[d4cohn]

Softball just released its schedule for the 2019 season. Link: https://gostanford.com/schedule.aspx?path=softball

Also, season tickets for the first time this year.

[d4cohn]

Softball just released its schedule for the 2019 season. Link: https://gostanford.com/schedule.aspx?path=softball

Also, season tickets for the first time this year.

[BobK]

Prior to about 2007 they were a ticketed sport.

I’ll buy. I’m excited

[BobK]

Prior to about 2007 they were a ticketed sport.

I’ll buy. I’m excited

[d4cohn]

Have some time to break down softball schedule for 2019. The non-conference slate is definitely a marked improvement from last year.
It still feels a little light on the number of games against NCAA tournament-level competition versus non-NCAA tournament-level competition as far as putting together a compelling at-large bid resume, but it is going to be a balancing act for Coach Allister over the next couple of years as she builds the program back up between ensuring a winning record (which is a necessary prerequisite for even being in the conversation for the NCAA tournament, given strength of Pac-12 conference) and putting enough RPI games (and hopefully wins) on the resume. 

One thing for certain is this schedule will definitely have us in the conversation for the NCAA tournament should we achieve the requisite level of play.

I am going to tier the non-conference games between elite competition (guaranteed NCAA tournament teams), NCAA tournament/NCAA bubble teams (these would be teams from RPI 30-70 or 80 or so), and weaker competition.

Elite Non-Conference Competition (being competitive in either game would be a big positive):
at LSU
neutral site against Michigan

NCAA Tournament/NCAA bubble teams:
home Northwestern (this would be a big win if we can get it)
2 home games against North Dakota State (very strong mid major program in softball)
neutral site Kansas
home Iowa State (would be nice to beat both Big 12 schools)
2 neutral site games Cal State Northridge
home Cal Poly
at Fresno State (very tough game, would be enormous if we got a win)

These are the games that, along with the requisite level of play in the Pac-12, will make or break an NCAA tournament bid.

Weaker Competition:
neutral site Bradley
neutral site Seattle
neutral site Western Michigan
neutral site Weber State
home Pacific
home Portland State
home Colorado State
neutral site Memphis
2 home games Montana
2 home games Sacramento State
2 home games UMass Lowell
2 home games UNLV
2 home games Bucknell
2 home games Saint Mary's
at Santa Clara

These games are all about bad loss avoidance as far as NCAA tournament resume. We need to win most of these to be in the conversation at the end of the season.

---

Turning to the Pac-12 schedule, fortuitously for Stanford, a couple of programs took major steps back in the offseason,
so I think a much better Pac-12 record is very possible (and hopefully likely):

Oregon lost its HC, and has since lost 5 players to transfer (including one of only 4 pitchers at the school), the starting catcher
and other contributors. Oregon only has 14-15 players on its roster this year, and three pitchers, so while they still have a lot of talent,
they are going to be dangerously thin on depth (similar position that we were in 2015 and 2016). This program seems primed to decline rapidly though in the coming years, as their current HC, let's simply say, has had a bit of tumultuous entry to the program. 

Arizona State lost its ace pitcher to Oklahoma, along with another starter to Arkansas. That ace pitcher, along with a senior
who graduated, was their pitching rotation, so ASU will undoubtedly take a major step back toward the rest of the Pac. There seems to be a lot of drama around this program too, so ASU could decline as well pretty rapidly if things spiral.

Washington will likely be the class of the conference again, with their 1-2 starters from last year (though they did lose a fair number of starters from last year's NCG squad).

UCLA will be challenging UW for the conference title, along with possibly UA, but UCLA's lack of pitching depth behind Garcia may allow us to steal
a game, like we nearly did against the Bruins last year.

Utah will be awful this year, as they lost their entire rotation from their last place team. They are an absolute mess.

Oregon State and Cal will be likely what they have been, NCAA tournament teams and either No.2 to No.3 seeds in their regional (i.e. not Top 16 teams)

Of the more winnable games, we get Oregon at home, Utah at home (must win series to have serious NCAA hopes), and Arizona State at home. We get Cal and Oregon State on the road (those two series, more than the rest, will likely dictate the most in conference play as far as how strong any potential at-large resume is). 

It would be amazing (and probably very unlikely) to win any of the six games at UA and UW. Keeping the score competitive would be a positive. 
The home series against UCLA offers a potential resume defining win, but it would likely be at most one (i.e. the day Garcia isn't pitching).

[d4cohn]

Have some time to break down softball schedule for 2019. The non-conference slate is definitely a marked improvement from last year.
It still feels a little light on the number of games against NCAA tournament-level competition versus non-NCAA tournament-level competition as far as putting together a compelling at-large bid resume, but it is going to be a balancing act for Coach Allister over the next couple of years as she builds the program back up between ensuring a winning record (which is a necessary prerequisite for even being in the conversation for the NCAA tournament, given strength of Pac-12 conference) and putting enough RPI games (and hopefully wins) on the resume. 

One thing for certain is this schedule will definitely have us in the conversation for the NCAA tournament should we achieve the requisite level of play.

I am going to tier the non-conference games between elite competition (guaranteed NCAA tournament teams), NCAA tournament/NCAA bubble teams (these would be teams from RPI 30-70 or 80 or so), and weaker competition.

Elite Non-Conference Competition (being competitive in either game would be a big positive):
at LSU
neutral site against Michigan

NCAA Tournament/NCAA bubble teams:
home Northwestern (this would be a big win if we can get it)
2 home games against North Dakota State (very strong mid major program in softball)
neutral site Kansas
home Iowa State (would be nice to beat both Big 12 schools)
2 neutral site games Cal State Northridge
home Cal Poly
at Fresno State (very tough game, would be enormous if we got a win)

These are the games that, along with the requisite level of play in the Pac-12, will make or break an NCAA tournament bid.

Weaker Competition:
neutral site Bradley
neutral site Seattle
neutral site Western Michigan
neutral site Weber State
home Pacific
home Portland State
home Colorado State
neutral site Memphis
2 home games Montana
2 home games Sacramento State
2 home games UMass Lowell
2 home games UNLV
2 home games Bucknell
2 home games Saint Mary's
at Santa Clara

These games are all about bad loss avoidance as far as NCAA tournament resume. We need to win most of these to be in the conversation at the end of the season.

---

Turning to the Pac-12 schedule, fortuitously for Stanford, a couple of programs took major steps back in the offseason,
so I think a much better Pac-12 record is very possible (and hopefully likely):

Oregon lost its HC, and has since lost 5 players to transfer (including one of only 4 pitchers at the school), the starting catcher
and other contributors. Oregon only has 14-15 players on its roster this year, and three pitchers, so while they still have a lot of talent,
they are going to be dangerously thin on depth (similar position that we were in 2015 and 2016). This program seems primed to decline rapidly though in the coming years, as their current HC, let's simply say, has had a bit of tumultuous entry to the program. 

Arizona State lost its ace pitcher to Oklahoma, along with another starter to Arkansas. That ace pitcher, along with a senior
who graduated, was their pitching rotation, so ASU will undoubtedly take a major step back toward the rest of the Pac. There seems to be a lot of drama around this program too, so ASU could decline as well pretty rapidly if things spiral.

Washington will likely be the class of the conference again, with their 1-2 starters from last year (though they did lose a fair number of starters from last year's NCG squad).

UCLA will be challenging UW for the conference title, along with possibly UA, but UCLA's lack of pitching depth behind Garcia may allow us to steal
a game, like we nearly did against the Bruins last year.

Utah will be awful this year, as they lost their entire rotation from their last place team. They are an absolute mess.

Oregon State and Cal will be likely what they have been, NCAA tournament teams and either No.2 to No.3 seeds in their regional (i.e. not Top 16 teams)

Of the more winnable games, we get Oregon at home, Utah at home (must win series to have serious NCAA hopes), and Arizona State at home. We get Cal and Oregon State on the road (those two series, more than the rest, will likely dictate the most in conference play as far as how strong any potential at-large resume is). 

It would be amazing (and probably very unlikely) to win any of the six games at UA and UW. Keeping the score competitive would be a positive. 
The home series against UCLA offers a potential resume defining win, but it would likely be at most one (i.e. the day Garcia isn't pitching).

[BobK]

Great post D. Listening to the audio with Jessica thrilled that she is encouraged by Dwyer’s recovery. That’s a brobdingnagian key to the season. I did see Lee pitch this fall and she certainly looked much better

[BobK]

Great post D. Listening to the audio with Jessica thrilled that she is encouraged by Dwyer’s recovery. That’s a brobdingnagian key to the season. I did see Lee pitch this fall and she certainly looked much better

[d4cohn]

Massey came out with their softball rankings for this coming year; we are No. 51 (which is in-line with my analysis of the schedule previously; in the bubble conversation, but probably need to overachieve a smidge to actually make the NCAA tournament, namely by beating expectations in Pac-12 play; if I had to set a probability on making the NCAA tournament, I would probably say somewhere in the 30%-40% chance, contingent on no catastrophic injury bugs). 

Massey projects us to rack-up non-conference wins (we are only underdogs against Northwestern and Fresno State, though the projections for the contests against LSU and Michigan haven't been included to-date; we will be massive underdogs against both when the projection is updated).

I think Massey undersells our chances against Utah, Oregon, and Arizona State at home; however, Massey gives us a 15% chance at Hillenbrand against UA, which I think overestimates our chances.  

https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7582&s=306356

[d4cohn]

Massey came out with their softball rankings for this coming year; we are No. 51 (which is in-line with my analysis of the schedule previously; in the bubble conversation, but probably need to overachieve a smidge to actually make the NCAA tournament, namely by beating expectations in Pac-12 play; if I had to set a probability on making the NCAA tournament, I would probably say somewhere in the 30%-40% chance, contingent on no catastrophic injury bugs). 

Massey projects us to rack-up non-conference wins (we are only underdogs against Northwestern and Fresno State, though the projections for the contests against LSU and Michigan haven't been included to-date; we will be massive underdogs against both when the projection is updated).

I think Massey undersells our chances against Utah, Oregon, and Arizona State at home; however, Massey gives us a 15% chance at Hillenbrand against UA, which I think overestimates our chances.  

https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7582&s=306356

[BobK]

Thanks D. The keys are health and improvement of our pitchers duh. Plus the Frosh strongly contributing here and there.

Getting closer to the first game

[BobK]

Thanks D. The keys are health and improvement of our pitchers duh. Plus the Frosh strongly contributing here and there.

Getting closer to the first game

[d4cohn]

Thanks D.  The keys are health and improvement of our pitchers duh.   Plus the Frosh strongly contributing here and there.  

Getting closer to the first game

I actually think Bob, for the first time in a while, we will need to achieve more improvement in hitting than pitching in order to exceed expectations. Pitching needs to improve a bit to be NCAA-caliber, but hopefully the hitting will take a massive step forward with the freshman class, and better health.

[d4cohn]

Thanks D.  The keys are health and improvement of our pitchers duh.   Plus the Frosh strongly contributing here and there.  

Getting closer to the first game

I actually think Bob, for the first time in a while, we will need to achieve more improvement in hitting than pitching in order to exceed expectations. Pitching needs to improve a bit to be NCAA-caliber, but hopefully the hitting will take a massive step forward with the freshman class, and better health.

[BobK]

At the Fall game I went to and yes 2 1/2 months ago, ourtop two pitchers were sttill injured. Or maybe they could practice and not play yet being on the safe side.

Yes hitting for sure, but pitching more in my mind.

[BobK]

At the Fall game I went to and yes 2 1/2 months ago, ourtop two pitchers were sttill injured. Or maybe they could practice and not play yet being on the safe side.

Yes hitting for sure, but pitching more in my mind.

[d4cohn]

Oregon softball has now lost its seventh player to transfer, and the last remaining pitcher of their three pitcher juggarnaut from the past couple of seasons:

https://www.ducksports.com/sports/201901...o-transfer

Only two pitchers currently on the roster (transfers from Va Tech and A&M). They will not be very good at all, particularly if they have to have position players pitch like we did in 2015.

This most recent transfer follows an investigatory piece on Friday regarding the dysfunction and chaos within the Oregon softball program:

https://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/2019/01...-2019.html

[d4cohn]

Oregon softball has now lost its seventh player to transfer, and the last remaining pitcher of their three pitcher juggarnaut from the past couple of seasons:

https://www.ducksports.com/sports/201901...o-transfer

Only two pitchers currently on the roster (transfers from Va Tech and A&M). They will not be very good at all, particularly if they have to have position players pitch like we did in 2015.

This most recent transfer follows an investigatory piece on Friday regarding the dysfunction and chaos within the Oregon softball program:

https://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/2019/01...-2019.html

[BobK]

Thanks for posting D. So sounds like Stanford with Hansen. A shame though that our former pitching coach had to go all though this once again

[BobK]

Thanks for posting D. So sounds like Stanford with Hansen. A shame though that our former pitching coach had to go all though this once again

[d4cohn]

Thanks for posting D.   So sounds like Stanford with Hansen.

With White's involvement in our situation with Coach Rittman, my first thought is to that Justin Timberlake song... but I digress. :)

[d4cohn]

Thanks for posting D.   So sounds like Stanford with Hansen.

With White's involvement in our situation with Coach Rittman, my first thought is to that Justin Timberlake song... but I digress. :)

[BostonCard]

Two come to mind...

https://youtu.be/TOrnUquxtwA

And

https://youtu.be/DksSPZTZES0

BC

[BostonCard]

Two come to mind...

https://youtu.be/TOrnUquxtwA

And

https://youtu.be/DksSPZTZES0

BC

[Mick]

Thanks for posting D.   So sounds like Stanford with Hansen.

With White's involvement in our situation with Coach Rittman, my first thought is to that Justin Timberlake song... but I digress. :)

I agree, but White left Oregon for Texas last June. Doubled his pay. The new coach Lombardi does sound like Hansen in terms of being a taskmaster.

[Mick]

Thanks for posting D.   So sounds like Stanford with Hansen.

With White's involvement in our situation with Coach Rittman, my first thought is to that Justin Timberlake song... but I digress. :)

I agree, but White left Oregon for Texas last June. Doubled his pay. The new coach Lombardi does sound like Hansen in terms of being a taskmaster.

[d4cohn]

Two come to mind...

https://youtu.be/TOrnUquxtwA

And

https://youtu.be/DksSPZTZES0

BC

Either very applicable, though I was thinking of the first one. Thanks BC. :)

[d4cohn]

Two come to mind...

https://youtu.be/TOrnUquxtwA

And

https://youtu.be/DksSPZTZES0

BC

Either very applicable, though I was thinking of the first one. Thanks BC. :)

[BostonCard]

Either very applicable, though I was thinking of the first one. Thanks BC. :)

That's what I figured, but I remembered "Cry me a river" and thought it was a good fit.

BC

[BostonCard]

Either very applicable, though I was thinking of the first one. Thanks BC. :)

That's what I figured, but I remembered "Cry me a river" and thought it was a good fit.

BC

[BobK]

With the latest transfer now Oregon has lost 8

[BobK]

With the latest transfer now Oregon has lost 8

[d4cohn]

With the latest transfer now Oregon has lost 8

https://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/2019/01...-2020.html

https://tenor.com/view/djkhaled-another-...if-5057861

[d4cohn]

With the latest transfer now Oregon has lost 8

https://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/2019/01...-2020.html

https://tenor.com/view/djkhaled-another-...if-5057861

[d4cohn]

https://247sports.com/college/oregon/Art...128289167/

And now it is up to 9 players transferring out of Oregon (3 already this week). They are down to 14 players (9 have to start), only 2 pitchers, and 12 position players. They honestly may have trouble fielding a team if this continues.

[d4cohn]

https://247sports.com/college/oregon/Art...128289167/

And now it is up to 9 players transferring out of Oregon (3 already this week). They are down to 14 players (9 have to start), only 2 pitchers, and 12 position players. They honestly may have trouble fielding a team if this continues.

[BostonCard]

https://247sports.com/college/oregon/Art...128289167/

And now it is up to 9 players transferring out of Oregon (3 already this week). They are down to 14 players (9 have to start), only 2 pitchers, and 12 position players. They honestly may have trouble fielding a team if this continues.

That just breaks my heart.

BC

[BostonCard]

https://247sports.com/college/oregon/Art...128289167/

And now it is up to 9 players transferring out of Oregon (3 already this week). They are down to 14 players (9 have to start), only 2 pitchers, and 12 position players. They honestly may have trouble fielding a team if this continues.

That just breaks my heart.

BC

[d4cohn]

https://247sports.com/college/oregon/Art...128289167/

And now it is up to 9 players transferring out of Oregon (3 already this week). They are down to 14 players (9 have to start), only 2 pitchers, and 12 position players. They honestly may have trouble fielding a team if this continues.

That just breaks my heart.

BC

Yeah, but we actually want to play them (or have them forfeit due to lack of players) so the wins count for us. If the games are just canceled, we don't get the benefit of beating up on easy competition at home nonetheless. We are likely going to need every win to reach >= .500 to make the NCAA tournament.

[d4cohn]

https://247sports.com/college/oregon/Art...128289167/

And now it is up to 9 players transferring out of Oregon (3 already this week). They are down to 14 players (9 have to start), only 2 pitchers, and 12 position players. They honestly may have trouble fielding a team if this continues.

That just breaks my heart.

BC

Yeah, but we actually want to play them (or have them forfeit due to lack of players) so the wins count for us. If the games are just canceled, we don't get the benefit of beating up on easy competition at home nonetheless. We are likely going to need every win to reach >= .500 to make the NCAA tournament.