[Goose]

Looks like Lyman was a bloodbath for the Russians.

https://twitter.com/casualartyfan/status...S0Ifyee0UQ

How embarrassing for Putin. Ukraine takes a Russian city literally the day after Russia annexes it (yes, OF, I am being sarcastic here).  FwIW I don’t know what media you listen to, but every time I hear the word “referendum” it’s preceded by the word “sham” and every time I’ve heard “annexation” it was just after the word “illegal”.

BC

---

Not sure if this is real or fanfic, but interesting reading and consistent with other evidence.  Purportedly from a Ukrainian volunteer.

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpr...slaughter/

BC

If accurate, not as good as one would hope. Sounds like Ukraine didn't really get behind them and control the roads before they started to retreat. Sounds a bit like Falaise. Lots of Germans got out. There will be lots of Russians KIA/WIA but too many will get out and they will clog the roads. Slows down the Ukrainian advance. Still, a great victory for Ukraine. It also may be that the experience of this Ukrainian, even if accurate, is not representative. It will take a while to get "accurate" reports.

[Goose]

Looks like Lyman was a bloodbath for the Russians.

https://twitter.com/casualartyfan/status...S0Ifyee0UQ

How embarrassing for Putin. Ukraine takes a Russian city literally the day after Russia annexes it (yes, OF, I am being sarcastic here).  FwIW I don’t know what media you listen to, but every time I hear the word “referendum” it’s preceded by the word “sham” and every time I’ve heard “annexation” it was just after the word “illegal”.

BC

---

Not sure if this is real or fanfic, but interesting reading and consistent with other evidence.  Purportedly from a Ukrainian volunteer.

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpr...slaughter/

BC

If accurate, not as good as one would hope. Sounds like Ukraine didn't really get behind them and control the roads before they started to retreat. Sounds a bit like Falaise. Lots of Germans got out. There will be lots of Russians KIA/WIA but too many will get out and they will clog the roads. Slows down the Ukrainian advance. Still, a great victory for Ukraine. It also may be that the experience of this Ukrainian, even if accurate, is not representative. It will take a while to get "accurate" reports.

[dabigv13]

If it's a dissapointment to bring to mind Falaise, historical shorthand for a really bad place to be and a brobdingnagian loss for the Germans that hastened their ultimate defeat, per Eisenhower "unquestionably one of the greatest killing fields of any of the war areas", then I hope to see many more such dissapointments.

[dabigv13]

If it's a dissapointment to bring to mind Falaise, historical shorthand for a really bad place to be and a brobdingnagian loss for the Germans that hastened their ultimate defeat, per Eisenhower "unquestionably one of the greatest killing fields of any of the war areas", then I hope to see many more such dissapointments.

[Treefence]

I think we will know more over time, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of Russians made it out, but it does sound like a lot of them were killed fleeing, both by artillery, and their own minefields, as they tried to avoid the road.  Ukrainian MOD is saying all Russians were either killed or captured, I highly doubt that is true, but we might now now for sure how many POW's were captured, unless there is a very large POW exchange.  

I've heard reports that Russia does not want to exchange POW's unless they are pilots or high ranking officers, this might just be propaganda, as Russia needs trained men more than anything else, besides good leadership.  

It's important to note, regardless of how many KIA or POW's the Russians suffered, the liberation of Lyman and other cities continues to prove that Ukraine has the initiative, and there's no reason to think that will stop.  I think Ukraine has proven that the Kharkiv offensive wasn't a fluke.

[Treefence]

I think we will know more over time, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of Russians made it out, but it does sound like a lot of them were killed fleeing, both by artillery, and their own minefields, as they tried to avoid the road.  Ukrainian MOD is saying all Russians were either killed or captured, I highly doubt that is true, but we might now now for sure how many POW's were captured, unless there is a very large POW exchange.  

I've heard reports that Russia does not want to exchange POW's unless they are pilots or high ranking officers, this might just be propaganda, as Russia needs trained men more than anything else, besides good leadership.  

It's important to note, regardless of how many KIA or POW's the Russians suffered, the liberation of Lyman and other cities continues to prove that Ukraine has the initiative, and there's no reason to think that will stop.  I think Ukraine has proven that the Kharkiv offensive wasn't a fluke.

[BostonCard]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/darthputinkgb/status/1576307188091744256?s=46&t=4V1xJT_JnqsVS0Ifyee0UQ[/tweet]

Roflmao

BC

[BostonCard]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/darthputinkgb/status/1576307188091744256?s=46&t=4V1xJT_JnqsVS0Ifyee0UQ[/tweet]

Roflmao

BC

[Goose]

If it's a dissapointment to bring to mind Falaise, historical shorthand for a really bad place to be and a of immense proportions loss for the Germans that hastened their ultimate defeat, per Eisenhower "unquestionably one of the greatest killing fields of any of the war areas", then I hope to see many more such dissapointments.

Agree totally. That said, if the Falaise pocket had been closed effectively the German army would have been unable to reconstitute itself as rapidly as it did. Skeleton formations are much easier to rebuild than starting from scratch. The war could have ended much quicker with the Russian army much further east. Eisenhower never said that, but many of his associates did. Of course, the Lyman pocket was "only" a few thousand troops, best case, and wasn't going to end the war either way.

---

I think we will know more over time, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of Russians made it out, but it does sound like a lot of them were killed fleeing, both by artillery, and their own minefields, as they tried to avoid the road.

Lots of those mines were laid by Ukrainian artillery.

Ukrainian MOD is saying all Russians were either killed or captured, I highly doubt that is true, but we might now now for sure how many POW's were captured, unless there is a very large POW exchange.

Even if there will eventually be a big POW exchange, Ukraine will undoubtedly report on the number of POWs captured. They have to report that to the Red Cross anyway.

I've heard reports that Russia does not want to exchange POW's unless they are pilots or high ranking officers, this might just be propaganda, as Russia needs trained men more than anything else, besides good leadership.

Russia doesn't want the "rank and file" back because they know first hand that Russia doesn't care about it's troops and that you can survive surrender. It will "infect" the others. In addition, Russia being (justifiably) paranoid fears that Ukraine may have "turned" many of the POWs, who will sabotage equipment and spy for Ukraine. They may actually incite a rebellion. If exchanged, they are all going far,far away (if they are lucky).  

It's important to note, regardless of how many KIA or POW's the Russians suffered, the liberation of Lyman and other cities continues to prove that Ukraine has the initiative, and there's no reason to think that will stop.  I think Ukraine has proven that the Kharkiv offensive wasn't a fluke.

Maybe. The character of this offensive is different from Kharkiv. One thing we aren't going to get (very probably) is a report on Ukrainian casualties. They are undoubtedly heavier than the Kharkiv ones based on the reports of heavier resistance. It is a victory, and a big one. If Ukraine can keep advancing then we can be pretty sure they have at least adequate forces. If they have to regroup and stop to do so, that could indicate a big "butcher's bill". They have at least 10 more days with no serious rain. We shall see.

[Goose]

If it's a dissapointment to bring to mind Falaise, historical shorthand for a really bad place to be and a of immense proportions loss for the Germans that hastened their ultimate defeat, per Eisenhower "unquestionably one of the greatest killing fields of any of the war areas", then I hope to see many more such dissapointments.

Agree totally. That said, if the Falaise pocket had been closed effectively the German army would have been unable to reconstitute itself as rapidly as it did. Skeleton formations are much easier to rebuild than starting from scratch. The war could have ended much quicker with the Russian army much further east. Eisenhower never said that, but many of his associates did. Of course, the Lyman pocket was "only" a few thousand troops, best case, and wasn't going to end the war either way.

---

I think we will know more over time, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of Russians made it out, but it does sound like a lot of them were killed fleeing, both by artillery, and their own minefields, as they tried to avoid the road.

Lots of those mines were laid by Ukrainian artillery.

Ukrainian MOD is saying all Russians were either killed or captured, I highly doubt that is true, but we might now now for sure how many POW's were captured, unless there is a very large POW exchange.

Even if there will eventually be a big POW exchange, Ukraine will undoubtedly report on the number of POWs captured. They have to report that to the Red Cross anyway.

I've heard reports that Russia does not want to exchange POW's unless they are pilots or high ranking officers, this might just be propaganda, as Russia needs trained men more than anything else, besides good leadership.

Russia doesn't want the "rank and file" back because they know first hand that Russia doesn't care about it's troops and that you can survive surrender. It will "infect" the others. In addition, Russia being (justifiably) paranoid fears that Ukraine may have "turned" many of the POWs, who will sabotage equipment and spy for Ukraine. They may actually incite a rebellion. If exchanged, they are all going far,far away (if they are lucky).  

It's important to note, regardless of how many KIA or POW's the Russians suffered, the liberation of Lyman and other cities continues to prove that Ukraine has the initiative, and there's no reason to think that will stop.  I think Ukraine has proven that the Kharkiv offensive wasn't a fluke.

Maybe. The character of this offensive is different from Kharkiv. One thing we aren't going to get (very probably) is a report on Ukrainian casualties. They are undoubtedly heavier than the Kharkiv ones based on the reports of heavier resistance. It is a victory, and a big one. If Ukraine can keep advancing then we can be pretty sure they have at least adequate forces. If they have to regroup and stop to do so, that could indicate a big "butcher's bill". They have at least 10 more days with no serious rain. We shall see.

[OutsiderFan]

If it's a dissapointment to bring to mind Falaise, historical shorthand for a really bad place to be and a of immense proportions loss for the Germans that hastened their ultimate defeat, per Eisenhower "unquestionably one of the greatest killing fields of any of the war areas", then I hope to see many more such dissapointments.

Agree totally. That said, if the Falaise pocket had been closed effectively the German army would have been unable to reconstitute itself as rapidly as it did. Skeleton formations are much easier to rebuild than starting from scratch. The war could have ended much quicker with the Russian army much further east. Eisenhower never said that, but many of his associates did. Of course, the Lyman pocket was "only" a few thousand troops, best case, and wasn't going to end the war either way.

I read something that said Ukraine taking Lyman is a big deal because it beat one of Russia's better armies to achieve the objective. Ergo, if Ukraine can take territory held by the enemy's best, it can probably whip much less capable Russian forces in other areas. Of course, I don't know how good the Ukraine forces are that took Lyman. Like was it Ukraine's best, or just an average Ukrainian force. We always talk about strength of opponent in sports. Not any different in war battles. In other words, quality of the fighters doing the fighting - and how they are equipped - matters when trying to assess who can beat who.

[OutsiderFan]

If it's a dissapointment to bring to mind Falaise, historical shorthand for a really bad place to be and a of immense proportions loss for the Germans that hastened their ultimate defeat, per Eisenhower "unquestionably one of the greatest killing fields of any of the war areas", then I hope to see many more such dissapointments.

Agree totally. That said, if the Falaise pocket had been closed effectively the German army would have been unable to reconstitute itself as rapidly as it did. Skeleton formations are much easier to rebuild than starting from scratch. The war could have ended much quicker with the Russian army much further east. Eisenhower never said that, but many of his associates did. Of course, the Lyman pocket was "only" a few thousand troops, best case, and wasn't going to end the war either way.

I read something that said Ukraine taking Lyman is a big deal because it beat one of Russia's better armies to achieve the objective. Ergo, if Ukraine can take territory held by the enemy's best, it can probably whip much less capable Russian forces in other areas. Of course, I don't know how good the Ukraine forces are that took Lyman. Like was it Ukraine's best, or just an average Ukrainian force. We always talk about strength of opponent in sports. Not any different in war battles. In other words, quality of the fighters doing the fighting - and how they are equipped - matters when trying to assess who can beat who.

[BostonCard]

Time will, of course tell, but reports are that like the previous offensive, Russia had very little behind Lyman and that now that Ukraine has broken through, they may be able to keep going.

BC

[BostonCard]

Time will, of course tell, but reports are that like the previous offensive, Russia had very little behind Lyman and that now that Ukraine has broken through, they may be able to keep going.

BC

[Treefence]

There are early reports that the Ukrainians are making a push from the north eastern Kherson region, still early so we shall see what success they have, previous offensives in the Kherson region have yielded limited results for both sides.

[Treefence]

There are early reports that the Ukrainians are making a push from the north eastern Kherson region, still early so we shall see what success they have, previous offensives in the Kherson region have yielded limited results for both sides.

[Goose]

I read something that said Ukraine taking Lyman is a big deal because it beat one of Russia's better armies to achieve the objective. Ergo, if Ukraine can take territory held by the enemy's best, it can probably whip much less capable Russian forces in other areas. Of course, I don't know how good the Ukraine forces are that took Lyman. Like was it Ukraine's best, or just an average Ukrainian force. We always talk about strength of opponent in sports. Not any different in war battles. In other words, quality of the fighters doing the fighting - and how they are equipped - matters when trying to assess who can beat who.

It isn't probable the forces in Lyman were "Russia's best", though these days, who knows? There was one Russian regiment, which might have been pretty good, and two DPR regiments, which are (were) at best militia and not very good.

Unlike sports, battles are fought between forces that are not required to be in any way "equal". In fact, both sides try hard to make sure they are not. Also unlike sports, both sides have different goals. Figuring out what "winning" means can sometimes be difficult. Russians used to be big on what they called "the correlation of forces". Never seemed to quite work out for them. Assessing who will win a given battle, let alone a given war, can be real tricky. Halfway through the "season", the other team may get HIMARS through the transfer portal.

[Goose]

I read something that said Ukraine taking Lyman is a big deal because it beat one of Russia's better armies to achieve the objective. Ergo, if Ukraine can take territory held by the enemy's best, it can probably whip much less capable Russian forces in other areas. Of course, I don't know how good the Ukraine forces are that took Lyman. Like was it Ukraine's best, or just an average Ukrainian force. We always talk about strength of opponent in sports. Not any different in war battles. In other words, quality of the fighters doing the fighting - and how they are equipped - matters when trying to assess who can beat who.

It isn't probable the forces in Lyman were "Russia's best", though these days, who knows? There was one Russian regiment, which might have been pretty good, and two DPR regiments, which are (were) at best militia and not very good.

Unlike sports, battles are fought between forces that are not required to be in any way "equal". In fact, both sides try hard to make sure they are not. Also unlike sports, both sides have different goals. Figuring out what "winning" means can sometimes be difficult. Russians used to be big on what they called "the correlation of forces". Never seemed to quite work out for them. Assessing who will win a given battle, let alone a given war, can be real tricky. Halfway through the "season", the other team may get HIMARS through the transfer portal.

[Treefence]

This is one of the better follows on Twitter for updates, he has lots of sources on both sides, and spends a lot of time.  He mentions that Ukraine has made some advances on the north Oskil river axis, and that Russia suffered major casualties in the Lyman withdrawal.  He also mentions that there are significant attacks on the Kherson front, mainly in the North East, and specifically at Davydiv Brid.  Wouldn't it be fund if Ukraine could start Liberating Kherson fully, after Putin's attempted "annexation"... 

https://www.ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/u...ctober-1st

Twitter Handle: @andrewperpetua

[Treefence]

This is one of the better follows on Twitter for updates, he has lots of sources on both sides, and spends a lot of time.  He mentions that Ukraine has made some advances on the north Oskil river axis, and that Russia suffered major casualties in the Lyman withdrawal.  He also mentions that there are significant attacks on the Kherson front, mainly in the North East, and specifically at Davydiv Brid.  Wouldn't it be fund if Ukraine could start Liberating Kherson fully, after Putin's attempted "annexation"... 

https://www.ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/u...ctober-1st

Twitter Handle: @andrewperpetua

[Goose]

This is one of the better follows on Twitter for updates, he has lots of sources on both sides, and spends a lot of time.  He mentions that Ukraine has made some advances on the north Oskil river axis, and that Russia suffered major casualties in the Lyman withdrawal.  He also mentions that there are significant attacks on the Kherson front, mainly in the North East, and specifically at Davydiv Brid.  Wouldn't it be fund if Ukraine could start Liberating Kherson fully, after Putin's attempted "annexation"... 

https://www.ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/u...ctober-1st

Twitter Handle: @andrewperpetua

I believe the ultimate target of the attacks on Davydiv Brid is Charivne. Supposedly there is a major concentration of artillery there that is the last "speed bump" on the road to Nova Kakhovka. Supposedly this route is a tough nut to crack, but if they can do it it is pretty direct. The problem would be it is a narrow corridor if the Russians don't run.

Another area to keep an eye on is near Dokuchaievsk in Donetsk Oblast. It is a railroad junction city similar in size to Lyman. It is also quite near the front lines in that area. It is on the rail line that traverses the "land bridge" to Kherson/Crimea. Take it and that GLOC is gone. The M14 would still be available to the Russians, but we know that rail transport works best for them. I have no idea how feasible such an action would be, but on paper it looks tempting.

[Goose]

This is one of the better follows on Twitter for updates, he has lots of sources on both sides, and spends a lot of time.  He mentions that Ukraine has made some advances on the north Oskil river axis, and that Russia suffered major casualties in the Lyman withdrawal.  He also mentions that there are significant attacks on the Kherson front, mainly in the North East, and specifically at Davydiv Brid.  Wouldn't it be fund if Ukraine could start Liberating Kherson fully, after Putin's attempted "annexation"... 

https://www.ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/u...ctober-1st

Twitter Handle: @andrewperpetua

I believe the ultimate target of the attacks on Davydiv Brid is Charivne. Supposedly there is a major concentration of artillery there that is the last "speed bump" on the road to Nova Kakhovka. Supposedly this route is a tough nut to crack, but if they can do it it is pretty direct. The problem would be it is a narrow corridor if the Russians don't run.

Another area to keep an eye on is near Dokuchaievsk in Donetsk Oblast. It is a railroad junction city similar in size to Lyman. It is also quite near the front lines in that area. It is on the rail line that traverses the "land bridge" to Kherson/Crimea. Take it and that GLOC is gone. The M14 would still be available to the Russians, but we know that rail transport works best for them. I have no idea how feasible such an action would be, but on paper it looks tempting.

[BostonCard]

Looks like Ukraine is looking to take Kreminna next, in order to threaten Lyshyshansk/Severodonetsk.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1576568259603668993?s=46&t=Nqya3i98uQhxIJAlJ2Eonw[/tweet]

BC

---

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-gai...1664707959

Of note…

Russia’s Defense Ministry said it was withdrawing troops from the city following days of advances by Ukrainian forces to surround them, but Moscow kept several thousand troops there, most likely encircled until fighting ended.

So it looks like Ukraine captured “several thousand” Russian prisoners.

BC

[BostonCard]

Looks like Ukraine is looking to take Kreminna next, in order to threaten Lyshyshansk/Severodonetsk.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1576568259603668993?s=46&t=Nqya3i98uQhxIJAlJ2Eonw[/tweet]

BC

---

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-gai...1664707959

Of note…

Russia’s Defense Ministry said it was withdrawing troops from the city following days of advances by Ukrainian forces to surround them, but Moscow kept several thousand troops there, most likely encircled until fighting ended.

So it looks like Ukraine captured “several thousand” Russian prisoners.

BC

[TrumpCard]

If I were speculating on the next target for Ukraine, it would be an area that Russia is deprioritizing. Ukraine has been smart about not wasting too many lives or resources attacking into the teeth of Russia’s defense. ISW seems to think that target is Luhansk. Strange that Russia spent so many lives and resources to take that territory this spring and now isn’t doing more to defend its spoils. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar...4436800512

[TrumpCard]

If I were speculating on the next target for Ukraine, it would be an area that Russia is deprioritizing. Ukraine has been smart about not wasting too many lives or resources attacking into the teeth of Russia’s defense. ISW seems to think that target is Luhansk. Strange that Russia spent so many lives and resources to take that territory this spring and now isn’t doing more to defend its spoils. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar...4436800512

[BostonCard]

Also super interesting…

[tweet]https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1576601504953249792?s=46&t=Nqya3i98uQhxIJAlJ2Eonw[/tweet]

I guess the Ukrainian offense will continue taking what the defense gives them.  Also suggests that the going in Kherson will be a slow slog for a while, but if Ukraine breaks through there, it might be “game over”.

BC

---

Lol, TrumpCard, you beat me to it.

BC

[BostonCard]

Also super interesting…

[tweet]https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1576601504953249792?s=46&t=Nqya3i98uQhxIJAlJ2Eonw[/tweet]

I guess the Ukrainian offense will continue taking what the defense gives them.  Also suggests that the going in Kherson will be a slow slog for a while, but if Ukraine breaks through there, it might be “game over”.

BC

---

Lol, TrumpCard, you beat me to it.

BC

[Treefence]

Lots of Russian bloggers saying the North East front for Russians has collapsed in Kherson.  I'm sure we will learn more, but could be more positive news for Ukraine soon.

[Treefence]

Lots of Russian bloggers saying the North East front for Russians has collapsed in Kherson.  I'm sure we will learn more, but could be more positive news for Ukraine soon.

[Goose]

If I were speculating on the next target for Ukraine, it would be an area that Russia is deprioritizing. Ukraine has been smart about not wasting too many lives or resources attacking into the teeth of Russia’s defense. ISW seems to think that target is Luhansk. Strange that Russia spent so many lives and resources to take that territory this spring and now isn’t doing more to defend its spoils. 
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar...4436800512

Also super interesting…

https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status...IJAlJ2Eonw

I guess the Ukrainian offense will continue taking what the defense gives them.  Also suggests that the going in Kherson will be a slow slog for a while, but if Ukraine breaks through there, it might be “game over”.

BC

When your enemy does something that makes no sense to you, it is wise to look at the possibilities. Obviously, since this whole "adventure" by Putin and Russia makes no sense this examination is more difficult than usual. As I see it there are four possibilities
1) Putin is aware of the tactical problems in Kherson and is scared to death Ukraine will take, or at least threaten to take, Crimea. Putin believes he can't allow that at any cost and will accept losses elsewhere to ensure that doesn't happen.
2)Putin is cynically expending the military of the DPR and LPR to kill as many Ukrainians as possible (including those fighting for the militias) while husbanding his own strength. Next spring he will unleash a counter-offensive with these preserved resources that will sweep away the over-extended Ukrainian troops who are still trying to replace the losses of the Autumn offensive. This has for him the "bonus" that the male population of Donetsk and Luhansk will be decimated so they can't rebel even if they wanted to do so. Some Russian milbloggers are pushing this theory.
3)Putin believes that the north can be held with the troops that are there and these "minor setbacks" are caused by bad generalship and bad logistics. He is trying to fix both of these by replacing the leadership. He may also believe Ukraine is nearing the end of their resources and will not have the troop strength to continue, or that the rain and bad winter weather (which comes earlier in the Donbas) will call a halt to offensive operations.
4)Putin believes he can take back the Donbas whenever he wants to do so. What he wants to do now is take Odessa. To do that, he is transferring his more elite forces to the south. He may actually expect this offensive to take place in the winter when (if) the river freezes. It also may be he intends it for late February as he did the initial invasion. He is doing this now in order to allow these units to recover from their losses and to improve their offensive capabilities.

Number 4 could be a problem. I think most of us believe the Russian military is pretty "bad". There are plenty of reasons to believe this, but it is possible they have found some leadership that can actually make them effective. Anything Ukraine can do to preempt this possibility is a "good idea" in my view. It also takes advantage of the current Russian tactical disadvantage that may not last forever.

I hate to mention this, but one known "play" in the Soviet playbook was to use a tactical nuclear weapon to "break open" a stalemated front followed by an immediate all-out assault through the rather large void created thereby. They practiced this. That is why virtually all their vehicles were NBC capable. Some talking heads are saying the current Russian army couldn't execute this because they couldn't deal with the contaminated battle area. Lets hope Putin reads those reports.

[Goose]

If I were speculating on the next target for Ukraine, it would be an area that Russia is deprioritizing. Ukraine has been smart about not wasting too many lives or resources attacking into the teeth of Russia’s defense. ISW seems to think that target is Luhansk. Strange that Russia spent so many lives and resources to take that territory this spring and now isn’t doing more to defend its spoils. 
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar...4436800512

Also super interesting…

https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status...IJAlJ2Eonw

I guess the Ukrainian offense will continue taking what the defense gives them.  Also suggests that the going in Kherson will be a slow slog for a while, but if Ukraine breaks through there, it might be “game over”.

BC

When your enemy does something that makes no sense to you, it is wise to look at the possibilities. Obviously, since this whole "adventure" by Putin and Russia makes no sense this examination is more difficult than usual. As I see it there are four possibilities
1) Putin is aware of the tactical problems in Kherson and is scared to death Ukraine will take, or at least threaten to take, Crimea. Putin believes he can't allow that at any cost and will accept losses elsewhere to ensure that doesn't happen.
2)Putin is cynically expending the military of the DPR and LPR to kill as many Ukrainians as possible (including those fighting for the militias) while husbanding his own strength. Next spring he will unleash a counter-offensive with these preserved resources that will sweep away the over-extended Ukrainian troops who are still trying to replace the losses of the Autumn offensive. This has for him the "bonus" that the male population of Donetsk and Luhansk will be decimated so they can't rebel even if they wanted to do so. Some Russian milbloggers are pushing this theory.
3)Putin believes that the north can be held with the troops that are there and these "minor setbacks" are caused by bad generalship and bad logistics. He is trying to fix both of these by replacing the leadership. He may also believe Ukraine is nearing the end of their resources and will not have the troop strength to continue, or that the rain and bad winter weather (which comes earlier in the Donbas) will call a halt to offensive operations.
4)Putin believes he can take back the Donbas whenever he wants to do so. What he wants to do now is take Odessa. To do that, he is transferring his more elite forces to the south. He may actually expect this offensive to take place in the winter when (if) the river freezes. It also may be he intends it for late February as he did the initial invasion. He is doing this now in order to allow these units to recover from their losses and to improve their offensive capabilities.

Number 4 could be a problem. I think most of us believe the Russian military is pretty "bad". There are plenty of reasons to believe this, but it is possible they have found some leadership that can actually make them effective. Anything Ukraine can do to preempt this possibility is a "good idea" in my view. It also takes advantage of the current Russian tactical disadvantage that may not last forever.

I hate to mention this, but one known "play" in the Soviet playbook was to use a tactical nuclear weapon to "break open" a stalemated front followed by an immediate all-out assault through the rather large void created thereby. They practiced this. That is why virtually all their vehicles were NBC capable. Some talking heads are saying the current Russian army couldn't execute this because they couldn't deal with the contaminated battle area. Lets hope Putin reads those reports.

[M T]

Some things to think about....
 
Wikipedia indicates "On 24 February 2022, the Ukrainian electricity grid disconnected from the post-Soviet IPS/UPS grid, ahead of synchronizing with the Synchronous grid of Continental Europe which was achieved on March 16."
"...on 24 February 2022, the conflict saw a major escalation as Russia invaded mainland Ukraine."
"The [ZNPP] plant generates nearly half of the country's electricity derived from nuclear power,[3] and more than a fifth of total electricity generated in Ukraine'

In ISW's analysis today:

Russia is likely setting conditions to assume legal responsibility for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Russian authorities detained the general director of the ZNPP, Ihor Murashov, on September 30.[7] A Russian miblogger ... stated that authorities are currently undertaking ”routine“ legal work to transfer control of the plant to Russian state nuclear energy corporation Rosatom and create a new legal entity for the ZNPP.[8] Murashov’s detention and the ”legal” process of transferring control of the ZNPP to Rosatom are noteworthy indications that Russian authorities will likely seek to exploit their control of the ZNPP to pressure the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to legitimize the illegal Russian annexations of occupied Ukrainian territory by coercing it to acknowledge Russia‘s legal control over the ZNPP

....[Recent action] suggests that Putin cares far more about holding the strategic terrain of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts than he does about Luhansk Oblast..

Obviously, the build-up to an invasion as well as the decision to switch grids were not done in a day.  But the timing might indicate a trigger, or perhaps the last straw.

If Putin needed the claim of the sham referendums as a necessary step to make a claim to the IAEA, perhaps that's why he did them, knowing that virtually every country would laugh them off.   Controlling/squeezing a major segment of what was Ukraine's electricity production will impact Ukraine and, indirectly, the EU.

[M T]

Some things to think about....
 
Wikipedia indicates "On 24 February 2022, the Ukrainian electricity grid disconnected from the post-Soviet IPS/UPS grid, ahead of synchronizing with the Synchronous grid of Continental Europe which was achieved on March 16."
"...on 24 February 2022, the conflict saw a major escalation as Russia invaded mainland Ukraine."
"The [ZNPP] plant generates nearly half of the country's electricity derived from nuclear power,[3] and more than a fifth of total electricity generated in Ukraine'

In ISW's analysis today:

Russia is likely setting conditions to assume legal responsibility for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Russian authorities detained the general director of the ZNPP, Ihor Murashov, on September 30.[7] A Russian miblogger ... stated that authorities are currently undertaking ”routine“ legal work to transfer control of the plant to Russian state nuclear energy corporation Rosatom and create a new legal entity for the ZNPP.[8] Murashov’s detention and the ”legal” process of transferring control of the ZNPP to Rosatom are noteworthy indications that Russian authorities will likely seek to exploit their control of the ZNPP to pressure the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to legitimize the illegal Russian annexations of occupied Ukrainian territory by coercing it to acknowledge Russia‘s legal control over the ZNPP

....[Recent action] suggests that Putin cares far more about holding the strategic terrain of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts than he does about Luhansk Oblast..

Obviously, the build-up to an invasion as well as the decision to switch grids were not done in a day.  But the timing might indicate a trigger, or perhaps the last straw.

If Putin needed the claim of the sham referendums as a necessary step to make a claim to the IAEA, perhaps that's why he did them, knowing that virtually every country would laugh them off.   Controlling/squeezing a major segment of what was Ukraine's electricity production will impact Ukraine and, indirectly, the EU.

[BostonCard]

Good analysis, Goose.  My guess is that he wants the land bridge and Odessa, and is willing to give up the Donbas to get it.  And yeah, his nightmare scenario is losing Crimea.

BC

[BostonCard]

Good analysis, Goose.  My guess is that he wants the land bridge and Odessa, and is willing to give up the Donbas to get it.  And yeah, his nightmare scenario is losing Crimea.

BC

[BostonCard]

Lots of Russian bloggers saying the North East front for Russians has collapsed in Kherson.  I'm sure we will learn more, but could be more positive news for Ukraine soon.

I see this…

[tweet]https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1576602192990961664?s=21&t=R1B-PnkjRR3fQhCHl5K4Pg[/tweet]

BC

---

And here is Rob Lee (one of the best OSINT guys on twitter, trolling Russian telegram channels so we don’t have to).

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1576658889637961728?s=21&t=R1B-PnkjRR3fQhCHl5K4Pg[/tweet]

BC

---

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1576697133847040000?s=21&t=R1B-PnkjRR3fQhCHl5K4Pg[/tweet]

Another cauldron bubbling?

BC

[BostonCard]

Lots of Russian bloggers saying the North East front for Russians has collapsed in Kherson.  I'm sure we will learn more, but could be more positive news for Ukraine soon.

I see this…

[tweet]https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1576602192990961664?s=21&t=R1B-PnkjRR3fQhCHl5K4Pg[/tweet]

BC

---

And here is Rob Lee (one of the best OSINT guys on twitter, trolling Russian telegram channels so we don’t have to).

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1576658889637961728?s=21&t=R1B-PnkjRR3fQhCHl5K4Pg[/tweet]

BC

---

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1576697133847040000?s=21&t=R1B-PnkjRR3fQhCHl5K4Pg[/tweet]

Another cauldron bubbling?

BC

[Treefence]

Add one more source, this person tends to trust Russian sources more than Ukrainian sources, doesn't mean this is accurate, but if so it would be a major breakthrough by Ukraine. 

[tweet][url=https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1576676435053666304?s=20&t=CqFKLulk56pFIMP5TL90TQ]https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1576676435053666304?s=20&t=CqFKLulk56pFIMP5TL90TQ[/tweet]

[Treefence]

Add one more source, this person tends to trust Russian sources more than Ukrainian sources, doesn't mean this is accurate, but if so it would be a major breakthrough by Ukraine. 

[tweet][url=https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1576676435053666304?s=20&t=CqFKLulk56pFIMP5TL90TQ]https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1576676435053666304?s=20&t=CqFKLulk56pFIMP5TL90TQ[/tweet]