[mbdude]

post game interview with Belibi - "I came here to play"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KuTZtJ_L...e=youtu.be

[mbdude]

post game interview with Belibi - "I came here to play"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KuTZtJ_L...e=youtu.be

[chimera]

That was fun!

It was my first WBB game and my third third M/W BB game.

Is Maples always that crowded for WBB games or was there something special? It seemed more full than the men’s games I’ve gone to. And I swear the fans were more fired up. The entire lots near sunken diamond were full (maybe there was another event), so I had to circle back and to my surprise the garage still had many spots.

That was fairly typical attendance for WBB.  Utah is not a top team or a rival, so not a particular draw.  Bigger names like Oregon will get much bigger crowds.  Some games at funky start times get fewer.  All in all I'd call that an average crowd for this year.

[chimera]

That was fun!

It was my first WBB game and my third third M/W BB game.

Is Maples always that crowded for WBB games or was there something special? It seemed more full than the men’s games I’ve gone to. And I swear the fans were more fired up. The entire lots near sunken diamond were full (maybe there was another event), so I had to circle back and to my surprise the garage still had many spots.

That was fairly typical attendance for WBB.  Utah is not a top team or a rival, so not a particular draw.  Bigger names like Oregon will get much bigger crowds.  Some games at funky start times get fewer.  All in all I'd call that an average crowd for this year.

[jonnyss]

[quote="2006alum" pid='268514' dateline='1580083756']


Next year I expect we will see both Prechtel and Belibi on the floor together at the same time, and it could prove to be a great offensive combo.  With Prechtel's jumpshot, she could sit at the elbow and play the high low game with Belibi's jumping ability at the low post.

and next year we will have cameron brink, who has a similar game to prechtel, but higher-ranked and quicker, though more slender.

[jonnyss]

[quote="2006alum" pid='268514' dateline='1580083756']


Next year I expect we will see both Prechtel and Belibi on the floor together at the same time, and it could prove to be a great offensive combo.  With Prechtel's jumpshot, she could sit at the elbow and play the high low game with Belibi's jumping ability at the low post.

and next year we will have cameron brink, who has a similar game to prechtel, but higher-ranked and quicker, though more slender.

[2006alum]

A few things to note, drawing on this NY Times article on the game:

-Attendance may have been higher/the crowd more enthusiastic because it was the 30th reunion return of the 1990 championship team. They had a nice long interview with Azzi during the second quarter, and I suspect that may have juiced turnout as well as enthusiasm.

-Given how tightlipped the coaches have been about Jones' status (who, I'll note, did not seem to be on the bench with the rest of the team), I found this line from the NY Times article especially noteworthy: "VanDerveer has remained optimistic of Jones returning this season."

If so, that is a considerably rosier picture than I feel like we've gotten so far, because "this season" really only has about 8-9 weeks left in it, which would rule out any really serious injuries.

-I also wonder how this affects the futures of Dodson and Carrington. If Carrington isn't pursuing a medical redshirt, I'd like to see her back, but we do have an extra scholly next year as well. As for Dodson, it'll be interesting to see how she fits into the lineup now that we have Belibi, Prechtel, and incoming top post Cameron Brink. There's suddenly a lot of competition for those 4 and 5 spots after several years where we've been relatively desperate for a reliable offensive post presence not name Alanna Smith.

-Maybe I'm imaging things, but I could have sworn that Belibi had at least 2, possibly 3 made baskets off back to basket plays. I distinctly remember her twice back Pendande in the paint and having her way under the basket. Agree that most were coming off bounce passes and pick and rolls. Regardless, she looked much better doing that than before, and I remember one game earlier this season where she was denied twice on clean blocks when trying to go back to the basket, so it was nice to see.

Two other things worth noting: last year, our top scorers in our loss to Utah were Smith, Carrington, Williams, Hull (Lexie), and Jerome. 
This year, our top scorers were Belibi, Jump, Prechtel, Fingall, and Hull (Lexie). Hard to remember a time in recent years where from one year to the next, we could have an almost complete replacement of leading scorers for the Cardinal like that. It's truly a testament to both how good our Frosh our, and how great our coaches are, that we've been able to almost entirely recreate our team in the wake of all these injuries.

And, as also pointed out by that NY Times article, our 5(!) total turnovers vs. Utah was our lowest in a conference game since finishing with four against Arizona... in 2010, a decade ago!

[2006alum]

A few things to note, drawing on this NY Times article on the game:

-Attendance may have been higher/the crowd more enthusiastic because it was the 30th reunion return of the 1990 championship team. They had a nice long interview with Azzi during the second quarter, and I suspect that may have juiced turnout as well as enthusiasm.

-Given how tightlipped the coaches have been about Jones' status (who, I'll note, did not seem to be on the bench with the rest of the team), I found this line from the NY Times article especially noteworthy: "VanDerveer has remained optimistic of Jones returning this season."

If so, that is a considerably rosier picture than I feel like we've gotten so far, because "this season" really only has about 8-9 weeks left in it, which would rule out any really serious injuries.

-I also wonder how this affects the futures of Dodson and Carrington. If Carrington isn't pursuing a medical redshirt, I'd like to see her back, but we do have an extra scholly next year as well. As for Dodson, it'll be interesting to see how she fits into the lineup now that we have Belibi, Prechtel, and incoming top post Cameron Brink. There's suddenly a lot of competition for those 4 and 5 spots after several years where we've been relatively desperate for a reliable offensive post presence not name Alanna Smith.

-Maybe I'm imaging things, but I could have sworn that Belibi had at least 2, possibly 3 made baskets off back to basket plays. I distinctly remember her twice back Pendande in the paint and having her way under the basket. Agree that most were coming off bounce passes and pick and rolls. Regardless, she looked much better doing that than before, and I remember one game earlier this season where she was denied twice on clean blocks when trying to go back to the basket, so it was nice to see.

Two other things worth noting: last year, our top scorers in our loss to Utah were Smith, Carrington, Williams, Hull (Lexie), and Jerome. 
This year, our top scorers were Belibi, Jump, Prechtel, Fingall, and Hull (Lexie). Hard to remember a time in recent years where from one year to the next, we could have an almost complete replacement of leading scorers for the Cardinal like that. It's truly a testament to both how good our Frosh our, and how great our coaches are, that we've been able to almost entirely recreate our team in the wake of all these injuries.

And, as also pointed out by that NY Times article, our 5(!) total turnovers vs. Utah was our lowest in a conference game since finishing with four against Arizona... in 2010, a decade ago!

[Spike]

In the first half we persistently tried to pound it inside, but after half time Prechtel and Jump came out early and shot about 20 3-pointers (about 19 of them went in!). I told my wife that we were now going to see a different offense and indeed we did! 
Tara knows best.

[Spike]

In the first half we persistently tried to pound it inside, but after half time Prechtel and Jump came out early and shot about 20 3-pointers (about 19 of them went in!). I told my wife that we were now going to see a different offense and indeed we did! 
Tara knows best.

[BosCard]

In the first half we persistently tried to pound it inside, but after half time Prechtel and Jump came out early and shot about 20 3-pointers (about 19 of them went in!). I told my wife that we were now going to see a different offense and indeed we did! 
Tara knows best.

Jump is such a special shooter that everytime she gets a good 3 point shot off (and by good I mean relatively open) everyone on the team and in the stands expects her to make it.  And in this game, she missed three 3’s in a row.  If that was another player we would have drawn up a different plan.  But with Jump we just assumed the next three 3’s would go in and they did.

[BosCard]

In the first half we persistently tried to pound it inside, but after half time Prechtel and Jump came out early and shot about 20 3-pointers (about 19 of them went in!). I told my wife that we were now going to see a different offense and indeed we did! 
Tara knows best.

Jump is such a special shooter that everytime she gets a good 3 point shot off (and by good I mean relatively open) everyone on the team and in the stands expects her to make it.  And in this game, she missed three 3’s in a row.  If that was another player we would have drawn up a different plan.  But with Jump we just assumed the next three 3’s would go in and they did.

[81alum]

In the first half we persistently tried to pound it inside, but after half time Prechtel and Jump came out early and shot about 20 3-pointers (about 19 of them went in!). I told my wife that we were now going to see a different offense and indeed we did! 
Tara knows best.

Jump is such a special shooter that everytime she gets a good 3 point shot off (and by good I mean relatively open) everyone on the team and in the stands expects her to make it.  And in this game, she missed three 3’s in a row.  If that was another player we would have drawn up a different plan.  But with Jump we just assumed the next three 3’s would go in and they did.

Absolutely!

Belibi was out shooting free throws, too.  And she needed to.

That third quarter broke open when we had the inside-outside threat going of Jump bombing threes and Belibi finishing at the rim.

As for Belibi's back to the basket moves, if you watch the highlights here:

https://pac-12.com/videos/recap-no-6-sta...s-pavilion

they feature 4 of her 9 shots.  Three of them are face ups or quasi face ups.  One is a back to the basket--sort of.  She gets the ball with her back to the basket, then spins into a step-back jumper.  You could say when she gets the ball with her back to the basket, she is figuring out moves that let her face up. 

What I'm not sure I have seen very much out of her is a drop step right or a drop step left from a stationary one-on-one defense, to do the 180 to go around a defender and lay it in off glass.  That is the simplest and most classic back to the basket move.   I'm sure it will come.

[81alum]

In the first half we persistently tried to pound it inside, but after half time Prechtel and Jump came out early and shot about 20 3-pointers (about 19 of them went in!). I told my wife that we were now going to see a different offense and indeed we did! 
Tara knows best.

Jump is such a special shooter that everytime she gets a good 3 point shot off (and by good I mean relatively open) everyone on the team and in the stands expects her to make it.  And in this game, she missed three 3’s in a row.  If that was another player we would have drawn up a different plan.  But with Jump we just assumed the next three 3’s would go in and they did.

Absolutely!

Belibi was out shooting free throws, too.  And she needed to.

That third quarter broke open when we had the inside-outside threat going of Jump bombing threes and Belibi finishing at the rim.

As for Belibi's back to the basket moves, if you watch the highlights here:

https://pac-12.com/videos/recap-no-6-sta...s-pavilion

they feature 4 of her 9 shots.  Three of them are face ups or quasi face ups.  One is a back to the basket--sort of.  She gets the ball with her back to the basket, then spins into a step-back jumper.  You could say when she gets the ball with her back to the basket, she is figuring out moves that let her face up. 

What I'm not sure I have seen very much out of her is a drop step right or a drop step left from a stationary one-on-one defense, to do the 180 to go around a defender and lay it in off glass.  That is the simplest and most classic back to the basket move.   I'm sure it will come.

[BostonCard]

And, as also pointed out by that NY Times article, our 5(!) total turnovers vs. Utah was our lowest in a conference game since finishing with four against Arizona... in 2010, a decade ago!

All the more amazing given the number of minutes the freshmen played (freshmen are more turnover prone), and with the injury situation, how many minutes our players played (tired players are more injury prone).

BC

[BostonCard]

And, as also pointed out by that NY Times article, our 5(!) total turnovers vs. Utah was our lowest in a conference game since finishing with four against Arizona... in 2010, a decade ago!

All the more amazing given the number of minutes the freshmen played (freshmen are more turnover prone), and with the injury situation, how many minutes our players played (tired players are more injury prone).

BC

[BosCard]

And, as also pointed out by that NY Times article, our 5(!) total turnovers vs. Utah was our lowest in a conference game since finishing with four against Arizona... in 2010, a decade ago!

All the more amazing given the number of minutes the freshmen played (freshmen are more turnover prone), and with the injury situation, how many minutes our players played (tired players are more injury prone).

BC

I'm trying to decide how much our our good offensive execution and low turnover rate vs Utah is our players becoming better at running the offense vs Utah being not that physical of a defensive team.  If we had been playing OSU or ASU, would our offense have flowed as well?  I think it may be a bit of both.  Our offense is quite complicated and is so timing dependent.  For example we run a lot of double screens for Lexie where she curls around the paint and then has the option to shoot a free throw jumper or drive to the basket.  There is so much that has to go right in terms of the timing of the screens by Fingall and Belibi as well as the timing of the pass from Williams to Lexie.  So yes I think the more we run it the better we will get at our complex offense.  But also a very good and physical defensive team would probably do a better job disrupting it.

[BosCard]

And, as also pointed out by that NY Times article, our 5(!) total turnovers vs. Utah was our lowest in a conference game since finishing with four against Arizona... in 2010, a decade ago!

All the more amazing given the number of minutes the freshmen played (freshmen are more turnover prone), and with the injury situation, how many minutes our players played (tired players are more injury prone).

BC

I'm trying to decide how much our our good offensive execution and low turnover rate vs Utah is our players becoming better at running the offense vs Utah being not that physical of a defensive team.  If we had been playing OSU or ASU, would our offense have flowed as well?  I think it may be a bit of both.  Our offense is quite complicated and is so timing dependent.  For example we run a lot of double screens for Lexie where she curls around the paint and then has the option to shoot a free throw jumper or drive to the basket.  There is so much that has to go right in terms of the timing of the screens by Fingall and Belibi as well as the timing of the pass from Williams to Lexie.  So yes I think the more we run it the better we will get at our complex offense.  But also a very good and physical defensive team would probably do a better job disrupting it.

[BostonCard]

I wasn't very impressed with Utah's defense.  On the other hand, usually there are at least a few "unforced" turnovers due to miscommunications for example, and we had very few.

BC

[BostonCard]

I wasn't very impressed with Utah's defense.  On the other hand, usually there are at least a few "unforced" turnovers due to miscommunications for example, and we had very few.

BC

[teejers1]

I'm trying to decide how much our our good offensive execution and low turnover rate vs Utah is our players becoming better at running the offense vs Utah being not that physical of a defensive team.  If we had been playing OSU or ASU, would our offense have flowed as well?  I think it may be a bit of both.  Our offense is quite complicated and is so timing dependent.  For example we run a lot of double screens for Lexie where she curls around the paint and then has the option to shoot a free throw jumper or drive to the basket.  There is so much that has to go right in terms of the timing of the screens by Fingall and Belibi as well as the timing of the pass from Williams to Lexie.  So yes I think the more we run it the better we will get at our complex offense.  But also a very good and physical defensive team would probably do a better job disrupting it.

Stanford ran a clinic on offense out there against Utah.  Every variation/progression on the O seemed to work:  pick and roll; fake screen and go to hoop, etc.  Tara won't admit it publicly, but that was damn near perfect execution by the Cardinal women Sunday afternoon.

And yeah, Utah may not be great defensively, but still . . . 

P.S.  Also liked few fouls/foul shots, and a nice, tidy game.

[teejers1]

I'm trying to decide how much our our good offensive execution and low turnover rate vs Utah is our players becoming better at running the offense vs Utah being not that physical of a defensive team.  If we had been playing OSU or ASU, would our offense have flowed as well?  I think it may be a bit of both.  Our offense is quite complicated and is so timing dependent.  For example we run a lot of double screens for Lexie where she curls around the paint and then has the option to shoot a free throw jumper or drive to the basket.  There is so much that has to go right in terms of the timing of the screens by Fingall and Belibi as well as the timing of the pass from Williams to Lexie.  So yes I think the more we run it the better we will get at our complex offense.  But also a very good and physical defensive team would probably do a better job disrupting it.

Stanford ran a clinic on offense out there against Utah.  Every variation/progression on the O seemed to work:  pick and roll; fake screen and go to hoop, etc.  Tara won't admit it publicly, but that was damn near perfect execution by the Cardinal women Sunday afternoon.

And yeah, Utah may not be great defensively, but still . . . 

P.S.  Also liked few fouls/foul shots, and a nice, tidy game.

[BostonCard]

Stanford ran a clinic on offense out there against Utah.  Every variation/progression on the O seemed to work:  pick and roll; fake screen and go to hoop, etc.  Tara won't admit it publicly, but that was damn near perfect execution by the Cardinal women Sunday afternoon.

And yeah, Utah may not be great defensively, but still . . . 

P.S.  Also liked few fouls/foul shots, and a nice, tidy game.

If you want to pick nits, our three point shooting was poor.  It was downright dreadful through two and a half quarters, and then Jump and Fingall warmed up.  I think most of the time we got pretty good looks, so it is hard to be too critical; sometimes you do everything right and the ball simply doesn't go into the basket.

I did like the fact that late in the third quarter we kept pushing the three point shots until they started to go in.  I'm not sure if it was a response to a defensive move by Utah to take away the inside (didn't really look like it to my untrained eyes), or if we just made a commitment to shoot ourselves out of the slump.  Whatever it was, it worked, and we wound up with about a 30% three point shooting percentage, after starting 1/10.

BC

[BostonCard]

Stanford ran a clinic on offense out there against Utah.  Every variation/progression on the O seemed to work:  pick and roll; fake screen and go to hoop, etc.  Tara won't admit it publicly, but that was damn near perfect execution by the Cardinal women Sunday afternoon.

And yeah, Utah may not be great defensively, but still . . . 

P.S.  Also liked few fouls/foul shots, and a nice, tidy game.

If you want to pick nits, our three point shooting was poor.  It was downright dreadful through two and a half quarters, and then Jump and Fingall warmed up.  I think most of the time we got pretty good looks, so it is hard to be too critical; sometimes you do everything right and the ball simply doesn't go into the basket.

I did like the fact that late in the third quarter we kept pushing the three point shots until they started to go in.  I'm not sure if it was a response to a defensive move by Utah to take away the inside (didn't really look like it to my untrained eyes), or if we just made a commitment to shoot ourselves out of the slump.  Whatever it was, it worked, and we wound up with about a 30% three point shooting percentage, after starting 1/10.

BC

[crackpot]

I did like the fact that late in the third quarter we kept pushing the three point shots until they started to go in.  I'm not sure if it was a response to a defensive move by Utah to take away the inside (didn't really look like it to my untrained eyes), or if we just made a commitment to shoot ourselves out of the slump.  Whatever it was, it worked, and we wound up with about a 30% three point shooting percentage, after starting 1/10.

BC

Everyone around me was like, "Yeah, keep going!" especially with Jump. We've seen this movie before (Jump goes in, misses a few threes, then boom, TREY CITY!).

[crackpot]

I did like the fact that late in the third quarter we kept pushing the three point shots until they started to go in.  I'm not sure if it was a response to a defensive move by Utah to take away the inside (didn't really look like it to my untrained eyes), or if we just made a commitment to shoot ourselves out of the slump.  Whatever it was, it worked, and we wound up with about a 30% three point shooting percentage, after starting 1/10.

BC

Everyone around me was like, "Yeah, keep going!" especially with Jump. We've seen this movie before (Jump goes in, misses a few threes, then boom, TREY CITY!).

[BostonCard]

I did like the fact that late in the third quarter we kept pushing the three point shots until they started to go in.  I'm not sure if it was a response to a defensive move by Utah to take away the inside (didn't really look like it to my untrained eyes), or if we just made a commitment to shoot ourselves out of the slump.  Whatever it was, it worked, and we wound up with about a 30% three point shooting percentage, after starting 1/10.

BC

Everyone around me was like, "Yeah, keep going!" especially with Jump. We've seen this movie before (Jump goes in, misses a few threes, then boom, TREY CITY!).

Also, the crowd erupted when she made the first one. Probably the loudest cheers of the night.

BC

[BostonCard]

I did like the fact that late in the third quarter we kept pushing the three point shots until they started to go in.  I'm not sure if it was a response to a defensive move by Utah to take away the inside (didn't really look like it to my untrained eyes), or if we just made a commitment to shoot ourselves out of the slump.  Whatever it was, it worked, and we wound up with about a 30% three point shooting percentage, after starting 1/10.

BC

Everyone around me was like, "Yeah, keep going!" especially with Jump. We've seen this movie before (Jump goes in, misses a few threes, then boom, TREY CITY!).

Also, the crowd erupted when she made the first one. Probably the loudest cheers of the night.

BC

[Viking_Guy]

Gotta say, that end of season stretch is looking like an absolute beast right now.

First, this weekend at the Washingtons, with Washington first coming off two heart-breaking OT losses to the LAs.  Then the always-fun winter trip to the Palouse, and the inevitable rehashing of the scrappy Cougars finally trying to knock off the Cardinal.

Then at home vs the LAs.  Onyonwere is back, and then we get to be beaten up by USC, just before departing for...

The Mountains.  With Utah first, then a guaranteed to be a brawl game against Colorado.  So, beaten up again and coming back for...

The Oregons at home.  Somewhat luckily, Oregon State first.  But then a President's Day tilt against Oregon, followed by only three days rest before...

The roadtrip to Arizona, starting in Tuscon at 5:00 pm on a Friday, then Tempe at 11 AM on Sunday.  We actually have a lot of Friday evening/early Sunday weekends coming up, which adds to the brutality.

Good lord.

One thing I'm trying to keep track of this year - Geno vs. Tara for the first to pass Pat Summitt's win total.

Compare these games to the Evil Empire (Blue) edition.  They will play a grand total of five ranked teams this season.  Beat Depaul and ranked (? but RPI 51) Tennessee, lost to Baylor, with Oregon in Storrs and South Carolina on the road left.  Other than that, the next highest rated team in their conference is Temple, at RPI 54.  If they don't beat Oregon or the Gamecocks, Stanford will have at least seven games and perhaps as many as nine against teams better than the Huskies' best win this season.

And of course, as I say this they played team USA close, with former UConn players not named Sue Bird shooting a combined 5-21 against their former team.  But Syl Fowles killed them inside.  Even with Geno's refs - at one point late in the game, UConn had shot 18 FTs to USA's 4 (ahem.) Final score USA 79-64.

Geno won't do it this year - needs 21 wins with a max of 19 games remaining, 10 regular, 3 AAC tourney, and possible 6 (though I doubt it) NCAA games.  Tara has the same set up, needing 16 wins.

VG

[Viking_Guy]

Gotta say, that end of season stretch is looking like an absolute beast right now.

First, this weekend at the Washingtons, with Washington first coming off two heart-breaking OT losses to the LAs.  Then the always-fun winter trip to the Palouse, and the inevitable rehashing of the scrappy Cougars finally trying to knock off the Cardinal.

Then at home vs the LAs.  Onyonwere is back, and then we get to be beaten up by USC, just before departing for...

The Mountains.  With Utah first, then a guaranteed to be a brawl game against Colorado.  So, beaten up again and coming back for...

The Oregons at home.  Somewhat luckily, Oregon State first.  But then a President's Day tilt against Oregon, followed by only three days rest before...

The roadtrip to Arizona, starting in Tuscon at 5:00 pm on a Friday, then Tempe at 11 AM on Sunday.  We actually have a lot of Friday evening/early Sunday weekends coming up, which adds to the brutality.

Good lord.

One thing I'm trying to keep track of this year - Geno vs. Tara for the first to pass Pat Summitt's win total.

Compare these games to the Evil Empire (Blue) edition.  They will play a grand total of five ranked teams this season.  Beat Depaul and ranked (? but RPI 51) Tennessee, lost to Baylor, with Oregon in Storrs and South Carolina on the road left.  Other than that, the next highest rated team in their conference is Temple, at RPI 54.  If they don't beat Oregon or the Gamecocks, Stanford will have at least seven games and perhaps as many as nine against teams better than the Huskies' best win this season.

And of course, as I say this they played team USA close, with former UConn players not named Sue Bird shooting a combined 5-21 against their former team.  But Syl Fowles killed them inside.  Even with Geno's refs - at one point late in the game, UConn had shot 18 FTs to USA's 4 (ahem.) Final score USA 79-64.

Geno won't do it this year - needs 21 wins with a max of 19 games remaining, 10 regular, 3 AAC tourney, and possible 6 (though I doubt it) NCAA games.  Tara has the same set up, needing 16 wins.

VG

[Viking_Guy]

The wins list I was consulting was out of date; Tara needs 13 to tie, 14 to pass Pat. I think she has 1085, and Geno has 1080. Geno would have to win out to break the record this year, but wouldn't be amazing if Tara could break it in the NCAA tourney?  Against some good competition?

And hoping Geno finds the Ducks, Gamecocks, and maybe even one other team a bit much.  

As I updated, I looked at who they had played - Stanford with three wins at RPI #16 OSU, and against #97 Utah and #43 Colorado at home.  UConn with the aforementioned win over the #51 Vols, but then two, ahem, great wins against #216 Tulsa and #271 (!) East Carolina.

Sorry, as a CT expat, I have to deal with a bit too much Geno worship <grin>. Sometimes I overreact.  But every team in the Pac-12 is ranked higher than the middle of the AAC (#11 in Pac-12 UW is RPI 107; #12 is Cal at 127; in the AAC, #6 Tulane is #125, # 7 Memphis is 160).  If the Huskies lose either of the two marquee games, I think they're out of the running for a 1 seed.  If they lose both, they might be a 3.

A consummation devoutly to be wished.

VG

[Viking_Guy]

The wins list I was consulting was out of date; Tara needs 13 to tie, 14 to pass Pat. I think she has 1085, and Geno has 1080. Geno would have to win out to break the record this year, but wouldn't be amazing if Tara could break it in the NCAA tourney?  Against some good competition?

And hoping Geno finds the Ducks, Gamecocks, and maybe even one other team a bit much.  

As I updated, I looked at who they had played - Stanford with three wins at RPI #16 OSU, and against #97 Utah and #43 Colorado at home.  UConn with the aforementioned win over the #51 Vols, but then two, ahem, great wins against #216 Tulsa and #271 (!) East Carolina.

Sorry, as a CT expat, I have to deal with a bit too much Geno worship <grin>. Sometimes I overreact.  But every team in the Pac-12 is ranked higher than the middle of the AAC (#11 in Pac-12 UW is RPI 107; #12 is Cal at 127; in the AAC, #6 Tulane is #125, # 7 Memphis is 160).  If the Huskies lose either of the two marquee games, I think they're out of the running for a 1 seed.  If they lose both, they might be a 3.

A consummation devoutly to be wished.

VG

[81alum]

The wins list I was consulting was out of date; Tara needs 13 to tie, 14 to pass Pat. I think she has 1085, and Geno has 1080. Geno would have to win out to break the record this year, but wouldn't be amazing if Tara could break it in the NCAA tourney?  Against some good competition?

And hoping Geno finds the Ducks, Gamecocks, and maybe even one other team a bit much.  

As I updated, I looked at who they had played - Stanford with three wins at RPI #16 OSU, and against #97 Utah and #43 Colorado at home.  UConn with the aforementioned win over the #51 Vols, but then two, ahem, great wins against #216 Tulsa and #271 (!) East Carolina.

Sorry, as a CT expat, I have to deal with a bit too much Geno worship <grin>. Sometimes I overreact.  But every team in the Pac-12 is ranked higher than the middle of the AAC (#11 in Pac-12 UW is RPI 107; #12 is Cal at 127; in the AAC, #6 Tulane is #125, # 7 Memphis is 160).  If the Huskies lose either of the two marquee games, I think they're out of the running for a 1 seed.  If they lose both, they might be a 3.

A consummation devoutly to be wished.

VG

I wish I understood RPI better.  How can UConn be 7 in RPI when it plays so many patsies? 

Strength of schedule is:
1 Virginia
2 South Carolina
3 Indiana
4 Maryland
5 Oregon
6 Oregon State
7 Ohio State
8 Baylor
9 Stanford
10 Duke
11 Iowa
12 UConn

[81alum]

The wins list I was consulting was out of date; Tara needs 13 to tie, 14 to pass Pat. I think she has 1085, and Geno has 1080. Geno would have to win out to break the record this year, but wouldn't be amazing if Tara could break it in the NCAA tourney?  Against some good competition?

And hoping Geno finds the Ducks, Gamecocks, and maybe even one other team a bit much.  

As I updated, I looked at who they had played - Stanford with three wins at RPI #16 OSU, and against #97 Utah and #43 Colorado at home.  UConn with the aforementioned win over the #51 Vols, but then two, ahem, great wins against #216 Tulsa and #271 (!) East Carolina.

Sorry, as a CT expat, I have to deal with a bit too much Geno worship <grin>. Sometimes I overreact.  But every team in the Pac-12 is ranked higher than the middle of the AAC (#11 in Pac-12 UW is RPI 107; #12 is Cal at 127; in the AAC, #6 Tulane is #125, # 7 Memphis is 160).  If the Huskies lose either of the two marquee games, I think they're out of the running for a 1 seed.  If they lose both, they might be a 3.

A consummation devoutly to be wished.

VG

I wish I understood RPI better.  How can UConn be 7 in RPI when it plays so many patsies? 

Strength of schedule is:
1 Virginia
2 South Carolina
3 Indiana
4 Maryland
5 Oregon
6 Oregon State
7 Ohio State
8 Baylor
9 Stanford
10 Duke
11 Iowa
12 UConn

[M T]

Geno won't do it this year - needs 21 18 wins with a max of 19 games remaining, 10 regular, 3 [conference] tourney, and possible 6 ... NCAA games.  Tara has the same set up, needing 16 13 wins [to tie]

Confirming: Per Wikipedia, Tara had 1067 before this year, while Geno had 1062.  Both have 18 wins this year (1085 vs 1080). Pat Summit's record is 1098.  So, 13 vs 18 wins to go to tie the record.

I say to ignore the record and look forward to Tara & Stanford to get 19 more games this season!   If they make 19 games, that's at least 7 post-season wins, meaning the record is tied even with 4 regular season losses.

I surely don't want to hope her 13th (#1098, tying Pat)  & 14th (#1099) wins are in significant NCAA games.  I want at least one of them at home in the first 2 rounds.

---

Here I'm running the numbers, focusing on losses before the NCAA seedings & tourney... not predicting any more than I would account for possible outcomes of dice rolls.

NCAA RPI: 1 So Car.; 2 Oregon; 3 Louisville; 4 Iowa; 5 Stanford; 6 UCLA; 7 UConn; 8 MD; 9 Baylor;...13 OrSt
AP:  1 So Car; 2 Baylor; 3 Oregon; 4 UConn; 5 Louisville; 6 Stanford; 7 NC St; 8 UCLA; 9 MissSt; 10 OrSt; 19 ASU

If any of UCLA, Oregon, or Stanford play in the PAC-12 finals, that will be their 5th top-10 matchup in 13 games.  For Oregon State, it would be their 4th.  (Should ASU or Arizona gets there, it might be their 7th game against a top-10 team in 13 games!)

Prior to the PAC-12 tourney, relevant (current) top-10 match ups are:  Stanford vs (h)UCLA, (h)Oregon, (h)OrSt; UCLA vs (a)Stanford, (h)Oregon, (h)OrSt;  Oregon vs (a)UConn, (a)Stanford, (a) UCLA; Oregon State vs (a)Stanford, (a)UCLA;  UConn vs (h)Oregon, (a)So.Carolina.   This is not to say that the other games (ASU, etc) are easy; but they aren't a top-10 team.  Personally, I would not discount ASU or even Arizona.  And Stanford has to play Colorado again, this time at their place.

Any of those teams might lose as many as 4 games, just in top-10 matchups, plus any losses while a team blinks.  The most successful team might even lose two games.   Should one of those teams win out, I have to imagine they'd easily have #1 RPI.  I could conceive that a single loss and 4 wins against top-10 opponents might result in a #1 RPI.  Having a 3-2 record against top-10 teams ought to boost RPI.  A 2-2 record might also have a positive effect.

While too much to really hope for, if Stanford were to run the gauntlet undefeated (0 losses) through the PAC-12 tourney, the 13th win would be in Las Vegas (which would be all right by me!) with the 14th likely at home in the NCAA tourney.  (I surely hope we don't lose 2 more players as we did in the loss that shall not be named.)   If Stanford has 1, or even 2 losses (but get to final round of PAC12 tourney) and don't fall apart in the first 2 rounds of the NCAA tourney, the 13th win would be at Stanford.  If they lose more (which, unfortunately, is possible), the tying game would be in the regionals (or later).

If Stanford has 3 losses before the NCAA tourney, there is still a decent chance for Tara to catch or even pass Pat this year.  A #6 team should reasonably win at least 3 NCAA tournament games.

Should Stanford win only 9 games (4 losses, or 3 including a semi-final exit from the PAC-12 tournament) before the NCAA tourney, then Stanford would have to win regionals to get to 13 wins.  Certainly possible, but tough.   While hope may not be gone for 5 or even 6 losses before NCAAs, the team has to perform practically perfectly to get to 13 wins.  7 or more losses means the record lasts to next year, and Geno might get it before Tara.

You will hear the announcers say that the PAC-12 teams will be well honed for the NCAA tournament because of these games.  While I hope that physical injuries are non-existent, I have to wonder about the mental strain of so many important matches, with no real easy games to coast through.  Can the PAC-12 teams continue to be at their toughest for so many games?

---

The regionals this year are at Portland(OR), Fort Wayne(IN), Greenville(SC), Dallas(TX).  I think Stanford would have to win out to have a prayer of playing at the closest (670 miles) venue.  Personally, I hope the NCAA will split the top several teams of the PAC-12 into different regionals (but my cynical side recognizes that East Coast basketball will want 2 of the top 4 PAC-12 teams to play in Portland.)

If UConn were to win all games up until the regional final (ie, beat Oregon & South Carolina), a regional final win would be one short of Pat Summit's record.  One loss in the regular season means the best Geno could do is tie with a national championship.  I wouldn't discount that.

I imagine the ESPN PR team is already lobbying for a 2 for 1 opportunity.  First a good chance of a game between UConn and Stanford where Tara might be within 1 (either over or under) the record, in a regional game.   Secondly, a pre-season tournament game next fall, where UConn (and, if things go badly for Stanford, perhaps Stanford) are trying to make history.  (I predict a tournament with UConn, Stanford, and Tennessee and ??).

So I think UConn will be aligned to play Stanford in the regional finals.  Baylor will likely be #1 in Dallas; So.Carolina in Greenville; likely Oregon in Portland.   If I were a betting man, I'd bet that UConn and Stanford (and Louisville) are headed to the Indiana regionals, almost no matter what games are won or lost by those teams.  Whether they will be aligned to meet in the regional semis or finals may depend upon their wins between now and when the NCAA announces the seedings.

While I of course hope for a Stanford national championship this year (and think such hope is not unreasonable, albeit a bit of a reach), I really am hoping that Tara gets win #1099 (and, hey, a nice round #1100 #1104 as well)  this year, I will be happy as long as she gets to #1098 to tie Pat Summit.  It will give her an off-season of recognition before Geno steps on her heels.

Stanford has been hot and cold.  They may have the heart to win it all, and the talent to do that maybe next year, but they've been depleted.  While the Oregon game may have been a punch in the gut, the Colorado game may have been the slap in the face that makes them bear down for their remaining games.

If I were to lay down a challenge for the team, it would be to keep Tara in front of Geno through next year.  That's a tall order.  But, they've done that so far this year.


P.S. If you were wondering who might coach longer than the other, there is less than a year's difference in their ages.  At this point, I'd have to guess that if either coaches one year longer than the other, that person will have the record.  I'd guess the individual variability of life's blessings and hurdles will determine who winds up with the record.  I truly do wish each coaches as long as he/she wants.

[M T]

Geno won't do it this year - needs 21 18 wins with a max of 19 games remaining, 10 regular, 3 [conference] tourney, and possible 6 ... NCAA games.  Tara has the same set up, needing 16 13 wins [to tie]

Confirming: Per Wikipedia, Tara had 1067 before this year, while Geno had 1062.  Both have 18 wins this year (1085 vs 1080). Pat Summit's record is 1098.  So, 13 vs 18 wins to go to tie the record.

I say to ignore the record and look forward to Tara & Stanford to get 19 more games this season!   If they make 19 games, that's at least 7 post-season wins, meaning the record is tied even with 4 regular season losses.

I surely don't want to hope her 13th (#1098, tying Pat)  & 14th (#1099) wins are in significant NCAA games.  I want at least one of them at home in the first 2 rounds.

---

Here I'm running the numbers, focusing on losses before the NCAA seedings & tourney... not predicting any more than I would account for possible outcomes of dice rolls.

NCAA RPI: 1 So Car.; 2 Oregon; 3 Louisville; 4 Iowa; 5 Stanford; 6 UCLA; 7 UConn; 8 MD; 9 Baylor;...13 OrSt
AP:  1 So Car; 2 Baylor; 3 Oregon; 4 UConn; 5 Louisville; 6 Stanford; 7 NC St; 8 UCLA; 9 MissSt; 10 OrSt; 19 ASU

If any of UCLA, Oregon, or Stanford play in the PAC-12 finals, that will be their 5th top-10 matchup in 13 games.  For Oregon State, it would be their 4th.  (Should ASU or Arizona gets there, it might be their 7th game against a top-10 team in 13 games!)

Prior to the PAC-12 tourney, relevant (current) top-10 match ups are:  Stanford vs (h)UCLA, (h)Oregon, (h)OrSt; UCLA vs (a)Stanford, (h)Oregon, (h)OrSt;  Oregon vs (a)UConn, (a)Stanford, (a) UCLA; Oregon State vs (a)Stanford, (a)UCLA;  UConn vs (h)Oregon, (a)So.Carolina.   This is not to say that the other games (ASU, etc) are easy; but they aren't a top-10 team.  Personally, I would not discount ASU or even Arizona.  And Stanford has to play Colorado again, this time at their place.

Any of those teams might lose as many as 4 games, just in top-10 matchups, plus any losses while a team blinks.  The most successful team might even lose two games.   Should one of those teams win out, I have to imagine they'd easily have #1 RPI.  I could conceive that a single loss and 4 wins against top-10 opponents might result in a #1 RPI.  Having a 3-2 record against top-10 teams ought to boost RPI.  A 2-2 record might also have a positive effect.

While too much to really hope for, if Stanford were to run the gauntlet undefeated (0 losses) through the PAC-12 tourney, the 13th win would be in Las Vegas (which would be all right by me!) with the 14th likely at home in the NCAA tourney.  (I surely hope we don't lose 2 more players as we did in the loss that shall not be named.)   If Stanford has 1, or even 2 losses (but get to final round of PAC12 tourney) and don't fall apart in the first 2 rounds of the NCAA tourney, the 13th win would be at Stanford.  If they lose more (which, unfortunately, is possible), the tying game would be in the regionals (or later).

If Stanford has 3 losses before the NCAA tourney, there is still a decent chance for Tara to catch or even pass Pat this year.  A #6 team should reasonably win at least 3 NCAA tournament games.

Should Stanford win only 9 games (4 losses, or 3 including a semi-final exit from the PAC-12 tournament) before the NCAA tourney, then Stanford would have to win regionals to get to 13 wins.  Certainly possible, but tough.   While hope may not be gone for 5 or even 6 losses before NCAAs, the team has to perform practically perfectly to get to 13 wins.  7 or more losses means the record lasts to next year, and Geno might get it before Tara.

You will hear the announcers say that the PAC-12 teams will be well honed for the NCAA tournament because of these games.  While I hope that physical injuries are non-existent, I have to wonder about the mental strain of so many important matches, with no real easy games to coast through.  Can the PAC-12 teams continue to be at their toughest for so many games?

---

The regionals this year are at Portland(OR), Fort Wayne(IN), Greenville(SC), Dallas(TX).  I think Stanford would have to win out to have a prayer of playing at the closest (670 miles) venue.  Personally, I hope the NCAA will split the top several teams of the PAC-12 into different regionals (but my cynical side recognizes that East Coast basketball will want 2 of the top 4 PAC-12 teams to play in Portland.)

If UConn were to win all games up until the regional final (ie, beat Oregon & South Carolina), a regional final win would be one short of Pat Summit's record.  One loss in the regular season means the best Geno could do is tie with a national championship.  I wouldn't discount that.

I imagine the ESPN PR team is already lobbying for a 2 for 1 opportunity.  First a good chance of a game between UConn and Stanford where Tara might be within 1 (either over or under) the record, in a regional game.   Secondly, a pre-season tournament game next fall, where UConn (and, if things go badly for Stanford, perhaps Stanford) are trying to make history.  (I predict a tournament with UConn, Stanford, and Tennessee and ??).

So I think UConn will be aligned to play Stanford in the regional finals.  Baylor will likely be #1 in Dallas; So.Carolina in Greenville; likely Oregon in Portland.   If I were a betting man, I'd bet that UConn and Stanford (and Louisville) are headed to the Indiana regionals, almost no matter what games are won or lost by those teams.  Whether they will be aligned to meet in the regional semis or finals may depend upon their wins between now and when the NCAA announces the seedings.

While I of course hope for a Stanford national championship this year (and think such hope is not unreasonable, albeit a bit of a reach), I really am hoping that Tara gets win #1099 (and, hey, a nice round #1100 #1104 as well)  this year, I will be happy as long as she gets to #1098 to tie Pat Summit.  It will give her an off-season of recognition before Geno steps on her heels.

Stanford has been hot and cold.  They may have the heart to win it all, and the talent to do that maybe next year, but they've been depleted.  While the Oregon game may have been a punch in the gut, the Colorado game may have been the slap in the face that makes them bear down for their remaining games.

If I were to lay down a challenge for the team, it would be to keep Tara in front of Geno through next year.  That's a tall order.  But, they've done that so far this year.


P.S. If you were wondering who might coach longer than the other, there is less than a year's difference in their ages.  At this point, I'd have to guess that if either coaches one year longer than the other, that person will have the record.  I'd guess the individual variability of life's blessings and hurdles will determine who winds up with the record.  I truly do wish each coaches as long as he/she wants.

[M T]

I wish I understood RPI better.  How can UConn be 7 in RPI when it plays so many patsies? 

Strength of schedule is:
1 Virginia
2 South Carolina
3 Indiana
4 Maryland
5 Oregon
6 Oregon State
7 Ohio State
8 Baylor
9 Stanford
10 Duke
11 Iowa
12 UConn

I'm not sure where/when you got SoS from.  It looks suspect to me (as to you).
I'll use RealTimeRPI (These are SoS rankings, not their RPI rankings) as of Monday night.
I'm going to calculate something easier to calculate:  Winning percentage of opponents (including games against the team).  I don't claim this is better, just that it is easier to comprehend.  (Call it "SoSo".)
I will calculate two numbers: one for opponents in games already played, one for opponents on schedule (past or future). (If an opponent is played twice, its win-loss record is used twice.)
1. Virginia 72.2% (68.4%)
7. Oregon State  63.1% (64.4%)
10. Oregon 61.9% (64.6%)
12. So. Carolina 60.4% (63.1%)
16. Stanford 58.7% (62.7%)
30. UConn 55.3% (58.9%)
35. UCLA 57.8% (61.7%)

By however RealTimeRPI calculates SoS, it does appear that UConn is more highly ranked that this more simplistic estimation of opponents' strength.

Note that if you looked only at the PAC-10 conference games in 1995-1996 when Stanford went 18-0 in conference, the SoSo for Stanford calculated as I did would have been
    (conf games not won by Stanford)/ (2 teams/game * conf games) = (18*9)/(2* 18*10) = 45%
The in-conference SoSo for a hypothetical team that went 0-18 that year would be exactly 50%.
SoSo and, to a lesser extent, SoS are weak measures when a lot of games are played amongst your opponents.

[M T]

I wish I understood RPI better.  How can UConn be 7 in RPI when it plays so many patsies? 

Strength of schedule is:
1 Virginia
2 South Carolina
3 Indiana
4 Maryland
5 Oregon
6 Oregon State
7 Ohio State
8 Baylor
9 Stanford
10 Duke
11 Iowa
12 UConn

I'm not sure where/when you got SoS from.  It looks suspect to me (as to you).
I'll use RealTimeRPI (These are SoS rankings, not their RPI rankings) as of Monday night.
I'm going to calculate something easier to calculate:  Winning percentage of opponents (including games against the team).  I don't claim this is better, just that it is easier to comprehend.  (Call it "SoSo".)
I will calculate two numbers: one for opponents in games already played, one for opponents on schedule (past or future). (If an opponent is played twice, its win-loss record is used twice.)
1. Virginia 72.2% (68.4%)
7. Oregon State  63.1% (64.4%)
10. Oregon 61.9% (64.6%)
12. So. Carolina 60.4% (63.1%)
16. Stanford 58.7% (62.7%)
30. UConn 55.3% (58.9%)
35. UCLA 57.8% (61.7%)

By however RealTimeRPI calculates SoS, it does appear that UConn is more highly ranked that this more simplistic estimation of opponents' strength.

Note that if you looked only at the PAC-10 conference games in 1995-1996 when Stanford went 18-0 in conference, the SoSo for Stanford calculated as I did would have been
    (conf games not won by Stanford)/ (2 teams/game * conf games) = (18*9)/(2* 18*10) = 45%
The in-conference SoSo for a hypothetical team that went 0-18 that year would be exactly 50%.
SoSo and, to a lesser extent, SoS are weak measures when a lot of games are played amongst your opponents.

[teejers1]

-Given how tightlipped the coaches have been about Jones' status (who, I'll note, did not seem to be on the bench with the rest of the team), I found this line from the NY Times article especially noteworthy: "VanDerveer has remained optimistic of Jones returning this season."

If so, that is a considerably rosier picture than I feel like we've gotten so far, because "this season" really only has about 8-9 weeks left in it, which would rule out any really serious injuries.

Hmm.  Has Tara really said she is optimistic about Haley's return this season?  I've seen statements to effect that Stanford is optimistic about her recovery/return, but I've never seen a timeline associated with that.  Is it possible NYT is just assuming the timing part?

And btw, we sit near the Stanford bench in corner end zone and Haley was again not there with her teammates.  That strikes me as a very not good sign on the recovery front, at least on the "play this season" front.  But who knows, maybe the coaches just gave her X weeks to recover and stay up on the studies front (though missing games still seems odd).

[teejers1]

-Given how tightlipped the coaches have been about Jones' status (who, I'll note, did not seem to be on the bench with the rest of the team), I found this line from the NY Times article especially noteworthy: "VanDerveer has remained optimistic of Jones returning this season."

If so, that is a considerably rosier picture than I feel like we've gotten so far, because "this season" really only has about 8-9 weeks left in it, which would rule out any really serious injuries.

Hmm.  Has Tara really said she is optimistic about Haley's return this season?  I've seen statements to effect that Stanford is optimistic about her recovery/return, but I've never seen a timeline associated with that.  Is it possible NYT is just assuming the timing part?

And btw, we sit near the Stanford bench in corner end zone and Haley was again not there with her teammates.  That strikes me as a very not good sign on the recovery front, at least on the "play this season" front.  But who knows, maybe the coaches just gave her X weeks to recover and stay up on the studies front (though missing games still seems odd).