[dabigv13]

Some notable recent developments-

Just as Putin talked w Trump, Ukrainians staged surprise raid into Russia’s Belgorod province, south of Kursk. I’m told op was 3 weeks in making, idea is to create a “buffer zone” like Putin threatened in Ukraine. A source says they are several km inside Russia, and moving.

https://x.com/olliecarroll/status/1902047656878264573

Putin and Trump had a 2 hour call. Seems Putin is rejecting a ceasefire.

https://x.com/shashj/status/1902048758411472960

It seems Putin kept Trump waiting for the planned call while doing a televised discussion. Interesting signalling.

https://x.com/maxseddon/status/1901983662662668631

Some neat recent vids-

3 North Korean SPG, hit by HIMARS DPICM cluster munitions

https://x.com/markito0171/status/1902031417804018149

Footage from a previous Patriot "SAMbush", where a stripped down Patriot unit deployed close to the front line to surprise Russian bombers. We have heard about these operations before but this is the first video footage.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1901721005535490218

Cool vid of a Ukraine Mig releasing SDBs while doing a barrel roll

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1901255386545471799

[dabigv13]

Some notable recent developments-

Just as Putin talked w Trump, Ukrainians staged surprise raid into Russia’s Belgorod province, south of Kursk. I’m told op was 3 weeks in making, idea is to create a “buffer zone” like Putin threatened in Ukraine. A source says they are several km inside Russia, and moving.

https://x.com/olliecarroll/status/1902047656878264573

Putin and Trump had a 2 hour call. Seems Putin is rejecting a ceasefire.

https://x.com/shashj/status/1902048758411472960

It seems Putin kept Trump waiting for the planned call while doing a televised discussion. Interesting signalling.

https://x.com/maxseddon/status/1901983662662668631

Some neat recent vids-

3 North Korean SPG, hit by HIMARS DPICM cluster munitions

https://x.com/markito0171/status/1902031417804018149

Footage from a previous Patriot "SAMbush", where a stripped down Patriot unit deployed close to the front line to surprise Russian bombers. We have heard about these operations before but this is the first video footage.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1901721005535490218

Cool vid of a Ukraine Mig releasing SDBs while doing a barrel roll

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1901255386545471799

[Goose]

Putin and Trump had a 2 hour call. Seems Putin is rejecting a ceasefire.

Thanks for the multiple updates in this post. I am still hoping Putin will overplay his hand. It may be hard to predict when or if the US will conclude trying to broker a cease-fire is not going to work. I hope Putin reads it wrong and the backlash is "massive".

[Goose]

Putin and Trump had a 2 hour call. Seems Putin is rejecting a ceasefire.

Thanks for the multiple updates in this post. I am still hoping Putin will overplay his hand. It may be hard to predict when or if the US will conclude trying to broker a cease-fire is not going to work. I hope Putin reads it wrong and the backlash is "massive".

[dabigv13]

Here's the WH readout of the call

The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace. These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East.

.....

The two leaders agreed that a future with an improved bilateral relationship between the United States and Russia has brobdingnagian upside. This includes enormous economic deals and geopolitical stability when peace has been achieved.

https://x.com/PressSec/status/1902049487457071248

The emphasis on deals is IMHO not encouraging. Russia has very little to offer to the US in terms of trade. Talking that up in the readout seems to indicate Trump wants a deal no matter what. 

Trump publicly accepting Putin's version of Ukrainian troops desperately encircled in Kursk, as BC's post pointed out, is also a bad sign.

Not good for Ukraine.

The Kremlin’s readout of the Trump-Putin call says that a 30-day ceasefire must require Ukraine to stop the mobilization into its armed forces, its rearmament, and will require an end to foreign military assistance and intelligence cooperation. Basically a surrender.

https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1902060395407532536

Oh, and also the US and Russia are going to play some hockey matches on Putin's suggestion

US President Donald Trump supported an idea proposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin to organize US-Russia hockey matches, the Kremlin said Tuesday, following a call between the two leaders.

“Donald Trump supported Vladimir Putin’s idea to organize hockey matches in the USA and Russia between Russian and American players playing in the NHL and KHL,” the Kremlin said in a readout.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/t...index.html

[dabigv13]

Here's the WH readout of the call

The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace. These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East.

.....

The two leaders agreed that a future with an improved bilateral relationship between the United States and Russia has brobdingnagian upside. This includes enormous economic deals and geopolitical stability when peace has been achieved.

https://x.com/PressSec/status/1902049487457071248

The emphasis on deals is IMHO not encouraging. Russia has very little to offer to the US in terms of trade. Talking that up in the readout seems to indicate Trump wants a deal no matter what. 

Trump publicly accepting Putin's version of Ukrainian troops desperately encircled in Kursk, as BC's post pointed out, is also a bad sign.

Not good for Ukraine.

The Kremlin’s readout of the Trump-Putin call says that a 30-day ceasefire must require Ukraine to stop the mobilization into its armed forces, its rearmament, and will require an end to foreign military assistance and intelligence cooperation. Basically a surrender.

https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1902060395407532536

Oh, and also the US and Russia are going to play some hockey matches on Putin's suggestion

US President Donald Trump supported an idea proposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin to organize US-Russia hockey matches, the Kremlin said Tuesday, following a call between the two leaders.

“Donald Trump supported Vladimir Putin’s idea to organize hockey matches in the USA and Russia between Russian and American players playing in the NHL and KHL,” the Kremlin said in a readout.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/t...index.html

[82lsju]

It seems Putin kept Trump waiting for the planned call while doing a televised discussion. Interesting signalling.

At one start-up I worked for we had Russian investors.  CEO and CFO fly to Moscow to meet with the investors, they show up at their office for their appointment and are told "Sorry, ABC is busy come back tomorrow", they come back the next day and get the same treatment, they tell the assistant "we're going to the airport to catch our flight in two hours so hopefully ABC can see us now or we'll call him next week", ABC suddenly appeared....this was only one example of their petty gamesmanship....

[82lsju]

It seems Putin kept Trump waiting for the planned call while doing a televised discussion. Interesting signalling.

At one start-up I worked for we had Russian investors.  CEO and CFO fly to Moscow to meet with the investors, they show up at their office for their appointment and are told "Sorry, ABC is busy come back tomorrow", they come back the next day and get the same treatment, they tell the assistant "we're going to the airport to catch our flight in two hours so hopefully ABC can see us now or we'll call him next week", ABC suddenly appeared....this was only one example of their petty gamesmanship....

[Mick]

I used to work with an old attorney who, in his very younger days, opened a Russian office of his law firm. He was introduced to a young local political officer, and it was clear from this political officer, that they intended to do business of the most corrupt kind.

Can't tell you the attorney's name, but the young political officer's name was Putin.

They closed their Russian office inside of two years.

[Mick]

I used to work with an old attorney who, in his very younger days, opened a Russian office of his law firm. He was introduced to a young local political officer, and it was clear from this political officer, that they intended to do business of the most corrupt kind.

Can't tell you the attorney's name, but the young political officer's name was Putin.

They closed their Russian office inside of two years.

[BostonCard]

This is Putin’s MO.  He’s known to deliberately make people wait for him.  There’s a nice infographic on this here:  https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsintere...jdiTo3zIWs

When he met with Angela Merkel in 2007, who is afraid of dogs, Putin brought his black Labrador.

Putin denies he tried to frighten Merkel with dog Koni - https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/put...024-11-28/

BC

[BostonCard]

This is Putin’s MO.  He’s known to deliberately make people wait for him.  There’s a nice infographic on this here:  https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsintere...jdiTo3zIWs

When he met with Angela Merkel in 2007, who is afraid of dogs, Putin brought his black Labrador.

Putin denies he tried to frighten Merkel with dog Koni - https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/put...024-11-28/

BC

[dabigv13]

Critical difference between U.S. and Russian statements: Trump mentions a Russian commitment to an “energy and infrastructure ceasefire” but the Kremlin only talks of a 30-day mutual halt on strikes against “energy infrastructure.” Means Moscow has not agreed to stop attacks against ports, bridges, and other Ukrainian infrastructure.

And not even an hour later a Russian guided bomb takes out the power in the Ukrainian city of Slovyansk.

https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1902081849289273420

There is just no deal to be made with Putin. He is mocking the US. But our leadership seems on board with that. Why?

[dabigv13]

Critical difference between U.S. and Russian statements: Trump mentions a Russian commitment to an “energy and infrastructure ceasefire” but the Kremlin only talks of a 30-day mutual halt on strikes against “energy infrastructure.” Means Moscow has not agreed to stop attacks against ports, bridges, and other Ukrainian infrastructure.

And not even an hour later a Russian guided bomb takes out the power in the Ukrainian city of Slovyansk.

https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1902081849289273420

There is just no deal to be made with Putin. He is mocking the US. But our leadership seems on board with that. Why?

[BostonCard]

https://www.wsj.com/world/all-robot-assa..._permalink

Interesting article about a completely drone based assault on a Russian bunker including aerial and ground-based drones.

The December attack involved about 50 unmanned aerial vehicles and destroyed a Russian position north of the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, according to the force that conducted the operation, Ukraine’s 13th National Guard Brigade Khartiya. The Wall Street Journal viewed video footage of the assault.

The attack served as a proof of concept. Though it had its problems, other Ukrainian units are now planning similar missions.

BC

[BostonCard]

https://www.wsj.com/world/all-robot-assa..._permalink

Interesting article about a completely drone based assault on a Russian bunker including aerial and ground-based drones.

The December attack involved about 50 unmanned aerial vehicles and destroyed a Russian position north of the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, according to the force that conducted the operation, Ukraine’s 13th National Guard Brigade Khartiya. The Wall Street Journal viewed video footage of the assault.

The attack served as a proof of concept. Though it had its problems, other Ukrainian units are now planning similar missions.

BC

[dabigv13]

Neat article. Here is video of one type of recently deployed Ukrainian UGV, with a machine gun and mortar

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1836878921679180183

[dabigv13]

Neat article. Here is video of one type of recently deployed Ukrainian UGV, with a machine gun and mortar

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1836878921679180183

[GK3]

Putin and Trump had a 2 hour call. Seems Putin is rejecting a ceasefire.

Thanks for the multiple updates in this post. I am still hoping Putin will overplay his hand. It may be hard to predict when or if the US will conclude trying to broker a cease-fire is not going to work. I hope Putin reads it wrong and the backlash is "massive".

I just do not think that Ukraine will agree to someone else's negotiated "peace" unless Russia is on the verge of destroying the entire country.  As of now, Russia has hardly done what Putin thought they would 3 years ago.  More of their oil and gas infrastructure keeps getting hammered. 
It appears that Ukraine's ability to take out a good number of S400's has created problems where Russia has to keep moving what they have around to defend probable targets, then only to get hit where the just left.  A perfect situation for Ukraine's reported "in house" cruise missiles. 
I think if Ukraine had the same assets as Russia, the war would be over and Russia would not be the winner.
If Western Europe steps up and helps fill in for stuff we are no longer sending it will help a lot.  The result of all that has happened up to now has made Western Europe far more cognizant of the need for more arms and bigger armies.  I do not think Putin took this possibility into account when he started out.

---

Here's the WH readout of the call

The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace. These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East.

.....

The two leaders agreed that a future with an improved bilateral relationship between the United States and Russia has brobdingnagian upside. This includes enormous economic deals and geopolitical stability when peace has been achieved.

https://x.com/PressSec/status/1902049487457071248

The emphasis on deals is IMHO not encouraging. Russia has very little to offer to the US in terms of trade. Talking that up in the readout seems to indicate Trump wants a deal no matter what. 

Trump publicly accepting Putin's version of Ukrainian troops desperately encircled in Kursk, as BC's post pointed out, is also a bad sign.

Not good for Ukraine.

The Kremlin’s readout of the Trump-Putin call says that a 30-day ceasefire must require Ukraine to stop the mobilization into its armed forces, its rearmament, and will require an end to foreign military assistance and intelligence cooperation. Basically a surrender.

https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1902060395407532536

Oh, and also the US and Russia are going to play some hockey matches on Putin's suggestion

US President Donald Trump supported an idea proposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin to organize US-Russia hockey matches, the Kremlin said Tuesday, following a call between the two leaders.

“Donald Trump supported Vladimir Putin’s idea to organize hockey matches in the USA and Russia between Russian and American players playing in the NHL and KHL,” the Kremlin said in a readout.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/t...index.html

Once again, if you make a deal with Putin's Russia and expect it to be adhered to, I have a few nice bridges to sell you cheap!

---

https://www.wsj.com/world/all-robot-assa..._permalink

Interesting article about a completely drone based assault on a Russian bunker including aerial and ground-based drones.

The December attack involved about 50 unmanned aerial vehicles and destroyed a Russian position north of the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, according to the force that conducted the operation, Ukraine’s 13th National Guard Brigade Khartiya. The Wall Street Journal viewed video footage of the assault.

The attack served as a proof of concept. Though it had its problems, other Ukrainian units are now planning similar missions.

BC

Thanks, BC
The grand view of drones are that they are not the be all and end all of future conflicts.  But we always have to remember that when you fight a war you fight the enemy and that enemies abilities with those that you have.  If you can make low cost drones in the  thousands and use them to replace your infantry when needed and it works, then that is all that is important.  the Woulda, Shoulda, and Coulda don't count in real combat, only what works counts.

[GK3]

Putin and Trump had a 2 hour call. Seems Putin is rejecting a ceasefire.

Thanks for the multiple updates in this post. I am still hoping Putin will overplay his hand. It may be hard to predict when or if the US will conclude trying to broker a cease-fire is not going to work. I hope Putin reads it wrong and the backlash is "massive".

I just do not think that Ukraine will agree to someone else's negotiated "peace" unless Russia is on the verge of destroying the entire country.  As of now, Russia has hardly done what Putin thought they would 3 years ago.  More of their oil and gas infrastructure keeps getting hammered. 
It appears that Ukraine's ability to take out a good number of S400's has created problems where Russia has to keep moving what they have around to defend probable targets, then only to get hit where the just left.  A perfect situation for Ukraine's reported "in house" cruise missiles. 
I think if Ukraine had the same assets as Russia, the war would be over and Russia would not be the winner.
If Western Europe steps up and helps fill in for stuff we are no longer sending it will help a lot.  The result of all that has happened up to now has made Western Europe far more cognizant of the need for more arms and bigger armies.  I do not think Putin took this possibility into account when he started out.

---

Here's the WH readout of the call

The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace. These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East.

.....

The two leaders agreed that a future with an improved bilateral relationship between the United States and Russia has brobdingnagian upside. This includes enormous economic deals and geopolitical stability when peace has been achieved.

https://x.com/PressSec/status/1902049487457071248

The emphasis on deals is IMHO not encouraging. Russia has very little to offer to the US in terms of trade. Talking that up in the readout seems to indicate Trump wants a deal no matter what. 

Trump publicly accepting Putin's version of Ukrainian troops desperately encircled in Kursk, as BC's post pointed out, is also a bad sign.

Not good for Ukraine.

The Kremlin’s readout of the Trump-Putin call says that a 30-day ceasefire must require Ukraine to stop the mobilization into its armed forces, its rearmament, and will require an end to foreign military assistance and intelligence cooperation. Basically a surrender.

https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1902060395407532536

Oh, and also the US and Russia are going to play some hockey matches on Putin's suggestion

US President Donald Trump supported an idea proposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin to organize US-Russia hockey matches, the Kremlin said Tuesday, following a call between the two leaders.

“Donald Trump supported Vladimir Putin’s idea to organize hockey matches in the USA and Russia between Russian and American players playing in the NHL and KHL,” the Kremlin said in a readout.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/t...index.html

Once again, if you make a deal with Putin's Russia and expect it to be adhered to, I have a few nice bridges to sell you cheap!

---

https://www.wsj.com/world/all-robot-assa..._permalink

Interesting article about a completely drone based assault on a Russian bunker including aerial and ground-based drones.

The December attack involved about 50 unmanned aerial vehicles and destroyed a Russian position north of the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, according to the force that conducted the operation, Ukraine’s 13th National Guard Brigade Khartiya. The Wall Street Journal viewed video footage of the assault.

The attack served as a proof of concept. Though it had its problems, other Ukrainian units are now planning similar missions.

BC

Thanks, BC
The grand view of drones are that they are not the be all and end all of future conflicts.  But we always have to remember that when you fight a war you fight the enemy and that enemies abilities with those that you have.  If you can make low cost drones in the  thousands and use them to replace your infantry when needed and it works, then that is all that is important.  the Woulda, Shoulda, and Coulda don't count in real combat, only what works counts.

[BostonCard]

Yup, Ukraine’s issue is that it is short on manpower.  Drones can alleviate that shortage (though they can’t completely eliminate it, since you need drone operators, at least until the drones go fully autonomous).

BC

[BostonCard]

Yup, Ukraine’s issue is that it is short on manpower.  Drones can alleviate that shortage (though they can’t completely eliminate it, since you need drone operators, at least until the drones go fully autonomous).

BC

[Goose]

Putin and Trump had a 2 hour call. Seems Putin is rejecting a ceasefire.

Thanks for the multiple updates in this post. I am still hoping Putin will overplay his hand. It may be hard to predict when or if the US will conclude trying to broker a cease-fire is not going to work. I hope Putin reads it wrong and the backlash is "massive".

I just do not think that Ukraine will agree to someone else's negotiated "peace" unless Russia is on the verge of destroying the entire country.  As of now, Russia has hardly done what Putin thought they would 3 years ago.  More of their oil and gas infrastructure keeps getting hammered. 
It appears that Ukraine's ability to take out a good number of S400's has created problems where Russia has to keep moving what they have around to defend probable targets, then only to get hit where the just left.  A perfect situation for Ukraine's reported "in house" cruise missiles.

IMO it is more of a limitation of any SAM based defense against low-flying cruise missiles. The radar horizon limits the detection range (and therefore the engagement time) to just a few seconds. Long range SAMs do you no good because you can't detect the targets until the last moment. The necessary equipment to defeat low-flying cruise missiles is 1) an AWACS that has a very long radar horizon looking down on the cruise missiles and 2) fighters that the AWACS can vector to the targets. The US/coalition  and Israel have demonstrated this truth several times That works. SAMs alone don't. Russia in theory has the assets to do it as well. They aren't. As long as they don't, Ukraine can have success.

 
I think if Ukraine had the same assets as Russia, the war would be over and Russia would not be the winner.

Definitely agree.

If Western Europe steps up and helps fill in for stuff we are no longer sending it will help a lot.

True, but in many cases they just don't have the stuff. In particular, Patriot missiles, HIMARS rockets, ATACMS, SDBs, etc. There are sometimes limited quantities of equivalent items available but the European countries are somewhat reluctant to draw down their already limited stocks. I am sure they will do their best, but they can't fill the gap. They do have things like Storm Shadow and IRIS/T that will help, but how many they have is questionable.

Even more importantly, the US provides Ukraine with updated near real time intelligence feeds. They also get updated EORBAT from us that allows them to plan long range drone missions. The Europeans can't provide that kind of support. Lots of the capability they do have involves US assets in the process. The loss of situational awareness will be very problematic for Ukraine. Even more importantly, the loss of Starlink access will definitely mess up Ukrainian C3 capability. Starlink can be replaced, but not immediately.

[Goose]

Putin and Trump had a 2 hour call. Seems Putin is rejecting a ceasefire.

Thanks for the multiple updates in this post. I am still hoping Putin will overplay his hand. It may be hard to predict when or if the US will conclude trying to broker a cease-fire is not going to work. I hope Putin reads it wrong and the backlash is "massive".

I just do not think that Ukraine will agree to someone else's negotiated "peace" unless Russia is on the verge of destroying the entire country.  As of now, Russia has hardly done what Putin thought they would 3 years ago.  More of their oil and gas infrastructure keeps getting hammered. 
It appears that Ukraine's ability to take out a good number of S400's has created problems where Russia has to keep moving what they have around to defend probable targets, then only to get hit where the just left.  A perfect situation for Ukraine's reported "in house" cruise missiles.

IMO it is more of a limitation of any SAM based defense against low-flying cruise missiles. The radar horizon limits the detection range (and therefore the engagement time) to just a few seconds. Long range SAMs do you no good because you can't detect the targets until the last moment. The necessary equipment to defeat low-flying cruise missiles is 1) an AWACS that has a very long radar horizon looking down on the cruise missiles and 2) fighters that the AWACS can vector to the targets. The US/coalition  and Israel have demonstrated this truth several times That works. SAMs alone don't. Russia in theory has the assets to do it as well. They aren't. As long as they don't, Ukraine can have success.

 
I think if Ukraine had the same assets as Russia, the war would be over and Russia would not be the winner.

Definitely agree.

If Western Europe steps up and helps fill in for stuff we are no longer sending it will help a lot.

True, but in many cases they just don't have the stuff. In particular, Patriot missiles, HIMARS rockets, ATACMS, SDBs, etc. There are sometimes limited quantities of equivalent items available but the European countries are somewhat reluctant to draw down their already limited stocks. I am sure they will do their best, but they can't fill the gap. They do have things like Storm Shadow and IRIS/T that will help, but how many they have is questionable.

Even more importantly, the US provides Ukraine with updated near real time intelligence feeds. They also get updated EORBAT from us that allows them to plan long range drone missions. The Europeans can't provide that kind of support. Lots of the capability they do have involves US assets in the process. The loss of situational awareness will be very problematic for Ukraine. Even more importantly, the loss of Starlink access will definitely mess up Ukrainian C3 capability. Starlink can be replaced, but not immediately.

[dabigv13]

A very striking image, FPV drone cables tangled on trees at the front

https://x.com/prestonstew_/status/1902381162422546462

[dabigv13]

A very striking image, FPV drone cables tangled on trees at the front

https://x.com/prestonstew_/status/1902381162422546462

[M T]

Here's the WH readout of the call

The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace. These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East.

I see that as a tacit acknowledgement that Ukraine is hurting Putin (not Russia, but Putin himself) more by Ukraine's attacks on the Russian energy infrastructure that Putin thinks he is doing by hitting Ukraine's energy infrastructure.  The far-away war is not so in-the-face of the Russian people and oligarchs, but when major refineries are being hit, Putin is probably feeling some concern about his support.  

"Let's have a ceasefire only where they are hurting me more than I'm hurting them."  Next, Putin will suggest that the ceasefire be extended to drones but not ballistic missiles.

2 of the 4 most extensive spy infrastructures are Russia and Israel.  Just ask Hillary.

[M T]

Here's the WH readout of the call

The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace. These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East.

I see that as a tacit acknowledgement that Ukraine is hurting Putin (not Russia, but Putin himself) more by Ukraine's attacks on the Russian energy infrastructure that Putin thinks he is doing by hitting Ukraine's energy infrastructure.  The far-away war is not so in-the-face of the Russian people and oligarchs, but when major refineries are being hit, Putin is probably feeling some concern about his support.  

"Let's have a ceasefire only where they are hurting me more than I'm hurting them."  Next, Putin will suggest that the ceasefire be extended to drones but not ballistic missiles.

2 of the 4 most extensive spy infrastructures are Russia and Israel.  Just ask Hillary.

[newguy]

Here's the WH readout of the call

      The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace. These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East.

I see that as a tacit acknowledgement that Ukraine is hurting Putin (not Russia, but Putin himself) more by Ukraine's attacks on the Russian energy infrastructure that Putin thinks he is doing by hitting Ukraine's energy infrastructure.  The far-away war is not so in-the-face of the Russian people and oligarchs, but when major refineries are being hit, Putin is probably feeling some concern about his support.  

"Let's have a ceasefire only where they are hurting me more than I'm hurting them."  Next, Putin will suggest that the ceasefire be extended to drones but not ballistic missiles.

2 of the 4 most extensive spy infrastructures are Russia and Israel.  Just ask Hillary.

agree 100%.

[newguy]

Here's the WH readout of the call

      The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace. These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East.

I see that as a tacit acknowledgement that Ukraine is hurting Putin (not Russia, but Putin himself) more by Ukraine's attacks on the Russian energy infrastructure that Putin thinks he is doing by hitting Ukraine's energy infrastructure.  The far-away war is not so in-the-face of the Russian people and oligarchs, but when major refineries are being hit, Putin is probably feeling some concern about his support.  

"Let's have a ceasefire only where they are hurting me more than I'm hurting them."  Next, Putin will suggest that the ceasefire be extended to drones but not ballistic missiles.

2 of the 4 most extensive spy infrastructures are Russia and Israel.  Just ask Hillary.

agree 100%.

[Canalejas]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/18/us/po...ldren.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-...ar-crimes/

[Canalejas]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/18/us/po...ldren.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-...ar-crimes/

[dabigv13]

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1902575582501543943

Ukraine hit Engels air force base with a large drone attack. Big booms, lots of secondary explosions. The base is one of the biggest Russian bomber bases.

[dabigv13]

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1902575582501543943

Ukraine hit Engels air force base with a large drone attack. Big booms, lots of secondary explosions. The base is one of the biggest Russian bomber bases.

[GK3]

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1902575582501543943

Ukraine hit Engels air force base with a large drone attack. Big booms, lots of secondary explosions. The base is one of the biggest Russian bomber bases.

Failure has never been an option for any Russian leader, at any level. I think one can say with certainty that Putin never thought things would come to this.  Start a war with a much smaller country that gave you Crimea back and now their weapons are striking Russian bases and infrastructure?  If he doesn't have some major success soon, he should stay away from any building larger than one story.  He is the boss, but bosses do not live forever if they fail.

[GK3]

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1902575582501543943

Ukraine hit Engels air force base with a large drone attack. Big booms, lots of secondary explosions. The base is one of the biggest Russian bomber bases.

Failure has never been an option for any Russian leader, at any level. I think one can say with certainty that Putin never thought things would come to this.  Start a war with a much smaller country that gave you Crimea back and now their weapons are striking Russian bases and infrastructure?  If he doesn't have some major success soon, he should stay away from any building larger than one story.  He is the boss, but bosses do not live forever if they fail.

[Goose]

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1902575582501543943

Ukraine hit Engels air force base with a large drone attack. Big booms, lots of secondary explosions. The base is one of the biggest Russian bomber bases.

Failure has never been an option for any Russian leader, at any level. I think one can say with certainty that Putin never thought things would come to this.  Start a war with a much smaller country that gave you Crimea back and now their weapons are striking Russian bases and infrastructure?  If he doesn't have some major success soon, he should stay away from any building larger than one story.  He is the boss, but bosses do not live forever if they fail.

If Putin reaches the point he is perceived as weak, he can fall out of underground parking garage windows. Unfortunately IMO it is improbable that will happen anytime real soon. Putin is riding high at home for having kept the US president waiting for half an hour on the phone. Right now he is calling the tune in negotiations and the US is apparently dancing to it. Appearances are more important than substance.
 
I do think that if Putin hasn't achieved a cease-fire on his terms (which would doom Ukraine to eventual Russian occupation) by June or so the Russian public may actually notice. Slow progress may also lead to Putin saying or doing something that will de-rail negotiations. Then things may change. The concept of victory being just around the corner evaporating can lead to despair and anger about a never-ending war very quickly.
 
Ukraine's strikes on Russian fuel export facilities can play a very large role in generating that anger. Strikes on military targets are obviously very useful to Ukraine staying in the war and must continue. Their effects are unfortunately not obvious to the average Russian and in a totally controlled media may not even be reported. However, if prices are going up and one can't buy fuel, even if only temporarily, that can't be hidden.

[Goose]

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1902575582501543943

Ukraine hit Engels air force base with a large drone attack. Big booms, lots of secondary explosions. The base is one of the biggest Russian bomber bases.

Failure has never been an option for any Russian leader, at any level. I think one can say with certainty that Putin never thought things would come to this.  Start a war with a much smaller country that gave you Crimea back and now their weapons are striking Russian bases and infrastructure?  If he doesn't have some major success soon, he should stay away from any building larger than one story.  He is the boss, but bosses do not live forever if they fail.

If Putin reaches the point he is perceived as weak, he can fall out of underground parking garage windows. Unfortunately IMO it is improbable that will happen anytime real soon. Putin is riding high at home for having kept the US president waiting for half an hour on the phone. Right now he is calling the tune in negotiations and the US is apparently dancing to it. Appearances are more important than substance.
 
I do think that if Putin hasn't achieved a cease-fire on his terms (which would doom Ukraine to eventual Russian occupation) by June or so the Russian public may actually notice. Slow progress may also lead to Putin saying or doing something that will de-rail negotiations. Then things may change. The concept of victory being just around the corner evaporating can lead to despair and anger about a never-ending war very quickly.
 
Ukraine's strikes on Russian fuel export facilities can play a very large role in generating that anger. Strikes on military targets are obviously very useful to Ukraine staying in the war and must continue. Their effects are unfortunately not obvious to the average Russian and in a totally controlled media may not even be reported. However, if prices are going up and one can't buy fuel, even if only temporarily, that can't be hidden.

[Goose]

https://united24media.com/latest-news/sw...raine-6950

I am not entirely sure what this article means in terms of actually when the delivery will occur. It sounds like the Ukrainian F-16s are being modified/upgraded to support a data link to/from the ASC-890. If this is the case, the F-16s will become absolutely deadly to any low to mid tier cruise missiles/drones. It could also empower F-16 attacks against Russian glide bomb launching aircraft in some cases. Hopefully the delivery is very "soon".
 
Oh what could have been.

[Goose]

https://united24media.com/latest-news/sw...raine-6950

I am not entirely sure what this article means in terms of actually when the delivery will occur. It sounds like the Ukrainian F-16s are being modified/upgraded to support a data link to/from the ASC-890. If this is the case, the F-16s will become absolutely deadly to any low to mid tier cruise missiles/drones. It could also empower F-16 attacks against Russian glide bomb launching aircraft in some cases. Hopefully the delivery is very "soon".
 
Oh what could have been.