Grading Kate Paye's Performance

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RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - liveoak - 01-27-2026

(01-26-2026, 11:06 PM)Griffins78 Wrote: I thought Charmin out coached Kate last night.

Cal maneuvered to get wide open 3s against our vaunted scout defense while we pass and dribble around the perimeter and had difficulty getting 3s. Cal has lost several close games to top teams because they fade late in the game with a short bench. Instead of substituting to get fresh legs we kept the same players in almost the entire 4th & OT. Our team was tired and sluggish. We dribbled and passed the ball around and had numerous empty possessions. Then with time running out we no sense of urgency. We dribbled and passed the ball around. We didn’t press. We didn’t substitute so our starting players had to make fouls. At the end we had 4 of our top players in with 4 fouls each. We had the opportunity but did not substitute so Somfai - the player that made the 3 to send us to OT fouled out.

I’m beginning to really lose confidence in Kate’s coaching ability.

I do not agree with this argument in this case.

Last night, Kate started Swain, Agara, Ogden, Somfai, and Clardy. Lepolo didn't make the trip, Harper Peterson was in sweats as was Kennedy Umeh. The bench consisted of Eschmeyer, Stevenson, Ijiwoye, and a group of players who realistically seldom get playing time - Amborn, Papadaki, Ezike, and Green.

After Nunu was injured and could not continue, Eschmeyer came in and played well - leaving Stevenson and Ijiwoye as our only regular substitutes. And there have been many comments about using Stevenson in the lineup.

I agree that one of the players who normally don't play should sub in and foul at the end. My question is who of Amborn, Papadaki, Ezike, and Green - who normally don't play and have little court time on the season - should be put in cold to play in the 4th quarter of a hot rivalry game. I don't think any of those players are ready for the speed of that game or they would already be getting minutes in the middle of games. I also don't fault Kate for making that decision - when they were speed fouling to get them to shoot free-throws...which actually worked and got us to overtime. If we don't miss a bunch of close shots in overtime, we might have won...

If she puts an inexperienced player in, they may foul...or they may let the other team score- and you would be worse off.

My feeling about the offense is that it is too controlled and moves too slow; I would suggest that Kate hire an assistant that is a strong offensive coach for next year and let them run the offense

(01-26-2026, 07:03 PM)Card10Fan Wrote: Let's revisit this post, now in Coach Paye season 2, does it feel like the coaching has improved this year?

From watching most of the games this season in person and the rest on tv.
-We are a team that doesn’t have any offensive identity
-A team that consistently has way turnovers than assists.
-A team that doesn't seem to put players in positions to use their skillset to the fullest offensively
-A team that lacks fundamentals (missed layups, turnovers)
-A team that does not look much improved from the start of the season

I love our players and understand we are incredibly dependent on young players. We also have 3 juniors that play a ton of minutes and a SR point guard that started as freshman on a very talented roster. It starts and ends with coaching. I would say I've been somewhat disappointed yet again. I will be especially bummed if we miss out on the NCAA tourney again which is a real possibility at the moment.

I think the defense is working well, but obviously the offense needs help. Not sure what to do about the layups, but the turnovers look like unfamiliarity. I think the offense has changed a bit since the beginning of the year and that might be the reason. I would suggest that Kate get someone for next year who is an offensive specialist to coach the offense...and yes I will be bummed if we don't make the tournament.

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - martyup - 01-27-2026

(01-26-2026, 11:09 PM)BostonCard Wrote:
(01-26-2026, 08:31 PM)martyup Wrote: Stanford's WBB team not making the NCAA tourney two years in a row is simply unacceptable. Thanks to Tara, Stanford has the winning reputation to attract the talent to be a top 25 team every year. If we fall short again this season, KP should be fired because she either didn't pull in the talent needed or didn't coach well enough. With two non-tourney seasons under her belt, it will be difficult for her to attract the players needed. I hope she can turn it around in the next several weeks.

Until her last few years, Tara didn’t have to deal with the transfer portal, but it started to bite a few years ago in ways that are affecting the current team (eg, Lauren Betts and Indya Nivar are starting at UCLA and UNC, respectively). Until her last year here, Tara didn’t have to deal with other teams offering players 6 figure NIL deals. That is the current reality, and until we know how the NIL/House settlement money settles out, any comparisons of recruiting, retention, and results between the pre-2020 state of affairs and the post-2025 state of affairs will be apples-to-oranges.

Don’t get me wrong, Paye may well not be the right person to follow Tara. But I’m not ready to write her off either (even if we fail to make the tournament).

BC

There are 64 teams that managed to make the big dance last season, and there will be 64 teams that manage to make it this season. KP sat right next to TV for 17 years, giving her plenty of time to see the writing on the wall and adjust. Hell, she's a Stanford grad and has a MBA and JD from Stanford. If she failed to anticipate the changes in NCAA WBB, shame on her. If she was shut down by the Stanford administration in taking the action necessary to keep the program performing at a high level, shame on them. The bottom line is that Stanford should not accept mediocrity in its WBB program.

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - ADPinWDC - 01-27-2026

We can make the NCAA Tourney (now at 15-6) -- and then face a steep climb, likely a top seed in the second round.
BUT -- the next 10 games in the ACC look like a really tough slate... Will be lucky to go 5-5. Then finish at 20-11. Bubble at best.
So far... ESPN has us as in #8 seed in the Sacramento Region to open in LA... vs MIST, then #1 seed UCLA (host of first two rounds).
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/30423107/ncaa-women-bracketology-2026-women-college-basketball-projections

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - liveoak - 01-27-2026

(01-27-2026, 04:22 PM)martyup Wrote:
(01-26-2026, 11:09 PM)BostonCard Wrote:
(01-26-2026, 08:31 PM)martyup Wrote: Stanford's WBB team not making the NCAA tourney two years in a row is simply unacceptable. Thanks to Tara, Stanford has the winning reputation to attract the talent to be a top 25 team every year. If we fall short again this season, KP should be fired because she either didn't pull in the talent needed or didn't coach well enough. With two non-tourney seasons under her belt, it will be difficult for her to attract the players needed. I hope she can turn it around in the next several weeks.

Until her last few years, Tara didn’t have to deal with the transfer portal, but it started to bite a few years ago in ways that are affecting the current team (eg, Lauren Betts and Indya Nivar are starting at UCLA and UNC, respectively). Until her last year here, Tara didn’t have to deal with other teams offering players 6 figure NIL deals. That is the current reality, and until we know how the NIL/House settlement money settles out, any comparisons of recruiting, retention, and results between the pre-2020 state of affairs and the post-2025 state of affairs will be apples-to-oranges.

Don’t get me wrong, Paye may well not be the right person to follow Tara. But I’m not ready to write her off either (even if we fail to make the tournament).

BC

There are 64 teams that managed to make the big dance last season, and there will be 64 teams that manage to make it this season. KP sat right next to TV for 17 years, giving her plenty of time to see the writing on the wall and adjust. Hell, she's a Stanford grad and has a MBA and JD from Stanford. If she failed to anticipate the changes in NCAA WBB, shame on her. If she was shut down by the Stanford administration in taking the action necessary to keep the program performing at a high level, shame on them. The bottom line is that Stanford should not accept mediocrity in its WBB program.

I agree that Stanford should not accept mediocrity in WBB. Part of this is recruiting. We need to get high-level recruits to come here...and we probably need to pay them. Without those two things, no coach will have enough to succeed. We have missed out on several top recruits...was this due to unattractive basketball or to the fact that we were outbid for them. Kate can work on the basketball, but if she doesn't have the money...

I think Kate is a very good defensive coach, but I'm not as convinced by her offense. I would suggest getting a coach who focuses on the offense and let Kate manage the team and look over the defense.

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - mbdude - 01-27-2026

Maybe an assistant coach without Stanford ties

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - BostonCard - 01-27-2026

(01-27-2026, 04:22 PM)martyup Wrote: The bottom line is that Stanford should not accept mediocrity in its WBB program.

I know I sound like a broken record here, but may I ask what you are going to do about it? Are you going to fund the women’s basketball program at a level to guarantee success? If you don’t have a gazillion dollars to do that you will… what… make mean posts on pseudonymous message boards? hold your breath until they fire Kate Paye?

This is a message board so that vein of posts is par for the course. But I try to remember that at the end of the day, we are talking about 20 year olds throwing spheres through hoops in a *game* with arbitrary rules that was invented by a PE teacher to keep students busy during the winter. The consequences of Stanford not going to the tournament are mainly that I will have a bit more time in March from not watching the game (time that I will likely waste on this board being insufferable by admonishing people that it is silly to act all demanding about firing a coach for not making the tournament and that your only real choices are to donate gobs of money to ensure the outcome you want or maybe be a bit more copacetic about what at the end of the day is merely a game).

BC

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - TheFarm07 - 01-28-2026

(01-27-2026, 11:06 PM)BostonCard Wrote:
(01-27-2026, 04:22 PM)martyup Wrote: The bottom line is that Stanford should not accept mediocrity in its WBB program.

I know I sound like a broken record here, but may I ask what you are going to do about it? Are you going to fund the women’s basketball program at a level to guarantee success? If you don’t have a gazillion dollars to do that you will… what… make mean posts on pseudonymous message boards? hold your breath until they fire Kate Paye?

This is a message board so that vein of posts is par for the course. But I try to remember that at the end of the day, we are talking about 20 year olds throwing spheres through hoops in a *game* with arbitrary rules that was invented by a PE teacher to keep students busy during the winter. The consequences of Stanford not going to the tournament are mainly that I will have a bit more time in March from not watching the game (time that I will likely waste on this board being insufferable by admonishing people that it is silly to act all demanding about firing a coach for not making the tournament and that your only real choices are to donate gobs of money to ensure the outcome you want or maybe be a bit more copacetic about what at the end of the day is merely a game).

BC

I think, like the comments of most sports fans, martyup's statement was more rhetorical in nature rather than a call for action from us on the Cardboard. Even when fans yell in their home stadiums to fire their own coach, I would venture that most don't believe beyond showing public sentiment and as a byproduct, public pressure, that they personally can do anything about their team's coaching situation

Sports fans are passionate and when they are frustrated about the teams, programs and franchises they love, they need an outlet and venting is often the way to let out their frustration.

I think we all understand that these posts won't affect Kate Paye's job security but we are using it as a way to show our dismay at the downfall of a once proud program whose tournament qualifications were never a question for more than three decades. I miss, as I am sure everyone here does as well, reading articles mentioning Stanford as a contender, if not one of the favorites for a deep tournament run.

NIL is something outside of Paye's control but as noted here, there are certainly a lot of other significant factors that do fall under her purview and it feels like we are less than the sum of our parts.

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - BostonCard - 01-28-2026

Thanks for your thoughtful response. I acknowledged my own insufferability on this issue and acknowledged that “This is a message board so that vein of posts is par for the course.” That being said, the motto of this board is “More Signal * Less Noise” and while acknowledging that my own post may have been more on the “noise” than “signal” side of things, I submit that frustrated venting tends not to be the source of “high signal” discussion. I know there are very knowledgeable people on this board, and I would certainly welcome a more analytical approach that exposes how our offense gets bogged down and what offensive changes could counteract that and make our offense more fluid and productive.

BC

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - BobK - 01-28-2026

Let me introduce you to a member of Kate’s staff. Rr NIL

https://gostanford.com/sports/womens-basketball/roster/season/2025-26/staff/malia-bates

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - TonyLima - 01-28-2026

(01-27-2026, 04:22 PM)martyup Wrote:
(01-26-2026, 11:09 PM)BostonCard Wrote:
(01-26-2026, 08:31 PM)martyup Wrote: Stanford's WBB team not making the NCAA tourney two years in a row is simply unacceptable. Thanks to Tara, Stanford has the winning reputation to attract the talent to be a top 25 team every year. If we fall short again this season, KP should be fired because she either didn't pull in the talent needed or didn't coach well enough. With two non-tourney seasons under her belt, it will be difficult for her to attract the players needed. I hope she can turn it around in the next several weeks.

Until her last few years, Tara didn’t have to deal with the transfer portal, but it started to bite a few years ago in ways that are affecting the current team (eg, Lauren Betts and Indya Nivar are starting at UCLA and UNC, respectively). Until her last year here, Tara didn’t have to deal with other teams offering players 6 figure NIL deals. That is the current reality, and until we know how the NIL/House settlement money settles out, any comparisons of recruiting, retention, and results between the pre-2020 state of affairs and the post-2025 state of affairs will be apples-to-oranges.

Don’t get me wrong, Paye may well not be the right person to follow Tara. But I’m not ready to write her off either (even if we fail to make the tournament).

BC

There are 64 teams that managed to make the big dance last season, and there will be 64 teams that manage to make it this season. KP sat right next to TV for 17 years, giving her plenty of time to see the writing on the wall and adjust. Hell, she's a Stanford grad and has a MBA and JD from Stanford. If she failed to anticipate the changes in NCAA WBB, shame on her. If she was shut down by the Stanford administration in taking the action necessary to keep the program performing at a high level, shame on them. The bottom line is that Stanford should not accept mediocrity in its WBB program.

OTOH, maybe Kate learned to be a rsally good assistant coach. See the Peter Principle.

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - crackpot - 01-29-2026

(01-28-2026, 10:12 PM)TonyLima Wrote: OTOH, maybe Kate learned to be a rsally good assistant coach. See the Peter Principle.

We definitely jumped back into the elite level the first season she was on the bench (07-08).

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - BostonCard - 01-29-2026

(01-28-2026, 10:12 PM)TonyLima Wrote: OTOH, maybe Kate learned to be a rsally good assistant coach. See the Peter Principle.

It would hardly be the first time that someone was a superb assistant but whose skill set didn’t translate to being a head coach. That being said, I think it is too early to conclude that, and I certainly hope it’s not the case.

BC

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - petersalas - 01-29-2026

I wholeheartedly agree. I love the coaching staff and hope the team starts rolling, jelling, and just go on an upward trajectory from here on out.

(01-29-2026, 11:45 AM)BostonCard Wrote:
(01-28-2026, 10:12 PM)TonyLima Wrote: OTOH, maybe Kate learned to be a rsally good assistant coach. See the Peter Principle.

It would hardly be the first time that someone was a superb assistant but whose skill set didn’t translate to being a head coach. That being said, I think it is too early to conclude that, and I certainly hope it’s not the case.

BC

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - MV72018 - 01-29-2026

(01-29-2026, 12:01 PM)petersalas Wrote: I wholeheartedly agree. I love the coaching staff and hope the team starts rolling, jelling, and just go on an upward trajectory from here on out.

(01-29-2026, 11:45 AM)BostonCard Wrote:
(01-28-2026, 10:12 PM)TonyLima Wrote: OTOH, maybe Kate learned to be a rsally good assistant coach. See the Peter Principle.

It would hardly be the first time that someone was a superb assistant but whose skill set didn’t translate to being a head coach. That being said, I think it is too early to conclude that, and I certainly hope it’s not the case.

BC

Peter, Your "hope" is one thing, evidence quite another. Show me the evidence.

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - petersalas - 01-29-2026

Well, we’re in the wait and see. I mean I said hope for a reason. It definitely hasn’t been an easy season and a half, but there’s still a second half of the season to go. I’ll be cheering them on today and maybe, just maybe it’ll be enough for another ranked win!

(01-29-2026, 12:25 PM)MV72018 Wrote:
(01-29-2026, 12:01 PM)petersalas Wrote: I wholeheartedly agree. I love the coaching staff and hope the team starts rolling, jelling, and just go on an upward trajectory from here on out.

(01-29-2026, 11:45 AM)BostonCard Wrote:
(01-28-2026, 10:12 PM)TonyLima Wrote: OTOH, maybe Kate learned to be a rsally good assistant coach. See the Peter Principle.

It would hardly be the first time that someone was a superb assistant but whose skill set didn’t translate to being a head coach. That being said, I think it is too early to conclude that, and I certainly hope it’s not the case.

BC

Peter, Your "hope" is one thing, evidence quite another. Show me the evidence.

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - SkiBum80 - 01-29-2026

(01-28-2026, 10:12 PM)TonyLima Wrote:
(01-27-2026, 04:22 PM)martyup Wrote:
(01-26-2026, 11:09 PM)BostonCard Wrote:
(01-26-2026, 08:31 PM)martyup Wrote: Stanford's WBB team not making the NCAA tourney two years in a row is simply unacceptable. Thanks to Tara, Stanford has the winning reputation to attract the talent to be a top 25 team every year. If we fall short again this season, KP should be fired because she either didn't pull in the talent needed or didn't coach well enough. With two non-tourney seasons under her belt, it will be difficult for her to attract the players needed. I hope she can turn it around in the next several weeks.

Until her last few years, Tara didn’t have to deal with the transfer portal, but it started to bite a few years ago in ways that are affecting the current team (eg, Lauren Betts and Indya Nivar are starting at UCLA and UNC, respectively). Until her last year here, Tara didn’t have to deal with other teams offering players 6 figure NIL deals. That is the current reality, and until we know how the NIL/House settlement money settles out, any comparisons of recruiting, retention, and results between the pre-2020 state of affairs and the post-2025 state of affairs will be apples-to-oranges.

Don’t get me wrong, Paye may well not be the right person to follow Tara. But I’m not ready to write her off either (even if we fail to make the tournament).

BC

There are 64 teams that managed to make the big dance last season, and there will be 64 teams that manage to make it this season. KP sat right next to TV for 17 years, giving her plenty of time to see the writing on the wall and adjust. Hell, she's a Stanford grad and has a MBA and JD from Stanford. If she failed to anticipate the changes in NCAA WBB, shame on her. If she was shut down by the Stanford administration in taking the action necessary to keep the program performing at a high level, shame on them. The bottom line is that Stanford should not accept mediocrity in its WBB program.
OTOH, maybe Kate learned to be a rsally good assistant coach. See the Peter Principle.

Loved that book. My Dad had it at the house.

I think there's 2 main coaching grades for a head coach: game prep and coaching, and recruiting, .. maybe a third: quality of assistants brought in.
Dunno final grades for Coach P, but certainly the recruiting grade is doing better than game prep and coaching so far.

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - BobK - 01-29-2026

I read the Peter Principle long ago and do believe it. Of course sometimes true sometimes not

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - Card10Fan - 01-29-2026

Currently Stanford has 3 assists and 22 turnovers vs Louisville. Unfortunately it is not an anomaly stat. It's happened all year long. That is not a Tara coached team statistic.

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - BostonCard - 01-29-2026

(01-29-2026, 07:56 PM)Card10Fan Wrote: Currently Stanford has 3 assists and 22 turnovers vs Louisville. Unfortunately it is not an anomaly stat. It's happened all year long. That is not a Tara coached team statistic.

It is also a team that today started three freshmen (including one at point guard) and lost its senior point guard and its best player to injury.

Still your point is well taken, if a bit overstated; our turnover percentage with Kate Paye as a coach was 21.8% (and will go up after this game is registered) and 20.8% last year. Going back to 2021, TVD’s teams turnover percentage was between 18.1 and 19.5%. So, call it a turnover percentage that’s 2.5% higher than it was during TVD’s last few years. Given an adjusted tempo of about 68 possessions/game, that translates to 1-2 turnovers per game more now.

On the other hand, our defensive turnover creation percentage this year is 21.1%, which is about 4% higher than it was in TVD’s last two years (16.7 and 16.5%), a difference of about 4.5%, which translates to creating about 3 more turnovers per game than in the two years preceeding Kate Paye. If you do the math, that means that net turnovers are actually improved compared to 2023 and 2024.

An astute observer will note that I didn’t quote the numbers from before 2023, when our defensive turnover percentage was higher than it is this year. But that is a comparison to a National Champion and Final Four teams.

Numbers here: https://barttorvik.com/ncaaw/team-history.php?team=Stanford

BC

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - MV72018 - 01-29-2026

(01-29-2026, 08:18 PM)BostonCard Wrote:
(01-29-2026, 07:56 PM)Card10Fan Wrote: Currently Stanford has 3 assists and 22 turnovers vs Louisville. Unfortunately it is not an anomaly stat. It's happened all year long. That is not a Tara coached team statistic.

It is also a team that today started three freshmen (including one at point guard) and lost its senior point guard and its best player to injury.

Still your point is well taken, if a bit overstated; our turnover percentage with Kate Paye as a coach was 21.8% (and will go up after this game is registered) and 20.8% last year. Going back to 2021, TVD’s teams turnover percentage was between 18.1 and 19.5%. So, call it a turnover percentage that’s 2.5% higher than it was during TVD’s last few years. Given an adjusted tempo of about 68 possessions/game, that translates to 1-2 turnovers per game more now.

On the other hand, our defensive turnover creation percentage this year is 21.1%, which is about 4% higher than it was in TVD’s last two years (16.7 and 16.5%), a difference of about 4.5%, which translates to creating about 3 more turnovers per game than in the two years preceeding Kate Paye. If you do the math, that means that net turnovers are actually improved compared to 2023 and 2024.

An astute observer will note that I didn’t quote the numbers from before 2023, when our defensive turnover percentage was higher than it is this year. But that is a comparison to a National Champion and Final Four teams.

Numbers here: https://barttorvik.com/ncaaw/team-history.php?team=Stanford

BC

Deft and persuasive analysis, BC. Kudos!