(07-25-2021, 10:36 PM)akiddoc Wrote: (07-25-2021, 05:49 PM)rogpodge Wrote: Based on qualifying scores, the Japanese, Chinese, and Russians were at the top, tightly clustered, then a five point drop to the US / UK, then another drop to the next tier. There's a Russian gymnast who tore his Achilles in APRIL, and is competing.
For the women, the US wasn't as dominant. Not sure if it's just a matter of some tweaks, but since expectations are so high, it looks like a bad performance.
That was a cluster f*** for the US women. They should have been 5 points clear of the Russians. Biles alone lost 3 points out of pure sloppiness and lack of focus. Chiles was terrible as well. Good thing Lee is steady as a rock.
Biles gets away with a lot of sloppy gymnastics because she has the most skills in the history of the sport, but that was the worst meet I can remember in her career. If she corrects that stuff, the USA wins the gold. Chiles is a mess, possibly because her mother is about to go to prison. I would only put her on the events that are absolutely safe for her in the finals. All scores count in the finals. Three competitors in each event. She's safe on vault.
Certainly, Biles wasn't as sharp as she could be--that massive step out of bounds on floor, the dismount on beam (after what was otherwise a great routine)--but fundamentally, when you qualify first for the all-around and you qualify for all four event finals, the blame for team performance really ought to lie elsewhere. I get that she can and is expected to do better, but my goodness, McCallum didn't look nearly good enough and Chiles was just dreadful (fine enough on vault and floor, but a 12.866 on bars and a 11.566 on beam? Goodness).
When we need Biles to be otherworldly rather than merely being the best on the floor, it's hard to argue we're the best
team in the world. We should still win team gold if things get tightened up in team finals, but it'll be on Simone's back. That lack of depth is concerning once Biles moves on from Olympic gymnastics.
Jade Carey was great. If she's on the team rather than Chiles, then we make up that gap with Russia in qualifying and we're tied going into finals. She was 0.567 better on floor, 0.466 better on vault, a couple points better on bars (but just 0.033 better than the third score), and over a point better on beam (but her score would still have been fourth in qualifying). That's 1.067 points that would've been added to the total, exactly what we were behind Russia. But then again, you wouldn't have picked Carey over Chiles based on recent past results, either.
You have to hope, though, that Chiles--who'd been so, so consistent--turns it around after that bout of nerves.
Hoping the bright lights push Biles to return to her usual sparkling form. Her second day of Trials was pretty pedestrian (she fell off the beam!), and this is now two meets in a row with a pretty off day.
akiddoc, what three would you put up for the women in each event? If we chalk Chiles' performance up to nerves and expect her to bounce right back, then you'd go like this, presumably:
Floor: Biles, Chiles, McCallum/Lee
Vault: Biles, Chiles, McCallum
Uneven Bars: Lee, Biles, Chiles
Balance Beam: Biles, Lee, Chiles
But if we think she's likely to repeat those mistakes?
Floor: Biles, Chiles, McCallum/Lee
Vault: Biles, Chiles, McCallum
Uneven Bars: Lee, Biles, McCallum
Balance Beam: Biles, Lee, McCallum
That takes so many potential points off the table, though. Sure, just Simone tightening things up is enough to get us there, but if we're planning on counting McCallum's scores in each event, then we're lowering our ceiling, too.
(Apologies for the thread drift....)
