Sunday afternoon thoughts - Notre Dame

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Sunday afternoon thoughts - Notre Dame - msqueri - 10-11-2026

1. What is there to say at this point? I'm compulsive in my Stanford mania (there can only be clinical terms for those of us who subject ourselves to this) so I'll find some words. But those who've asked me "what's the point" and "why dissect numbers when the only thing that matters is____" (some cite culture, some cite institutional apathy) are not wrong. My diving into the minutiae should not be taken as me losing sight of the forest for the trees. Our forest is a hellscape of felled and rotted husks. There is no one thing where this program is presentable, much less serious. We need to be stripped to the studs and built up just as much if not more than all the times we said that when the team was coached by Shaw, Taylor, or Reich. Tens of millions of dollars thrown at the problem with this culture and coaching would be wasteful. An army of transfers will hopefully make us look better but best case scenario absent fundamental rethink of leadership may be rising to a Colorado/Boston College/Rutgers kind of laughingstock. I don't envy Andrew Luck or Tavita Pritchard right now. All they know to do is "the next right thing," and what else could one do in this situation? The powers-that-be at Stanford and the donors who wield some influence need to unsentimentally asseess whether our leadership is fit for purpose. The things we've tried the last year and the last two years and the last five years plainly aren't.

2. We're halfway through the season so there's time to fundamentally change the current snapshot. We can debate where this season ranks in the rogues' gallery of worst ever seasons once the clock hits zero in the SMU game. To the extent we're talking now, those who mock musing this might be the worst ever, merely due to there having been zero and one win seasons, may want to consider things like strength of conference and margin of defeat. This team is building a resume. We now have the worst back-to-back humiliations for us going back a hundred years. Before this month started less than two weeks ago, Stanford had lost by 50 points only four times since World War II. We've now done it in consecutive weeks. We've had games in consecutive weeks worse than any single game in the 1960, 1983, and 2006 seasons that combined for two wins. The 2026 team is now SP+ #124, entering the chat with 2021 Kansas and 2022 Colorado as the worst power teams in the modern college football era. Closest thing to exculpatory: Sagarin actually moved us up on the basis of yesterday's results across the nation, now #98, which would still be among our worst teams but not front of the desultory pack.

3. Stats and eye test unify in a game like this, as in too many games recently, to roundly reject Stanford as even belonging on the field. This game had the maximum amount of garbage time calculable by the BCF Toys definition, as the entire second half fell beyond eight times the remaining loser possessions plus one being less than the deficit. If BCF Toys allowed garbage time to start in the first half, our mathematical elimination came with 1:06 remaining in the first half when we punted on 4th and 2 from our 32. That ugly picture means Stanford scored zero points per non-garbage drive and gave up 4.625 based on the strict criteria and 5.29 in essence. This was the first time since the first game of the New World Order, 2021 Kansas State, where we got shut out in meaningful play. This is now four times in seven games we've been rocked by a pick the score kind of margin, and a fifth was a 28 point loss to a fairly middling Duke team. The negative 3.49 yards per play margin means that the three least competitive games of our last 23 have all been in the last five games. Pritchard's level of failure is almost impossible to overstate.

4. The defense put up more of a fight from a scoreboard perspective than it did last week against Wake Forest, earlier this year against Miami, or last year against Notre Dame. That is really a damning by faint praise stat. We gave up more than eight yards per play, the ninth most in this 66 game era and second time plumbing those depths this season. For those who need a silver lining in every cloud, Notre Dame thrashes opponents through the air so, believe it or not, we were under their averages in yards, yards per attempt, and passer rating and at the median in passing touchdowns. We defended their passing game comparably to pretty good pass defense North Carolina. I was going to say that it's seemed at times this year that we are relatively less awful in pass defense than other phases, though upon checking the midpoint national rankings in pass efficiency defense I see that we are 130th (our best major category is pass efficiency offense....#112!). Regardless of what level of ineptitude one assigns to the pass defense, it's swamped by the joke we saw in run run defense, the worst game for us in all major statistical run defense respects since the 2023 Notre Dame game (Notre Dame has had two games in that interval romping like this). This is where I want to see pride and effort from the defense going forward. Aside from #1 in America in yards per carry Louisville, we play a lot of craptastic run games going forward. A team has to be able to stop the run against Elon, Cal, SMU, and Virginia Tech. Show some pride. You're getting paid professional salaries for god's sake.

5. The offense has now had 4.6 yards per play or less in four of the last five games. Notre Dame is one of the top defenses in the country and we actually gained half a yard per play more than the Irish norm allowed. A hopeless optimist could argue that's a bright spot - it's the most competitive we've been this year relative to a defense's quality aside from the Georgia Tech game. But it came with Notre Dame not playing its two best defensive players. Can't put much lipstick on a pig that can't score a point in meaningful play against a team with its two most luminary superstars in street clothes. The real bottom line for the offense is how typical ineptitude is for us - this is the 23rd fewest yards per play we've had in this 66 game era. That's a read it again stat: for five and a half years, a third of the time we've done worse on a per play basis than a game we couldn't score a single non-garbage point. The passing game was smack dab on Notre Dame's season-long yards per attempt allowed average, kind of grouped in a feckless bunch with Rice, Michigan State, and Purdue, a middling performance for our passing game relative to opponent on the year. It seems to me Notre Dame has played bad passing offenses and, especially with Leonard Moore out, is not a stellar pass defense. Plus we only had five passing first downs. Not a passing game to write home about for us. Our run game is hapless against everybody (dead last 138th in yards per carry). That said, Notre Dame is spectacular in run defense and we actually did better than everybody they've faced other than North Carolina. That is an area of progress compared to our norm that was not visually apparent in a game we only rushed for two first downs. What I want to see is the guys up front play with some pride and really open up holes against Elon, which is far from assured in a game pitting the dead last FBS run game against a top four FCS run defense.

RE: Sunday afternoon thoughts - Notre Dame - msqueri - 10-11-2026

6. Warren's regression to the mean continues, though I think subjectively most of us feel like it's hard to judge him with so much going wrong around him. If Ashton Daniels can be #84 and #85 in Total QBR at Stanford and #27 at Florida State, with another former matriculator Bear Bachmeier #28, it's pretty obvious the impact the overall milieu can have. Ours is negative, to put it mildly. That apology out of the way, Warren yesterday was 96th of 117 QBs in Total QBR this week, currently falling behind the Duke game as the worst rating of his year and the second worst of his career. He's now 86th on the season, so halfway through this is basically identical to a Daniels season. I have seen enough from High and Nico Brown to exempt them from the harshest reflections on our milieu - and never lose sight of these relative bright spots, along with Prongos (though yesterday wasn't good for him), being transfers. High was the one guy yesterday who moved the chains more than once (what a pathetic stat), though he had two costly penalties (one bone-headed and deeply selfish and another an aggressive call by the refs). Too much damage on the penalties to be our player of the game, but he's in the running for player of the season. High is just ahead of CJ Williams' per game receiving pace for last year, amazingly/depressingly the only player on the team who is on any sort of notable national leaderboard (currently 66th in receiving yards per game). [Moving the chains (first down leaderboard): High (2), Ford, Onovughe, Blackburn, Hall, Nico Brown, Chris Davis Jr.] Shout-out to House for being graded the lone good game on the offense by PFF's view. Pale has been bad every game and in this game took a first down off the board with a hold. Halfway through the season, PFF assesses the strongest links on offense to be Nico Brown, High, and Prongos and the weakest Pale, Hoitink (now second string), and Hall.

7. The box score, like one's eyeballs, did not make the defense look good. On an individual level, only the linebackers Galvan and Mattingly show up numerous times making positive plays, five each including most notably Galvan's tackle for loss to force a field goal. Unfortunately, eyeballs and PFF corroboration point to those two, along with another sometime-playmaker in Green, as having more bad plays than good plays. PFF viewed Bryant and McAllister as the bright spots of the defense with Briehler and BMO as decent. Since Bryant had a non-garbage pass breakup plus a stop in garbage time, he is this week's one eyed king in the land of the blind. Halfway through the season, PFF assesses the strongest links on defense to be BMO, Nicholson (out), McAllister (not a ton of playing time), and Kaminski and the weakest links Davis, Galvan, and Mattingly. Those latter three along with Pale on offense are in nightmare fuel sub-50 grade territory.

8. At least Aidan Flintoft came to play (I was going to shout out the unit but they gave up a big return). Flintoft had net punts of 35 to the 42 (bad), 47 to the 30 (good), 46 to the 1 (perfect), 11 to our own 39 (terrible result due to a massive return), 51 to the 19 (great), 43 to the 25 (solid after a good return, albeit the surrender of the game not to go for it), 53 to the 29 (great), and 47 to the 10 (great). This week in Chris Davis Jr. taking kicks back to give up yards compared to just taking a fair catch, Davbis had returns of 14 yards to give up five yards, 18 yards to give up six yards, 27 yards to gain two yards, and 23 yards to lose one yard but then a hold made it a 12 yard loss compared to a fair catch. Kickoffs are the worst plays of the game for Stanford. We go backwards. Put Daniel Ogiozee back there and start on the 25 each time at this rate. Tate and Kuo had teams coverage tackles. Tre Williams and Giuliano had holds. Halfway through the season, it doesn't seem obvious we've fixed the special teams problems that dogged us last year.

9. (Relatively) Distinguished in Defeat: Kahlil House, Leroy Bryant, Aidan Flintoft, Cory Robinson

10. There may have never been a more well-timed and needed get right game. It feels like a gift to get an FCS team coming across the country so we can get back in the win column and do damage control on bombed out player confidence and program morale. We have played so poorly that cynics will question whether we're even guaranteed to beat the Phoenix. Sagarin would have us 25 point favorites and even using the contender-for-worst-modern power team SP+ ranking for us we'd be favored by 19-20. That equates to an 88-94 percent chance of victory. Across all of college football, Power Four teams vs. FCS roadkill (what it's become in a transfer portal world that truly amounts to castes) are on a 176 game win streak. The last time a Power Four team lost such a game was.....Stanford vs. Sacramento State. If we bookend that streak that would truly be a new all-time low. I am pretty positive we win. I hope we win by 28+ and things can feel a little bit less low than they are now. If we can start the second half of the schedule with our third win, there's a chance, perhaps, to optically save something. I'd still have a lot of doubts about our vision and path. But to date we've played two top five teams and our median opponent is 36, so a second half with zero top 30 opponents and a 55.5 median opponent is far easier. If we have the culture and camaraderie we crowed about all year, it is in our power to get four or five wins, as bad as it's looked to date. Halfway into the schedule the epitaph of the season is not set in stone. This might be the worst team ever. It might be a very bumpy start to something that gives us a pulse for the much-anticipated awakening to the modern era necessity of big transfer hauls. The guys that get paid to play and coach this game have it in their power to decide which it is. Show some pride.

RE: Sunday afternoon thoughts - Notre Dame - needle - 10-11-2026

Matt Rose didn't play Saturday.

RE: Sunday afternoon thoughts - Notre Dame - msqueri - 10-11-2026

(10-11-2026, 02:16 PM)needle Wrote: Matt Rose didn't play Saturday.

Yeah thanks, I knew that, meant to say Mattingly. Rose may or may not ever play for us again.

RE: Sunday afternoon thoughts - Notre Dame - KartyFan - 10-11-2026

(10-11-2026, 02:24 PM)msqueri Wrote:
(10-11-2026, 02:16 PM)needle Wrote: Matt Rose didn't play Saturday.

Yeah thanks, I knew that, meant to say Mattingly. Rose may or may not ever play for us again.

Do you know more you can share?

Strange that he was not on the Wake injury report all week and then didn't play. You'd think it wouldn't be something that serious (assuming injury). But freak accidents happen.

RE: Sunday afternoon thoughts - Notre Dame - needle - 10-11-2026

(10-11-2026, 02:24 PM)msqueri Wrote:
(10-11-2026, 02:16 PM)needle Wrote: Matt Rose didn't play Saturday.

Yeah thanks, I knew that, meant to say Mattingly. Rose may or may not ever play for us again.

Sad to hear.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

RE: Sunday afternoon thoughts - Notre Dame - msqueri - 10-11-2026

(10-11-2026, 02:27 PM)KartyFan Wrote:
(10-11-2026, 02:24 PM)msqueri Wrote:
(10-11-2026, 02:16 PM)needle Wrote: Matt Rose didn't play Saturday.

Yeah thanks, I knew that, meant to say Mattingly. Rose may or may not ever play for us again.

Do you know more you can share?

Strange that he was not on the Wake injury report all week and then didn't play. You'd think it wouldn't be something that serious (assuming injury). But freak accidents happen.

Yeah. Some more has been posted on CSR but it wasn't originally my info and it's not really my thing to spread injury/rehab rumors, reference above about as far as I typically go.

RE: Sunday afternoon thoughts - Notre Dame - newguy - 10-11-2026

(10-11-2026, 02:32 PM)msqueri Wrote: Yeah. Some more has been posted on CSR but it wasn't originally my info and it's not really my thing to spread injury/rehab rumors, reference above about as far as I typically go.

if he's out for the season, we may not win any games after Elon.

RE: Sunday afternoon thoughts - Notre Dame - msqueri - 10-11-2026

(10-11-2026, 02:54 PM)newguy Wrote:
(10-11-2026, 02:32 PM)msqueri Wrote: Yeah. Some more has been posted on CSR but it wasn't originally my info and it's not really my thing to spread injury/rehab rumors, reference above about as far as I typically go.

if he's out for the season, we may not win any games after Elon.

We certainly may not. Analytics would predict one more though. The second half of the schedule is easy, with NC State especially winnable, Cal and SMU live games, and all of the games more than negligible chances. 4-8 still the base case for the season. We don't play a Sagarin top 30 team the rest of the way as things currently stand. Very front-loaded schedule.

RE: Sunday afternoon thoughts - Notre Dame - Row80Critic - 10-11-2026

Rose has an estimated NIL value of half a million, probably more for the right team. Will he come back? Would you?

The post-game presser gave no reason for hope this year. In fairness, what can they say...? With the current players and current coaches, Elon might be a nail-biter. :(

RE: Sunday afternoon thoughts - Notre Dame - msqueri - 10-11-2026

(10-11-2026, 04:02 PM)Row80Critic Wrote: Rose has an estimated NIL value of half a million, probably more for the right team. Will he come back? Would you?

The post-game presser gave no reason for hope this year. In fairness, what can they say...? With the current players and current coaches, Elon might be a nail-biter. :(

The typical range for a Power Four LB is 300K-700K but Rose was top 6 percent of Power Four starters last year and smack dab middling this year and the price keeps rising every year. I think he would be 700K+ next year if he can get another year of eligibility.

If it were me, I would not play football at Stanford. I am hoping Luck and Pritchard can be persuasive enough and overpay enough to get players to play for us despite all rationality.

RE: Sunday afternoon thoughts - Notre Dame - BostonCard - 10-11-2026

(10-11-2026, 01:34 PM)msqueri Wrote: This week in Chris Davis Jr. taking kicks back to give up yards compared to just taking a fair catch, Davbis had returns of 14 yards to give up five yards, 18 yards to give up six yards, 27 yards to gain two yards, and 23 yards to lose one yard but then a hold made it a 12 yard loss compared to a fair catch. Kickoffs are the worst plays of the game for Stanford. We go backwards. Put Daniel Ogiozee back there and start on the 25 each time at this rate. Tate and Kuo had teams coverage tackles. Tre Williams and Giuliano had holds. Halfway through the season, it doesn't seem obvious we've fixed the special teams problems that dogged us last year.

I'm going to disagree with you here. The point value of a couple of yards on our own territory is approximately 0 so you are not fighting for field position. If we wind up on the 23 versus the 25 we haven't really given up anything, since this offense is really not going to score anyways (nor would a kickoff return to the 30 help much either. Going for the return is not about whether we wind up a bit ahead of the 25 or a bit behind. You are punching a lottery ticket that the returner will break a big return and take it all the way and produces 7 points, so the tradeoff is, say a 1% chance at a kickoff return for a touchdown versus a small yard penalty the other times, but since we scored 0 ppd in non-garbage time the field position did not matter an iota.

BC

RE: Sunday afternoon thoughts - Notre Dame - Jamesy - 10-11-2026

(10-11-2026, 04:02 PM)Row80Critic Wrote: Rose has an estimated NIL value of half a million, probably more for the right team. Will he come back? Would you?

The post-game presser gave no reason for hope this year. In fairness, what can they say...? With the current players and current coaches, Elon might be a nail-biter. :(

I don't think he has any more eligibility. He is already a 5th year and there's no more injury redshirts with the 5 for 5 system now in place.

RE: Sunday afternoon thoughts - Notre Dame - MV72018 - 10-12-2026

(10-11-2026, 02:54 PM)newguy Wrote:
(10-11-2026, 02:32 PM)msqueri Wrote: Yeah. Some more has been posted on CSR but it wasn't originally my info and it's not really my thing to spread injury/rehab rumors, reference above about as far as I typically go.

if he's out for the season, we may not win any games after Elon.

So you assume that we will beat Elon? LOL!!!!

RE: Sunday afternoon thoughts - Notre Dame - SkiBum80 - 10-12-2026

Stanford football is highlighting that we are a really good Academic university.

RE: Sunday afternoon thoughts - Notre Dame - rogpodge - 10-12-2026

https://x.com/toga_party_/status/2109359753788788870

Warren didn't play poorly.

But Stanford went from the worst success rate differential to 3rd. Progress?

https://x.com/statsowar/status/2109633963769905405

RE: Sunday afternoon thoughts - Notre Dame - needle - 10-12-2026

(10-12-2026, 11:18 AM)rogpodge Wrote: https://x.com/toga_party_/status/2109359753788788870

Warren didn't play poorly.

I almost did a literal spit take.

Warren's Raw QBR was 5.7. This is a measure of quarterback efficiency that does NOT adjust for the strength of the opponent.

So far this season, only one ACC quarterback, Clemson's Christopher Vizzina, has had a lower single-game QBR, against LSU. He was benched in the second quarter.

RE: Sunday afternoon thoughts - Notre Dame - jacket3ree - 10-12-2026

(10-12-2026, 10:37 AM)SkiBum80 Wrote: Stanford football is highlighting that we are a really good Academic university.

Not at all. Stanford football is highlighting that we suck at football.

RE: Sunday afternoon thoughts - Notre Dame - SkiBum80 - 10-12-2026

(10-12-2026, 12:07 PM)jacket3ree Wrote:
(10-12-2026, 10:37 AM)SkiBum80 Wrote: Stanford football is highlighting that we are a really good Academic university.

Not at all. Stanford football is highlighting that we suck at football.

Sorry I forgot the <sarc> .. </sarc> tags.
Similar to asking "How's the fish special today?" and hearing "Well the steak is really good!"

RE: Sunday afternoon thoughts - Notre Dame - jacket3ree - 10-12-2026

(10-12-2026, 12:38 PM)SkiBum80 Wrote:
(10-12-2026, 12:07 PM)jacket3ree Wrote:
(10-12-2026, 10:37 AM)SkiBum80 Wrote: Stanford football is highlighting that we are a really good Academic university.

Not at all. Stanford football is highlighting that we suck at football.

Sorry I forgot the <sarc> .. </sarc> tags.
Similar to asking "How's the fish special today?" and hearing "Well the steak is really good!"

Figured as much but how many in the Stanford community think this way? I suppose all the matters is whether the people who count (i.e. give money) think this way.