[BostonCard]

https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/Ni...46867109_4

These lists are always fun.  I'm sure a lot of people here will be surprised to know that our crappy football coach ranked 20th on the list (second only to Mario Cristobal in the Pac-12).  Familiar names are at 25 (Mike Leach), 24 (Kyle Wittingham, who is underrated IMO), 18 (Harbaugh), 12 (Cristobal), 10 (Brian Kelley who I really wanted to consider overrated, but sadly probably isn't).  The top 3 (Orgeron, Sweeny, and Saban) are no surprise.

Not on the list: Justin Wilcox, who some people feel has already surpassed Shaw, Chip Kelly, and Clay Helton (not a surprise).

BC

[BostonCard]

https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/Ni...46867109_4

These lists are always fun.  I'm sure a lot of people here will be surprised to know that our crappy football coach ranked 20th on the list (second only to Mario Cristobal in the Pac-12).  Familiar names are at 25 (Mike Leach), 24 (Kyle Wittingham, who is underrated IMO), 18 (Harbaugh), 12 (Cristobal), 10 (Brian Kelley who I really wanted to consider overrated, but sadly probably isn't).  The top 3 (Orgeron, Sweeny, and Saban) are no surprise.

Not on the list: Justin Wilcox, who some people feel has already surpassed Shaw, Chip Kelly, and Clay Helton (not a surprise).

BC

[SamuelMcF]

https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/Ni...46867109_4

These lists are always fun.  I'm sure a lot of people here will be surprised to know that our crappy football coach ranked 20th on the list (second only to Mario Cristobal in the Pac-12).  Familiar names are at 25 (Mike Leach), 24 (Kyle Wittingham, who is underrated IMO), 18 (Harbaugh), 12 (Cristobal), 10 (Brian Kelley who I really wanted to consider overrated, but sadly probably isn't).  The top 3 (Orgeron, Sweeny, and Saban) are no surprise.

Not on the list: Justin Wilcox, who some people feel has already surpassed Shaw, Chip Kelly, and Clay Helton (not a surprise).

BC

Kelly *was* overrated until he went 4-8 and the AD forced him to shake up his entire staff.

Meanwhile, we went 4-8 and only Pete Hansen left...of his own accord.

[SamuelMcF]

https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/Ni...46867109_4

These lists are always fun.  I'm sure a lot of people here will be surprised to know that our crappy football coach ranked 20th on the list (second only to Mario Cristobal in the Pac-12).  Familiar names are at 25 (Mike Leach), 24 (Kyle Wittingham, who is underrated IMO), 18 (Harbaugh), 12 (Cristobal), 10 (Brian Kelley who I really wanted to consider overrated, but sadly probably isn't).  The top 3 (Orgeron, Sweeny, and Saban) are no surprise.

Not on the list: Justin Wilcox, who some people feel has already surpassed Shaw, Chip Kelly, and Clay Helton (not a surprise).

BC

Kelly *was* overrated until he went 4-8 and the AD forced him to shake up his entire staff.

Meanwhile, we went 4-8 and only Pete Hansen left...of his own accord.

[CTcard]

These lists are always fun.  I'm sure a lot of people here will be surprised to know that our crappy football coach ranked 20th on the list (second only to Mario Cristobal in the Pac-12).  Familiar names are at 25 (Mike Leach), 24 (Kyle Wittingham, who is underrated IMO), 18 (Harbaugh), 12 (Cristobal), 10 (Brian Kelley who I really wanted to consider overrated, but sadly probably isn't).  The top 3 (Orgeron, Sweeny, and Saban) are no surprise.



Not on the list: Justin Wilcox, who some people feel has already surpassed Shaw, Chip Kelly, and Clay Helton (not a surprise).



BC

The makers of that list seem particularly lazy. They only write comments on about 10 of the 25.

Extreme recency bias.
Amusingly they note that in the description of Orgeron who they said they didn't have in the top 40 last year, that was justified, but now he is top 3. I guess he got a lot better.

Cristobal at #12 is also a case in point.
As a head coach he doesn't have much of a track record to evaluate. From 2007-2012 he had six seasons at Florida International, losing 2 for every win and getting fired. Two seasons at Oregon, the first 9-4 but a disappointing 5-4 in conference (OOC wins over SJSU, Portland State, Bowling Green), the second a verhy good 12-2 championship year.

Agree that Whittingham is likely underrated given the difficulties succeeding at Utah. I also think Harbaugh's cumulative record is a lot stronger than 18. Chip Kelly's cumulative record should also be enough to get him listed - and his career is a good illustration that there is a lot of randomness in the relationship between the strength of a coach and a team's record in any one particular year, as is Orgeron and really most every coach.

[CTcard]

These lists are always fun.  I'm sure a lot of people here will be surprised to know that our crappy football coach ranked 20th on the list (second only to Mario Cristobal in the Pac-12).  Familiar names are at 25 (Mike Leach), 24 (Kyle Wittingham, who is underrated IMO), 18 (Harbaugh), 12 (Cristobal), 10 (Brian Kelley who I really wanted to consider overrated, but sadly probably isn't).  The top 3 (Orgeron, Sweeny, and Saban) are no surprise.



Not on the list: Justin Wilcox, who some people feel has already surpassed Shaw, Chip Kelly, and Clay Helton (not a surprise).



BC

The makers of that list seem particularly lazy. They only write comments on about 10 of the 25.

Extreme recency bias.
Amusingly they note that in the description of Orgeron who they said they didn't have in the top 40 last year, that was justified, but now he is top 3. I guess he got a lot better.

Cristobal at #12 is also a case in point.
As a head coach he doesn't have much of a track record to evaluate. From 2007-2012 he had six seasons at Florida International, losing 2 for every win and getting fired. Two seasons at Oregon, the first 9-4 but a disappointing 5-4 in conference (OOC wins over SJSU, Portland State, Bowling Green), the second a verhy good 12-2 championship year.

Agree that Whittingham is likely underrated given the difficulties succeeding at Utah. I also think Harbaugh's cumulative record is a lot stronger than 18. Chip Kelly's cumulative record should also be enough to get him listed - and his career is a good illustration that there is a lot of randomness in the relationship between the strength of a coach and a team's record in any one particular year, as is Orgeron and really most every coach.

[winflop]

If there were recency bias then Shaw wouldn't belong on this list at all.

[winflop]

If there were recency bias then Shaw wouldn't belong on this list at all.

[OutsiderFan]

Since all anyone cares about here is David Shaw...

He’s now been a Head Coach for 10 seasons. This gave him the opportunity to sustain a winning program. It also allowed him to realize how easily you can fall if not constantly reinventing or pushing the envelope to improve. Record speak for themselves, but it’s also clear actions do as well. 

It is evident Shaw started evolving his on field approach a couple years ago and the OL recruiting disaster is working itself out, with 2019 likely being its nadir. It’s too early to tell if Shaw will ever rise up to conference winning level again. I have my doubts, but wouldn’t rule it out just yet.

One thing I do know is that if I was betting between Justin Wilcox at Cal or David Shaw at Stanford to next win the PAC-12 North, I would choose Wilcox. Cal returns a ton of starters this season and one CBS reporter is predicting them to go 11-1 this season. Of course, this guarantees Cal’s season won’t be played because, well, that would be the Cal thing to happen in this scenario.

[OutsiderFan]

Since all anyone cares about here is David Shaw...

He’s now been a Head Coach for 10 seasons. This gave him the opportunity to sustain a winning program. It also allowed him to realize how easily you can fall if not constantly reinventing or pushing the envelope to improve. Record speak for themselves, but it’s also clear actions do as well. 

It is evident Shaw started evolving his on field approach a couple years ago and the OL recruiting disaster is working itself out, with 2019 likely being its nadir. It’s too early to tell if Shaw will ever rise up to conference winning level again. I have my doubts, but wouldn’t rule it out just yet.

One thing I do know is that if I was betting between Justin Wilcox at Cal or David Shaw at Stanford to next win the PAC-12 North, I would choose Wilcox. Cal returns a ton of starters this season and one CBS reporter is predicting them to go 11-1 this season. Of course, this guarantees Cal’s season won’t be played because, well, that would be the Cal thing to happen in this scenario.

[JohnR34231]

If there were recency bias then Shaw wouldn't belong on this list at all.

Shaw is to some extent a victim of his own success.
Once upon a time a, say, 9-4 record would be considered excellent at Stanford and a coach who achieved it would be highly regarded.
Thanks in part to Shaw's record from 2011-2015 it no longer is.

[JohnR34231]

If there were recency bias then Shaw wouldn't belong on this list at all.

Shaw is to some extent a victim of his own success.
Once upon a time a, say, 9-4 record would be considered excellent at Stanford and a coach who achieved it would be highly regarded.
Thanks in part to Shaw's record from 2011-2015 it no longer is.

[Phogge]

He will leave a legacy as being one of the two most successful coaches in Stanford history (Pop Warner). The legacy would perhaps be the greatest if he hadn’t been conservative in the last drives against MSU in the Rose Bowl and against OSU in the Fiesta.

I would be interested to see how he would do in the NFL. I’m sure that he could easily adjust and if able to hire valuable assistants he could be an effective Chairman of the Board coach.

I would also hope that within the next couple of years he steps down and an aggressive young coach be hired at Stanford.

[Phogge]

He will leave a legacy as being one of the two most successful coaches in Stanford history (Pop Warner). The legacy would perhaps be the greatest if he hadn’t been conservative in the last drives against MSU in the Rose Bowl and against OSU in the Fiesta.

I would be interested to see how he would do in the NFL. I’m sure that he could easily adjust and if able to hire valuable assistants he could be an effective Chairman of the Board coach.

I would also hope that within the next couple of years he steps down and an aggressive young coach be hired at Stanford.

[JohnR34231]

He will leave a legacy as being one of the two most successful coaches in Stanford history (Pop Warner). The legacy would perhaps be the greatest if he hadn’t been conservative in the last drives against MSU in the Rose Bowl and against OSU in the Fiesta.

I would be interested to see how he would do in the NFL. I’m sure that he could easily adjust and if able to hire valuable assistants he could be an effective Chairman of the Board coach.

I would also hope that within the next couple of years he steps down and an aggressive young coach be hired at Stanford.

Agree on MSU. However I can't help but wondering what people would be saying if Shaw didn't try the field goal when he did against OSU and we had an interception, a lost fumble, or a sack that put us out of field goal range. Would people be saying "That's OK, he still did the right thing."? Doubtful in my mind.

[JohnR34231]

He will leave a legacy as being one of the two most successful coaches in Stanford history (Pop Warner). The legacy would perhaps be the greatest if he hadn’t been conservative in the last drives against MSU in the Rose Bowl and against OSU in the Fiesta.

I would be interested to see how he would do in the NFL. I’m sure that he could easily adjust and if able to hire valuable assistants he could be an effective Chairman of the Board coach.

I would also hope that within the next couple of years he steps down and an aggressive young coach be hired at Stanford.

Agree on MSU. However I can't help but wondering what people would be saying if Shaw didn't try the field goal when he did against OSU and we had an interception, a lost fumble, or a sack that put us out of field goal range. Would people be saying "That's OK, he still did the right thing."? Doubtful in my mind.

[Phogge]

They couldn't cover Taylor coming out of the backfield. At least try a couple of safe passes to him in the flat and see if he can get downfield. Taking the ball out of Luck's hands was a mortal sin.

[Phogge]

They couldn't cover Taylor coming out of the backfield. At least try a couple of safe passes to him in the flat and see if he can get downfield. Taking the ball out of Luck's hands was a mortal sin.

[SamuelMcF]

If there were recency bias then Shaw wouldn't belong on this list at all.

2018: Shaw #11
2019: Shaw #15
2020: Shaw #20

Give it another year or 2. He's getting there.

[SamuelMcF]

If there were recency bias then Shaw wouldn't belong on this list at all.

2018: Shaw #11
2019: Shaw #15
2020: Shaw #20

Give it another year or 2. He's getting there.

[winflop]

If there were recency bias then Shaw wouldn't belong on this list at all.

Shaw is to some extent a victim of his own success.
Once upon a time a, say, 9-4 record would be considered excellent at Stanford and a coach who achieved it would be highly regarded.
Thanks in part to Shaw's record from 2011-2015 it no longer is.

It's not about being a victim of your own success. This is a national list. It's about having an overall record of 22-17 and a conference record of 16-11 over the last three seasons and putting up an absolute stinker last season. Those are not the kinds of records that should land you on any top list when compared to other coaches around the country

[winflop]

If there were recency bias then Shaw wouldn't belong on this list at all.

Shaw is to some extent a victim of his own success.
Once upon a time a, say, 9-4 record would be considered excellent at Stanford and a coach who achieved it would be highly regarded.
Thanks in part to Shaw's record from 2011-2015 it no longer is.

It's not about being a victim of your own success. This is a national list. It's about having an overall record of 22-17 and a conference record of 16-11 over the last three seasons and putting up an absolute stinker last season. Those are not the kinds of records that should land you on any top list when compared to other coaches around the country

[BostonCard]

If there were recency bias then Shaw wouldn't belong on this list at all.

Shaw is to some extent a victim of his own success.
Once upon a time a, say, 9-4 record would be considered excellent at Stanford and a coach who achieved it would be highly regarded.
Thanks in part to Shaw's record from 2011-2015 it no longer is.

It's not about being a victim of your own success. This is a national list. It's about having an overall record of 22-17 and a conference record of 16-11 over the last three seasons and putting up an absolute stinker last season. Those are not the kinds of records that should land you on any top list when compared to other coaches around the country

How many coaches in my lifetime have had a three year record better than 22-17?

Harbaugh was 25-13 his last three years.
Willingham was 22-13 his last three years.
Willingham was 19-15 his first three years, but that percentage is a shade lower than 22-17.
Christiansen had a three year stretch he was 18-12, though only the last of those three years was after I was born.

Ralston was before my time.  So officially, aside from any of Shaw’s three year stretches before his last three years, there have only been two three year stretches where a single coach has had a better three year record than the worst three years under Shaw in my lifetime.

BC

[BostonCard]

If there were recency bias then Shaw wouldn't belong on this list at all.

Shaw is to some extent a victim of his own success.
Once upon a time a, say, 9-4 record would be considered excellent at Stanford and a coach who achieved it would be highly regarded.
Thanks in part to Shaw's record from 2011-2015 it no longer is.

It's not about being a victim of your own success. This is a national list. It's about having an overall record of 22-17 and a conference record of 16-11 over the last three seasons and putting up an absolute stinker last season. Those are not the kinds of records that should land you on any top list when compared to other coaches around the country

How many coaches in my lifetime have had a three year record better than 22-17?

Harbaugh was 25-13 his last three years.
Willingham was 22-13 his last three years.
Willingham was 19-15 his first three years, but that percentage is a shade lower than 22-17.
Christiansen had a three year stretch he was 18-12, though only the last of those three years was after I was born.

Ralston was before my time.  So officially, aside from any of Shaw’s three year stretches before his last three years, there have only been two three year stretches where a single coach has had a better three year record than the worst three years under Shaw in my lifetime.

BC

[Phogge]

When the bread is stale you can slightly sprinkle with water and heat in the microwave or you toss it out.

[Phogge]

When the bread is stale you can slightly sprinkle with water and heat in the microwave or you toss it out.

[JohnR34231]

If there were recency bias then Shaw wouldn't belong on this list at all.

Shaw is to some extent a victim of his own success.
Once upon a time a, say, 9-4 record would be considered excellent at Stanford and a coach who achieved it would be highly regarded.
Thanks in part to Shaw's record from 2011-2015 it no longer is.

It's not about being a victim of your own success. This is a national list. It's about having an overall record of 22-17 and a conference record of 16-11 over the last three seasons and putting up an absolute stinker last season. Those are not the kinds of records that should land you on any top list when compared to other coaches around the country

How many coaches in my lifetime have had a three year record better than 22-17?

Harbaugh was 25-13 his last three years.
Willingham was 22-13 his last three years.
Willingham was 19-15 his first three years, but that percentage is a shade lower than 22-17.
Christiansen had a three year stretch he was 18-12, though only the last of those three years was after I was born.

Ralston was before my time.  So officially, aside from any of Shaw’s three year stretches before his last three years, there have only been two three year stretches where a single coach has had a better three year record than the worst three years under Shaw in my lifetime.

BC

If you want to pick a coach's worst year and throw it in a three year stretch there are a lot of coaches you can make look bad. Brian Kelly was 22-16 between 2014-2016. He is ranked #10.

[JohnR34231]

If there were recency bias then Shaw wouldn't belong on this list at all.

Shaw is to some extent a victim of his own success.
Once upon a time a, say, 9-4 record would be considered excellent at Stanford and a coach who achieved it would be highly regarded.
Thanks in part to Shaw's record from 2011-2015 it no longer is.

It's not about being a victim of your own success. This is a national list. It's about having an overall record of 22-17 and a conference record of 16-11 over the last three seasons and putting up an absolute stinker last season. Those are not the kinds of records that should land you on any top list when compared to other coaches around the country

How many coaches in my lifetime have had a three year record better than 22-17?

Harbaugh was 25-13 his last three years.
Willingham was 22-13 his last three years.
Willingham was 19-15 his first three years, but that percentage is a shade lower than 22-17.
Christiansen had a three year stretch he was 18-12, though only the last of those three years was after I was born.

Ralston was before my time.  So officially, aside from any of Shaw’s three year stretches before his last three years, there have only been two three year stretches where a single coach has had a better three year record than the worst three years under Shaw in my lifetime.

BC

If you want to pick a coach's worst year and throw it in a three year stretch there are a lot of coaches you can make look bad. Brian Kelly was 22-16 between 2014-2016. He is ranked #10.

[Mick]

If you want to pick a coach's worst year and throw it in a three year stretch there are a lot of coaches you can make look bad. Brian Kelly was 22-16 between 2014-2016. He is ranked #10.

Bill Walsh went 21-27 his first three years with the Niners (including a Super Bowl 13-3 record).  I imagine he would make a Top Ten NFL coaches list.

For grins, I looked up two all-time NFL coaches lists, Bleacher Report and Athlon.  Here's their Top Tens:

BR:  Belichick, Landry, Lombardi, Shula, Brown, Noll, Walsh, Gibbs, Parcells, Halas
Athlon: Belichick, Lombardi, Shula, Walsh, Brown, Gibbs, Halas Landry, Noll, Parcells.

John Madden has the second highest NFL coaching winning percentage, apparently not good enough for the top 10 lists.  Coached 10 years, finished 1st or 2nd in the division EVERY YEAR, 103-32-7 and a Super Bowl.  Two championship games and eight conference championship games in 10 years.

Athlon didn't have Seifert on the list, BR had Seifert at #19.  Seifert is 10th in career winning percentage for coaches that have coached for 10 years or more, and that includes three terrible years as Carolina's HC.  His 49er winning percentage would give him the highest average, by far, of any NFL coach ever. And Seifert was Walsh's DC for seven seasons, hired as DC after Chuck Studley's 1982 defense finished 23rd in the league.  Here's Seifert's NFL defensive ranking for points allowed those seasons: 4, 1, 2, 3, 3, 8, 3.

[Mick]

If you want to pick a coach's worst year and throw it in a three year stretch there are a lot of coaches you can make look bad. Brian Kelly was 22-16 between 2014-2016. He is ranked #10.

Bill Walsh went 21-27 his first three years with the Niners (including a Super Bowl 13-3 record).  I imagine he would make a Top Ten NFL coaches list.

For grins, I looked up two all-time NFL coaches lists, Bleacher Report and Athlon.  Here's their Top Tens:

BR:  Belichick, Landry, Lombardi, Shula, Brown, Noll, Walsh, Gibbs, Parcells, Halas
Athlon: Belichick, Lombardi, Shula, Walsh, Brown, Gibbs, Halas Landry, Noll, Parcells.

John Madden has the second highest NFL coaching winning percentage, apparently not good enough for the top 10 lists.  Coached 10 years, finished 1st or 2nd in the division EVERY YEAR, 103-32-7 and a Super Bowl.  Two championship games and eight conference championship games in 10 years.

Athlon didn't have Seifert on the list, BR had Seifert at #19.  Seifert is 10th in career winning percentage for coaches that have coached for 10 years or more, and that includes three terrible years as Carolina's HC.  His 49er winning percentage would give him the highest average, by far, of any NFL coach ever. And Seifert was Walsh's DC for seven seasons, hired as DC after Chuck Studley's 1982 defense finished 23rd in the league.  Here's Seifert's NFL defensive ranking for points allowed those seasons: 4, 1, 2, 3, 3, 8, 3.

[Phogge]

Brown should be second or third. He won in the AAFC and he won in the NFL. He was innovative and dominant. Like most lists there are too many modern coaches on it. The Browns of the Forties and Fifties are like the Yanks of Ruth and Gehrig and the Yanks of ‘49-‘53.

[Phogge]

Brown should be second or third. He won in the AAFC and he won in the NFL. He was innovative and dominant. Like most lists there are too many modern coaches on it. The Browns of the Forties and Fifties are like the Yanks of Ruth and Gehrig and the Yanks of ‘49-‘53.

[GK3]

Chances of Stanford asking David Shaw to leave and move on are slim and none I would say.  Based on what David says he has no interest in going to the pro game.  He has been there, and I don't think he like the environment.  He is at the school where his father coached, where he played and obviously has strong feelings the institution.  I think he is one coach who not always chasing the biggest pay check or biggest stage.

[GK3]

Chances of Stanford asking David Shaw to leave and move on are slim and none I would say.  Based on what David says he has no interest in going to the pro game.  He has been there, and I don't think he like the environment.  He is at the school where his father coached, where he played and obviously has strong feelings the institution.  I think he is one coach who not always chasing the biggest pay check or biggest stage.

[terry]

Brown should be second or third. He won in the AAFC and he won in the NFL. He was innovative and dominant. Like most lists there are too many modern coaches on it. The Browns of the Forties and Fifties are like the Yanks of Ruth and Gehrig and the Yanks of ‘49-‘53.

Hey Phogge, I'm wondering whether you ever met Paul Brown? I met him briefly and found him cold and unfriendly. I've also heard some negative stories about him. However, my grandfather knew him well and considered him a friend. Just curious about your experience.

[terry]

Brown should be second or third. He won in the AAFC and he won in the NFL. He was innovative and dominant. Like most lists there are too many modern coaches on it. The Browns of the Forties and Fifties are like the Yanks of Ruth and Gehrig and the Yanks of ‘49-‘53.

Hey Phogge, I'm wondering whether you ever met Paul Brown? I met him briefly and found him cold and unfriendly. I've also heard some negative stories about him. However, my grandfather knew him well and considered him a friend. Just curious about your experience.

[Phogge]

I was around him one time when ny dad was with Movietone. Pretty young and I was in awe of Otto Graham who was in the vicinity. Have heard he was cold. I wish Steve Sabol was still around for many reasons. He could probably give you a couple of good hours about Brown, Graham and some other Browns legends who he interviewed.

[Phogge]

I was around him one time when ny dad was with Movietone. Pretty young and I was in awe of Otto Graham who was in the vicinity. Have heard he was cold. I wish Steve Sabol was still around for many reasons. He could probably give you a couple of good hours about Brown, Graham and some other Browns legends who he interviewed.

[82lsju]

I was around him one time when ny dad was with Movietone. Pretty young and I was in awe of Otto Graham who was in the vicinity. Have heard he was cold. I wish Steve Sabol was still around for many reasons. He could probably give you a couple of good hours about Brown, Graham and some other Browns legends who he interviewed.

well this story about Bobby Garrett makes Paul Brown sound like an unpleasant person

https://stanfordmag.org/contents/the-first-number-one

[82lsju]

I was around him one time when ny dad was with Movietone. Pretty young and I was in awe of Otto Graham who was in the vicinity. Have heard he was cold. I wish Steve Sabol was still around for many reasons. He could probably give you a couple of good hours about Brown, Graham and some other Browns legends who he interviewed.

well this story about Bobby Garrett makes Paul Brown sound like an unpleasant person

https://stanfordmag.org/contents/the-first-number-one