MBB : vs. North Carolina State, 4:00, ACCNetworkNU

MBB : vs. North Carolina State, 4:00, ACCNetworkNU - Printable Version

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RE: MBB : vs. North Carolina State, 4:00, ACCNetworkNU - fullmetal - 02-09-2025

ACC Digital Network has the condensed game posted (9 min 16 sec).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AY42V7TvWJo

RE: MBB : vs. North Carolina State, 4:00, ACCNetworkNU - Card10Fan - 02-09-2025

Attendance especially the weekend games have been much improved the last couple months. Winning helps everything. Hope Blakes can return for this next weeks road trip. The announcers for the Wake game said Blakes was expected back against NC State but obviously that didn’t happen. Hopefully it’s just precautionary.

RE: MBB : vs. North Carolina State, 4:00, ACCNetworkNU - needle - 02-09-2025

Stanford No. 85 in KenPom. I believe the team is the lowest-rated among all P4 teams relative to its record, meaning that all P4 teams with a worse KenPom rating also have worse winning percentages. It doesn't help that Grand Canyon, which beat Stanford in November, lost Saturday to a mediocre (at best) Cal Baptist squad.

RE: MBB : vs. North Carolina State, 4:00, ACCNetworkNU - fullmetal - 02-09-2025

I do believe today's Stanford team is markedly better than the Stanford team of Nov '24.

Speaking of Cal Baptist, they have a Harvard transfer...born in Palo Alto (New Trier HS, Illinois/Northfield Mount Hermon, MA).

RE: MBB : vs. North Carolina State, 4:00, ACCNetworkNU - MV72018 - 02-09-2025

I really enjoy watching this team play. They play hard and with relentless intensity. Lots of interesting players with gumption, drive, and skill on the team. I'm impressed with how well they play together as a group, supporting each other. Credit to Kyle Smith for getting them to this point. Although still a long shot, I hope for their sake that they sneak into the Dance, with all the key contributors in good health.

RE: MBB : vs. North Carolina State, 4:00, ACCNetworkNU - TrumpCard - 02-09-2025

Stanford should be favored against at Georgia Tech, Cal, BC, and at Notre Dame. The team will have to win those games to have a chance of getting to the dance.

I assume the road game at Duke will not be pretty, but Stanford can overcome a loss in that one.

That leaves two remaining tough but winnable games: vs #39 SMU and at #28 Louisville.
Can Stanford get to the dance by going 1-1 in those two games if it wins the ones in which it's favored?
21-10 (13-7) seems bubble-ish.

RE: MBB : vs. North Carolina State, 4:00, ACCNetworkNU - fullmetal - 02-09-2025

Speaking of Duke, they were upset last night by Clemson.

RE: MBB : vs. North Carolina State, 4:00, ACCNetworkNU - GK3 - 02-09-2025

(02-08-2025, 09:25 PM)Goose Wrote:
(02-08-2025, 07:25 PM)needle Wrote: 20 wins is a very realistic goal.
It is indeed. Stanford needs to beat Georgia Tech on the road, Kal at home, Boston College at home, and Notre Dame on the road. Those are games that we should win. However, the two road games are always opportunities to lose to a team we "shouldn't". Having Blakes and Gealer back would be very nice. I am not sure we are a better team than ND or GT on the road without them. I am assuming we don't beat Duke (if we do there will be an investigation :-) or Louisville. SMU at home is a reach, but not impossible if we are at full strength.

Should we beat Duke there will almost certainly be an investigation, Duke losing 4 straight games to Stanford? Impossible
We can knock Argawal for his lack of scoring and his missing shot but absolutely have to give the man a trophy for not letting his missing shot from doing all he can to keep us in the game. Until Blakes and Gealer comeback, we desperately need a 6' 6"poing guard distributor who also rebounds. Fortunately we have one.
Kyle Smith has proved that he can indeed coach. Lose your heart and soul PG, then lose your other and then play Wake to the wire and beat NCS.
How the next four game go is a crap shoot. If Blakes is back we will all of them, if we are missinig Blakes for all three we will have a tough time beating both ND and GT on the road. If Gealer is back and in decent shape we may well make it happen. Otherwise, in Ryan we believe.

RE: MBB : vs. North Carolina State, 4:00, ACCNetworkNU - Hieronymus - 02-09-2025

(02-09-2025, 03:59 PM)GK3 Wrote:
(02-08-2025, 09:25 PM)Goose Wrote:
(02-08-2025, 07:25 PM)needle Wrote: 20 wins is a very realistic goal.
It is indeed. Stanford needs to beat Georgia Tech on the road, Kal at home, Boston College at home, and Notre Dame on the road. Those are games that we should win. However, the two road games are always opportunities to lose to a team we "shouldn't". Having Blakes and Gealer back would be very nice. I am not sure we are a better team than ND or GT on the road without them. I am assuming we don't beat Duke (if we do there will be an investigation :-) or Louisville. SMU at home is a reach, but not impossible if we are at full strength.
Should we beat Duke there will almost certainly be an investigation, Duke losing 4 straight games to Stanford? Impossible
We can knock Argawal for his lack of scoring and his missing shot but absolutely have to give the man a trophy for not letting his missing shot from doing all he can to keep us in the game. Until Blakes and Gealer comeback, we desperately need a 6' 6"poing guard distributor who also rebounds. Fortunately we have one.
Kyle Smith has proved that he can indeed coach. Lose your heart and soul PG, then lose your other and then play Wake to the wire and beat NCS.
How the next four game go is a crap shoot. If Blakes is back we will all of them, if we are missinig Blakes for all three we will have a tough time beating both ND and GT on the road. If Gealer is back and in decent shape we may well make it happen. Otherwise, in Ryan we believe.

Yeah no diss on the players - but when you lose your point guard and then the back up point guard and there really is no third string, nothing is easy anymore. You can play Ryan there but it doesn't magically make him a PG. So here is to hoping they can muddle through with 2 shooting guards on the floor. It wasn’t pretty at home vs. a bad NCST team, but it was just barely good enough.

RE: MBB : vs. North Carolina State, 4:00, ACCNetworkNU - JJJ - 02-09-2025

From what I saw (and remember), it was PG by committee (or no real PG)…Agarwal, Raynaud, Sellers, and any other warm body bringing the ball down. Led to some sub-optimal sequences but we won.

RE: MBB : vs. North Carolina State, 4:00, ACCNetworkNU - needle - 02-09-2025

(02-09-2025, 03:59 PM)GK3 Wrote:
(02-08-2025, 09:25 PM)Goose Wrote:
(02-08-2025, 07:25 PM)needle Wrote: 20 wins is a very realistic goal.
It is indeed. Stanford needs to beat Georgia Tech on the road, Kal at home, Boston College at home, and Notre Dame on the road. Those are games that we should win. However, the two road games are always opportunities to lose to a team we "shouldn't". Having Blakes and Gealer back would be very nice. I am not sure we are a better team than ND or GT on the road without them. I am assuming we don't beat Duke (if we do there will be an investigation :-) or Louisville. SMU at home is a reach, but not impossible if we are at full strength.
Should we beat Duke there will almost certainly be an investigation, Duke losing 4 straight games to Stanford? Impossible
We can knock Argawal for his lack of scoring and his missing shot but absolutely have to give the man a trophy for not letting his missing shot from doing all he can to keep us in the game. Until Blakes and Gealer comeback, we desperately need a 6' 6"poing guard distributor who also rebounds. Fortunately we have one.
Kyle Smith has proved that he can indeed coach. Lose your heart and soul PG, then lose your other and then play Wake to the wire and beat NCS.
How the next four game go is a crap shoot. If Blakes is back we will all of them, if we are missinig Blakes for all three we will have a tough time beating both ND and GT on the road. If Gealer is back and in decent shape we may well make it happen. Otherwise, in Ryan we believe.

In the post-game presser, KS literally knocked on "wood" (whatever the table was made out of) in discussing how Blakes is close to coming back. He said less about Gealer, but kept it positive.

RE: MBB : vs. North Carolina State, 4:00, ACCNetworkNU - needle - 02-11-2025

(02-08-2025, 12:14 PM)needle Wrote: FWLIW, ESPN's in-house projections unit (something called the ESPN Analytics' BPI forecast), gives NC State a better chance of making the NCAA tournament (5%) than Stanford (2%).

As of Tuesday, Stanford's chances down to 1%, per ESPN's BPI.

I think it's a pretty flawed and thus silly forecast, as the BPI gives NC State a better chance at 3%, so I'm posting this for reference purposes just in case Stanford makes it in.

RE: MBB : vs. North Carolina State, 4:00, ACCNetworkNU - bbm233 - 02-11-2025

(02-11-2025, 09:04 AM)needle Wrote:
(02-08-2025, 12:14 PM)needle Wrote: FWLIW, ESPN's in-house projections unit (something called the ESPN Analytics' BPI forecast), gives NC State a better chance of making the NCAA tournament (5%) than Stanford (2%).

As of Tuesday, Stanford's chances down to 1%, per ESPN's BPI.

I think it's a pretty flawed and thus silly forecast, as the BPI gives NC State a better chance at 3%, so I'm posting this for reference purposes just in case Stanford makes it in.

Stanford will have to go on quite the run to get in, and that probably has to include a victory over Duke or Clemson. The ACC is weak this year, so just finishing 5th or 6th isn't going to be sufficient. We are currently in the 80s in KenPom, and in a typical year you have to be in the high 30s to get in as an at-large due to all of the small conference auto-bids and other conference tourney upsets. The OOC losses to Cal Poly and GCU are killers.

But, I am enjoying watching this team for the first time since the Lopi.

RE: MBB : vs. North Carolina State, 4:00, ACCNetworkNU - GK3 - 02-11-2025

(02-11-2025, 11:42 AM)bbm233 Wrote:
(02-11-2025, 09:04 AM)needle Wrote:
(02-08-2025, 12:14 PM)needle Wrote: FWLIW, ESPN's in-house projections unit (something called the ESPN Analytics' BPI forecast), gives NC State a better chance of making the NCAA tournament (5%) than Stanford (2%).

As of Tuesday, Stanford's chances down to 1%, per ESPN's BPI.

I think it's a pretty flawed and thus silly forecast, as the BPI gives NC State a better chance at 3%, so I'm posting this for reference purposes just in case Stanford makes it in.

Stanford will have to go on quite the run to get in, and that probably has to include a victory over Duke or Clemson. The ACC is weak this year, so just finishing 5th or 6th isn't going to be sufficient. We are currently in the 80s in KenPom, and in a typical year you have to be in the high 30s to get in as an at-large due to all of the small conference auto-bids and other conference tourney upsets. The OOC losses to Cal Poly and GCU are killers.

But, I am enjoying watching this team for the first time since the Lopi.

This is just a wild you know what opinion, but I think our preseason schedule had a lot to do with Smith wanting to win games and build his team chemistry and to see what he really had. Next year I hope our preseason schedule is a bit tougher but not so tough we enter ACC play with a 50/50 record. The ACC is a great basketball conference but for Stanford and Cal it is pretty tough. A road game an hour or so away, another maybe 1500 miles then all the rest twice as far. Late evening start times for home games doesn't help our crowd count. If we get back to the dance under these conditions we have to give a lot of credit the team and its coaches. I do really wish that we had somehow managed to keep MOC from going East.

RE: MBB : vs. North Carolina State, 4:00, ACCNetworkNU - skip75 - 02-11-2025

FWIW, here is updated NCAA & NIT bracketology from DRtaings:

https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/

In the NCAA tourney, they have Duke (as a #1 seed), Clemson (6), Louisville (7), UNC (11), SMU (11), Grand Canyon (13), & Norfolk State (15).

For the NIT, they have Pitt (1), Wake Forest (2), Utah Valley (4), Santa Clara (5), & Stanford (6).

They also do game predictions and have Stanford's win probability at Georgia Tech at 55.8%, with a projected score of 76.1-73.9 (with Blakes & Gealer listed as questionable).

RE: MBB : vs. North Carolina State, 4:00, ACCNetworkNU - Spiny_Norman - 02-11-2025

(02-11-2025, 01:24 PM)skip75 Wrote: FWIW, here is updated NCAA & NIT bracketology from DRtaings:

https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/

In the NCAA tourney, they have Duke (as a #1 seed), Clemson (6), Louisville (7), UNC (11), SMU (11), Grand Canyon (13), & Norfolk State (15).

For the NIT, they have Pitt (1), Wake Forest (2), Utah Valley (4), Santa Clara (5), & Stanford (6).

They also do game predictions and have Stanford's win probability at Georgia Tech at 55.8%, with a projected score of 76.1-73.9 (with Blakes & Gealer listed as questionable).

By these numbers, Stanford is 8th in the ACC. Let's work with that for now. Stanford amazingly has played or will play all 7 of the teams above it on the road. Stanford only plays 2 of them at home (SMU, Wake). The Cardinal has suffered on the road, going 1-4 vs. the teams above it with games remaining at Duke and at Louisville. Stanford also lost to Wake at home with SMU upcoming.

Overall this looks to me like the record of an NIT team.