09-12-2026, 07:57 PM
I'm hoping the nickname game is strong for this one.
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2026 Stanford at Duke Predictions Thread
09-13-2026, 11:50 AM
I don't like the long road trip, but it's a 4pm kickoff, not 1pm. On CW Network.
Why we can win: Us, RED
* Davis Warren is better than we thought, and has good receivers
* Off a two week healing for us.
* Micah Ford needs a breakout game.
* Get them down early; Stack the Box
[We need Kaminski the Wolf-man]
Them: BLUE
* Very narrow offense: Sheppard runs the rock and our Run Defense is surprisingly good.
There is only ONE GUY to stop.
Eget (injury?) and passing game is weak.
Tough for them if we jump ahead.
We get two INTs. Big.
* Illi should have beaten them.
* Duke has 19 penalties in two games; self harm
Note: Duke scheduled us for Alumni Homecoming -- let's relish ruining that!
Why we can win: Us, RED
* Davis Warren is better than we thought, and has good receivers
* Off a two week healing for us.
* Micah Ford needs a breakout game.
* Get them down early; Stack the Box
[We need Kaminski the Wolf-man]
Them: BLUE
* Very narrow offense: Sheppard runs the rock and our Run Defense is surprisingly good.
There is only ONE GUY to stop.
Eget (injury?) and passing game is weak.
Tough for them if we jump ahead.
We get two INTs. Big.
* Illi should have beaten them.
* Duke has 19 penalties in two games; self harm
Note: Duke scheduled us for Alumni Homecoming -- let's relish ruining that!
I don't like the long road trip, but it's a 4pm kickoff, not 1pm. On CW Network.
Why we can win: Us, RED
* Davis Warren is better than we thought, and has good receivers
* Off a two week healing for us.
* Micah Ford needs a breakout game.
* Get them down early; Stack the Box
[We need Kaminski the Wolf-man]
Them: BLUE
* Very narrow offense: Sheppard runs the rock and our Run Defense is surprisingly good.
There is only ONE GUY to stop.
Eget (injury?) and passing game is weak.
Tough for them if we jump ahead.
We get two INTs. Big.
* Illi should have beaten them.
* Duke has 19 penalties in two games; self harm
Note: Duke scheduled us for Alumni Homecoming -- let's relish ruining that!
Why we can win: Us, RED
* Davis Warren is better than we thought, and has good receivers
* Off a two week healing for us.
* Micah Ford needs a breakout game.
* Get them down early; Stack the Box
[We need Kaminski the Wolf-man]
Them: BLUE
* Very narrow offense: Sheppard runs the rock and our Run Defense is surprisingly good.
There is only ONE GUY to stop.
Eget (injury?) and passing game is weak.
Tough for them if we jump ahead.
We get two INTs. Big.
* Illi should have beaten them.
* Duke has 19 penalties in two games; self harm
Note: Duke scheduled us for Alumni Homecoming -- let's relish ruining that!
09-13-2026, 11:58 AM
Just thinking back to the 2011 and 2012 seasons when we beat Duke by 30 and 37 points...
Audaces fortuna iuvat
09-13-2026, 01:08 PM
(09-13-2026, 11:50 AM)ADPinWDC Wrote: Note: Duke scheduled us for Alumni Homecoming -- let's relish ruining that!
we were pretty much their only choice in Sept or Oct for homecoming, their other home games in Sept and Oct
Sept 5 vs Tulane (too early for homecoming and would compete with Labor Day weekend which probably would not help homecoming attendance))
Sept 19 vs us
Sept 26 vs William & Mary (well they could have picked that game like we did Elon)
Oct 17 vs UNC (selling that game out anyway so why have it be homecoming)
Oct 31 vs BC (do they want to do homecoming on Halloween weekend?)
their other home game is Nov 20 vs Clemson, but that's a Friday night game so not likely for homecoming
so our game is the most logical one for them to have as homecoming
Eric
"the older we get the better we were"
(09-13-2026, 11:50 AM)ADPinWDC Wrote: Note: Duke scheduled us for Alumni Homecoming -- let's relish ruining that!
we were pretty much their only choice in Sept or Oct for homecoming, their other home games in Sept and Oct
Sept 5 vs Tulane (too early for homecoming and would compete with Labor Day weekend which probably would not help homecoming attendance))
Sept 19 vs us
Sept 26 vs William & Mary (well they could have picked that game like we did Elon)
Oct 17 vs UNC (selling that game out anyway so why have it be homecoming)
Oct 31 vs BC (do they want to do homecoming on Halloween weekend?)
their other home game is Nov 20 vs Clemson, but that's a Friday night game so not likely for homecoming
so our game is the most logical one for them to have as homecoming
Eric
"the older we get the better we were"
09-13-2026, 10:04 PM
Maybe I'm drinking the Kool-Aid but I love this matchup for us.
Our strength has been stopping the run. We even did a decent job against Mark Fletcher and Miami. His 100+ yards were inflated by Tooney and Mensah absolutely torching us. So I think overall our defense matches well here.
On offense, Davis Warren has really settled in and been a stud. 2 weeks for the team to get healthy and I think we'll look good and strong on offense with Irvin and Ford controlling the run game and T.O.P.
Also Eget has been shaky this year and got shaken up in the last game.
It's the type of game that Tavita and Co want to play and will be salivating for.
I think Stanford takes care of business here 27-20 and comes back to Palo Alto 2-1 ready to play a shaky Georgia Tech ball club.
Our strength has been stopping the run. We even did a decent job against Mark Fletcher and Miami. His 100+ yards were inflated by Tooney and Mensah absolutely torching us. So I think overall our defense matches well here.
On offense, Davis Warren has really settled in and been a stud. 2 weeks for the team to get healthy and I think we'll look good and strong on offense with Irvin and Ford controlling the run game and T.O.P.
Also Eget has been shaky this year and got shaken up in the last game.
It's the type of game that Tavita and Co want to play and will be salivating for.
I think Stanford takes care of business here 27-20 and comes back to Palo Alto 2-1 ready to play a shaky Georgia Tech ball club.
Maybe I'm drinking the Kool-Aid but I love this matchup for us.
Our strength has been stopping the run. We even did a decent job against Mark Fletcher and Miami. His 100+ yards were inflated by Tooney and Mensah absolutely torching us. So I think overall our defense matches well here.
On offense, Davis Warren has really settled in and been a stud. 2 weeks for the team to get healthy and I think we'll look good and strong on offense with Irvin and Ford controlling the run game and T.O.P.
Also Eget has been shaky this year and got shaken up in the last game.
It's the type of game that Tavita and Co want to play and will be salivating for.
I think Stanford takes care of business here 27-20 and comes back to Palo Alto 2-1 ready to play a shaky Georgia Tech ball club.
Our strength has been stopping the run. We even did a decent job against Mark Fletcher and Miami. His 100+ yards were inflated by Tooney and Mensah absolutely torching us. So I think overall our defense matches well here.
On offense, Davis Warren has really settled in and been a stud. 2 weeks for the team to get healthy and I think we'll look good and strong on offense with Irvin and Ford controlling the run game and T.O.P.
Also Eget has been shaky this year and got shaken up in the last game.
It's the type of game that Tavita and Co want to play and will be salivating for.
I think Stanford takes care of business here 27-20 and comes back to Palo Alto 2-1 ready to play a shaky Georgia Tech ball club.
09-14-2026, 12:56 PM
https://x.com/CFBNumbers/status/2099519159772061835
For advanced stats folks, Stanford has an average offense and the defense isn't very good. Duke has a significant better defense (a bit above average), but a not great offense. Weird because they looked pretty good last week on offense against a favored Illinois team (and Illinois had a slightly better success rate).
For advanced stats folks, Stanford has an average offense and the defense isn't very good. Duke has a significant better defense (a bit above average), but a not great offense. Weird because they looked pretty good last week on offense against a favored Illinois team (and Illinois had a slightly better success rate).
https://x.com/CFBNumbers/status/2099519159772061835
For advanced stats folks, Stanford has an average offense and the defense isn't very good. Duke has a significant better defense (a bit above average), but a not great offense. Weird because they looked pretty good last week on offense against a favored Illinois team (and Illinois had a slightly better success rate).
For advanced stats folks, Stanford has an average offense and the defense isn't very good. Duke has a significant better defense (a bit above average), but a not great offense. Weird because they looked pretty good last week on offense against a favored Illinois team (and Illinois had a slightly better success rate).
09-14-2026, 02:40 PM
(09-14-2026, 12:56 PM)rogpodge Wrote: https://x.com/CFBNumbers/status/2099519159772061835
For advanced stats folks, Stanford has an average offense and the defense isn't very good. Duke has a significant better defense (a bit above average), but a not great offense. Weird because they looked pretty good last week on offense against a favored Illinois team (and Illinois had a slightly better success rate).
Appreciate the link. Some observations, but first a quote: "Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics".
I assume their data is based on 2026 games so far and nothing else? If so, then yes our D doesn't look good in points per play, because in one out of our 2 games, one of the top teams in the country with one of the best QB to WR combos, torched us for a lot of passing yards and pts.
With big passing plays based drives, you get relatively a lot of points per play because it's less plays than if you march down the field on 5 to 10 yard runs per play and then score. So the upside for us was that we had pretty good run prevention (not great, but I'll bet better than average over Miami's course of their season), so when they had more success with the pass, that's what they went with. In Miami's second game they ran wild as well as passed wild, unstoppable in both.
Another quote comes to mind: "Past performance is not indicative of future results"
I think our D going forward the next few games will look better than the statistical past performance that includes Miami, with (hopefully) Miami becoming more of an outlier.
Further to the point of this quote, what about injury reports?
If different guys are playing, that can jumble up any statistical predictions.
In this regard, what about Duke's QB Eget, is he hurt or OK to play, if OK to play, is he mobile or limited to standing in the pocket and maybe taking a sack?
What about our multiple injured OLine starters, are any of them heading out of the infirmary and back onto the field? And Benji Blackburn too?
So I await an injury report to sway some expectations away from prior stats and more towards hoped-for results.
(09-14-2026, 12:56 PM)rogpodge Wrote: https://x.com/CFBNumbers/status/2099519159772061835
For advanced stats folks, Stanford has an average offense and the defense isn't very good. Duke has a significant better defense (a bit above average), but a not great offense. Weird because they looked pretty good last week on offense against a favored Illinois team (and Illinois had a slightly better success rate).
Appreciate the link. Some observations, but first a quote: "Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics".
I assume their data is based on 2026 games so far and nothing else? If so, then yes our D doesn't look good in points per play, because in one out of our 2 games, one of the top teams in the country with one of the best QB to WR combos, torched us for a lot of passing yards and pts.
With big passing plays based drives, you get relatively a lot of points per play because it's less plays than if you march down the field on 5 to 10 yard runs per play and then score. So the upside for us was that we had pretty good run prevention (not great, but I'll bet better than average over Miami's course of their season), so when they had more success with the pass, that's what they went with. In Miami's second game they ran wild as well as passed wild, unstoppable in both.
Another quote comes to mind: "Past performance is not indicative of future results"
I think our D going forward the next few games will look better than the statistical past performance that includes Miami, with (hopefully) Miami becoming more of an outlier.
Further to the point of this quote, what about injury reports?
If different guys are playing, that can jumble up any statistical predictions.
In this regard, what about Duke's QB Eget, is he hurt or OK to play, if OK to play, is he mobile or limited to standing in the pocket and maybe taking a sack?
What about our multiple injured OLine starters, are any of them heading out of the infirmary and back onto the field? And Benji Blackburn too?
So I await an injury report to sway some expectations away from prior stats and more towards hoped-for results.
09-17-2026, 09:46 PM
(09-14-2026, 02:40 PM)SkiBum80 Wrote:(09-14-2026, 12:56 PM)rogpodge Wrote: https://x.com/CFBNumbers/status/2099519159772061835
For advanced stats folks, Stanford has an average offense and the defense isn't very good. Duke has a significant better defense (a bit above average), but a not great offense. Weird because they looked pretty good last week on offense against a favored Illinois team (and Illinois had a slightly better success rate).
Appreciate the link. Some observations, but first a quote: "Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics".
I assume their data is based on 2026 games so far and nothing else? If so, then yes our D doesn't look good in points per play, because in one out of our 2 games, one of the top teams in the country with one of the best QB to WR combos, torched us for a lot of passing yards and pts.
With big passing plays based drives, you get relatively a lot of points per play because it's less plays than if you march down the field on 5 to 10 yard runs per play and then score. So the upside for us was that we had pretty good run prevention (not great, but I'll bet better than average over Miami's course of their season), so when they had more success with the pass, that's what they went with. In Miami's second game they ran wild as well as passed wild, unstoppable in both.
Another quote comes to mind: "Past performance is not indicative of future results"
I think our D going forward the next few games will look better than the statistical past performance that includes Miami, with (hopefully) Miami becoming more of an outlier.
Further to the point of this quote, what about injury reports?
If different guys are playing, that can jumble up any statistical predictions.
In this regard, what about Duke's QB Eget, is he hurt or OK to play, if OK to play, is he mobile or limited to standing in the pocket and maybe taking a sack?
What about our multiple injured OLine starters, are any of them heading out of the infirmary and back onto the field? And Benji Blackburn too?
So I await an injury report to sway some expectations away from prior stats and more towards hoped-for results.
Sounds like QB Eget plays, and he is good.
(09-14-2026, 02:40 PM)SkiBum80 Wrote:(09-14-2026, 12:56 PM)rogpodge Wrote: https://x.com/CFBNumbers/status/2099519159772061835
For advanced stats folks, Stanford has an average offense and the defense isn't very good. Duke has a significant better defense (a bit above average), but a not great offense. Weird because they looked pretty good last week on offense against a favored Illinois team (and Illinois had a slightly better success rate).
Appreciate the link. Some observations, but first a quote: "Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics".
I assume their data is based on 2026 games so far and nothing else? If so, then yes our D doesn't look good in points per play, because in one out of our 2 games, one of the top teams in the country with one of the best QB to WR combos, torched us for a lot of passing yards and pts.
With big passing plays based drives, you get relatively a lot of points per play because it's less plays than if you march down the field on 5 to 10 yard runs per play and then score. So the upside for us was that we had pretty good run prevention (not great, but I'll bet better than average over Miami's course of their season), so when they had more success with the pass, that's what they went with. In Miami's second game they ran wild as well as passed wild, unstoppable in both.
Another quote comes to mind: "Past performance is not indicative of future results"
I think our D going forward the next few games will look better than the statistical past performance that includes Miami, with (hopefully) Miami becoming more of an outlier.
Further to the point of this quote, what about injury reports?
If different guys are playing, that can jumble up any statistical predictions.
In this regard, what about Duke's QB Eget, is he hurt or OK to play, if OK to play, is he mobile or limited to standing in the pocket and maybe taking a sack?
What about our multiple injured OLine starters, are any of them heading out of the infirmary and back onto the field? And Benji Blackburn too?
So I await an injury report to sway some expectations away from prior stats and more towards hoped-for results.
Sounds like QB Eget plays, and he is good.
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