02-02-2025, 05:51 PM
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1738439781' Wrote: 1738439781[/url]']
I really hope Buster was deking the entire baseball world when he stated that we were done with the lineup that we have. We missed the wild card spot by nine games which is a big number. Also missing the playoffs, but in front of us were the DBacks (89 wins), the Cubs and Cardinals (83 each).
The odds of making the playoffs are stacked against SF this year. My expectations are focused on seeing more athleticism, better defense and timely hitting. While that doesn’t necessarily mean the Giants are playoff bound, it does mean they will be moving back towards being a contender down the road. If nothing else, I am hopeful the days of taking pitches down the middle are over. Good riddance to Zaidi baseball.
I don't see the Dodgers (98 wins), Philllies (95), Brewers (93) or Padres (93) falling off much, though the Brewers may drop back a bit. The Braves, Mets and Diamondbacks all won 89.
It will take a minor miracle for the Giants to sniff the playoffs. We lost Snell (2.1), Soler (1.1), Conforto (1.3) and Ta. Rogers (1.1), but not much else. Sabol (0.3). Estrada was -0.5.
This is addition by subtraction. I was happy to see all of those guys leave.
Here's what I think needs to happen -- at least 75% of this -- for the Giants to get into the playoffs:
1. Adames needs to keep form, in fact improve a bit from his 3.1 WAR...seems odd his WAR was that low with 32 HRs.
He had a poor year defensively. That had a significant impact on his WAR. Playing league average SS should pump his WAR by at least a point.
2. Chapman can't slip, needs at least 6.0 WAR (had 7.1).
Yep.
3. Wade and Flores needs to return to form and get near .800 OPS (up from .761 and .595 and I sure hope it was just the knee for Wilmer).
Keeping the seat warm for Eldridge by playing league average both at bat and in the field is pretty all we can hope for.
4. Fitzgerald needs to avoid the sophomore slump and keep it up for a full year. It could happen.
Yep.
5. Yaz needs a 2.5 WAR year
I don’t see Yaz being the key to creating a plus situation in RF. SF needs either Matos or Luciano to step up this year and post some numbers.
6. Bailey needs to extend his hitting from May through the rest of the year. Big ask, I know but he came around in September so it could happen. And a backup catcher needs to emerge.
It’s all about sustaining his spring stats into summer. Can he do it? If the Giants want to contend in the future, Bailey has to produce. He may be the most important player on the team.
7. Jung Hoo Lee needs to be a legitimate leadoff man, .375 OBP up from .310. With his contact skills (only 13 strikeouts in 145 ABs) he could get there. Most importantly, he needs to figure it out against the good teams. He kills it against the Nationals, Rockies, Marlins and D'Backs.
It’s anyone’s guess regarding how he will do. Due to his injury, he is really a rookie heading into the season.
8. Oddly enough, I'm not worried about fielding. Ramos/Lee/Yaz should be fine in the OF, we have gold glovers at C, 3B and SS. When healthy, both Wade and Flores are more than competent. But we need to have a big rebound.
I agree. As a whole, it will be nice to finally watch guys who can field their position effectively.
9. Would be nice if Encarnacion could improve, and after a MLB season if he could get to .750 OPS (from .701), that would be acceptable. Failing that, Matos or Luciano would have to improve -- a lot. Hopefully, one of them will be the Ramos of 2025.
I think we will see a lot of mixing and matching at the DH spot. League average might be all we can hope for.
10. I'm cautiously optimistic about the starting pitching. I realize they're overloaded with starters, and I sure hope they can find five that don't suck.
This is an area where I am optimistic. I’m looking forward to seeing what the young guys can do. The future depends on them making significant headway this season.
11. Webb needs some fielding support.
And I think he will get it.
12. Robbie Ray needs a full return from surgery. This is his year.
We will know by June whether picking him up was a smart decision. I have my doubts.
13. Whatever was bothering Doval needs to be gone. Walker will be the closer, but Doval is still necessary.
Yep.
14. The good pitchers can't fall back; e.g., Tyler Rogers and Hjelle.
I believe this is the best unit on the team. I have a lot of confidence that the bullpen will be effective this year because the starters won’t need consistent bailing out after four innings. They shouldn’t be worn out by August (as in years past).
15. The injured pitchers from last year need to step up (Hicks, Beck, Winn, etc.).
A new regime equals better staff management.
16. Hicks needs to extend. He did 109 innings, would be nice if he could get to 140.
He learned a lot last year. Applying those learnings will yield at least 140 innings.
17. The young pitchers on the cusp of greatness need to step up. Birdsong, Harrison, Roupp, Bivens, Black, etc.
I think that at least a couple of them will.
18. Verlander needs to win 13.
Wow! That’s optimistic. I think 10 is pretty much all we can expect.
19. We need strong seasons from three of these five: Meckler, Wisely, McCray, Villar and/or Schmitt.
Another Wow! Comment. Heck, if even one of that group produces at league average, I would be surprised.
20. A big minor league or free agent surprise, maybe Sam Huff who had a great 2023.
While I do not expect anyone will come out of spring training with Randy Elliot numbers, I do expect a big mid-season deal if the Giants are reasonably close to the group vying for a playoff spot. Unlike his predecessor, I think Posey will be a player at the trade deadline.
I think 15 of the 20 need to happen for the Giants to have a shot at the playoffs.
As noted earlier, I believe the playoffs are a long shot at best this year. At this point, I’m in the 75-80 wins camp. Once we get closer to Opening Day, it will be time to post the annual prediction.
The Giants finished 17th in runs per game at 4.28, below MLB average of 4.39.
The Giants finished 16th in runs allowed per game at 4.31, just better than the 4.39 average.
The Giants finished 27th in Rtot (-46) in fielding. That's not good. They were average in errors and fielding percentage, actually finished 8th in DPs.
WAR by position. Disastrous at most positions:
3B 1st. Stay healthy, Chappy.
RF 12th. Congrats, Yaz, you get to keep your job.
1B 15th. Eldridge can't come fast enough.
RP 15th. Relief pitching was slightly better than average.
LF 17th. Ramos should improve that.
C 19th. If Bailey bats better, this should improve.
CF 21st. Lee should improve that.
DH 21st. Can Jerar do better?
SP 21st. Starting pitchers should do better this year.
SS 23rd...but Milwaukee (Adames) was only 19th. Hmmmm.
2B 28th. Hopefully Fitzpatrick changes that.
It's said you need to be strong up the middle. C, CF, SS and 2B don't look particularly strong.
Thoughts?

