04-28-2025, 08:51 AM
So you're saying there's a chance...
Audaces fortuna iuvat
(04-27-2025, 05:07 PM)BostonCard Wrote: #1 Women’s Water Polo: Just won the MPSF tournament and should be ranked #1 for the NCAA tournament. Still, the top three teams (Stanford, USC, and UCLA) are all pretty close (it took Stanford overtime to beat UCLA today)Only 3 of the big 4 get to go to the NCAAs. 1-loss Stanford has a sure #1 seed. Which among 5-loss Ucla, 4-loss Usc, 5-loss Cal will stay at home?
(04-27-2025, 05:07 PM)BostonCard Wrote: #1 Women’s Water Polo: Just won the MPSF tournament and should be ranked #1 for the NCAA tournament. Still, the top three teams (Stanford, USC, and UCLA) are all pretty close (it took Stanford overtime to beat UCLA today)Only 3 of the big 4 get to go to the NCAAs. 1-loss Stanford has a sure #1 seed. Which among 5-loss Ucla, 4-loss Usc, 5-loss Cal will stay at home?
(04-26-2025, 01:03 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: #2 Stanford women's rowing defeated #1 Texas in Austin this weekend. They will meet again at NCAAs at the end of May. Stanford has to be considered a serious contender for a rowing national championship.I'd call Stanford the "heavy favorite". They essentially need to win 2 out of the 3 following races (which had the following times this past weekend):
(04-26-2025, 01:03 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: #2 Stanford women's rowing defeated #1 Texas in Austin this weekend. They will meet again at NCAAs at the end of May. Stanford has to be considered a serious contender for a rowing national championship.I'd call Stanford the "heavy favorite". They essentially need to win 2 out of the 3 following races (which had the following times this past weekend):
(04-28-2025, 10:12 AM)M T Wrote:(04-27-2025, 05:07 PM)BostonCard Wrote: #1 Women’s Water Polo: Just won the MPSF tournament and should be ranked #1 for the NCAA tournament. Still, the top three teams (Stanford, USC, and UCLA) are all pretty close (it took Stanford overtime to beat UCLA today)Only 3 of the big 4 get to go to the NCAAs. 1-loss Stanford has a sure #1 seed. Which among 5-loss Ucla, 4-loss Usc, 5-loss Cal will stay at home?
If I were a betting man, I’d be willing to take an even bet on Stanford finishing on top.
(04-28-2025, 10:12 AM)M T Wrote:(04-27-2025, 05:07 PM)BostonCard Wrote: #1 Women’s Water Polo: Just won the MPSF tournament and should be ranked #1 for the NCAA tournament. Still, the top three teams (Stanford, USC, and UCLA) are all pretty close (it took Stanford overtime to beat UCLA today)Only 3 of the big 4 get to go to the NCAAs. 1-loss Stanford has a sure #1 seed. Which among 5-loss Ucla, 4-loss Usc, 5-loss Cal will stay at home?
If I were a betting man, I’d be willing to take an even bet on Stanford finishing on top.
(04-28-2025, 05:53 PM)Lorcan Wrote: Stanford Men's Tennis with a decent draw as a #4 seed - unfortunately on the same half with Wake Forest. That said, someone will have to beat Wake to take home the title this year.
(04-28-2025, 05:53 PM)Lorcan Wrote: Stanford Men's Tennis with a decent draw as a #4 seed - unfortunately on the same half with Wake Forest. That said, someone will have to beat Wake to take home the title this year.
(04-28-2025, 01:11 PM)fullmetal Wrote: I wouldn't count out Yale, Washington, or a late-peaking Texas quite yet. A lot of training can happen in a month, and there are still random factors such as injury and illness that can upset the apple cart.True, a lot can happen. You've got to perform on the day that counts. But the Stanford women's rowing team is nonetheless the heavy favorite as of now. Last year after Texas beat us head-to-head the Collegiate Coaches Rowing Association poll was as follows:
(04-28-2025, 01:11 PM)fullmetal Wrote: I wouldn't count out Yale, Washington, or a late-peaking Texas quite yet. A lot of training can happen in a month, and there are still random factors such as injury and illness that can upset the apple cart.True, a lot can happen. You've got to perform on the day that counts. But the Stanford women's rowing team is nonetheless the heavy favorite as of now. Last year after Texas beat us head-to-head the Collegiate Coaches Rowing Association poll was as follows:
(04-29-2025, 04:18 PM)fullmetal Wrote: Let's hope so. Yale is only getting faster since they've gotten back on the water, and the only point of comparison will be against mutual opponent Syracuse, who Stanford will see at ACCs. As for polls...meh, there are heavy blind spots where data are sparse. The pollsters didn't see Washington coming last season because of a reduced race calendar, but that didn't mean Washington wasn't fast. I think Yale is severely underrated right now as a medal contender, but of course I want to see Stanford win it all. I have more analysis, but this isn't a rowing forum lol.
(04-29-2025, 04:18 PM)fullmetal Wrote: Let's hope so. Yale is only getting faster since they've gotten back on the water, and the only point of comparison will be against mutual opponent Syracuse, who Stanford will see at ACCs. As for polls...meh, there are heavy blind spots where data are sparse. The pollsters didn't see Washington coming last season because of a reduced race calendar, but that didn't mean Washington wasn't fast. I think Yale is severely underrated right now as a medal contender, but of course I want to see Stanford win it all. I have more analysis, but this isn't a rowing forum lol.
(04-29-2025, 10:09 PM)Jamesy Wrote:(04-29-2025, 04:18 PM)fullmetal Wrote: Let's hope so. Yale is only getting faster since they've gotten back on the water, and the only point of comparison will be against mutual opponent Syracuse, who Stanford will see at ACCs. As for polls...meh, there are heavy blind spots where data are sparse. The pollsters didn't see Washington coming last season because of a reduced race calendar, but that didn't mean Washington wasn't fast. I think Yale is severely underrated right now as a medal contender, but of course I want to see Stanford win it all. I have more analysis, but this isn't a rowing forum lol.
I'd love to see more analysis. If you can't get into the minutiae of collegiate rowing here, where can you?
(04-29-2025, 10:09 PM)Jamesy Wrote:(04-29-2025, 04:18 PM)fullmetal Wrote: Let's hope so. Yale is only getting faster since they've gotten back on the water, and the only point of comparison will be against mutual opponent Syracuse, who Stanford will see at ACCs. As for polls...meh, there are heavy blind spots where data are sparse. The pollsters didn't see Washington coming last season because of a reduced race calendar, but that didn't mean Washington wasn't fast. I think Yale is severely underrated right now as a medal contender, but of course I want to see Stanford win it all. I have more analysis, but this isn't a rowing forum lol.
I'd love to see more analysis. If you can't get into the minutiae of collegiate rowing here, where can you?
Jamesy Wrote:If you can't get into the minutiae of collegiate rowing here, where can you?well, uh:
Jamesy Wrote:If you can't get into the minutiae of collegiate rowing here, where can you?well, uh:
(04-30-2025, 12:22 AM)fullmetal Wrote:Jamesy Wrote:If you can't get into the minutiae of collegiate rowing here, where can you?well, uh:
https://rowingillustrated.com/boards/
https://reddit.com/r/rowing
Okay, I was hot on Princeton at the start of the season because they were the only 1V boat with eight non-seniors/5th yrs at NCAAs last season. Not saying the same rowers ended up earning their seats back this season, but it's a big deal to have an A final boat return everyone. Texas only returned two, most other crews lost a couple or so. But then Yale comes back with two Olympians (one silver medalist) and another who tried to qualify for the Olympics -- all three trained full-time in 2024, and they beat Princeton a couple of weeks ago. As much as one would expect Princeton to get faster from last season, Yale got even faster.
The cMax rankings (ordinary least squares) for the 1V boats bear this out. They also predict that Stanford is ahead of the field, but unlike any other human poll, they put Yale in second place. I think the margins will shrink after Stanford's trip to Austin, but not enough to change the ranking. (I don't quite believe Tennessee is faster than Texas either, and Rutgers over Brown would be news to me.)
https://www.row2k.com/polls/index.cfm?ca...20Rankings
The east coast and midwest schools tend to get comparably faster through the season because of the comparatively more valuable experience on the water after a winter frozen off the water. We'll see what happens.
(04-30-2025, 12:22 AM)fullmetal Wrote:Jamesy Wrote:If you can't get into the minutiae of collegiate rowing here, where can you?well, uh:
https://rowingillustrated.com/boards/
https://reddit.com/r/rowing
Okay, I was hot on Princeton at the start of the season because they were the only 1V boat with eight non-seniors/5th yrs at NCAAs last season. Not saying the same rowers ended up earning their seats back this season, but it's a big deal to have an A final boat return everyone. Texas only returned two, most other crews lost a couple or so. But then Yale comes back with two Olympians (one silver medalist) and another who tried to qualify for the Olympics -- all three trained full-time in 2024, and they beat Princeton a couple of weeks ago. As much as one would expect Princeton to get faster from last season, Yale got even faster.
The cMax rankings (ordinary least squares) for the 1V boats bear this out. They also predict that Stanford is ahead of the field, but unlike any other human poll, they put Yale in second place. I think the margins will shrink after Stanford's trip to Austin, but not enough to change the ranking. (I don't quite believe Tennessee is faster than Texas either, and Rutgers over Brown would be news to me.)
https://www.row2k.com/polls/index.cfm?ca...20Rankings
The east coast and midwest schools tend to get comparably faster through the season because of the comparatively more valuable experience on the water after a winter frozen off the water. We'll see what happens.