03-30-2023, 09:52 AM
(03-30-2023, 08:17 AM)Goose Wrote:(03-30-2023, 07:31 AM)TrumpCard Wrote: The fog of war is real. Could these assessments of Bakhmut be more different?Bakhmut is a very "interesting" battle. All in all, Ukraine has pretty much gotten the best results they could possibly have wanted. The Ukraine has lots of poorly trained but highly motivated infantry that lacks mobility but not courage. Bakhmut is a place where they can use those troops to full advantage without engaging the more mobile, better trained troops they are (supposedly) building up for a "combined arms" assault. These troops have inflicted very heavy casualties on the Wagner troops used in the assault and has apparently destroyed it's military potential. The Russians are now using mostly "regular" troops in that area. Russia is deeply committed, both in "word and deed" to the fight in and near Bakhmut. They are fixed in position and cannot easily disengage. That is good for Ukraine.
NYT this morning:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/30/world...ussia.html
ISW last night:
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status...WU_MYtAAAA
There are two factors that are not good for Ukraine. Recently the casualty ratio has become less favorable to Ukraine and has forced them to commit much higher levels of artillery support than they desired/planned for. This has reduced their stock of shells and worn out gun barrels that they wanted to use in their counter-offensive later in the spring. The casualties have also forced Ukraine to commit some "class 1" formations that they probably intended to hold in strategic reserve to exploit gaps created by the Ukrainian offensive. This could limit their ability to exploit advances in the future and is obviously not good. These units are not part of the "combined arms" assault force, but are units that would be needed right behind them to destroy bypassed Russian units and break up attempts to reorganize a defense as the striking force rapidly advances. These units also have a history of finding gaps in the Russian defenses that can be exploited.
The second factor is that Ukraine has created the expectation that they can and will hold Bakhmut. That unfortunately fixes a lot of their forces there, just as it does the Russians. That would be fine if Bakhmut was of great importance in and of itself. However it isn't. Ukraine is now committed to defend a place they otherwise could just walk away from. It is true the terrain around Bakhmut is better than the terrain immediately behind it for defensive purposes, but not by that much. Ukraine can't change their story now. Giving up Bakhmut, while not inherently disastrous, now is politically disastrous. Ukraine is boxed in. and that is never a good thing.
All this makes sense, but it seems like the reporting is not even consistent on whether Ukraine will be able to keep Bakhmut. NYT is saying that Russia's forces are exhausted and won't be able to take Bakhmut. ISW is saying that Russia has taken 5% of the city in the last week, is consolidating those gains, and is positioned to take more in the near future.
When I registered here in 2014, TrumpCard seemed like an apolitical user ID...

