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RE: Stanford Oregon Game thread - d4cohn - 09-22-2018

(09-22-2018, 09:16 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:  
(09-22-2018, 08:49 PM)d4cohn Wrote:  
(09-22-2018, 08:44 PM)JPR36 Wrote:  
(09-22-2018, 08:42 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  And hey, hometown boy Alfieri making the of immense proportions play that made it all possible! Wow wow wow.

At the risk of hyperbole.
The most incredible comeback victory in Stanford history.

Nobody is going to convince me otherwise. We may have had more consequential wins, but we will never have a better moment than this.

How about the "greatest upset ever"? My phone was ringing off the hook that night. . . .

That was an amazing moment too, and certainly the first building block toward a moment like tonight. But we went 5-7 that year, and didn't make a bowl. Yes, there are 8 games to go, and a lot can happen between now and the end of the season, but this win has the chance to be the difference in NY6 implications, Pac-12 championship implications, and possibly, if things go exceptionally right, even more. 

Greatest upset ever was stunning in terms of the sheer improbability of a team of Stanford's caliber at that time contending with the mighty Trojans. But we were within 10 points in that game throughout.

Tonight, we were getting utterly annihilated on both lines of scrimmage, and it took a referee's call and an amazing play just to keep the game from going to 31-7. And the pylon call and the Alferi scoop and score were just the start of a series of ridiculous plays and moments that had to go exactly right for Stanford to pull this off.

By my count, we needed:

1) A 3rd Down Sack to knock Oregon out of FG range on first drive 2nd half
2) Pylon Call
3) Botched snap on next play 1st and Goal from 1
4) Alferi scoop and score on 3rd and Goal
5) Bryce call upheld on TD run
6) Cristobal deciding not to take knees after Herbert keeper to pick up first down, and leave Stanford with at most 10-15 seconds to mount a last gasp desperation drive
7) Verdell fumbling after not being able to go to the ground after picking up the 1st down (or at least coming very close)
8) Parkinson converting a 3rd and 10 from our own 40
9) Toner making a ice-water kick to send to overtime (after Oregon gifted a nice five yards with a substitution penalty)

That is just to get to overtime. Then, in OT:

10) Parkinson makes the TD catch where he tips the ball to himself, with 5 defenders all around him.
11) Three consecutive amazing pass breakups by Paulson Adebo on an absolute island (with possibly the benefit of the refs swallowing their whistles on a possible PI on first down)
12) Tipped pass by Holder, leading to final Murphy INT to seal the win

2 additional stats detailing the sheer improbability of tonight: Oregon had two separate moments in the game with a 99% probability (right before scoop and score, and right before Verdell fumble) to win, and lost. Second, Herbert went 25-for-27 in regulation with 300+ yards passing, and lost.

RE: Stanford Oregon Game thread - BostonCard - 09-22-2018

(09-22-2018, 11:01 PM)d4cohn Wrote:  Tonight, we were getting utterly annihilated on both lines of scrimmage, and it took a referee's call and an amazing play just to keep the game from going to 31-7. And the pylon call and the Alferi scoop and score were just the start of a series of ridiculous plays and moments that had to go exactly right for Stanford to pull this off.

By my count, we needed:

1) A 3rd Down Sack to knock Oregon out of FG range on first drive 2nd half
2) Pylon Call
3) Botched snap on next play 1st and Goal from 1
4) Alferi scoop and score on 3rd and Goal
5) Bryce call upheld on TD run
6) Cristobal deciding not to take knees after Herbert keeper to pick up first down, and leave Stanford with at most 10-15 seconds to mount a last gasp desperation drive
7) Verdell fumbling after not being able to go to the ground after picking up the 1st down (or at least coming very close)
8) Parkinson converting a 3rd and 10 from our own 40
9) Toner making a ice-water kick to send to overtime (after Oregon gifted a nice five yards with a substitution penalty)

That is just to get to overtime. Then, in OT:

10) Parkinson makes the TD catch where he tips the ball to himself, with 5 defenders all around him.
11) Three consecutive amazing pass breakups by Paulson Adebo on an absolute island (with possibly the benefit of the refs swallowing their whistles on a possible PI on first down)
12) Tipped pass by Holder, leading to final Murphy INT to seal the win

2 additional stats detailing the sheer improbability of tonight: Oregon had two separate moments in the game with a 99% probability (right before scoop and score, and right before Verdell fumble) to win, and lost. Second, Herbert went 25-for-27 in regulation with 300+ yards passing, and lost.

ESPN counts eight key plays...

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24766519/stanford-cardinal-epic-comeback-oregon-ducks

BC

RE: Stanford Oregon Game thread - CardinalSagehen - 09-22-2018

Also consider this:

A walk-on, as of a couple weeks ago, just helped save the day.  Look closely at the 30-second mark as #19 Noah Williams strips the ball. So improbable!

https://es.pn/2NBa849

RE: Stanford Oregon Game thread - yvonne - 09-23-2018

(09-22-2018, 10:13 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  [tweet]https://twitter.com/TankWilliams13/status/1035541976484012033[/tweet]

BC

I watched that, so now I don't have to ever do it again.

RE: Stanford Oregon Game thread - Langdude - 09-23-2018

(09-22-2018, 11:40 PM)CardinalSagehen Wrote:  Also consider this:

A walk-on, as of a couple weeks ago, just helped save the day.  Look closely at the 30-second mark as #19 Noah Williams strips the ball. So improbable!

https://es.pn/2NBa849

Yes. Already posted this above. So cool for him.

-m.

RE: Stanford Oregon Game thread - martyup - 09-23-2018

Oh, and we beat the spread . . . again.

RE: Stanford Oregon Game thread - SF_Cardinal_Fan - 09-23-2018

Stanford TE pass catching was sensational.

RE: Stanford Oregon Game thread - CowboyIndian - 09-23-2018

(09-22-2018, 11:01 PM)d4cohn Wrote:  By my count, we needed:

1) A 3rd Down Sack to knock Oregon out of FG range on first drive 2nd half
2) Pylon Call
3) Botched snap on next play 1st and Goal from 1
4) Alferi scoop and score on 3rd and Goal
5) Bryce call upheld on TD run
6) Cristobal deciding not to take knees after Herbert keeper to pick up first down, and leave Stanford with at most 10-15 seconds to mount a last gasp desperation drive
7) Verdell fumbling after not being able to go to the ground after picking up the 1st down (or at least coming very close)
8) Parkinson converting a 3rd and 10 from our own 40
9) Toner making a ice-water kick to send to overtime (after Oregon gifted a nice five yards with a substitution penalty)

That is just to get to overtime. Then, in OT:

10) Parkinson makes the TD catch where he tips the ball to himself, with 5 defenders all around him.
11) Three consecutive amazing pass breakups by Paulson Adebo on an absolute island (with possibly the benefit of the refs swallowing their whistles on a possible PI on first down)
12) Tipped pass by Holder, leading to final Murphy INT to seal the win

Team of Destiny?

RE: Stanford Oregon Game thread - French Rage - 09-23-2018

Question on the whole pylon thing.  When some is going into the endzone along the sideline and the hold the ball out so it hits the pylon, that's enough to say it broke the plane.  So for those purposes it's in-bounds right?  But yeah last night's was definitely out of bounds, and he led with the foot and not the ball, so the foot was out before the ball crossed and all.  For some reason I always thought the pylon is in-bounds, but on the replays it is clearly out.

RE: Stanford Oregon Game thread - BostonCard - 09-23-2018

(09-23-2018, 11:02 AM)French Rage Wrote:  Question on the whole pylon thing.  When some is going into the endzone along the sideline and the hold the ball out so it hits the pylon, that's enough to say it broke the plane.  So for those purposes it's in-bounds right?  But yeah last night's was definitely out of bounds, and he led with the foot and not the ball, so the foot was out before the ball crossed and all.  For some reason I always thought the pylon is in-bounds, but on the replays it is clearly out.

The answer is that the pylon is out of bounds past the goal line plane.  Thus, if the ball touches the pylon, it has crossed the plane and gone out of bounds, but is presumed to have crossed the plane first.  If the player touches the pylon, he has gone out of bounds, so it depends on whether the ball has crossed the plane before the player's body touches the pylon.  In the Oregon receiver's case, the ball was at the half yard line when the player's foot touched the pylon, so the ball is down within one yard.  On Love's play, his foot did not touch the pylon (nor did it touch the end zone; he stepped out of bounds in the end zone).  Had he touched the ground in the end zone in bounds, the plane would have extended out of bounds and it would definitely have been a touchdown.  But he didn't so, the question was whether the ball crossed the plane in bounds.  I don't think it did, but there wasn't a good angle to know for sure, so the call stood.

BC

RE: Stanford Oregon Game thread - French Rage - 09-23-2018

(09-23-2018, 11:08 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  
(09-23-2018, 11:02 AM)French Rage Wrote:  Question on the whole pylon thing.  When some is going into the endzone along the sideline and the hold the ball out so it hits the pylon, that's enough to say it broke the plane.  So for those purposes it's in-bounds right?  But yeah last night's was definitely out of bounds, and he led with the foot and not the ball, so the foot was out before the ball crossed and all.  For some reason I always thought the pylon is in-bounds, but on the replays it is clearly out.

The answer is that the pylon is out of bounds past the goal line plane.  Thus, if the ball touches the pylon, it has crossed the plane and gone out of bounds, but is presumed to have crossed the plane first.  If the player touches the pylon, he has gone out of bounds, so it depends on whether the ball has crossed the plane before the player's body touches the pylon.  In the Oregon receiver's case, the ball was at the half yard line when the player's foot touched the pylon, so the ball is down within one yard.  On Love's play, his foot did not touch the pylon (nor did it touch the end zone; he stepped out of bounds in the end zone).  Had he touched the ground in the end zone in bounds, the plane would have extended out of bounds and it would definitely have been a touchdown.  But he didn't so, the question was whether the ball crossed the plane in bounds.  I don't think it did, but there wasn't a good angle to know for sure, so the call stood.

BC

OK, that's what I figured.  I don't recall ever seeing a play like the Oregon play so I guess it's something I really never had to consider before.  Usually it's all about the ball hitting the pylon and not the player.

RE: Stanford Oregon Game thread - martyup - 09-23-2018

This guy was jumping around on the Oregon sidelines all night acting like a high school cheerleader.  Glad to see him losing.
[Image: GenerousSillyAnura-max-1mb.gif]
[Image: bdd17395de2b8028e145dc078d10f466.jpg]

RE: Stanford Oregon Game thread - French Rage - 09-23-2018

It's Oregon, they're required to employ a token hipster.

RE: Stanford Oregon Game thread - martyup - 09-23-2018

(09-23-2018, 07:08 PM)French Rage Wrote:  It's Oregon, they're required to employ a token hipster.

What is hip?  Tell me, tell me if you think you know.
So you became part of the new breed
Been smokin' only the best weed
Been hangin' out on the so-called hippest set
Being seen at all the right places
Being seen with just the right faces
You should be satisfied
Still it ain't quite right

Because you blew a big lead and got beat by Stanford!

RE: Stanford Oregon Game thread - CornFed - 09-23-2018

Strong contender for Stanford's MVP - Oregon's Jake Hanson (center).  

He contributed the key snap over Herbert's head that lead to Alfieri's scoop and score as well as several other horrible snaps.  Also committed at least 3 penalties, including a personal foul.  One could almost suspect he was on our payroll.

RE: Stanford Oregon Game thread - fullmetal - 09-23-2018

(09-23-2018, 07:06 PM)martyup Wrote:  This guy was jumping around on the Oregon sidelines all night acting like a high school cheerleader.  Glad to see him losing.

Aaron Feld, the Oregon strength coach.  Not clear that a strength coach has a lot to do on the sidelines other than be a cheerleader. Looks like a tool but is probably stronger than me, so I hope he's happy with his life choices.

Oh yeah, the screwed up snaps?  Revenge for the game where I think I remember Stanford players talking about Oregon defenders copying signals and shouting at the OL to mimic Hogan's signals.  Stanford had two botched snaps to Hogan on the same drive that killed Stanford on a key drive...can't remember which game that was, but I remember the sports bar where I saw that game.

RE: Stanford Oregon Game thread - ChicagoCard - 09-24-2018

Fullmetal you beat me to it. Yeah, that was the OU strength coach. Reminded me of the obnoxiously exuberant Alabama equivalent. And the game you're referring to was 2015 when there were three awful turnovers (by Stanford), and Harris and Holder were injured.
P.s. you mentioned Garvin, can you convince him to return here?

RE: Stanford Oregon Game thread - stupac2 - 09-24-2018

(09-23-2018, 09:57 PM)fullmetal Wrote:  
(09-23-2018, 07:06 PM)martyup Wrote:  This guy was jumping around on the Oregon sidelines all night acting like a high school cheerleader.  Glad to see him losing.

Aaron Feld, the Oregon strength coach.  Not clear that a strength coach has a lot to do on the sidelines other than be a cheerleader.  Looks like a tool but is probably stronger than me, so I hope he's happy with his life choices.

Oh yeah, the screwed up snaps?  Revenge for the game where I think I remember Stanford players talking about Oregon defenders copying signals and shouting at the OL to mimic Hogan's signals.  Stanford had two botched snaps to Hogan on the same drive that killed Stanford on a key drive...can't remember which game that was, but I remember the sports bar where I saw that game.

Man, you don't remember which year that was? That was 2015 and it 100% kept us out of the playoffs. IIRC there were 3 botched snaps and, despite those normally being ~75% recovery rate for the offense, we lost at least 2 of them and I think all 3. It was a bad, bad game.

RE: Stanford Oregon Game thread - shinsengumi - 09-24-2018

(09-22-2018, 08:06 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  
(09-22-2018, 08:00 PM)shinsengumi Wrote:  Feel like every time we've rolled out jumbo on 4th and 1 over the last couple of years, we've been stuffed. Probably not much the O-line can do in those tight quarters.

Remound and Gaffney could make it work - the others not as much.

We had four first downs in 6 rushing attempts on fourth down last year.  We were 5 of 9 in Gaffney's year, and 7 in 10 when Remound was taking the handoffs from McCaffrey.

BC

Hey BC. Thanks for providing this during the game.

I could've sworn that we've had a distinct lack of success in jumbo situations the last couple of years. But I didn't know where I could get the situational data from. This is the closest proxy I found thanks to RJ Abeytia's article on 247 (https://247sports.com/college/stanford/LongFormArticle/Ten-Takeaways-From-7-Stanfords-38-31-Win-Over-19-Oregon-122417330/#122417330_3)

Football Outsiders tracks a metric called Power Success Rate (percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown). Here's what the numbers look like for the last few years.  
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaaol2017

YearPrimary Short Yardage BackPSR %Rank
2014Wright/Sanders73.723
2015Wright/McCaffrey76.212
2016Scarlett/McCaffrey65.976
2017Scarlett/Love69.449


An excellent way to relive the game - Bruce Wang - 09-24-2018

An excellent way to relive the game is to read the counterpart threat for Oregon from the 2nd half.

https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2018/9/22/17891664/second-half-game-thread-oregon-ducks-24-stanford-cardinal-7