Long offseason. He will have to answer for some questionable calls/decisions.
Outside Topic OT: Lafluer
01-24-2021, 04:55 PM
So will Rodgers. I thought he could have run in for the TD on his last pass attempt to a double-covered Adams.
Not going for the TD was straight out of the coach Shaw playbook.
01-24-2021, 08:29 PM
The really dumb decision was gong for 2 when Packers made it 28-23. Should have just made it 28-24. You never want the other team to be able to go up 8 by kicking a FG in the 4th quarter.
Had Packers trailed by 7, they absolutely would have gone for it on 4th and Goal with 2:10 left. Even if you fail, Bucs hav the ball inside their own 10, and you would need to get another stop if you failed on 4th or kicked a FG. The reason Lafleur kicked the FG was because he wasn't confident he could get the 2pt conversion, having failed previously when he should have kicked XP.
The Packers were the favorite, playing at home. They should have played for an overtime score.
Had Packers trailed by 7, they absolutely would have gone for it on 4th and Goal with 2:10 left. Even if you fail, Bucs hav the ball inside their own 10, and you would need to get another stop if you failed on 4th or kicked a FG. The reason Lafleur kicked the FG was because he wasn't confident he could get the 2pt conversion, having failed previously when he should have kicked XP.
The Packers were the favorite, playing at home. They should have played for an overtime score.
The really dumb decision was gong for 2 when Packers made it 28-23. Should have just made it 28-24. You never want the other team to be able to go up 8 by kicking a FG in the 4th quarter.
Had Packers trailed by 7, they absolutely would have gone for it on 4th and Goal with 2:10 left. Even if you fail, Bucs hav the ball inside their own 10, and you would need to get another stop if you failed on 4th or kicked a FG. The reason Lafleur kicked the FG was because he wasn't confident he could get the 2pt conversion, having failed previously when he should have kicked XP.
The Packers were the favorite, playing at home. They should have played for an overtime score.
Had Packers trailed by 7, they absolutely would have gone for it on 4th and Goal with 2:10 left. Even if you fail, Bucs hav the ball inside their own 10, and you would need to get another stop if you failed on 4th or kicked a FG. The reason Lafleur kicked the FG was because he wasn't confident he could get the 2pt conversion, having failed previously when he should have kicked XP.
The Packers were the favorite, playing at home. They should have played for an overtime score.
(01-24-2021, 08:29 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The really dumb decision was gong for 2 when Packers made it 28-23. Should have just made it 28-24. You never want the other team to be able to go up 8 by kicking a FG in the 4th quarter.
Just happened to read ESPN's take on this and they disagree
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/3077...ay-packers
Quote:According to ESPN's model, the failed 2-point try was the correct decision from an analytics standpoint.
(01-24-2021, 08:29 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The really dumb decision was gong for 2 when Packers made it 28-23. Should have just made it 28-24. You never want the other team to be able to go up 8 by kicking a FG in the 4th quarter.
Just happened to read ESPN's take on this and they disagree
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/3077...ay-packers
Quote:According to ESPN's model, the failed 2-point try was the correct decision from an analytics standpoint.
01-25-2021, 11:05 AM
(01-24-2021, 09:25 PM)magnus Wrote:(01-24-2021, 08:29 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The really dumb decision was gong for 2 when Packers made it 28-23. Should have just made it 28-24. You never want the other team to be able to go up 8 by kicking a FG in the 4th quarter.
Just happened to read ESPN's take on this and they disagree
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/3077...ay-packers
Quote:According to ESPN's model, the failed 2-point try was the correct decision from an analytics standpoint.
I don't care what ESPN's model says. It was a bad decision. I'll prove it...
Would LaFleur have gone for 2 if the Packers were down 7 and scored a TD with 2:10 left to play in 4th, or would he have kicked the XP. I guarantee you he would have kicked the XP. There isn't even the slightest question he would have.
I get the whole idea of wanting to get within 3 not he lat 3rd quarter TD by going for 2, but even had they made it Tampa Bay still was up 6 after their FG. Green Bay would have gone for it on 4th with 2:10 left in 4th if they were down 6. So the only reason they didn't was because they didn't get the previous 2-pt conversion.
Maybe over the course of a season, going for 2 in the 3rd makes sense, but this was with 15:30 left to play in the NFC Championship Game, at home. You don't get these opportunities very often. Going for Trying to make it 28-25, instead of settling for 28-24, suggested a mentality that you couldn't score another TD in the 4th quarter. That's not a great show of confidence when your team needs it. Lo and behold, they in fact didn't score another TD in the 4th, and lacked so much confidence they even kicked a FG down 8, with 2:10 to go.
It would have been nice if they made the last 2-pt attempt, but the downside FAR outweighed the ROI for the risk taken. Again, I don't care what ESPN says.
(01-24-2021, 09:25 PM)magnus Wrote:(01-24-2021, 08:29 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The really dumb decision was gong for 2 when Packers made it 28-23. Should have just made it 28-24. You never want the other team to be able to go up 8 by kicking a FG in the 4th quarter.
Just happened to read ESPN's take on this and they disagree
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/3077...ay-packers
Quote:According to ESPN's model, the failed 2-point try was the correct decision from an analytics standpoint.
I don't care what ESPN's model says. It was a bad decision. I'll prove it...
Would LaFleur have gone for 2 if the Packers were down 7 and scored a TD with 2:10 left to play in 4th, or would he have kicked the XP. I guarantee you he would have kicked the XP. There isn't even the slightest question he would have.
I get the whole idea of wanting to get within 3 not he lat 3rd quarter TD by going for 2, but even had they made it Tampa Bay still was up 6 after their FG. Green Bay would have gone for it on 4th with 2:10 left in 4th if they were down 6. So the only reason they didn't was because they didn't get the previous 2-pt conversion.
Maybe over the course of a season, going for 2 in the 3rd makes sense, but this was with 15:30 left to play in the NFC Championship Game, at home. You don't get these opportunities very often. Going for Trying to make it 28-25, instead of settling for 28-24, suggested a mentality that you couldn't score another TD in the 4th quarter. That's not a great show of confidence when your team needs it. Lo and behold, they in fact didn't score another TD in the 4th, and lacked so much confidence they even kicked a FG down 8, with 2:10 to go.
It would have been nice if they made the last 2-pt attempt, but the downside FAR outweighed the ROI for the risk taken. Again, I don't care what ESPN says.
01-25-2021, 06:58 PM
(01-25-2021, 11:05 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(01-24-2021, 09:25 PM)magnus Wrote:(01-24-2021, 08:29 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The really dumb decision was gong for 2 when Packers made it 28-23. Should have just made it 28-24. You never want the other team to be able to go up 8 by kicking a FG in the 4th quarter.
Just happened to read ESPN's take on this and they disagree
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/3077...ay-packers
Quote:According to ESPN's model, the failed 2-point try was the correct decision from an analytics standpoint.
I don't care what ESPN's model says. It was a bad decision. I'll prove it...
Would LaFleur have gone for 2 if the Packers were down 7 and scored a TD with 2:10 left to play in 4th, or would he have kicked the XP. I guarantee you he would have kicked the XP. There isn't even the slightest question he would have.
I get the whole idea of wanting to get within 3 not he lat 3rd quarter TD by going for 2, but even had they made it Tampa Bay still was up 6 after their FG. Green Bay would have gone for it on 4th with 2:10 left in 4th if they were down 6. So the only reason they didn't was because they didn't get the previous 2-pt conversion.
Maybe over the course of a season, going for 2 in the 3rd makes sense, but this was with 15:30 left to play in the NFC Championship Game, at home. You don't get these opportunities very often. Going for Trying to make it 28-25, instead of settling for 28-24, suggested a mentality that you couldn't score another TD in the 4th quarter. That's not a great show of confidence when your team needs it. Lo and behold, they in fact didn't score another TD in the 4th, and lacked so much confidence they even kicked a FG down 8, with 2:10 to go.
It would have been nice if they made the last 2-pt attempt, but the downside FAR outweighed the ROI for the risk taken. Again, I don't care what ESPN says.
Has Lefluer said he would have gone for it if one down 7? Otherwise, who knows. FWIW - I would not have gone for 2 either. But at least it’s debateable. Playing man on an outside receiver wih 8 secs left, Brady at QB, Arians at HC and the ball on your 39, was indefensible. Pun intended.
(01-25-2021, 11:05 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(01-24-2021, 09:25 PM)magnus Wrote:(01-24-2021, 08:29 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The really dumb decision was gong for 2 when Packers made it 28-23. Should have just made it 28-24. You never want the other team to be able to go up 8 by kicking a FG in the 4th quarter.
Just happened to read ESPN's take on this and they disagree
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/3077...ay-packers
Quote:According to ESPN's model, the failed 2-point try was the correct decision from an analytics standpoint.
I don't care what ESPN's model says. It was a bad decision. I'll prove it...
Would LaFleur have gone for 2 if the Packers were down 7 and scored a TD with 2:10 left to play in 4th, or would he have kicked the XP. I guarantee you he would have kicked the XP. There isn't even the slightest question he would have.
I get the whole idea of wanting to get within 3 not he lat 3rd quarter TD by going for 2, but even had they made it Tampa Bay still was up 6 after their FG. Green Bay would have gone for it on 4th with 2:10 left in 4th if they were down 6. So the only reason they didn't was because they didn't get the previous 2-pt conversion.
Maybe over the course of a season, going for 2 in the 3rd makes sense, but this was with 15:30 left to play in the NFC Championship Game, at home. You don't get these opportunities very often. Going for Trying to make it 28-25, instead of settling for 28-24, suggested a mentality that you couldn't score another TD in the 4th quarter. That's not a great show of confidence when your team needs it. Lo and behold, they in fact didn't score another TD in the 4th, and lacked so much confidence they even kicked a FG down 8, with 2:10 to go.
It would have been nice if they made the last 2-pt attempt, but the downside FAR outweighed the ROI for the risk taken. Again, I don't care what ESPN says.
Has Lefluer said he would have gone for it if one down 7? Otherwise, who knows. FWIW - I would not have gone for 2 either. But at least it’s debateable. Playing man on an outside receiver wih 8 secs left, Brady at QB, Arians at HC and the ball on your 39, was indefensible. Pun intended.
01-26-2021, 05:59 PM
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wai...ight-call/
I've taken Hot takedown out of my podcast rotation to make room for others, but they are a worthwhile podcast.
BC
Quote:Of course, the even louder takes were about the Green Bay Packers kicking a field goal when they were down 8 against Tampa Bay with 2:09 left to play. Though fans expect teams to be aggressive at the end of games, the math on that particular decision wasn’t so clear-cut. The Hot Takedown team is mixed on whether coach Matt LaFleur made the right call — 2-point conversions are getting trickier and trickier in the NFL, and Tom Brady was not exactly playing like a man about to take his 10th trip to the Super Bowl; it wasn’t unreasonable for the Packers to think they could get the ball back quickly and have time to go for the winning touchdown. But the crew agrees that kicking the field goal wasn’t the worst decision in the game: The real mistakes were Rodgers not running on the previous two plays in the series (and the breakdown of communication between Rodgers and LaFleur) along with the team not defending to end the first half.
I've taken Hot takedown out of my podcast rotation to make room for others, but they are a worthwhile podcast.
BC
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wai...ight-call/
I've taken Hot takedown out of my podcast rotation to make room for others, but they are a worthwhile podcast.
BC
Quote:Of course, the even louder takes were about the Green Bay Packers kicking a field goal when they were down 8 against Tampa Bay with 2:09 left to play. Though fans expect teams to be aggressive at the end of games, the math on that particular decision wasn’t so clear-cut. The Hot Takedown team is mixed on whether coach Matt LaFleur made the right call — 2-point conversions are getting trickier and trickier in the NFL, and Tom Brady was not exactly playing like a man about to take his 10th trip to the Super Bowl; it wasn’t unreasonable for the Packers to think they could get the ball back quickly and have time to go for the winning touchdown. But the crew agrees that kicking the field goal wasn’t the worst decision in the game: The real mistakes were Rodgers not running on the previous two plays in the series (and the breakdown of communication between Rodgers and LaFleur) along with the team not defending to end the first half.
I've taken Hot takedown out of my podcast rotation to make room for others, but they are a worthwhile podcast.
BC
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