just lacked those difficult-to-define traits. 

But that change from 2012 to 2013...hmm, I really think Sanford had a very positive hand in that.  

Like I said, I am pretty frustrated as I had very high hopes for this team.  I do hope something changes in middle management.  I'm not a Shaw basher, as I think he is the perfect coach for Stanford, a guy any parent would want their son to play for.  I do think he needs better help.  And it may be that good help is hard to find, especially given budgetary restraints and the escalation of football salaries.

Great to have so much passionate input.  Beat the Weanies!!!!

[Velodoc]

Actually, I forgot about Burns.  Nunes too. Changes the question a bit. Are we not coaching up our talent, or are the new guys just that much better?

Sanford was at Stanford through 2013, which means Nunes is on him.  Pritchard took on the QB coach duties in 2014 (he had been running backs coach in 2013).  So, he is responsible for Hogan's last two years, Burns, Chryst, and Costello.

BC

EDIT: Sanford was only QB coach in 2013; he had been RB coach before then.  So, only Hogan's 2013 year counts.  Pep Hamilton was QB coach in 2012.

---

Look, Kevin Hogan was our QB for part 2012 season and all of 2013.  Sanford was QB coach in 2103.  That was the year Kevin really developed.  Sanford recruited Chryst, then left for OC position at Boise State.  Prichard was QB coach 2014-2017.  His projects were Burns and Chryst.  Not sure who was responsible for delaying KJ's emergence as starter in 2017, but I'm sure he had a hand in the decision.   I think KJ's success is in spite of his position coach.  

These are my opinions.  I knew Sanford but have never met Prichard.  I may be wrong, but I think Mike Sanford, Jr. was a great talent that "got away."

Here is Hogan's numbers by year (QB coach in parentheses):
2012 (Hamilton): 109/152 (72%), 7.2 ypa, 9 TD, 2 INT, PER of 148
2013 (Sanford): 180/295 (67%),  8.9 ypa, 20 TD, 10 INT, PER of 152
2014 (Pritchard): 232/352 (66%), 7.9 ypa, 19 TD, 8 INT, PER of 146
2015 (Pritchard): 206/304 (68%), 9.4 ypa, 27 TD, 8 INT, PER of 171

If you see a clear sign that Sanford made a large impact on Hogan's numbers, your eyes are better than mine.  To me, the clear discontinuity can be seen in 2015, when Hogan's PER made a fairly large jump, but that was a couple years after Sanford was no longer coach.

Now let's look at Costello's numbers from 2017 to 2018:
2017 (Pritchard): 124/211 (59%), 7.5 ypa, 14 TD's, 4 INT's, PER of 143
2018 (Pritchard): 222/330 (67%), 8.6 ypa, 23 TD, 10 INT, PER of 157

Comparing Hogan's improvement from 2012 to 2013 under Sanford to Costello's improvement from 2017 to 2018 under Pritchard, I don't know why you would give Sanford credit for a smaller improvement in Hogan's numbers but not give Pritchard credit for what Costello has done.

BC

BC, tough to argue with those stats.  My impression (non statistical) was that Hogan performed very well in 2013, his first full season as a starter, had some issues in 2014 and was a good QB on a very good (possible the best ever) Stanford team in 2015.   I saw a big change in Hogan's demeanor, patience and leadership in 2013, compared to his 3-4 games in 2012.  I attributed his 2013 improvement, at least to some extent, to coaching (but it could be the natural course of experience and maturity).  I think Hogan's play was all about intangibles and intangibles are tough to attribute to coaching.  Same, to some extent, with KJ.  It may be that Burns and Chryst just lacked those difficult-to-define traits. 

But that change from 2012 to 2013...hmm, I really think Sanford had a very positive hand in that.  

Like I said, I am pretty frustrated as I had very high hopes for this team.  I do hope something changes in middle management.  I'm not a Shaw basher, as I think he is the perfect coach for Stanford, a guy any parent would want their son to play for.  I do think he needs better help.  And it may be that good help is hard to find, especially given budgetary restraints and the escalation of football salaries.

Great to have so much passionate input.  Beat the Weanies!!!!

[Beeg_Dawg]

Actually, I forgot about Burns.  Nunes too. Changes the question a bit. Are we not coaching up our talent, or are the new guys just that much better?

Sanford was at Stanford through 2013, which means Nunes is on him.  Pritchard took on the QB coach duties in 2014 (he had been running backs coach in 2013).  So, he is responsible for Hogan's last two years, Burns, Chryst, and Costello.

BC

EDIT: Sanford was only QB coach in 2013; he had been RB coach before then.  So, only Hogan's 2013 year counts.  Pep Hamilton was QB coach in 2012.

---

Look, Kevin Hogan was our QB for part 2012 season and all of 2013.  Sanford was QB coach in 2103.  That was the year Kevin really developed.  Sanford recruited Chryst, then left for OC position at Boise State.  Prichard was QB coach 2014-2017.  His projects were Burns and Chryst.  Not sure who was responsible for delaying KJ's emergence as starter in 2017, but I'm sure he had a hand in the decision.   I think KJ's success is in spite of his position coach.  

These are my opinions.  I knew Sanford but have never met Prichard.  I may be wrong, but I think Mike Sanford, Jr. was a great talent that "got away."

Here is Hogan's numbers by year (QB coach in parentheses):
2012 (Hamilton): 109/152 (72%), 7.2 ypa, 9 TD, 2 INT, PER of 148
2013 (Sanford): 180/295 (67%),  8.9 ypa, 20 TD, 10 INT, PER of 152
2014 (Pritchard): 232/352 (66%), 7.9 ypa, 19 TD, 8 INT, PER of 146
2015 (Pritchard): 206/304 (68%), 9.4 ypa, 27 TD, 8 INT, PER of 171

If you see a clear sign that Sanford made a large impact on Hogan's numbers, your eyes are better than mine.  To me, the clear discontinuity can be seen in 2015, when Hogan's PER made a fairly large jump, but that was a couple years after Sanford was no longer coach.

Now let's look at Costello's numbers from 2017 to 2018:
2017 (Pritchard): 124/211 (59%), 7.5 ypa, 14 TD's, 4 INT's, PER of 143
2018 (Pritchard): 222/330 (67%), 8.6 ypa, 23 TD, 10 INT, PER of 157

Comparing Hogan's improvement from 2012 to 2013 under Sanford to Costello's improvement from 2017 to 2018 under Pritchard, I don't know why you would give Sanford credit for a smaller improvement in Hogan's numbers but not give Pritchard credit for what Costello has done.

BC

BC, tough to argue with those stats.  My impression (non statistical) was that Hogan performed very well in 2013, his first full season as a starter, had some issues in 2014 and was a good QB on a very good (possible the best ever) Stanford team in 2015.   I saw a big change in Hogan's demeanor, patience and leadership in 2013, compared to his 3-4 games in 2012.  I attributed his 2013 improvement, at least to some extent, to coaching (but it could be the natural course of experience and maturity).  I think Hogan's play was all about intangibles and intangibles are tough to attribute to coaching.  Same, to some extent, with KJ.  It may be that Burns and Chryst just lacked those difficult-to-define traits. 

But that change from 2012 to 2013...hmm, I really think Sanford had a very positive hand in that.  

Like I said, I am pretty frustrated as I had very high hopes for this team.  I do hope something changes in middle management.  I'm not a Shaw basher, as I think he is the perfect coach for Stanford, a guy any parent would want their son to play for.  I do think he needs better help.  And it may be that good help is hard to find, especially given budgetary restraints and the escalation of football salaries.

Great to have so much passionate input.  Beat the Weanies!!!!

I look at not only coaching, but the supporting cast.  Better OL play this year, Love has better numbers, but maybe Costello does not rise to the occasion.  Maybe Hogan's numbers had less to do with who was coaching and more to with some guy name McCaffery. 

Sometimes guys hit their peak early, leaving little or no coaching upside. Sometimes guys are hurt. There are dozens of reasons why every player doesn't improve game to game and season to season.  Coaching is certainly one reason, but it is not the only one.

[Beeg_Dawg]

Actually, I forgot about Burns.  Nunes too. Changes the question a bit. Are we not coaching up our talent, or are the new guys just that much better?

Sanford was at Stanford through 2013, which means Nunes is on him.  Pritchard took on the QB coach duties in 2014 (he had been running backs coach in 2013).  So, he is responsible for Hogan's last two years, Burns, Chryst, and Costello.

BC

EDIT: Sanford was only QB coach in 2013; he had been RB coach before then.  So, only Hogan's 2013 year counts.  Pep Hamilton was QB coach in 2012.

---

Look, Kevin Hogan was our QB for part 2012 season and all of 2013.  Sanford was QB coach in 2103.  That was the year Kevin really developed.  Sanford recruited Chryst, then left for OC position at Boise State.  Prichard was QB coach 2014-2017.  His projects were Burns and Chryst.  Not sure who was responsible for delaying KJ's emergence as starter in 2017, but I'm sure he had a hand in the decision.   I think KJ's success is in spite of his position coach.  

These are my opinions.  I knew Sanford but have never met Prichard.  I may be wrong, but I think Mike Sanford, Jr. was a great talent that "got away."

Here is Hogan's numbers by year (QB coach in parentheses):
2012 (Hamilton): 109/152 (72%), 7.2 ypa, 9 TD, 2 INT, PER of 148
2013 (Sanford): 180/295 (67%),  8.9 ypa, 20 TD, 10 INT, PER of 152
2014 (Pritchard): 232/352 (66%), 7.9 ypa, 19 TD, 8 INT, PER of 146
2015 (Pritchard): 206/304 (68%), 9.4 ypa, 27 TD, 8 INT, PER of 171

If you see a clear sign that Sanford made a large impact on Hogan's numbers, your eyes are better than mine.  To me, the clear discontinuity can be seen in 2015, when Hogan's PER made a fairly large jump, but that was a couple years after Sanford was no longer coach.

Now let's look at Costello's numbers from 2017 to 2018:
2017 (Pritchard): 124/211 (59%), 7.5 ypa, 14 TD's, 4 INT's, PER of 143
2018 (Pritchard): 222/330 (67%), 8.6 ypa, 23 TD, 10 INT, PER of 157

Comparing Hogan's improvement from 2012 to 2013 under Sanford to Costello's improvement from 2017 to 2018 under Pritchard, I don't know why you would give Sanford credit for a smaller improvement in Hogan's numbers but not give Pritchard credit for what Costello has done.

BC

BC, tough to argue with those stats.  My impression (non statistical) was that Hogan performed very well in 2013, his first full season as a starter, had some issues in 2014 and was a good QB on a very good (possible the best ever) Stanford team in 2015.   I saw a big change in Hogan's demeanor, patience and leadership in 2013, compared to his 3-4 games in 2012.  I attributed his 2013 improvement, at least to some extent, to coaching (but it could be the natural course of experience and maturity).  I think Hogan's play was all about intangibles and intangibles are tough to attribute to coaching.  Same, to some extent, with KJ.  It may be that Burns and Chryst just lacked those difficult-to-define traits. 

But that change from 2012 to 2013...hmm, I really think Sanford had a very positive hand in that.  

Like I said, I am pretty frustrated as I had very high hopes for this team.  I do hope something changes in middle management.  I'm not a Shaw basher, as I think he is the perfect coach for Stanford, a guy any parent would want their son to play for.  I do think he needs better help.  And it may be that good help is hard to find, especially given budgetary restraints and the escalation of football salaries.

Great to have so much passionate input.  Beat the Weanies!!!!

I look at not only coaching, but the supporting cast.  Better OL play this year, Love has better numbers, but maybe Costello does not rise to the occasion.  Maybe Hogan's numbers had less to do with who was coaching and more to with some guy name McCaffery. 

Sometimes guys hit their peak early, leaving little or no coaching upside. Sometimes guys are hurt. There are dozens of reasons why every player doesn't improve game to game and season to season.  Coaching is certainly one reason, but it is not the only one.

[BostonCard]

Herbert
Year 1: PER = 148.8,266 yds/gm  (yds/gm only games started)
Year 2: PER = 167.5, 271 yds/gm (yds/gm only from whole games played)
Year 2: PER = 148.8, 262 yds/gm

Anyone know what happened to Herbert to cause his apparent regression?  He looked outerworldly against us (then again, other QB's have looked really good against us too), which means his PER against teams not named Stanford is probably under 145.

BC

[BostonCard]

Herbert
Year 1: PER = 148.8,266 yds/gm  (yds/gm only games started)
Year 2: PER = 167.5, 271 yds/gm (yds/gm only from whole games played)
Year 2: PER = 148.8, 262 yds/gm

Anyone know what happened to Herbert to cause his apparent regression?  He looked outerworldly against us (then again, other QB's have looked really good against us too), which means his PER against teams not named Stanford is probably under 145.

BC

[CTcard]

Anyone know what happened to Herbert to cause his apparent regression?  He looked outerworldly against us (then again, other QB's have looked really good against us too), which means his PER against teams not named Stanford is probably under 145.

I haven't paid enough attention to the duckies to really answer. A few notes however ...

For the whole game against us, Herbert's final stats were only good but not otherworldly. This was entirely due to OT.
For four quarters Herbert went 25-27, 331 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, PER = 208
For overtime Herbert went 1-6, 15 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, PER = 4
That left him with a game PER=171, his fourth highest of the season.

Since our game, he has had a drop off. He struggled a bit in a win over UW, which may be mostly due to a good UW secondary. Then he had a poor game and atrocious first half vs WSU, and rather a disaster of a game in a loss vs Arizona (which isn't exactly a defensive juggernaut). 

I typically think nagging injuries when I see this kind of mid-season drop off, but I know nothing directly about Herbert.

[CTcard]

Anyone know what happened to Herbert to cause his apparent regression?  He looked outerworldly against us (then again, other QB's have looked really good against us too), which means his PER against teams not named Stanford is probably under 145.

I haven't paid enough attention to the duckies to really answer. A few notes however ...

For the whole game against us, Herbert's final stats were only good but not otherworldly. This was entirely due to OT.
For four quarters Herbert went 25-27, 331 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, PER = 208
For overtime Herbert went 1-6, 15 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, PER = 4
That left him with a game PER=171, his fourth highest of the season.

Since our game, he has had a drop off. He struggled a bit in a win over UW, which may be mostly due to a good UW secondary. Then he had a poor game and atrocious first half vs WSU, and rather a disaster of a game in a loss vs Arizona (which isn't exactly a defensive juggernaut). 

I typically think nagging injuries when I see this kind of mid-season drop off, but I know nothing directly about Herbert.

[FarmBoy]

Tweet from Lombardi. Apparently Costello has thrown for the most yards while under pressure. 

https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/1...0598904832

On the plus side, KJ has been great under pressure (and he has some great targets to throw to) but on the down side, he's been under pressure A LOT!

[FarmBoy]

Tweet from Lombardi. Apparently Costello has thrown for the most yards while under pressure. 

https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/1...0598904832

On the plus side, KJ has been great under pressure (and he has some great targets to throw to) but on the down side, he's been under pressure A LOT!

[CowboyIndian]

On the plus side, KJ has been great under pressure (and he has some great targets to throw to) but on the down side, he's been under pressure A LOT!

Which is what happens when you can't run and everyone knows it.

[CowboyIndian]

On the plus side, KJ has been great under pressure (and he has some great targets to throw to) but on the down side, he's been under pressure A LOT!

Which is what happens when you can't run and everyone knows it.

[BostonCard]

Since our game, he has had a drop off. He struggled a bit in a win over UW, which may be mostly due to a good UW secondary. Then he had a poor game and atrocious first half vs WSU, and rather a disaster of a game in a loss vs Arizona (which isn't exactly a defensive juggernaut). 

We broke him.

BC

[BostonCard]

Since our game, he has had a drop off. He struggled a bit in a win over UW, which may be mostly due to a good UW secondary. Then he had a poor game and atrocious first half vs WSU, and rather a disaster of a game in a loss vs Arizona (which isn't exactly a defensive juggernaut). 

We broke him.

BC

[StanfordMatt]

For all those longing for the quarterback mentoring of Sanford, it's interesting to note that he's likely to come back on the market in the near future as there's considerable talk that he'll be fired at WKU after just year 2. Probably a moot point since Shaw has never fired an assistant to the best of my knowledge and there's a good chance none of the current offensive assistants will have find better opportunities elsewhere this year.

As far as the bigger picture of evaluating the performances of our OC's in general, I have a hard time assigning much credit or blame to any of Pitchard, Bloomgren, etc. I'm still convinced that it's Shaw's offense and he's the one calling all the shots, job titles be damned.

[StanfordMatt]

For all those longing for the quarterback mentoring of Sanford, it's interesting to note that he's likely to come back on the market in the near future as there's considerable talk that he'll be fired at WKU after just year 2. Probably a moot point since Shaw has never fired an assistant to the best of my knowledge and there's a good chance none of the current offensive assistants will have find better opportunities elsewhere this year.

As far as the bigger picture of evaluating the performances of our OC's in general, I have a hard time assigning much credit or blame to any of Pitchard, Bloomgren, etc. I'm still convinced that it's Shaw's offense and he's the one calling all the shots, job titles be damned.

[BostonCard]

Updated stats through UCLA:

245/367 (67%) 3198 yards (8.7 YPA), 28 TD, 11 INT, PER 159

Costello leads the conference in PER, is second in the conference behind Browning in YPA and, second in completion percentage, touchdowns, and YPG behind Minshew.  His yards/game and PER have improved every month of the season.

Although the most likely outcome is that he will declare for the draft next season, he has started to appear on some 2019 draft boards and there is starting to be a good chance that he could get drafted if he chose to declare this year.

BC

[BostonCard]

Updated stats through UCLA:

245/367 (67%) 3198 yards (8.7 YPA), 28 TD, 11 INT, PER 159

Costello leads the conference in PER, is second in the conference behind Browning in YPA and, second in completion percentage, touchdowns, and YPG behind Minshew.  His yards/game and PER have improved every month of the season.

Although the most likely outcome is that he will declare for the draft next season, he has started to appear on some 2019 draft boards and there is starting to be a good chance that he could get drafted if he chose to declare this year.

BC