Down to the wire .... NC Streak

Down to the wire .... NC Streak - Printable Version

+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Down to the wire .... NC Streak (/thread-25566.html)

Pages: 1 2 3 4

RE: Down to the wire .... NC Streak - Mick - 04-28-2025

So you're saying there's a chance...

RE: Down to the wire .... NC Streak - M T - 04-28-2025

(04-27-2025, 05:07 PM)BostonCard Wrote: #1 Women’s Water Polo: Just won the MPSF tournament and should be ranked #1 for the NCAA tournament. Still, the top three teams (Stanford, USC, and UCLA) are all pretty close (it took Stanford overtime to beat UCLA today)

Only 3 of the big 4 get to go to the NCAAs. 1-loss Stanford has a sure #1 seed. Which among 5-loss Ucla, 4-loss Usc, 5-loss Cal will stay at home?

If I were a betting man, I’d be willing to take an even bet on Stanford finishing on top.

RE: Down to the wire .... NC Streak - OCcardinal - 04-28-2025

(04-26-2025, 01:03 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: #2 Stanford women's rowing defeated #1 Texas in Austin this weekend. They will meet again at NCAAs at the end of May. Stanford has to be considered a serious contender for a rowing national championship.

I'd call Stanford the "heavy favorite". They essentially need to win 2 out of the 3 following races (which had the following times this past weekend):

Varsity Eight
1. Stanford- 6:32.659
2. Texas- 6:38.09

Second Varsity Eight
1. Stanford- 6:44.518
2. Texas- 6:51.012

Varsity Four
1. Stanford- 7:34.005
2. Texas- 7:40.409

I feel much better about the streak continuing after last weekend.

RE: Down to the wire .... NC Streak - fullmetal - 04-28-2025

I wouldn't count out Yale, Washington, or a late-peaking Texas quite yet. A lot of training can happen in a month, and there are still random factors such as injury and illness that can upset the apple cart.

RE: Down to the wire .... NC Streak - TooMuchTV - 04-28-2025

(04-28-2025, 10:12 AM)M T Wrote:
(04-27-2025, 05:07 PM)BostonCard Wrote: #1 Women’s Water Polo: Just won the MPSF tournament and should be ranked #1 for the NCAA tournament. Still, the top three teams (Stanford, USC, and UCLA) are all pretty close (it took Stanford overtime to beat UCLA today)
Only 3 of the big 4 get to go to the NCAAs. 1-loss Stanford has a sure #1 seed. Which among 5-loss Ucla, 4-loss Usc, 5-loss Cal will stay at home?

If I were a betting man, I’d be willing to take an even bet on Stanford finishing on top.

They are all in.

RE: Down to the wire .... NC Streak - Lorcan - 04-28-2025

Stanford Men's Tennis with a decent draw as a #4 seed - unfortunately on the same half with Wake Forest. That said, someone will have to beat Wake to take home the title this year.

RE: Down to the wire .... NC Streak - BostonCard - 04-28-2025

Another non-NCAA national title, in Sailing:

Stanford defeated Yale to capture its second straight ICSA Women's Team Racing National Championship and fourth women's title in program history. Sophie Fisher, Ellie Harned, and Vanessa Lahrkamp handled skipper duties, while Piper Blackband, Kit Harned, Alice Schmid, Ashtyn Tierney, and Shay Wood each served as crew.

BC

RE: Down to the wire .... NC Streak - StanfordMatt - 04-29-2025

(04-28-2025, 05:53 PM)Lorcan Wrote: Stanford Men's Tennis with a decent draw as a #4 seed - unfortunately on the same half with Wake Forest. That said, someone will have to beat Wake to take home the title this year.

I'd much rather be on the same side of the bracket as Wake as opposed to #2 TCU. We lost to TCU twice without registering a single point in either contest. We also lost to Wake, 2-4, however it almost certainly would've been 3-4 if the final singles match had been played to completion and would've been 4-3 in our favor had we won a tiebreaker in doubles. Not to mention that the Deacons just went out in the semifinals of the ACC tournament that we ultimately won.

We also got some bracket luck in terms of being on the opposite side as UCLA. The Bruins were unseeded after an injury plagued season saw them drop several regular season matches, however, are finally healthy and stormed their way to a Big 10 title, handing top seed Ohio State (#5 national seed) their first loss in Columbus since 2021.

All that being said, is men's tennis likely to win its first national championship since 2000? Probably not (see results vs. TCU). But stranger things have happened and no one team seems particularly dominant this year.

RE: Down to the wire .... NC Streak - OCcardinal - 04-29-2025

(04-28-2025, 01:11 PM)fullmetal Wrote: I wouldn't count out Yale, Washington, or a late-peaking Texas quite yet. A lot of training can happen in a month, and there are still random factors such as injury and illness that can upset the apple cart.

True, a lot can happen. You've got to perform on the day that counts. But the Stanford women's rowing team is nonetheless the heavy favorite as of now. Last year after Texas beat us head-to-head the Collegiate Coaches Rowing Association poll was as follows:

Rank Team Points
1 University of Texas 2614 (eventual NCAA champ)
2 Stanford University 2528 [86 points behind #1 in the polls] (eventual runner up)
3 Princeton University 2308 (ended up 4th at NCAAs)

The poll that came out today is as follows:

Rank Team Points
1 Stanford University 2989
2 University of Texas at Austin 2743 [246 points behind #1 in the polls]
3 University of Washington 2712
4 University of Tennessee, Knoxville 2622
5 Yale University 2603

Looks like the coaches believe Stanford is at another level.

RE: Down to the wire .... NC Streak - fullmetal - 04-29-2025

Let's hope so. Yale is only getting faster since they've gotten back on the water, and the only point of comparison will be against mutual opponent Syracuse, who Stanford will see at ACCs. As for polls...meh, there are heavy blind spots where data are sparse. The pollsters didn't see Washington coming last season because of a reduced race calendar, but that didn't mean Washington wasn't fast. I think Yale is severely underrated right now as a medal contender, but of course I want to see Stanford win it all. I have more analysis, but this isn't a rowing forum lol.

RE: Down to the wire .... NC Streak - Jamesy - 04-29-2025

(04-29-2025, 04:18 PM)fullmetal Wrote: Let's hope so. Yale is only getting faster since they've gotten back on the water, and the only point of comparison will be against mutual opponent Syracuse, who Stanford will see at ACCs. As for polls...meh, there are heavy blind spots where data are sparse. The pollsters didn't see Washington coming last season because of a reduced race calendar, but that didn't mean Washington wasn't fast. I think Yale is severely underrated right now as a medal contender, but of course I want to see Stanford win it all. I have more analysis, but this isn't a rowing forum lol.

I'd love to see more analysis. If you can't get into the minutiae of collegiate rowing here, where can you?

RE: Down to the wire .... NC Streak - bl82 - 04-29-2025

(04-29-2025, 10:09 PM)Jamesy Wrote:
(04-29-2025, 04:18 PM)fullmetal Wrote: Let's hope so. Yale is only getting faster since they've gotten back on the water, and the only point of comparison will be against mutual opponent Syracuse, who Stanford will see at ACCs. As for polls...meh, there are heavy blind spots where data are sparse. The pollsters didn't see Washington coming last season because of a reduced race calendar, but that didn't mean Washington wasn't fast. I think Yale is severely underrated right now as a medal contender, but of course I want to see Stanford win it all. I have more analysis, but this isn't a rowing forum lol.

I'd love to see more analysis. If you can't get into the minutiae of collegiate rowing here, where can you?

I'm with Jamesy. No need to hold back on the rowing analysis, here.

RE: Down to the wire .... NC Streak - fullmetal - 04-30-2025

Jamesy Wrote:If you can't get into the minutiae of collegiate rowing here, where can you?

well, uh:
https://rowingillustrated.com/boards/
https://reddit.com/r/rowing

Okay, I was hot on Princeton at the start of the season because they were the only 1V boat with eight non-seniors/5th yrs at NCAAs last season. Not saying the same rowers ended up earning their seats back this season, but it's a big deal to have an A final boat return everyone. Texas only returned two, most other crews lost a couple or so. But then Yale comes back with two Olympians (one silver medalist) and another who tried to qualify for the Olympics -- all three trained full-time in 2024, and they beat Princeton a couple of weeks ago. As much as one would expect Princeton to get faster from last season, Yale got even faster.

The cMax rankings (ordinary least squares) for the 1V boats bear this out. They also predict that Stanford is ahead of the field, but unlike any other human poll, they put Yale in second place. I think the margins will shrink after Stanford's trip to Austin, but not enough to change the ranking. (I don't quite believe Tennessee is faster than Texas either, and Rutgers over Brown would be news to me.)

https://www.row2k.com/polls/index.cfm?cat=college&ID=1016&type=cMax%20Rankings

The east coast and midwest schools tend to get comparably faster through the season because of the comparatively more valuable experience on the water after a winter frozen off the water. We'll see what happens.

RE: Down to the wire .... NC Streak - Leftcoast - 04-30-2025

Thanks, Fullmetal.

I remember your EPIC breakdown of rowing and in-race fundamentals from 9-10 years ago. Believe it or not, those posts were the direct cause of my current interest in rowing/crew. Not that I'm a brobdingnagian fan but I have attended an event or two and follow it on TV when I can. See ... every seed might bear some fruit!

RE: Down to the wire .... NC Streak - Jamesy - 04-30-2025

(04-30-2025, 12:22 AM)fullmetal Wrote:
Jamesy Wrote:If you can't get into the minutiae of collegiate rowing here, where can you?
well, uh:
https://rowingillustrated.com/boards/
https://reddit.com/r/rowing

Okay, I was hot on Princeton at the start of the season because they were the only 1V boat with eight non-seniors/5th yrs at NCAAs last season. Not saying the same rowers ended up earning their seats back this season, but it's a big deal to have an A final boat return everyone. Texas only returned two, most other crews lost a couple or so. But then Yale comes back with two Olympians (one silver medalist) and another who tried to qualify for the Olympics -- all three trained full-time in 2024, and they beat Princeton a couple of weeks ago. As much as one would expect Princeton to get faster from last season, Yale got even faster.

The cMax rankings (ordinary least squares) for the 1V boats bear this out. They also predict that Stanford is ahead of the field, but unlike any other human poll, they put Yale in second place. I think the margins will shrink after Stanford's trip to Austin, but not enough to change the ranking. (I don't quite believe Tennessee is faster than Texas either, and Rutgers over Brown would be news to me.)

https://www.row2k.com/polls/index.cfm?cat=college&ID=1016&type=cMax%20Rankings

The east coast and midwest schools tend to get comparably faster through the season because of the comparatively more valuable experience on the water after a winter frozen off the water. We'll see what happens.

Thanks. I remember posting earlier this year how i felt it would come down to Texas or us for the natty and you had shouted out Princeton. The Ivy championships in a couple weeks should be interesting to see how Princeton/Yale shape up. An Ivy team hasn't won or finished second at NCAA's in 14 years (Brown won in 2011) and I still think it comes down to us or Texas.

Rowing illustrated has 2 threads this month on women's college rowing and the reddit thread isn't college focused enough for my (admittedly narrow) taste so I really appreciate your analysis.

RE: Down to the wire .... NC Streak - fullmetal - 04-30-2025

rowingillustrated just has one thread for the whole season for women's rowing, so it ends up looking like a Slack channel at times lol.

I'm heavily favoring Yale to win the Ivy League and giving them a solid chance to medal at NCAAs at this point. Stanford, Washington, and Texas would round out my top four (team points), but Tennessee has earned the right to be at least in that conversation after the Big 10 Invite this year (one of their eights beat a Washington eight). As with last year, I suspect it will come down to Brown or kal for the last spot in the 1V A final.

I haven't been super active in keeping the board apprised of rowing events, but I feel like I should have been! (I have actually been to several home regattas this season and will also be at Big Row vs. kal this weekend, roughly 9am-noon Saturday at Redwood Shores.) Come out to watch some really fast crews this weekend!

RE: Down to the wire .... NC Streak - Spiny_Norman - 05-08-2025

Women's water polo starts its run to the national championship tomorrow (Friday) in the quarterfinals vs. Wagner at 9 am pacific.

In the meantime, enjoy this profile of Ryann Neushul by David Kiefer - https://gostanford.com/news/2025/05/8/pride-of-relentlessness

RE: Down to the wire .... NC Streak - Maple Leaf - 05-12-2025

NC Streak continues, Women's WP is the 2025 National Champion.

RE: Down to the wire .... NC Streak - terry - 05-12-2025

(05-12-2025, 06:26 AM)Maple Leaf Wrote: NC Streak continues, Women's WP is the 2025 National Champion.

The Streak now stands at 49 years!

RE: Down to the wire .... NC Streak - PalmTree - 05-12-2025

(05-12-2025, 06:26 AM)Maple Leaf Wrote: NC Streak continues, Women's WP is the 2025 National Champion.

That was wonderful to see the score yesterday - WHOOT! So this is, what, 49 consecutive Natty years, is that correct? Amazing.

Also, Welcome Back, 'Board!