2023 Stanford at Hawaii Predictions Thread

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2023 Stanford at Hawaii Predictions Thread - george - 08-20-2023

Hard to believe that in the midst of all this talk of the end of Stanford Football as we know it, we have an actual game coming up. If all this is going away next year, we might as well take inspiration from Major League's Jake Taylor:

Quote:Well then I guess there's only one thing left to do: Win the whole f-ing thing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMJrMijyW_4&t=56s

As a reminder to everyone, please use the widget above to make your predictions. If you only put your prediction in a post to this thread, people will see it, but it won't officially count. I'm curious what kind of engagement we will get in the predictions game this year. Feels a bit like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

RE: 2023 Stanford at Hawaii Predictions Thread - Softball Fan - 08-20-2023

I'm going to wait to vote until a knowledgeable football fan posts a comparison or evaluation of both teams. I don't know anything about the Hawaii team. All I know in general is a road game to start the season with a newly assembled group of players can be problematic at times. The game will be televised on CBS Sports Network and I'll be watching.

Some account holders posted about the devastating effect of crossing time zones. Will that be a factor in this game?

RE: 2023 Stanford at Hawaii Predictions Thread - JeffInCorvallis - 08-20-2023

No QB with meaningful college snaps. Questionable defense. New coach with new system. Crossing time zones. A team with a long history of face-planting in non-conference season openers. Pac-12/10/4 uncertainty and players no doubt with transfer portal ejection seat considerations. Emotional boost from islands devastated by wildfires #MauiStrong. I'm sensing a game that's going to be a lot closer than people are thinking. Hope I'm wrong.

RE: 2023 Stanford at Hawaii Predictions Thread - fullmetal - 08-20-2023

Well, the game kicks off at 8pm PT, so they ought to be awake and ready to go. But yes, it could be a trap game.

RE: 2023 Stanford at Hawaii Predictions Thread - qwerty49 - 08-20-2023

It looks like this will be Hawaii's second game? If I read correctly, they open Aug 26 on the road at Vandy. They then have to fly west and play us 6 days later. That might be chance to see how good they are.

RE: 2023 Stanford at Hawaii Predictions Thread - BayAreaCardinal - 08-20-2023

Outside of opponent travel, Hawai'i does not have a homefield advantage. They play in some high school looking stadium. That favors us. I think Stanford easily wins this game by 10+ points. I'm not underestimating the Bows, rather even though we lost so much heading into the season, there is still a gap in talent between a mid-to-bottom MWC school and Stanford.

RE: 2023 Stanford at Hawaii Predictions Thread - Mick - 08-21-2023

I'll go with 33-25, Stanford.

RE: 2023 Stanford at Hawaii Predictions Thread - marchballer - 08-22-2023

Interesting I haven’t seen any buzz around Stanford football yet. Looks like Ashton Daniels and Justin Lamson look good in early practice.

Surprised to see Ari Patu name not mentioned much on the news headlines so I think he may not be the starter like we assume.

Seems like EJ Smith will take an important role on offense.

But as people who follow Stanford football I feel like I’m still in the dark on this team. Spring Practice was a dud and told us zilch. So I’m going to wait until we get closer and look for more information before making a call here.

RE: 2023 Stanford at Hawaii Predictions Thread - msqueri - 08-22-2023

There is a ton of coverage (especially interviews with players and coaches) on the subscription sites as well as message board discussion. I think people who want to know about Stanford football would be well-served by subscribing to those sites, way more content. For what it's worth, I'll copy below my sense on the depth chart from a few days ago. I'm constantly updating my picture based on all those interviews and other data points but maybe this will spur some discussion:

As with rebuilds of bad teams generally, there's less drama around depth charts than one might assume based on there being so few established returners for a simple reason: we also lack high quality depth. As a result, the separation between positions is relatively easy for the coaches to discern. When I think about our depth chart, there is very little I actually think is up in the air at this point. Some quick hits on the positions as I see them:

QB: I came into camp thinking this was the big drama and totally wide open but data points are consistently pointing to a Lamson-Daniels-Patu pecking order. I haven't closed the book on this yet but that's how I currently see it.

RB: We know it's Smith and Filkins. I feel like I am starting to pick up some whiff of possibility it could actually be Filkins and Smith instead but this is one I feel like I lack insight into. In any case, the realist knows that both will play if healthy and both have a lot to prove in terms of staying healthy. I am eager to see who RB3 is and I wouldn't hazard a guess.

FB: In case folks don't know this they should know this no longer exists in the Stanford offense.

WR: It feels like a top four of Humphreys, Reuben, Bachmeier, and Ayomanor. Not closing the book on competition here but this is what it feels like to me.

TE: Yurosek is arguably the biggest star on the entire team and doesn't need to practice to cement that. I think most assume Roush is next man up but I have my eyes on both Roush and Hawkins.

OL: Reports are that left to right it was Anderson-Mayberry-Rogers-Pale-Leyrer and then Leyrer missed a bunch of practice and Pogorelc slid in. Before Pale emerged Uke was slotted in at right guard but apparently has missed time due to injury and I don't know where that stands or who would be ahead between Pale and Uke if both were healthy. I would assume McLaughlin, Heyer, Maikkula, and Bank (hurt/yet to really compete?) are also in the mix.

DL: The top three seems obviously Phillips, Franklin, and Moi, likely in that (old man seniority) order, which is relevant because of the frequency of nickel. I hope Armitage finds a home at DL and is a useful rotation guy too but at this point would be taking that on faith more than evidence.

OLB: The place to watch because we actually have elite national talent and only so many snaps to go around. I don't know if people appreciate the extent to which only two or three will get significant snaps. This isn't a position that gets a lot of rotation in the Wisconsin defense (or defenses generally). Something will have to give. There have been fascinating tidbits Tafiti has been ahead of Bailey at times, with Keneley the other starter. Cooper looks a bit the odd man out at the moment, which is quite notable given how good he looked in his limited action last year and what a big recruit he was. But Bailey and Tafiti were big recruits too and there's only 2-3 spots.

ILB: Seems like it's ending up where it always seemed it would, Sinclair and Bernadel. Jorgensen seems to continue to hold off younger guys. More buzz for Rose than for other younger guys, but that seems more relevant for 2024 and beyond than this year.

CB: Wright, Manley, and Slocum with Slocum likely the nickel. Seems to be real depth here too as Joshua Thompson is getting some buzz and it's a relatively strong position for the true freshman class.

S: Wyrick and Gilman, case pretty close to closed. I had hoped somebody would push Gilman but instead he is one of the most consistently praised players on the entire roster. One of the underrated competitions might be to be next man up at safety as Porter, Edwards, and Leigber have all gotten some mention.

RE: 2023 Stanford at Hawaii Predictions Thread - Stanfordindians1again - 08-22-2023

NO QB w meaningful snaps

Many new snaps being taken

first games always sloppy

21-17 Trees

RE: 2023 Stanford at Hawaii Predictions Thread - TonyLima - 08-23-2023

(08-20-2023, 10:20 AM)paloalto Wrote: I'm going to wait to vote until a knowledgeable football fan posts a comparison or evaluation of both teams. I don't know anything about the Hawaii team. All I know in general is a road game to start the season with a newly assembled group of players can be problematic at times. The game will be televised on CBS Sports Network and I'll be watching.

Some account holders posted about the devastating effect of crossing time zones. Will that be a factor in this game?

I once spent several years traveling frequently. It's generally accepted that west to east travel across time zones is a more difficult adjustment than east to west. That was certainly my experience (except for the trip to the UK which was a whole different kettle of fish).

RE: 2023 Stanford at Hawaii Predictions Thread - qwerty49 - 08-26-2023

I have one semi-interested eye on Hawaii vs Vandy. It's pretty painful to watch Hawaii's QB -- a step slow, bordering on ponderous. Bailed out by at least 3 nice catches that required his WRs to hit the dirt when they were 10 yds clear of the nearest defender. Threw an endzone pick that was one of those passes that never should have been thrown. Vandy was favored by 17.5 and now leads by 14 in the 2nd half. Vandy has some speed, the 'Bows don't.

And Vandy just got a brobdingnagian homer reversal on a big play.

RE: 2023 Stanford at Hawaii Predictions Thread - MV72018 - 08-26-2023

Strikes me that most Card Boarders are underestimating Hawaii's passing game and overestimating Stanford's defense against the pass.

Prediction: UH: 28, SU: 21.

I hope Coach Taylor's Cardinal squad wins, but my head leads me to believe that it will be tough for the Cardinal to win this game on the road.

RE: 2023 Stanford at Hawaii Predictions Thread - CardinalSagehen - 08-26-2023

Hawaii lost 35-28 at Vandy today.

This compares to the 63-10 drubbing that they took from Vandy last year at home.

It appears that they may have improved.

RE: 2023 Stanford at Hawaii Predictions Thread - SamuelMcF - 08-27-2023

(08-26-2023, 11:04 PM)CardinalSagehen Wrote: Hawaii lost 35-28 at Vandy today.

This compares to the 63-10 drubbing that they took from Vandy last year at home.

It appears that they may have improved.

Vandy also looked significantly worse than last year. Column A, Column B.

RE: 2023 Stanford at Hawaii Predictions Thread - vataha - 08-27-2023

To 82lsju, my apologies for having accidentally co-opted your prediction. Saw the Vandy score and said this game could be toss up. Missed your numbers.

RE: 2023 Stanford at Hawaii Predictions Thread - 82lsju - 08-27-2023

(08-27-2023, 06:40 PM)vataha Wrote: To 82lsju, my apologies for having accidentally co-opted your prediction. Saw the Vandy score and said this game could be toss up. Missed your numbers.

I just hope we are both right!!!! Although I'd de fine if we won by 28+ points!!!!

RE: 2023 Stanford at Hawaii Predictions Thread - ADPinWDC - 08-28-2023

(08-26-2023, 10:37 PM)MV72018 Wrote: Strikes me that most Card Boarders are underestimating Hawaii's passing game and overestimating Stanford's defense against the pass.

Prediction: UH: 28, SU: 21.

I hope Coach Taylor's Cardinal squad wins, but my head leads me to believe that it will be tough for the Cardinal to win this game on the road.

Manley and Wright at CB are both aggressive, hawkish -- I like them for two picks with Schager facing hurries.

WELL... I'll just put it out there: STAN 38; HAWI 20 on the road in Honolulu. Biggest spread on the Board.

OFFENSE
1) I agree that no clarity on QB is the #1 issue, but PART of it is Taylor gaming the Warriors by diminishing who they can focus on.
At least two QBs will play anyway.
2) We want to see what the O-Line can do; fortunately we open against HAWAII and not USC.
So, at LT Pogorelc (Sr), LG T.Mayberry (Jr), C L.Rogers (Sr), RG S.Pale (Fr), and then C.McLaughlin (SR) at RT.
Some senior talent there, not a Do-over.
3) AGREE with the Board here: If they get holes, EJ Smith and jitterbug Filkins can make yardage.
4) TE Yurosek (All-Pac12) and the WRs are VERY GOOD.

I think Taylor will coach a surprisingly good Offensive game because that is what he does. 50-50 Pass/Run.
For the 12th rated team in Pac-12, we still possess an array of weapons.

DEFENSE
Sure, basically Taylor hired the Defensive coaching staff from WISC. Very capable.
Against the Rainbow Warriors I think our Defense is a pleasant surprise.
Excellent edge rushers, some blitzing by potent linebackers (Sinclair, Bernadel).
Collin Wright and S.Manley are very aggressive at CB, and play Man 1-on-1 well.
I expect at least three TOs by this defense.
Watch the transfer Bernadel in the middle of the D; he's hungry and will nail people.

SO, net, the Defense will click sooner, and against RWs will give the ball to the Offense in decent positions.
Turnovers kill Warrior drives. Four sacks on Schager minimum. Make him hurry, produces picks.
We will make some mistakes that lead to points for them, but I think Taylor knows what he is doing,
and he gave the Defensive Coaching staff a long leash.

Let's call it 38 for Cardinal Savages to 20 for the Rainbows-no-War.
We cover the 5 to 7, some say 10 points -- and folks sit up and exclaim, "OK, Taylor is good."

NOTE: None of the odds-makers like us, and they are flinging Hawaii out there as an upset pick to bait the hook.

https://www.docsports.com/free-picks/football/2023/stanford-cardinal-vs-hawaii-warriors-prediction-9-1-2023-college-football-picks-best-bets-odds.html

RE: 2023 Stanford at Hawaii Predictions Thread - Snorlax94 - 08-28-2023

I just finished watching the Vanderbilt-UH game and although I pick Stanford to win 49-21, Hawaii is SCARY, and I'd give them a good 30% chance to win the game outright. They have a poised, 3rd year quarterback with 14 starts. We will have a fresh quarterback taking his first game snap. Heck, we don't even know who that quarterback is.

They run a Run 'n' Shoot which is exactly the kind of offense that used to give Stanford fits, with a quarterback in shotgun, who can run, with 4-5 receivers spreading out the field. Not only have offenses like this (the Air Raid) been a Kryptonite for Stanford in the past, it's an even more nightmarish matchup this year because our secondary is so green. Now we have to cover 5 receivers (though thankfully, so far, only 2 merit special attention. Thank you for the game tape, Vandy!) The were *supposed* to have a 2 headed monster running game but their 1 headed monster is plenty, he is a fast, downhill, runner, which is also the type Stanford would have difficulty with in the past. Let's hope all those legendary Coach Taylor reps include a lot of tackling.

Stanford has a size advantage, a length advantage, a speed advantage, and a specialty teams advantage. Vandy returned a kickoff 97 yards to the house.

If Stanford plays sloppy, if the QB plays like a noob, if the green line lets the UH pass rush befuddle them, Hawaii can neutralize the Stanford offense's advantages. If Stanford's speedy pass rushers can't apply pressure, if the run defense can't stop an explosive back who runs hard, if the secondary can't cover the 4-5 receivers, it's going to be a nightmare of a game, and Hawaii could win 28-14.

But assuming Coach Taylor has gotten the team ready, having watched tape of old Sac State offenses, even in game 1, there should be enough juice to throw Hawaii's defense off-balance, and Stanford's O has enough athleticism and size to shock them. Stanford also has enough speed -- though inexperienced -- on defense to put Schager on his back many times, and force him into some bad, falling duck passes. And assuming specialty teams has a plan, they should be able to account for a +7 to +21 point differential (really!)

So if Stanford can actually play a crisp first game, which they haven't in I can't remember how long, they should win big, 49-21.

RE: 2023 Stanford at Hawaii Predictions Thread - SkiBum80 - 08-29-2023

(08-28-2023, 11:54 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote: I just finished watching the Vanderbilt-UH game and although I pick Stanford to win 49-21, Hawaii is SCARY, and I'd give them a good 30% chance to win the game outright. They have a poised, 3rd year quarterback with 14 starts. We will have a fresh quarterback taking his first game snap. Heck, we don't even know who that quarterback is.

They run a Run 'n' Shoot which is exactly the kind of offense that used to give Stanford fits, with a quarterback in shotgun, who can run, with 4-5 receivers spreading out the field. Not only have offenses like this (the Air Raid) been a Kryptonite for Stanford in the past, it's an even more nightmarish matchup this year because our secondary is so green. Now we have to cover 5 receivers (though thankfully, so far, only 2 merit special attention. Thank you for the game tape, Vandy!) The were *supposed* to have a 2 headed monster running game but their 1 headed monster is plenty, he is a fast, downhill, runner, which is also the type Stanford would have difficulty with in the past. Let's hope all those legendary Coach Taylor reps include a lot of tackling.

Stanford has a size advantage, a length advantage, a speed advantage, and a specialty teams advantage. Vandy returned a kickoff 97 yards to the house.

If Stanford plays sloppy, if the QB plays like a noob, if the green line lets the UH pass rush befuddle them, Hawaii can neutralize the Stanford offense's advantages. If Stanford's speedy pass rushers can't apply pressure, if the run defense can't stop an explosive back who runs hard, if the secondary can't cover the 4-5 receivers, it's going to be a nightmare of a game, and Hawaii could win 28-14.

But assuming Coach Taylor has gotten the team ready, having watched tape of old Sac State offenses, even in game 1, there should be enough juice to throw Hawaii's defense off-balance, and Stanford's O has enough athleticism and size to shock them. Stanford also has enough speed -- though inexperienced -- on defense to put Schager on his back many times, and force him into some bad, falling duck passes. And assuming specialty teams has a plan, they should be able to account for a +7 to +21 point differential (really!)

So if Stanford can actually play a crisp first game, which they haven't in I can't remember how long, they should win big, 49-21.

So basically we could win 49-21 ("We're back!"), or lose 28-14 (a slow motion train wreck), or anything in between?
Actually, that sounds about right to me, due to the massive uncertainty of our all new coaches, new schemes, extreme personnel turnover, inexperienced players, no clear depth chart, possibly already injured players, etc.