(01-07-2020, 10:58 AM)BosCard Wrote: Totally agree with everything 2006alum and everyone else has been saying about expectations. And I do think there is a top tier of final four teams in Oregon, UConn, Baylor and South Carolina. However, I am not sure I would include Oregon St. in that group. I think they are quite similar to our team and would have similar expectations for them (PAC-12 top three, elite eight and anything above that is extra)
I think the jury is still out on UConn a little bit. Of course with Auriemma at the helm and very talented players in Dangerfield, Williams, Walker and Nelson-Ododa, but those four are not as dominant as the lineups Geno had had with Stewart, Jefferson, etc. in the past few years. Their lack of depth haven't hurt them because of the dominance of their starters, but this might be a year where a big drop-off might hurt them.
Similar to us, their post play is one of their weaknesses as Nelson-Ododa is their only down-in-the-paint threat. I looked at their schedule and their biggest win so far has been at DePaul. They won by only 11 at Cal, we'll see if that is more of Cal being good or UConn not being good, though WSU more than doubled their victory margin over the Bears.
They have a big matchup against Baylor this Thursday and then the Huskies play Oregon in a couple months, so we'll see how they match up against elite teams they use to run over easily.
For me, Oregon is a clear #1 and everyone is chasing them. Even though we have shown our weaknesses and we have the worst loss of any of the major contenders, I don't think we are sizeably worse off talent wise than any top team. I haven't watched any of the other teams too closely, but I feel like consistency is a major issue we have, as illustrated in the Washington game.
If we play like we did in the first half of the UW game against a top team, we'll get smoked. But if we play like we did in the second half, we'll not only hang with the contenders, but can beat them. Of course, having DiJonai back will be big. One of the key factors I felt was critical to a potential national title run heading into this season would be whether DiJonai and Kiana can continue to elevate their games into All-American level. Taking a quick look, I don't believe a national champion has not had an All-American since at least the 05-06 season when Maryland won (correct me if I am wrong).
Kiana showed that she can take over a game in the second half, but can she do it night-in, night-out? Based on her struggles and streakiness, no, not yet. It would definitely help if Carrington comes back and relives some of their upperclassman leadership and experience that is heavily resting on Kiana's shoulders right now.