(03-10-2020, 10:52 AM)burger Wrote: (03-10-2020, 10:38 AM)BostonCard Wrote: Sounds like Democrats and Republicans are united in not liking Trump's proposed stimulus (my personal opinion is that with the 10-year treasury at 0.5%, some fiscal stimulus may be warranted, and I think payroll holidays make sense)
BC
I think most everyone is in agreement that some stimulus is a good idea. The question is how to get it to those who do (or soon will) need it most. I'm thinking about servers, bartenders, drivers, etc. who stand a good chance of losing income or losing their jobs outright if people stop going out or are legally prohibited from doing so. For those people, a small tax cut does nothing. Ditto for all the contractors and gig workers.
A much better idea is to just send checks to everyone. Ultimately, I think something like this has to happen, otherwise we're soon going to end up with a of immense proportions number of evictions and foreclosures. There are loads of people who are one or two missed paychecks away from homelessness. Tax cuts won't help them.
I wouldn't say everyone agrees stimulus is a good idea, but if I were to recommend a package, it should focus on encouraging behaviors that would decrease the spread of virus.
1) I'd create a national sick leave for employees, and make it permanent. Guaranteed sick leave could save many lives every year.
2) I'd temporarily increase unemployment benefits. A lot of people in hospitality and service industries could lose their jobs. If we paid more unemployment and increased the duration of benefits and told people to hunker down, they'd be able to do so.
3) If a #3 was needed, I'd find a way to mitigate any supply shock. China could become reinfected again and again over the next two years. If a factory can't make widgets because certain raw materials or subassemblies aren't available, targeted programs can try to help businesses get what they need to continue and grow.
4) I do think some relief should come to the hospitality and related industries at some point, but first I would structure it around incentivizing reducing travel and making travel safer. As long as there is a pandemic, all flights to or from growing areas of transmission should be refundable. All hotel stays to or from areas of transmission should be refundable. Cruises should be refundable. Then, the government can look at relief to offset these added restrictions.
Also, the cruise industry needs to be more heavily regulated, permanently. That one's been kind of obvious for many years.
Yet somehow I think what the government will propose is to line the pockets of hotel owners and large corporations, who are already wealthy and can weather a slowdown, and if anything may encourage travel, rather than trying to reduce it. The only part of a payroll holiday I agree with is that it will provide some relief to small business owners, many of him will be hit hard, but I think that aid should be more targeted. For starters, you could limit the payroll holiday to businesses with fewer than 50 employees. Google doesn't need a tax cut, they aren't going to go bankrupt because of this.