(10-13-2020, 10:56 AM)magnus Wrote: How many in attendance?
If 1000, that's only 2%. Likely lower than the local infection rate.
(10-13-2020, 10:56 AM)magnus Wrote: How many in attendance?
If 1000, that's only 2%. Likely lower than the local infection rate.
(10-13-2020, 11:11 AM)BostonCard Wrote:(10-13-2020, 10:56 AM)magnus Wrote: How many in attendance?
If 1000, that's only 2%. Likely lower than the local infection rate.
...That being said, I would venture that rally attendees might be expected to have a higher infection rate than the population of Minnesota as a whole, notwithstanding their attendance of the rally, based on their overall preference for less social distancing.
BC
(10-13-2020, 11:11 AM)BostonCard Wrote:(10-13-2020, 10:56 AM)magnus Wrote: How many in attendance?
If 1000, that's only 2%. Likely lower than the local infection rate.
...That being said, I would venture that rally attendees might be expected to have a higher infection rate than the population of Minnesota as a whole, notwithstanding their attendance of the rally, based on their overall preference for less social distancing.
BC
(10-13-2020, 11:11 AM)BostonCard Wrote:I would agree the typical lifestyle and pandemic choices of your average MAGA rally participant makes it very hard to conclude they got COVID at the MAGA rally. However, those seeking to avoid COVID19 should probably avoid Trump rallies or ceremonies.(10-13-2020, 10:56 AM)magnus Wrote: How many in attendance?
If 1000, that's only 2%. Likely lower than the local infection rate.
2% of Minnesotans would be 112,800 people; Minnesota has only had 113,000 cases total since the beginning of the pandemic. But obviously people who tested positive back in May, June, and July would not be expected to test positive now. The number of daily cases in Minnesota is 1,200 (using a 7 day moving average), so assuming a 14-day infectious period, you'd only expect to have 16,800 cases (or about 0.32% of the population infected) if you tested a random sample of Minnesotans, much lower than the estimated 2% of people at the rally who have tested positive.
That being said, I would venture that rally attendees might be expected to have a higher infection rate than the population of Minnesota as a whole, notwithstanding their attendance of the rally, based on their overall preference for less social distancing.
BC
(10-13-2020, 11:11 AM)BostonCard Wrote:I would agree the typical lifestyle and pandemic choices of your average MAGA rally participant makes it very hard to conclude they got COVID at the MAGA rally. However, those seeking to avoid COVID19 should probably avoid Trump rallies or ceremonies.(10-13-2020, 10:56 AM)magnus Wrote: How many in attendance?
If 1000, that's only 2%. Likely lower than the local infection rate.
2% of Minnesotans would be 112,800 people; Minnesota has only had 113,000 cases total since the beginning of the pandemic. But obviously people who tested positive back in May, June, and July would not be expected to test positive now. The number of daily cases in Minnesota is 1,200 (using a 7 day moving average), so assuming a 14-day infectious period, you'd only expect to have 16,800 cases (or about 0.32% of the population infected) if you tested a random sample of Minnesotans, much lower than the estimated 2% of people at the rally who have tested positive.
That being said, I would venture that rally attendees might be expected to have a higher infection rate than the population of Minnesota as a whole, notwithstanding their attendance of the rally, based on their overall preference for less social distancing.
BC
