[magnus]

Prior planning prevents piss poor performance.

BC

Proper prior planning prevents poor pandemic performance?

[magnus]

Prior planning prevents piss poor performance.

BC

Proper prior planning prevents poor pandemic performance?

[oldalum]

Prior planning prevents piss poor performance.

BC

Proper prior planning prevents poor pandemic performance?

Proper prior planning positively prevents particularly poor pandemic public policy performance.

[oldalum]

Prior planning prevents piss poor performance.

BC

Proper prior planning prevents poor pandemic performance?

Proper prior planning positively prevents particularly poor pandemic public policy performance.

[M T]

Darn...  Saturday's new cases in SCC hit 55.   Delayed results?

And, Friday's new cases in SCC dropped to 17 ! Yeah!
San Francisco county dropped from 56 new cases Thursday to 29 on Friday.

New cases in California are starting to slow percentage-wise (from up 26% Thursday to up 22% Friday), presumably due to the Bay Area's early shelter-in-place order.  The statewide order should start showing up in new case numbers on Monday.

And, today, the new case count is 32, down 51 compared to yesterday.
I wouldn't be surprised if that's lower than it should be, but I think this does indicate the corner is being turned.

[M T]

Darn...  Saturday's new cases in SCC hit 55.   Delayed results?

And, Friday's new cases in SCC dropped to 17 ! Yeah!
San Francisco county dropped from 56 new cases Thursday to 29 on Friday.

New cases in California are starting to slow percentage-wise (from up 26% Thursday to up 22% Friday), presumably due to the Bay Area's early shelter-in-place order.  The statewide order should start showing up in new case numbers on Monday.

And, today, the new case count is 32, down 51 compared to yesterday.
I wouldn't be surprised if that's lower than it should be, but I think this does indicate the corner is being turned.

[2006alum]

It's a shame that they aren't reporting hospitalizations, because the only two really useful statistics are hospitalizations and deaths, and those are only useful when we can assess them over time. And for all data, we should be focusing on multi-day averages rather than day to day changes, because of processing and reporting delays, etc. And remember how inconsistent testing protocols are, even within jurisdictions. See these cogent Nate Silver tweets on this:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1243335453140553728?s=20[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1243948150173380608?s=20[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1243656263482949635?s=20[/tweet]

It's actually kind of horrifying to realize how blindly public health officials are having to fly, given limitations on testing. Unless and until "everyone who wants a test can get tested," the problems we confront to day will be those that were set in stone 3-4 weeks ago. The lag between exposure and hospitalization is generally at least two weeks, and exposure to death 3-4.

[2006alum]

It's a shame that they aren't reporting hospitalizations, because the only two really useful statistics are hospitalizations and deaths, and those are only useful when we can assess them over time. And for all data, we should be focusing on multi-day averages rather than day to day changes, because of processing and reporting delays, etc. And remember how inconsistent testing protocols are, even within jurisdictions. See these cogent Nate Silver tweets on this:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1243335453140553728?s=20[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1243948150173380608?s=20[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1243656263482949635?s=20[/tweet]

It's actually kind of horrifying to realize how blindly public health officials are having to fly, given limitations on testing. Unless and until "everyone who wants a test can get tested," the problems we confront to day will be those that were set in stone 3-4 weeks ago. The lag between exposure and hospitalization is generally at least two weeks, and exposure to death 3-4.

[BostonCard]

New York Times has county by county data, here:

https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data

BC

[BostonCard]

New York Times has county by county data, here:

https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data

BC

[2006alum]

These are the kinds of anecdotes that make me focus more on hospital admissions and deaths than on tests:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/SarahVarney4/status/1244410955200524289?s=20[/tweet]

[2006alum]

These are the kinds of anecdotes that make me focus more on hospital admissions and deaths than on tests:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/SarahVarney4/status/1244410955200524289?s=20[/tweet]

[oldalum]

SCC cases ticked back up to 55 (from 17) yesterday.
 
A 3-day moving average over the past week looks like:
  52    53   66   44  35

So maybe a downtrend?

[oldalum]

SCC cases ticked back up to 55 (from 17) yesterday.
 
A 3-day moving average over the past week looks like:
  52    53   66   44  35

So maybe a downtrend?

[Goose]

Prior planning prevents piss poor performance.

BC

Amen. Now if they can execute the "dance" we can all be happy. Hope they can.

[Goose]

Prior planning prevents piss poor performance.

BC

Amen. Now if they can execute the "dance" we can all be happy. Hope they can.

[M T]

This may be of interest, but to me, it seems like old data in these fast moving times.  Had they made numeric predictions for the number of cases 1 to 4 weeks out from March 17, it would have been of more interest to me.
  Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Prevalence in Santa Clara County
[url=https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20043067v1][/url]
Their slowest, best guess, fastest rates of case growth were 10.52%, 15%, 22.14%.
They estimated the prevalence to have been between 0.08% (n=1481) and 1.38% (n=26,389), with best guess of 0.34%(n=6513) on March 17.

As I said, they didn't do any predictions.  I calculate the average daily growth in hospitalizations from March 17 to March 24 (just before the new cases dropped) was 11.8%.  (Confirmed cases grew an average of 14.5% during that time.)

The growth rate March 17 to 24 may be lower than up to March 17 due to increased publicity and concern, and a resultant behavioral change by the population.

[M T]

This may be of interest, but to me, it seems like old data in these fast moving times.  Had they made numeric predictions for the number of cases 1 to 4 weeks out from March 17, it would have been of more interest to me.
  Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Prevalence in Santa Clara County
[url=https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20043067v1][/url]
Their slowest, best guess, fastest rates of case growth were 10.52%, 15%, 22.14%.
They estimated the prevalence to have been between 0.08% (n=1481) and 1.38% (n=26,389), with best guess of 0.34%(n=6513) on March 17.

As I said, they didn't do any predictions.  I calculate the average daily growth in hospitalizations from March 17 to March 24 (just before the new cases dropped) was 11.8%.  (Confirmed cases grew an average of 14.5% during that time.)

The growth rate March 17 to 24 may be lower than up to March 17 due to increased publicity and concern, and a resultant behavioral change by the population.

[OutsiderFan]

When the Abbot Labs tests start rolling out that can do tests in 10 mins, the world will start getting really accurate data for the first time.

I hope there are more efforts to test entire cities so we can start picking up asymptomatic infections, because not surprisingly, research shows asymptomatic spread is the most common maybe beyond healthcare workers getting from symptomatic patients.

Abbot Labs says it will start producing 50,000 test kits per day starting April 1. I’m not sure if this is one time tests or if each testing system made can test as many as 5 per hour. My understanding is it is the latter, and we are finally getting exponential growth in testing capacity to match and exceed virus spread.

[OutsiderFan]

When the Abbot Labs tests start rolling out that can do tests in 10 mins, the world will start getting really accurate data for the first time.

I hope there are more efforts to test entire cities so we can start picking up asymptomatic infections, because not surprisingly, research shows asymptomatic spread is the most common maybe beyond healthcare workers getting from symptomatic patients.

Abbot Labs says it will start producing 50,000 test kits per day starting April 1. I’m not sure if this is one time tests or if each testing system made can test as many as 5 per hour. My understanding is it is the latter, and we are finally getting exponential growth in testing capacity to match and exceed virus spread.

[Mick]

SCC cases ticked back up to 55 (from 17) yesterday.
 
A 3-day moving average over the past week looks like:
  52    53   66   44  35

So maybe a downtrend?

Good question.  Does this represent a downtrend?  I can't tell.

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/Disease...board.aspx

---

When the Abbot Labs tests start rolling out that can do tests in 10 mins, the world will start getting really accurate data for the first time.

I hope there are more efforts to test entire cities so we can start picking up asymptomatic infections, because not surprisingly, research shows asymptomatic spread is the most common maybe beyond healthcare workers getting from symptomatic patients.

Abbot Labs says it will start producing 50,000 test kits per day starting April 1. I’m not sure if this is one time tests or if each testing system made can test as many as 5 per hour. My understanding is it is the latter, and we are finally getting exponential growth in testing capacity to match and exceed virus spread.

The Abbott Labs announcement was interesting. So was Gilead Sciences' announcement that the clinical trials of Remdesivir had progressed well enough to change their status from "compassionate use" to "expanded access."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...id-19-drug

[Mick]

SCC cases ticked back up to 55 (from 17) yesterday.
 
A 3-day moving average over the past week looks like:
  52    53   66   44  35

So maybe a downtrend?

Good question.  Does this represent a downtrend?  I can't tell.

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/Disease...board.aspx

---

When the Abbot Labs tests start rolling out that can do tests in 10 mins, the world will start getting really accurate data for the first time.

I hope there are more efforts to test entire cities so we can start picking up asymptomatic infections, because not surprisingly, research shows asymptomatic spread is the most common maybe beyond healthcare workers getting from symptomatic patients.

Abbot Labs says it will start producing 50,000 test kits per day starting April 1. I’m not sure if this is one time tests or if each testing system made can test as many as 5 per hour. My understanding is it is the latter, and we are finally getting exponential growth in testing capacity to match and exceed virus spread.

The Abbott Labs announcement was interesting. So was Gilead Sciences' announcement that the clinical trials of Remdesivir had progressed well enough to change their status from "compassionate use" to "expanded access."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...id-19-drug

[BostonCard]

When the Abbot Labs tests start rolling out that can do tests in 10 mins, the world will start getting really accurate data for the first time.



I hope there are more efforts to test entire cities so we can start picking up asymptomatic infections, because not surprisingly, research shows asymptomatic spread is the most common maybe beyond healthcare workers getting from symptomatic patients.



Abbot Labs says it will start producing 50,000 test kits per day starting April 1. I’m not sure if this is one time tests or if each testing system made can test as many as 5 per hour. My understanding is it is the latter, and we are finally getting exponential growth in testing capacity to match and exceed virus spread.

The Abbott test is a POC (point of care) test.  While it returns results quickly, it can only run one test at a time, so its throughput is not as great as the large automated tests that can be run centrally and can run thousands of tests within a day.  Those return results more slowly (because after collection, the material needs to be sent to the lab processed and run, but those machines can run a lot of tests quickly.  The Abbott test is most useful for healthcare workers (who would need to be cleared quickly if they want to return to work).  There are probably a number of other potential use cases where speed is critical, but it is probably best to approach most potential Covid-19 patients empirically.  Basically, assume they are infected, advise them and treat them as if they are infected (but also treat for other potential causes of the symptoms, like influenza) and send the Covid-19 test for confirmation.  Knowing the diagnosis for sure wouldn't change management in many cases, since patients with mild symptoms will be told to self-quarantine anyways, and patients with severe symptoms will be given supportive care.

Oh, one other potential use case is entry into clinical trials, if the inclusion criteria require a documented positive test.

BC

---

The Abbott Labs announcement was interesting.  So was Gilead Sciences' announcement that the clinical trials of Remdesivir had progressed well enough to change their status from "compassionate use" to "expanded access."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...id-19-drug

This might just reflect that they have managed to manufacture enough of it to provide it more readily, or that they are getting overwhelmed with the administrative burden of adjudicating compassionate use claims.  That being said, given the sheer number of cases, I do expect clinical trials to start producing results soonish, since recruiting patients shouldn't be an issue.  A lot will depend on the endpoint, and for a mortality endpoint the clinical trial will have to run long (for example, 28 days) to be able to tell the difference in clinical course.

BC

[BostonCard]

When the Abbot Labs tests start rolling out that can do tests in 10 mins, the world will start getting really accurate data for the first time.



I hope there are more efforts to test entire cities so we can start picking up asymptomatic infections, because not surprisingly, research shows asymptomatic spread is the most common maybe beyond healthcare workers getting from symptomatic patients.



Abbot Labs says it will start producing 50,000 test kits per day starting April 1. I’m not sure if this is one time tests or if each testing system made can test as many as 5 per hour. My understanding is it is the latter, and we are finally getting exponential growth in testing capacity to match and exceed virus spread.

The Abbott test is a POC (point of care) test.  While it returns results quickly, it can only run one test at a time, so its throughput is not as great as the large automated tests that can be run centrally and can run thousands of tests within a day.  Those return results more slowly (because after collection, the material needs to be sent to the lab processed and run, but those machines can run a lot of tests quickly.  The Abbott test is most useful for healthcare workers (who would need to be cleared quickly if they want to return to work).  There are probably a number of other potential use cases where speed is critical, but it is probably best to approach most potential Covid-19 patients empirically.  Basically, assume they are infected, advise them and treat them as if they are infected (but also treat for other potential causes of the symptoms, like influenza) and send the Covid-19 test for confirmation.  Knowing the diagnosis for sure wouldn't change management in many cases, since patients with mild symptoms will be told to self-quarantine anyways, and patients with severe symptoms will be given supportive care.

Oh, one other potential use case is entry into clinical trials, if the inclusion criteria require a documented positive test.

BC

---

The Abbott Labs announcement was interesting.  So was Gilead Sciences' announcement that the clinical trials of Remdesivir had progressed well enough to change their status from "compassionate use" to "expanded access."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...id-19-drug

This might just reflect that they have managed to manufacture enough of it to provide it more readily, or that they are getting overwhelmed with the administrative burden of adjudicating compassionate use claims.  That being said, given the sheer number of cases, I do expect clinical trials to start producing results soonish, since recruiting patients shouldn't be an issue.  A lot will depend on the endpoint, and for a mortality endpoint the clinical trial will have to run long (for example, 28 days) to be able to tell the difference in clinical course.

BC

[oldalum]

Bad news: 202 new cases diagnosed  reported in SCC yesterday. Previous high was 84. 
So much for a possible downward trend.  :(   
Partly due to more widespread testing? more complete reporting? More health care workers testing positive? Many days delay in results after testing, perhaps combined with some shorter test periods in the last couple days?
(would really like some good news about now)

graph

[oldalum]

Bad news: 202 new cases diagnosed  reported in SCC yesterday. Previous high was 84. 
So much for a possible downward trend.  :(   
Partly due to more widespread testing? more complete reporting? More health care workers testing positive? Many days delay in results after testing, perhaps combined with some shorter test periods in the last couple days?
(would really like some good news about now)

graph

[BostonCard]

Bad news: 202 new cases diagnosed  reported in SCC yesterday. Previous high was 84. 
So much for a possible downward trend.  :(   
Partly due to more widespread testing? more complete reporting? More health care workers testing positive? Many days delay in results after testing, perhaps combined with some shorter test periods in the last couple days?
(would really like some good news about now)

graph

From the link:

March 30, 2020 Update: The 202 new confirmed cases reported today include some results that were not previously reported over the past two days. This increase reflects a reporting delay, not necessarily a significant single day increase. However, we expect that the overall number of confirmed cases will continue to rise as testing capacity increases. The Public Health Department will continue to provide available data to the public as quickly as possible.

Sounds like they are expecting some more cases for a few more days.

BC

[BostonCard]

Bad news: 202 new cases diagnosed  reported in SCC yesterday. Previous high was 84. 
So much for a possible downward trend.  :(   
Partly due to more widespread testing? more complete reporting? More health care workers testing positive? Many days delay in results after testing, perhaps combined with some shorter test periods in the last couple days?
(would really like some good news about now)

graph

From the link:

March 30, 2020 Update: The 202 new confirmed cases reported today include some results that were not previously reported over the past two days. This increase reflects a reporting delay, not necessarily a significant single day increase. However, we expect that the overall number of confirmed cases will continue to rise as testing capacity increases. The Public Health Department will continue to provide available data to the public as quickly as possible.

Sounds like they are expecting some more cases for a few more days.

BC

[oldalum]

From the link:

Thanks, I missed that due to the boilerplate above it.

[oldalum]

From the link:

Thanks, I missed that due to the boilerplate above it.

[Snorlax94]

According to the CA public health daily press releases, on Friday they had processed 23,480 tests with a backlog of 65,000 unprocessed tests, which means they had tested a lot more people, but the positive cases reflected less than 1/3 of the tests done in CA.

In Monday’s release, results had reflected 27,251 test results, still with 56,000 tests awaiting results. So, as the capability to process tests catches up to the greater number of tests, the number of positive cases could easily triple, or more, as more people can be tested.

https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA/Pag...-2020.aspx

[Snorlax94]

According to the CA public health daily press releases, on Friday they had processed 23,480 tests with a backlog of 65,000 unprocessed tests, which means they had tested a lot more people, but the positive cases reflected less than 1/3 of the tests done in CA.

In Monday’s release, results had reflected 27,251 test results, still with 56,000 tests awaiting results. So, as the capability to process tests catches up to the greater number of tests, the number of positive cases could easily triple, or more, as more people can be tested.

https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA/Pag...-2020.aspx

[oldalum]

March 30, 2020 Update: The 202 new confirmed cases reported today include some results that were not previously reported over the past two days. This increase reflects a reporting delay 

So why don't they just correct the prior days' totals to include the newly-reported results from those days? The legend of the graph says that the date of cases is the date of COVID-19 confirmation. Now that is no longer true, and it detracts from the utility of the graph.

[oldalum]

March 30, 2020 Update: The 202 new confirmed cases reported today include some results that were not previously reported over the past two days. This increase reflects a reporting delay 

So why don't they just correct the prior days' totals to include the newly-reported results from those days? The legend of the graph says that the date of cases is the date of COVID-19 confirmation. Now that is no longer true, and it detracts from the utility of the graph.

[OutsiderFan]

If these are the results in Santa Clara County that took early measures, in a state as much ahead of the curve on this due to early action as any in the country, it seems states like Florida, Texas, and flyover country that didn't act soon or haven't acted enough, will be absolutely eviscerated, similarly to New York.

[OutsiderFan]

If these are the results in Santa Clara County that took early measures, in a state as much ahead of the curve on this due to early action as any in the country, it seems states like Florida, Texas, and flyover country that didn't act soon or haven't acted enough, will be absolutely eviscerated, similarly to New York.

[Goose]

If these are the results in Santa Clara County that took early measures, in a state as much ahead of the curve on this due to early action as any in the country, it seems states like Florida, Texas, and flyover country that didn't act soon or haven't acted enough, will be absolutely eviscerated, similarly to New York.

Unfortunately, you could very well be right. One can hope that the community spread in these states is actually also behind where we were when we took action. This disease seems to be very population density sensitive. Large cities seem to be the biggest problem. Hopefully the lower density will help the fly-over states a good deal. Social distancing happens more by geometry. That said, Texas could be in big trouble in the large cities. Lots of Texans have ties to New Orleans, and many people live in Louisiana and actually work mostly in Texas.

[Goose]

If these are the results in Santa Clara County that took early measures, in a state as much ahead of the curve on this due to early action as any in the country, it seems states like Florida, Texas, and flyover country that didn't act soon or haven't acted enough, will be absolutely eviscerated, similarly to New York.

Unfortunately, you could very well be right. One can hope that the community spread in these states is actually also behind where we were when we took action. This disease seems to be very population density sensitive. Large cities seem to be the biggest problem. Hopefully the lower density will help the fly-over states a good deal. Social distancing happens more by geometry. That said, Texas could be in big trouble in the large cities. Lots of Texans have ties to New Orleans, and many people live in Louisiana and actually work mostly in Texas.

[oldalum]

The SCC numbers are confounded by the increase in testing, which was scant (to say the least) until recently and is still ramping up. So I think it is basically impossible to interpret them as evidence either way (for or against the effectiveness of social distancing). As has been pointed out elsewhere, hospitalizations and deaths are probably more reliable though more lagging indicators. In that vein, that Kaiser Norcal sees a reduction in new hospitalizations for coronavirus is encouraging, because Kaiser serves a defined population that is large enough to be at least reasonably representative of the overall Norcal population:

Stephen Parodi, a infectious disease doctor and associate executive director with The Permanente Medical Group in Northern California, said that Kaiser Permanente is "seeing a leveling off of Covid-19 cases in our hospitals" across Northern California, where it serves 4.5 million members. Kaiser has also seen calls related to colds and coughs drop by more than half since social distancing took effect, a key indicator that precedes hospitalization, he said.

"While we still predict an upcoming surge . . ."  article

[oldalum]

The SCC numbers are confounded by the increase in testing, which was scant (to say the least) until recently and is still ramping up. So I think it is basically impossible to interpret them as evidence either way (for or against the effectiveness of social distancing). As has been pointed out elsewhere, hospitalizations and deaths are probably more reliable though more lagging indicators. In that vein, that Kaiser Norcal sees a reduction in new hospitalizations for coronavirus is encouraging, because Kaiser serves a defined population that is large enough to be at least reasonably representative of the overall Norcal population:

Stephen Parodi, a infectious disease doctor and associate executive director with The Permanente Medical Group in Northern California, said that Kaiser Permanente is "seeing a leveling off of Covid-19 cases in our hospitals" across Northern California, where it serves 4.5 million members. Kaiser has also seen calls related to colds and coughs drop by more than half since social distancing took effect, a key indicator that precedes hospitalization, he said.

"While we still predict an upcoming surge . . ."  article