(06-17-2020, 02:52 PM)Farm93 Wrote: [quote="Genuine Realist" pid='283331' dateline='1592423419']
[quote="burger" pid='283294' dateline='1592367740']
120,000 dead, GR, and you're still defending him.
Not much of a realist, are you.
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The first few paragraphs of your post align with my own view of Trump the Man. But then it deviates into demonism and historical revisionism, e.g., the Democrats through January and mid-February did NOT urge the public to take Covid-19 seriously. They took it even less seriously than Trump. decrying travel bans, etc. No one in the Western World took it seriously until - in my opinion - clinical reports from Italy and the first cluster in the US began to rain in.That was in the last two weeks of February. This all-things-lead-to-Trump attitude causes a lot of confusion.
I will do this anecdotally. I'm on very good terms with my older daughter, from whom I get medical advice. She is as anti-Trump as burger, but considerably more graceful. She is (or was) convinced that Trump deliberately lied about the seriousness of the disease in January. Why? sez I. Well, to buoy up the stock market and help his reelection.
This maketh no sense, sez I. The election isn't until November. Lying about a pandemic buys you a few weeks at most. The stock market, the public, and so on, will be wise to the reality long before the election. It's like lying to the fire department about a fire in your living room, claiming its only a grease fire in your kitchen. When the house burst into flames, the truth is apparent enough. What is there to gain? Do you think Trump is so stupid that he doesn't see beyond March 1st? Trump the Demon may be stupid. but Trump the Man is not. There has been only one stupid President in US history, and it isn't Trump. [Trivia alert - answer at the end of the post]
Getting to my own field, I can't make a fraud case on Trump to a jury. You can't show fraudulent intent on a time frame that short. There's nothing to gain. Add to that the almost universal pattern of response in the West to Covid-19, the fact that the obvious political tactic of an embattled President would be to MAGNIFY, not minimize, the extent of the threat, and the entire analytic framework collapses. (BTW, when actual history is written, it is possible that the apparent success of the island and peninsular nations in Asia was due to their SARS protocols, and the efficacy against Covid-19 a type of serendipity.
Get beyond the all-things-lead-to-Trump thinking, giving up the notion that some enlightened policy choice might have saved all this, interesting and somewhat ominous questions emerge. Why did this virus catch almost the entire health apparatus of the world flat-footed? And what does that imply for the future? I do a lot more reading on this line than posting. I am particularly struck by how much uncertainty there still is about basic contagion mechanisms. Now we're all wearing masks, which were pooh-poohed a few weeks ago. The CDC account of its failures (or difficulty) in coping with the virus in January is also interesting. Finally,there is the really frightening percentage of cases that are asymptomatic or so mild that the subject doesn't know he's infected. I imagine it's an epidemiologist's nightmare.
It's not my field, but put it all together and my citizen's opinion is that attempts to cope with the virus by test-and-trace are doomed to fail, particularly in the early stages. (Germany did identify a Patient Zero, and wound up with a community infection anyway.) Pending a vaccine or effective treatments, the social distancing measures being adopted everywhere are the only effective response - and always were. In terms of containment, the only strategy that seems to work is complete quarantine, which no Western nation was willing to do when it really mattered. Whatever the cause - misinformation, over-confidence - no one had the political will to do that in January, when it might have made a difference.
The ultimate bottom line is that this is going to be with us for some time. It's going to alter social patterns for years. The adjustments required are so comprehensive that we might as well get on with them. Waiting for the curve to flatten, particularly when there is a hard core of non-compliance as to which criminal sanctions are overkill, is a fool's errand. We should be reopening at once, and promulgating regulations for social distancing for institutions that are sensitive to them (hotels, large department stores, movie theaters, etc.)
None of this has anything to do with Trump the Demon. Trump the Man didn't lie or dismiss the Covid threat in January, for the reasons stated above. He parroted the conventional wisdom, which may be the reason he is so annoyed at the WHO.
But Trump the Man has also managed to parley an issue that should have resulted in a sense of national unity into still one more divisive, personal battle. He has also adopted at this time the Red (reopening) position WITHOUT insisting that this be accompanied by sensible distancing. There's plenty to dislike about him without the demonization.
[Oh - the one stupid President? Warren Harding.]