It'll be an early one tomorrow, folks--7:00am Pacific--but darn it, it's a national semifinal, so get thee to a computer screen to live stream the match or follow the live stats. Next up are the ACC regular-season champions, the Duke Blue Devils, who got here by beating Oregon 4-2 in the Second Round, and then not being really challenged since, beating #14 Northwestern easily and then knocking off #11 Texas Tech (who appear to have used up all they had in upsetting their in-state rival, #6 Texas). Here's a closer look at the matchup:
Duke Preview
Duke (27-3) won the ACC regular-season title, and has just three losses on the year, twice to North Carolina (in ITA Indoors and in the ACC tournament final) and once to Georgia Tech. They boast wins over Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina (in conference play), Michigan, Miami, and Florida State, so they certainly have earned their #3 ranking from the ITA (the same ranking they have from the USTA). Duke is a slight favorite according to the ELO-type ratings at slam.tennis (we have a 44% chance of winning, though that's better than our 25% chance of beating UNC, so I'll take it). UTR sees Stanford as a slight favorite, however, as Stanford is #1 there and Duke #4, but Duke is one of the toughest matchups for Stanford on an individual basis (Stanford is only favored in three singles matches--only Pepperdine was a worse matchup at this tournament). Here are the lineups, with UTR advantage/disadvantage noted in parentheses:
1. #15 Michaela Gordon vs. #6 Samantha Harris (Gordon leads by 0.21)
2. #40 Melissa Lord vs. #55 Meible Chi (Lord leads by 0.14)
3. #93 Caroline Lampl vs. #116 Kaitlyn McCarthy (Lampl trails by 0.01)
4. #43 Emily Arbuthnott vs. #28 Kelly Chen (Arbuthnott trails by 0.07)
5. #96 Janice Shin vs. #84 Ellyse Hamlin (Shin trails by 0.16)
6. #102 Emma Higuchi vs. Hannah Zhao (Higuchi leads by 0.52)
And at doubles:
1. #3 Arbuthnott/Gordon vs. #9 McCarthy/Hamlin
2. #84 Lampl/Yee vs. #6 Chen/Harris
3. Lord/Shin vs. Chi/Zhao
There has been a great deal of lineup movement this year for Duke, so you get some ranking oddities like the #4 player in the lineup being ranked in the top 30 (Chen was the 4th-ranked freshman in the preseason rankings, behind Gordon at #2, Wazzu's Bayerlova at #3, and ahead of UNC's Sanford at #6 and a pair of Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at #7 and #8). Chen had an excellent fall and has only 1 dual match loss this year, so Arbuthnott will have her hands full there. Really, that 3-4-5 stretch from Duke, McCarthy-Chen-Hamlin, is pretty daunting. Chen has won 19 straight, but Hamlin has won 11 straight, and McCarthy 8 of her last 9, so we really need Gordon to come through tomorrow.
Recipe for Beating Duke
In looking at their close matches, win or lose, a pattern starts to emerge for teams that have success against Duke. Win doubles, and then get wins at #1 and #6 before finding one somewhere else in the lineup. It's odd to think of the #6 player in the country as a weak point in the lineup, and she's most certainly not, but when Duke loses, Harris has been on the wrong side of things. So, perhaps that's the roadmap. That said, Zhao has recorded wins the last two rounds at #6, but that may be partly due to relatively weak depth on the Northwestern and Texas Tech rosters. She's young--she graduated from high school a semester early so she could enroll at Duke and participate this season--and I just don't think she's going to pull what would be a considerable upset based on UTR alone, not even considering how great Higuchi has been.
Common Opponents
North Carolina: Stanford won 4-1; Duke won 5-2 but lost 4-1 and 4-2
Georgia: Stanford won 4-0; Duke won 4-3 (Duke lost doubles, lost at #1 and #6)
Washington: Stanford won 4-2 and 4-0; Duke won 4-2 (Duke lost doubles and at #6; Harris was down a break in the third at #1 when the match was clinched)
Michigan: Stanford won 4-0; Duke won 4-1
Oregon: Stanford won 6-1; Duke won 4-2 (Duke lost at #2 and #6; #1 went unfinished)
TCU: both teams won 4-0
A Closer Look at UNC-Duke
Because playing UNC is so fresh in our minds, it's useful to consider how the three Duke-UNC matches have gone this year. Both UNC and Duke shuffled their lineups throughout the year, limiting the utility of the earlier two matches, so the ACC tournament final may be the most instructive. In that one, Duke finally took the doubles point from UNC (UNC won doubles the first two matches), but went nowhere fast in singles. Here's how singles went in that match, with the Stanford-UNC result in parentheses:
1. Jones (UNC) d. Harris (Duke) 6-1, 6-0 (Jones led Gordon 7-6, 1-2)
2. Sanford (UNC) d. Chi (Duke) 7-6, 7-5 (Lord d. Sanford, 6-4, 6-1)
3. Daavettila (UNC) d. McCarthy (Duke) 5-7, 6-3, 7-5 (Daavettila led Lampl, 6-4, 5-2)
4. Chen (Duke) vs. Graham (UNC), 7-5, 4-6, 6-6 (6-6), unfinished (Arbuthnott d. Graham 6-3, 6-1)
5. Hamlin (Duke) d. Aney (UNC) 6-2, 7-6 (Shin d. Aney 6-3, 6-2)
6. Ouellet-Pizer (UNC) d. Zhao (Duke) 6-4, 1-6, 6-2 (Higuchi d. Ouellet-Pizer, 6-1, 6-4)
The result at #1 was shocking, given that Jones needed a third-set tiebreaker to beat Harris a few weeks earlier, but let's hope this Harris is the one that shows up tomorrow, not the one who earned a top 10 ranking!
Prediction:
Stanford wins, taking the doubles point, going up 2-0 behind Higuchi, and having Lord stretch it to 3-0 before we finally take a loss, and it's Shin at #5. The remaining matches are all close, and we might take another loss, but Gordon ends the suspense by clinching at #1. But Lampl's match is a coin flip and Arbuthnott has a heck of a battle in front of her, so don't be shocked if it's 3-3 with one tightly-contested match on court somewhere among that group. This one feels like it'll be a battle, but I've been expecting that the last three rounds. It'll be closer, but I think our depth is just too much.
While Duke has a good resume, their path to this match has been surprisingly easy. Stanford's has, too, of course, but the difference is that Stanford has played three very good teams (a should-have-been-seeded Michigan, the #1 team in the country per ITA/USTA, and the #3 team according to UTR), while Duke has cruised against lesser competition. Interestingly, Duke's toughest match in the NCAA tournament was the second round match vs. Oregon, where Oregon had tied the match 2-2 and had a battle going at #1 before falling to Duke's superior depth.
Wait, how do we watch again?
Link for live video: http://www.wakeforestsports.com/ncaatennis/. Stanford-Duke will be on the Lower Courts, while Vanderbilt-Georgia Tech will be on at the same time on the Leighton Family Courts.
Live stats: http://statbroadcast.com/events/central.php?tid=778
Duke Preview
Duke (27-3) won the ACC regular-season title, and has just three losses on the year, twice to North Carolina (in ITA Indoors and in the ACC tournament final) and once to Georgia Tech. They boast wins over Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina (in conference play), Michigan, Miami, and Florida State, so they certainly have earned their #3 ranking from the ITA (the same ranking they have from the USTA). Duke is a slight favorite according to the ELO-type ratings at slam.tennis (we have a 44% chance of winning, though that's better than our 25% chance of beating UNC, so I'll take it). UTR sees Stanford as a slight favorite, however, as Stanford is #1 there and Duke #4, but Duke is one of the toughest matchups for Stanford on an individual basis (Stanford is only favored in three singles matches--only Pepperdine was a worse matchup at this tournament). Here are the lineups, with UTR advantage/disadvantage noted in parentheses:
1. #15 Michaela Gordon vs. #6 Samantha Harris (Gordon leads by 0.21)
2. #40 Melissa Lord vs. #55 Meible Chi (Lord leads by 0.14)
3. #93 Caroline Lampl vs. #116 Kaitlyn McCarthy (Lampl trails by 0.01)
4. #43 Emily Arbuthnott vs. #28 Kelly Chen (Arbuthnott trails by 0.07)
5. #96 Janice Shin vs. #84 Ellyse Hamlin (Shin trails by 0.16)
6. #102 Emma Higuchi vs. Hannah Zhao (Higuchi leads by 0.52)
And at doubles:
1. #3 Arbuthnott/Gordon vs. #9 McCarthy/Hamlin
2. #84 Lampl/Yee vs. #6 Chen/Harris
3. Lord/Shin vs. Chi/Zhao
There has been a great deal of lineup movement this year for Duke, so you get some ranking oddities like the #4 player in the lineup being ranked in the top 30 (Chen was the 4th-ranked freshman in the preseason rankings, behind Gordon at #2, Wazzu's Bayerlova at #3, and ahead of UNC's Sanford at #6 and a pair of Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at #7 and #8). Chen had an excellent fall and has only 1 dual match loss this year, so Arbuthnott will have her hands full there. Really, that 3-4-5 stretch from Duke, McCarthy-Chen-Hamlin, is pretty daunting. Chen has won 19 straight, but Hamlin has won 11 straight, and McCarthy 8 of her last 9, so we really need Gordon to come through tomorrow.
Recipe for Beating Duke
In looking at their close matches, win or lose, a pattern starts to emerge for teams that have success against Duke. Win doubles, and then get wins at #1 and #6 before finding one somewhere else in the lineup. It's odd to think of the #6 player in the country as a weak point in the lineup, and she's most certainly not, but when Duke loses, Harris has been on the wrong side of things. So, perhaps that's the roadmap. That said, Zhao has recorded wins the last two rounds at #6, but that may be partly due to relatively weak depth on the Northwestern and Texas Tech rosters. She's young--she graduated from high school a semester early so she could enroll at Duke and participate this season--and I just don't think she's going to pull what would be a considerable upset based on UTR alone, not even considering how great Higuchi has been.
Common Opponents
North Carolina: Stanford won 4-1; Duke won 5-2 but lost 4-1 and 4-2
Georgia: Stanford won 4-0; Duke won 4-3 (Duke lost doubles, lost at #1 and #6)
Washington: Stanford won 4-2 and 4-0; Duke won 4-2 (Duke lost doubles and at #6; Harris was down a break in the third at #1 when the match was clinched)
Michigan: Stanford won 4-0; Duke won 4-1
Oregon: Stanford won 6-1; Duke won 4-2 (Duke lost at #2 and #6; #1 went unfinished)
TCU: both teams won 4-0
A Closer Look at UNC-Duke
Because playing UNC is so fresh in our minds, it's useful to consider how the three Duke-UNC matches have gone this year. Both UNC and Duke shuffled their lineups throughout the year, limiting the utility of the earlier two matches, so the ACC tournament final may be the most instructive. In that one, Duke finally took the doubles point from UNC (UNC won doubles the first two matches), but went nowhere fast in singles. Here's how singles went in that match, with the Stanford-UNC result in parentheses:
1. Jones (UNC) d. Harris (Duke) 6-1, 6-0 (Jones led Gordon 7-6, 1-2)
2. Sanford (UNC) d. Chi (Duke) 7-6, 7-5 (Lord d. Sanford, 6-4, 6-1)
3. Daavettila (UNC) d. McCarthy (Duke) 5-7, 6-3, 7-5 (Daavettila led Lampl, 6-4, 5-2)
4. Chen (Duke) vs. Graham (UNC), 7-5, 4-6, 6-6 (6-6), unfinished (Arbuthnott d. Graham 6-3, 6-1)
5. Hamlin (Duke) d. Aney (UNC) 6-2, 7-6 (Shin d. Aney 6-3, 6-2)
6. Ouellet-Pizer (UNC) d. Zhao (Duke) 6-4, 1-6, 6-2 (Higuchi d. Ouellet-Pizer, 6-1, 6-4)
The result at #1 was shocking, given that Jones needed a third-set tiebreaker to beat Harris a few weeks earlier, but let's hope this Harris is the one that shows up tomorrow, not the one who earned a top 10 ranking!
Prediction:
Stanford wins, taking the doubles point, going up 2-0 behind Higuchi, and having Lord stretch it to 3-0 before we finally take a loss, and it's Shin at #5. The remaining matches are all close, and we might take another loss, but Gordon ends the suspense by clinching at #1. But Lampl's match is a coin flip and Arbuthnott has a heck of a battle in front of her, so don't be shocked if it's 3-3 with one tightly-contested match on court somewhere among that group. This one feels like it'll be a battle, but I've been expecting that the last three rounds. It'll be closer, but I think our depth is just too much.
While Duke has a good resume, their path to this match has been surprisingly easy. Stanford's has, too, of course, but the difference is that Stanford has played three very good teams (a should-have-been-seeded Michigan, the #1 team in the country per ITA/USTA, and the #3 team according to UTR), while Duke has cruised against lesser competition. Interestingly, Duke's toughest match in the NCAA tournament was the second round match vs. Oregon, where Oregon had tied the match 2-2 and had a battle going at #1 before falling to Duke's superior depth.
Wait, how do we watch again?
Link for live video: http://www.wakeforestsports.com/ncaatennis/. Stanford-Duke will be on the Lower Courts, while Vanderbilt-Georgia Tech will be on at the same time on the Leighton Family Courts.
Live stats: http://statbroadcast.com/events/central.php?tid=778
