[82 Card]

Californians should be planting vegetables right now.  If you don't have a yard, plant in containers.  You can buy starts to cut the harvest time.  You will be harvesting food in a few weeks.  It's too cold here in Idaho to plant outside, so we are starting seeds indoors.  Also, get some chickens.  They are cheap to feed and they produce good protein in eggs.  If they don't lay, eat them.  Rabbits are also a good source of protein and they reproduce rapidly.

Whoa, are people suggesting there will be such chaos that there could be lasting food shortages??? In the absence of war or some other calamity, I am not aware of a likely scenario where this happens. 

It is not like the virus is making the cows drop dead in their pastures. It doesn't stop chickens from laying eggs each day, or make trees stop producing fruit. There will be some disruptions, so I think stocking up for some number of weeks makes sense and I plan to grow a few more fruits/vegetables in my yard this year. (Many Americans will be surprised how many packaged and frozen foods are processed abroad).

But even in the absolute worst case scenarios, America (and specifically CA) produces an enormous amount  of fresh fruit, vegetables, grain and corn, and 90-99.99%+ of people under 50 (and probably 99.9%+) will still be alive in 2 years, and they will be able to milk cows, pick crops, transport them and sell them. So I expect -- with some disruptions and a good amount of substitution -- America should be OK in terms of fresh food.

[quote="Farm93" pid='273289' dateline='1584794950']We have innovations too.
Amazon Prime, Supermarket delivery services, Wal-Mart Pick-up, etc.
...
Those things are hammered right now. We placed an amazon Fresh delivery last weekend and just never got it. Meanwhile things like wipes and hand sanitizer are totally wiped out on Amazon.
...
Like, in general, yeah they're nice. But we don't have the infrastructure in place to actually do it in place of in-person shopping.

Where I live in the South Bay, all non-food Amazon deliveries have come on-time. 

While Amazon Fresh seems useless for a lack of delivery windows, Nob Hill suggests ordering 48 hours in advance for delivery. Safeway and Costco (via Instacart) can deliver food and the selection looks good for fresh food. And those companies are hiring like crazy to ramp up delivery capabilities.

A lot of the food California produces relies on migrant labor. With borders closed, a lot of the usual crop may not get planted. Sure, the government says they are allowing essential workers in. Not sure how many California farmers are willing to rely on those pronouncements. Even if the food does make it to markets, I would be a lot more comfortable with vegies grown in my yard, at least for those that do not get cooked. Not sure what we are going to do this year. We usually get our tomato plants from the county extension plant sale. I doubt that's happening this year. We probably have to find seeds and grow our own seedlings.

[82 Card]

Californians should be planting vegetables right now.  If you don't have a yard, plant in containers.  You can buy starts to cut the harvest time.  You will be harvesting food in a few weeks.  It's too cold here in Idaho to plant outside, so we are starting seeds indoors.  Also, get some chickens.  They are cheap to feed and they produce good protein in eggs.  If they don't lay, eat them.  Rabbits are also a good source of protein and they reproduce rapidly.

Whoa, are people suggesting there will be such chaos that there could be lasting food shortages??? In the absence of war or some other calamity, I am not aware of a likely scenario where this happens. 

It is not like the virus is making the cows drop dead in their pastures. It doesn't stop chickens from laying eggs each day, or make trees stop producing fruit. There will be some disruptions, so I think stocking up for some number of weeks makes sense and I plan to grow a few more fruits/vegetables in my yard this year. (Many Americans will be surprised how many packaged and frozen foods are processed abroad).

But even in the absolute worst case scenarios, America (and specifically CA) produces an enormous amount  of fresh fruit, vegetables, grain and corn, and 90-99.99%+ of people under 50 (and probably 99.9%+) will still be alive in 2 years, and they will be able to milk cows, pick crops, transport them and sell them. So I expect -- with some disruptions and a good amount of substitution -- America should be OK in terms of fresh food.

[quote="Farm93" pid='273289' dateline='1584794950']We have innovations too.
Amazon Prime, Supermarket delivery services, Wal-Mart Pick-up, etc.
...
Those things are hammered right now. We placed an amazon Fresh delivery last weekend and just never got it. Meanwhile things like wipes and hand sanitizer are totally wiped out on Amazon.
...
Like, in general, yeah they're nice. But we don't have the infrastructure in place to actually do it in place of in-person shopping.

Where I live in the South Bay, all non-food Amazon deliveries have come on-time. 

While Amazon Fresh seems useless for a lack of delivery windows, Nob Hill suggests ordering 48 hours in advance for delivery. Safeway and Costco (via Instacart) can deliver food and the selection looks good for fresh food. And those companies are hiring like crazy to ramp up delivery capabilities.

A lot of the food California produces relies on migrant labor. With borders closed, a lot of the usual crop may not get planted. Sure, the government says they are allowing essential workers in. Not sure how many California farmers are willing to rely on those pronouncements. Even if the food does make it to markets, I would be a lot more comfortable with vegies grown in my yard, at least for those that do not get cooked. Not sure what we are going to do this year. We usually get our tomato plants from the county extension plant sale. I doubt that's happening this year. We probably have to find seeds and grow our own seedlings.

[Mick]

From Anne Lowry:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...on/608443/

It's not a recession, it's an ice age.

To quantify the present reality, we have to rely on anecdotes from businesses, surveys of workers, shreds of private data, and a few state numbers. They show an economy not in a downturn or a contraction or a soft patch, not experiencing losses or selling off or correcting. They show evaporation, disappearance on what feels like a religious scale.

BC

Feels pretty natural to these folks:

[Mick]

From Anne Lowry:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...on/608443/

It's not a recession, it's an ice age.

To quantify the present reality, we have to rely on anecdotes from businesses, surveys of workers, shreds of private data, and a few state numbers. They show an economy not in a downturn or a contraction or a soft patch, not experiencing losses or selling off or correcting. They show evaporation, disappearance on what feels like a religious scale.

BC

Feels pretty natural to these folks:

[stupac2]

Well, we are all stuck at home anyway.  Gardening is a healthy outdoor activity that does not put you near other people.  Home grown food is usually better than store bought.  Why not plant a garden?

I mean, I'm pro-gardening, as I said I've transitioned basically as much of my property as I can into gardening space. So if people want to, great! But I'm not sure it's feasible at any kind of scale for a variety of reasons, and I'm not sure it would be particularly useful for anything either.

[stupac2]

Well, we are all stuck at home anyway.  Gardening is a healthy outdoor activity that does not put you near other people.  Home grown food is usually better than store bought.  Why not plant a garden?

I mean, I'm pro-gardening, as I said I've transitioned basically as much of my property as I can into gardening space. So if people want to, great! But I'm not sure it's feasible at any kind of scale for a variety of reasons, and I'm not sure it would be particularly useful for anything either.

[cardcrimson]

Well, we are all stuck at home anyway.  Gardening is a healthy outdoor activity that does not put you near other people.  Home grown food is usually better than store bought.  Why not plant a garden?

I mean, I'm pro-gardening, as I said I've transitioned basically as much of my property as I can into gardening space. So if people want to, great! But I'm not sure it's feasible at any kind of scale for a variety of reasons, and I'm not sure it would be particularly useful for anything either.

Can't afford to garden in CA. The water bills are just too high. . . .

[cardcrimson]

Well, we are all stuck at home anyway.  Gardening is a healthy outdoor activity that does not put you near other people.  Home grown food is usually better than store bought.  Why not plant a garden?

I mean, I'm pro-gardening, as I said I've transitioned basically as much of my property as I can into gardening space. So if people want to, great! But I'm not sure it's feasible at any kind of scale for a variety of reasons, and I'm not sure it would be particularly useful for anything either.

Can't afford to garden in CA. The water bills are just too high. . . .

[82 Card]

Can't afford to garden in CA. The water bills are just too high. . . .

Not if you pick appropriate plants and use drip irrigation.

[82 Card]

Can't afford to garden in CA. The water bills are just too high. . . .

Not if you pick appropriate plants and use drip irrigation.

[stupac2]

Can't afford to garden in CA. The water bills are just too high. . . .

Not if you pick appropriate plants and use drip irrigation.

Yeah I don't think gardening has meaningfully changed my water bill. It's less than I use for my daily shower.

[stupac2]

Can't afford to garden in CA. The water bills are just too high. . . .

Not if you pick appropriate plants and use drip irrigation.

Yeah I don't think gardening has meaningfully changed my water bill. It's less than I use for my daily shower.

[M T]

I lost confidence that Safeway can deliver when my delivery never arrived, they didn't contact me or give a way to reschedule on their site (instead just showing it as a past order as if it had been delivered), and I got no response to the "where's my order?" request form on the site. They didn't charge my credit card, so at least there was awareness somewhere that they didn't fulfill the order.

My comments on various grocery delivery options that I've tried in the last few weeks.

For all of these delivery services below, choose a delivery time first, then shop.
Pay very close to the  Allow Substitution or not.   At Safeway, the shopper substituted dog food for cat food. 
If you allow substitution, you don't know what you'll get (a 8oz Ketchup instead of 32oz, a different brand, a different flavor, etc.)  If you don't allow substitution, well, the first time I didn't get the major items (meat, vegetables, etc.); the 2nd time, there were 13 items not delivered.

Customer nonService:  I spent 40 minutes on hold to Safeway before I gave up and decided to eat (not literally) the $11 for the dog food.  There seems to be no option for customer service.  No complaints, no returns.

As high-risk, I want delivery only.  Not pick-up, not senior shopping hours.

SAFEWAY DELIVERY
I had one delivery from Safeway before the county's order and one since.  Both were supposed to be by Safeway (vs DoorDash) but Safeway used DoorDash to get them to me.  The delivery is from the largest area store, not from your local store.

Note that delivery.safeway.com is a delivery option by a third party, and is different than from safeway.com.
Safeway's shopping allowed me to set the delivery window (which they kept on one and missed by an hour on the other) and was relatively straight forward.  I could adjust my order up until 4 hours or so before delivery.   Delivery choices were for up to about 4 or 5 days in the future, so there is limited choice and likely to be filled.  (I've heard rumors of a large hiring push by Safeway)
  Service charge but no tipping.

You can order items and try for a delivery time later.   But I've found that confusing when I try to recall where I am on groceries scheduled to arrive.

AMAZON FRESH
This was frustrating to me.  I sorta presumed they'd be able to deliver, but I went 3 weeks into the future (to the end of their options) and there were no appointments available.   I tried again at 9PM and at Midnight to see if a new day would open with deliveries -- nope.

NOB HILL DELIVERY
We got a delivery for 10 days in the future.  We made an order at a level as though we were getting it tomorrow.  When I realized that was the wrong thing to do, we weren't able to change the order, at least without removing all the items and starting over.

INSTACART (Lucky, Trader Joe's, etc.)
   A Winner!
On Friday, we were able to get a delivery scheduled that night from Lucky's. 
When we did the online shopping, some items were unavailable (presumably out of stock), but you know that as you shop.
They have an app or a web page (your choice) so you are notified as the delivery person picks up each item.  If he chooses a replacement, you see it immediately and can accept it or reject it.  You can chat with the shopper if you want.  Up until the checkout begins, you apparently can ask for something else, or different.
    I'm not sure if it was the shopper or the store clerk, but the items were double bagged, and all the cold items were packed together.
    Service charge plus Tipping.

[M T]

I lost confidence that Safeway can deliver when my delivery never arrived, they didn't contact me or give a way to reschedule on their site (instead just showing it as a past order as if it had been delivered), and I got no response to the "where's my order?" request form on the site. They didn't charge my credit card, so at least there was awareness somewhere that they didn't fulfill the order.

My comments on various grocery delivery options that I've tried in the last few weeks.

For all of these delivery services below, choose a delivery time first, then shop.
Pay very close to the  Allow Substitution or not.   At Safeway, the shopper substituted dog food for cat food. 
If you allow substitution, you don't know what you'll get (a 8oz Ketchup instead of 32oz, a different brand, a different flavor, etc.)  If you don't allow substitution, well, the first time I didn't get the major items (meat, vegetables, etc.); the 2nd time, there were 13 items not delivered.

Customer nonService:  I spent 40 minutes on hold to Safeway before I gave up and decided to eat (not literally) the $11 for the dog food.  There seems to be no option for customer service.  No complaints, no returns.

As high-risk, I want delivery only.  Not pick-up, not senior shopping hours.

SAFEWAY DELIVERY
I had one delivery from Safeway before the county's order and one since.  Both were supposed to be by Safeway (vs DoorDash) but Safeway used DoorDash to get them to me.  The delivery is from the largest area store, not from your local store.

Note that delivery.safeway.com is a delivery option by a third party, and is different than from safeway.com.
Safeway's shopping allowed me to set the delivery window (which they kept on one and missed by an hour on the other) and was relatively straight forward.  I could adjust my order up until 4 hours or so before delivery.   Delivery choices were for up to about 4 or 5 days in the future, so there is limited choice and likely to be filled.  (I've heard rumors of a large hiring push by Safeway)
  Service charge but no tipping.

You can order items and try for a delivery time later.   But I've found that confusing when I try to recall where I am on groceries scheduled to arrive.

AMAZON FRESH
This was frustrating to me.  I sorta presumed they'd be able to deliver, but I went 3 weeks into the future (to the end of their options) and there were no appointments available.   I tried again at 9PM and at Midnight to see if a new day would open with deliveries -- nope.

NOB HILL DELIVERY
We got a delivery for 10 days in the future.  We made an order at a level as though we were getting it tomorrow.  When I realized that was the wrong thing to do, we weren't able to change the order, at least without removing all the items and starting over.

INSTACART (Lucky, Trader Joe's, etc.)
   A Winner!
On Friday, we were able to get a delivery scheduled that night from Lucky's. 
When we did the online shopping, some items were unavailable (presumably out of stock), but you know that as you shop.
They have an app or a web page (your choice) so you are notified as the delivery person picks up each item.  If he chooses a replacement, you see it immediately and can accept it or reject it.  You can chat with the shopper if you want.  Up until the checkout begins, you apparently can ask for something else, or different.
    I'm not sure if it was the shopper or the store clerk, but the items were double bagged, and all the cold items were packed together.
    Service charge plus Tipping.

[2006alum]

Nifty use of mobile phone data to see who's actually complying with sheltering in place. 

[tweet]https://twitter.com/joshmich/status/1242532954016006145?s=20[/tweet]

You can follow the link to the website and zoom in to the county level. California as a whole currently gets an A grade, with SF among the top counties in the state.

[2006alum]

Nifty use of mobile phone data to see who's actually complying with sheltering in place. 

[tweet]https://twitter.com/joshmich/status/1242532954016006145?s=20[/tweet]

You can follow the link to the website and zoom in to the county level. California as a whole currently gets an A grade, with SF among the top counties in the state.

[ChicagoCard]

Nifty use of mobile phone data to see who's actually complying with sheltering in place. 

[tweet]https://twitter.com/joshmich/status/1242532954016006145?s=20[/tweet]

You can follow the link to the website and zoom in to the county level. California as a whole currently gets an A grade, with SF among the top counties in the state.

Wow, interesting. I wonder if Wyoming can afford to get an F. (That was a joke.)

[ChicagoCard]

Nifty use of mobile phone data to see who's actually complying with sheltering in place. 

[tweet]https://twitter.com/joshmich/status/1242532954016006145?s=20[/tweet]

You can follow the link to the website and zoom in to the county level. California as a whole currently gets an A grade, with SF among the top counties in the state.

Wow, interesting. I wonder if Wyoming can afford to get an F. (That was a joke.)

[magnus]

California as a whole currently gets an A grade, with SF among the top counties in the state.

Talk about grade inflation:

"Unacast assigned an A grade to places that show at least a 40 percent..."

Neat link though.  Thanks 2006alum.

[magnus]

California as a whole currently gets an A grade, with SF among the top counties in the state.

Talk about grade inflation:

"Unacast assigned an A grade to places that show at least a 40 percent..."

Neat link though.  Thanks 2006alum.

[burger]

California as a whole currently gets an A grade, with SF among the top counties in the state.

Talk about grade inflation:

"Unacast assigned an A grade to places that show at least a 40 percent..."

Neat link though.  Thanks 2006alum.

I have no data, but just from pictures I've seen, I'd bet that Italy and several cities in China reduced their travel far more than 40%.  Will 40% be enough?  We'll know soon.

[burger]

California as a whole currently gets an A grade, with SF among the top counties in the state.

Talk about grade inflation:

"Unacast assigned an A grade to places that show at least a 40 percent..."

Neat link though.  Thanks 2006alum.

I have no data, but just from pictures I've seen, I'd bet that Italy and several cities in China reduced their travel far more than 40%.  Will 40% be enough?  We'll know soon.

[magnus]

Talk about grade inflation:

"Unacast assigned an A grade to places that show at least a 40 percent..."

Neat link though.  Thanks 2006alum.

I have no data, but just from pictures I've seen, I'd bet that Italy and several cities in China reduced their travel far more than 40%.  Will 40% be enough?  We'll know soon.

Financial Times has data in charts that might touch on this. 

Here's one tweeted out yesterday on the road usage in several cities

[tweet]https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1242225897366794241[/tweet]
50% doesn't appear nearly enough

Edit: Sorry, can't seem to get rid of the first graph.

[magnus]

Talk about grade inflation:

"Unacast assigned an A grade to places that show at least a 40 percent..."

Neat link though.  Thanks 2006alum.

I have no data, but just from pictures I've seen, I'd bet that Italy and several cities in China reduced their travel far more than 40%.  Will 40% be enough?  We'll know soon.

Financial Times has data in charts that might touch on this. 

Here's one tweeted out yesterday on the road usage in several cities

[tweet]https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1242225897366794241[/tweet]
50% doesn't appear nearly enough

Edit: Sorry, can't seem to get rid of the first graph.

[82 Card]

It looks like they are basing the ratings on distance traveled. Although that is probably related to how many people are hunkering down, it doesn't tell you whether the people are effectively distancing. If a person in San Francisco goes to the grocery store a block away, they haven't traveled as far as a suburbanite who has to go to a grocery store 5 miles away. If the city grocery store is packed while the suburban grocery store is observing social distancing, that doesn't change the rating. In Wyoming or some counties in California, you can drive for a long time without doing any damage as long as you stay far enough away from people when you get where you are going.

[82 Card]

It looks like they are basing the ratings on distance traveled. Although that is probably related to how many people are hunkering down, it doesn't tell you whether the people are effectively distancing. If a person in San Francisco goes to the grocery store a block away, they haven't traveled as far as a suburbanite who has to go to a grocery store 5 miles away. If the city grocery store is packed while the suburban grocery store is observing social distancing, that doesn't change the rating. In Wyoming or some counties in California, you can drive for a long time without doing any damage as long as you stay far enough away from people when you get where you are going.

[M T]

It seems more like an inverse measure of commute distance.   Stop going to work and you lose 2x commute distance.  The distance can't tell if you are playing football at the neighborhood park or being strictly quarantined.

But, I will say that getting people off mass transit has gotta help.

[M T]

It seems more like an inverse measure of commute distance.   Stop going to work and you lose 2x commute distance.  The distance can't tell if you are playing football at the neighborhood park or being strictly quarantined.

But, I will say that getting people off mass transit has gotta help.