06-07-2020, 10:28 PM
(06-07-2020, 07:55 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Given how crucial super spreaders are to the spread and speed of the outbreak, ...
A study from China may clarify the nature of the spreading:
Quote:Three hundred and eighteen outbreaks with three or more cases were identified, involving 1245 confirmed cases in 120 prefectural cities. We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneous. Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases.
Most of the 254 home outbreaks included three to five cases (145 with three cases, 66 with four cases, and 25 with five cases). The average number of cases was 3·7 for the home outbreaks, 3·8 for transport, 4·9 for food venues, 3·6 for entertainment venues, 8·7 for shopping venues, and 4·4 for miscellaneous venues. The proportion of large outbreaks was high for shops and food venues, possibly because more susceptible individuals were present
The emergence of homes as the most common COVID-19 outbreak venue in China is not surprising. During the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China, homes became temporary quarantine places. Our estimated home dominance of 79·9% is close to the official estimate of 83% of the so-called household clusters among the nearly 1000 clusters (not outbreaks) defined by the China National Health Commission. . . . Most Chinese families have one child, and some families may also include grandparents. The relatively low number of cases in these home outbreaks might be considered an advantage of compulsory home quarantine because transmission was limited to the small number of family members.
The second salient feature of the 318 identified outbreaks is the relatively small number of outbreaks that involved 10 or more cases. The largest outbreak occurred in a Tianjin shopping mall and involved 21 cases, although Wu et al.5 reported that 25 cases were involved.
The occurrence of many small outbreaks (in number of cases) in the COVID-19 pandemic suggests a different transmission pattern from that of the 2003 SARS-CoV epidemic. Some virus, epidemiological, and environmental factors could have contributed to this observed difference between the 2003 SARS-CoV epidemic and the current COVID-19 pandemic.
This study has limitations. We only studied outbreaks in China, where very strict intervention measures were implemented. . . .
The report raises issues about the state of ventilation within Chinese buildings & homes (characterized as poor).
I believe super spreading (and, indeed, R0) is more about society than the disease. Super spreading is the reason that the (10+, 25+, 200+, 1000+, 5000+, 50,000+) gatherings are going to be a problem as long as many people do not have the disease, but some do. Such events (from birthday parties to football practices to crowds for athletic events) are bound to be super spreading events.
I'd love to be wrong, but all the opening up, especially before large areas (20M or so in SoCal) have even stabilized, is likely going to be costly.
(The yearly death count for LA County 2015-2017 was just under 63,000. The most recent 2 week COVID death toll in L.A. County was 532. Annualized, that is 13,870 COVID deaths, or 22% of the normal total.)

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