[needle]

[tweet] https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/...2333614086 [/tweet]

Some coaches are hungry and some are picky. As I recall, Harbaugh interviewed for a couple of jobs before being hired at Stanford, but the reports were that he wasn't the top choice.

I have a bias that makes me think "hungry" coaches outperform "picky" coaches, but maybe there's some data out there that suggest otherwise.

[needle]

[tweet] https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/...2333614086 [/tweet]

Some coaches are hungry and some are picky. As I recall, Harbaugh interviewed for a couple of jobs before being hired at Stanford, but the reports were that he wasn't the top choice.

I have a bias that makes me think "hungry" coaches outperform "picky" coaches, but maybe there's some data out there that suggest otherwise.

[BostonCard]

Bienemy has a significant criminal rap sheet.

So you are saying he'll fit right in.

BC

[BostonCard]

Bienemy has a significant criminal rap sheet.

So you are saying he'll fit right in.

BC

[Goose]

Bienemy has a significant criminal rap sheet.

So you are saying he'll fit right in.

BC

Perhaps, but I think the "new" administration at U$C is being a bit careful about appearances. I am not sure that extends to substance, but right now with their recent problems having a squeaky clean coach is important. Whether or not the past history of 20 years ago is long enought to provide that is unknown to me.

[Goose]

Bienemy has a significant criminal rap sheet.

So you are saying he'll fit right in.

BC

Perhaps, but I think the "new" administration at U$C is being a bit careful about appearances. I am not sure that extends to substance, but right now with their recent problems having a squeaky clean coach is important. Whether or not the past history of 20 years ago is long enought to provide that is unknown to me.

[teejers1]

Bienemy has a significant criminal rap sheet.

So you are saying he'll fit right in.

BC

Perhaps, but I think the "new" administration at U$C is being a bit careful about appearances. I am not sure that extends to substance, but right now with their recent problems having a squeaky clean coach is important. Whether or not the past history of 20 years ago is long enought to provide that is unknown to me.

I'm all for second chances and 20 years seems a long time ago (assuming sheet crimes aren't too egregious).  

But I find it both amusing and sad that a criminal act years ago (rightfully - assuming debt to society repaid) doesn't DQ you from a job; whereas an imprudent post on social media or some other "incorrect" thought or action (albeit non-criminal) DQs you from all kinds of stuff.  That strikes me as so WHACK!

[teejers1]

Bienemy has a significant criminal rap sheet.

So you are saying he'll fit right in.

BC

Perhaps, but I think the "new" administration at U$C is being a bit careful about appearances. I am not sure that extends to substance, but right now with their recent problems having a squeaky clean coach is important. Whether or not the past history of 20 years ago is long enought to provide that is unknown to me.

I'm all for second chances and 20 years seems a long time ago (assuming sheet crimes aren't too egregious).  

But I find it both amusing and sad that a criminal act years ago (rightfully - assuming debt to society repaid) doesn't DQ you from a job; whereas an imprudent post on social media or some other "incorrect" thought or action (albeit non-criminal) DQs you from all kinds of stuff.  That strikes me as so WHACK!

[SamuelMcF]

Patrick Mahomes is to Bieniemy as Peyton Manning is to Adam Gase (as Andrew Luck/Kevin Hogan are to David Shaw).

[SamuelMcF]

Patrick Mahomes is to Bieniemy as Peyton Manning is to Adam Gase (as Andrew Luck/Kevin Hogan are to David Shaw).

[BostonCard]

It is also worth remembering that we "forgave" Harbaugh a DUI when we hired him.

Here's a summary of Bieniemy's legal issues:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Bieni...gal_issues

They are a bit more extensive than Harbaugh's, but, as noted, the most recent one occurred 20 years ago.

I wonder what proportion of social media pile-ons result in actual, real-world consequences, and what proportion eventually blow over or result in an admonishment from employers to watch what you post.  But that will have to be the subject for some other time and place given the restrictions on this board.

BC

[BostonCard]

It is also worth remembering that we "forgave" Harbaugh a DUI when we hired him.

Here's a summary of Bieniemy's legal issues:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Bieni...gal_issues

They are a bit more extensive than Harbaugh's, but, as noted, the most recent one occurred 20 years ago.

I wonder what proportion of social media pile-ons result in actual, real-world consequences, and what proportion eventually blow over or result in an admonishment from employers to watch what you post.  But that will have to be the subject for some other time and place given the restrictions on this board.

BC

[gailtate]

Bienemy has a significant criminal rap sheet.

So you are saying he'll fit right in.

BC

Perhaps, but I think the "new" administration at U$C is being a bit careful about appearances. I am not sure that extends to substance, but right now with their recent problems having a squeaky clean coach is important. Whether or not the past history of 20 years ago is long enought to provide that is unknown to me.

I'm all for second chances and 20 years seems a long time ago (assuming sheet crimes aren't too egregious).  

But I find it both amusing and sad that a criminal act years ago (rightfully - assuming debt to society repaid) doesn't DQ you from a job; whereas an imprudent post on social media or some other "incorrect" thought or action (albeit non-criminal) DQs you from all kinds of stuff.  That strikes me as so WHACK!

I'll put it this way: We all have chapters we do not want read.

[gailtate]

Bienemy has a significant criminal rap sheet.

So you are saying he'll fit right in.

BC

Perhaps, but I think the "new" administration at U$C is being a bit careful about appearances. I am not sure that extends to substance, but right now with their recent problems having a squeaky clean coach is important. Whether or not the past history of 20 years ago is long enought to provide that is unknown to me.

I'm all for second chances and 20 years seems a long time ago (assuming sheet crimes aren't too egregious).  

But I find it both amusing and sad that a criminal act years ago (rightfully - assuming debt to society repaid) doesn't DQ you from a job; whereas an imprudent post on social media or some other "incorrect" thought or action (albeit non-criminal) DQs you from all kinds of stuff.  That strikes me as so WHACK!

I'll put it this way: We all have chapters we do not want read.

[TrumpCard]

given that usc recently had to fire an alcoholic head coach, I don’t think they’ll make that same mistake again. The rap sheet sort of looks to me like EB had a drinking problem. If he did, but has been sober 20 years, no problem. If he did and still has a relationship with alcohol, I assume he won’t be hired.

[TrumpCard]

given that usc recently had to fire an alcoholic head coach, I don’t think they’ll make that same mistake again. The rap sheet sort of looks to me like EB had a drinking problem. If he did, but has been sober 20 years, no problem. If he did and still has a relationship with alcohol, I assume he won’t be hired.

[CTcard]

As long as Helton was coach, USC would likely underachieve and remain mediocre, at least compared to expectations. 

Compared to expectations, for sure.
Compared to what else, it isn't so clear.

For the most part he didn't underachieve versus other SC coaches:
Helton won 66% overall - 73% in conference 
Sarkisian won 66% overall - 58% in conference
Orgeron won 75% overall - 86% in conference
Kiffin won 65% overall - 58% in conference
Carrol won 84% overall - 82% in conference*
Hackett won 51% overall - 42% in conference
Robinson2 won 63% overall - 64% in conference
Smith won 63% overall - 72% in conference
Tollner won 56% overall - 68% in conference

*Carroll's numbers include his vacated wins.

That covers 38+ years.
Helton actually has the best record outside of Cheatey Petey and Orgeron. Hard to know how to count Orgeron, since he only was coach for the middle fraction of one season.
A good chunk of Helton's losses were in one year, 2018.

Where Helton may have overachieved versus recent decades is recruiting, though the issue seems to have been primarily one year.
His classes ranked (using 247 composite):
Year: Nationally/Pac 12
2021: #7 / #1
2020: #64/#12
2019: #20/#3
2018: #4 / #1
2017: #4 / #1
2016: #10/#1

I am not going to look up the other coaches.
Their 2020 class was small and bad by their standards, and 2019 below their usual. But otherwise, there isn't a lot of headroom for their recruiting to improve. 


SC's recruiting advantages make it always dangerous. And they could stumble into Carrol-2. There is a danger there.
However, at this point SC has become like all the long time have-nots out there, shuffling their coach every four years because they can't address the real issues.

On the other hand, in the short to medium term, there will be some advantages.  A shaken up SC will probably play better and might deal some losses to other Pac-12 North teams.

That may be true, it's hard to know how these things will go.
Maybe the team has lots of trust in the interim guy, db coach Donte Williams, and will rally round him. Or maybe they'll be grumpy that Helton is gone and Williams will be in over his head.

In fact, I think that's what saved us Saturday; a more balanced attack by USC would have been able to wear down our offensive line and forced us to bring more players into the box, which would have opened things up for their receivers. 

No one thing saved us on Saturday, we smoked those guys. If you are right about SC's strengths and if they had used those better, maybe they would have made us keep in all of our starters in the fourth quarter.

[CTcard]

As long as Helton was coach, USC would likely underachieve and remain mediocre, at least compared to expectations. 

Compared to expectations, for sure.
Compared to what else, it isn't so clear.

For the most part he didn't underachieve versus other SC coaches:
Helton won 66% overall - 73% in conference 
Sarkisian won 66% overall - 58% in conference
Orgeron won 75% overall - 86% in conference
Kiffin won 65% overall - 58% in conference
Carrol won 84% overall - 82% in conference*
Hackett won 51% overall - 42% in conference
Robinson2 won 63% overall - 64% in conference
Smith won 63% overall - 72% in conference
Tollner won 56% overall - 68% in conference

*Carroll's numbers include his vacated wins.

That covers 38+ years.
Helton actually has the best record outside of Cheatey Petey and Orgeron. Hard to know how to count Orgeron, since he only was coach for the middle fraction of one season.
A good chunk of Helton's losses were in one year, 2018.

Where Helton may have overachieved versus recent decades is recruiting, though the issue seems to have been primarily one year.
His classes ranked (using 247 composite):
Year: Nationally/Pac 12
2021: #7 / #1
2020: #64/#12
2019: #20/#3
2018: #4 / #1
2017: #4 / #1
2016: #10/#1

I am not going to look up the other coaches.
Their 2020 class was small and bad by their standards, and 2019 below their usual. But otherwise, there isn't a lot of headroom for their recruiting to improve. 


SC's recruiting advantages make it always dangerous. And they could stumble into Carrol-2. There is a danger there.
However, at this point SC has become like all the long time have-nots out there, shuffling their coach every four years because they can't address the real issues.

On the other hand, in the short to medium term, there will be some advantages.  A shaken up SC will probably play better and might deal some losses to other Pac-12 North teams.

That may be true, it's hard to know how these things will go.
Maybe the team has lots of trust in the interim guy, db coach Donte Williams, and will rally round him. Or maybe they'll be grumpy that Helton is gone and Williams will be in over his head.

In fact, I think that's what saved us Saturday; a more balanced attack by USC would have been able to wear down our offensive line and forced us to bring more players into the box, which would have opened things up for their receivers. 

No one thing saved us on Saturday, we smoked those guys. If you are right about SC's strengths and if they had used those better, maybe they would have made us keep in all of our starters in the fourth quarter.

[Goose]

No one thing saved us on Saturday, we smoked those guys. If you are right about SC's strengths and if they had used those better, maybe they would have made us keep in all of our starters in the fourth quarter.

Would that that were so. Obviously, we can't evaluate what "would have happened" if U$C had utilized a competent defensive and offensive strategy. Their players may not have even been required to play better, rather just play OK in a gameplan adjusted for what we were doing. I think we indeed played very well. Without question, we executed what we intended to do and the defense stepped up. However, in so far as we "smoked" U$C, they poured gasoline on themselves and handed us the matches.

[Goose]

No one thing saved us on Saturday, we smoked those guys. If you are right about SC's strengths and if they had used those better, maybe they would have made us keep in all of our starters in the fourth quarter.

Would that that were so. Obviously, we can't evaluate what "would have happened" if U$C had utilized a competent defensive and offensive strategy. Their players may not have even been required to play better, rather just play OK in a gameplan adjusted for what we were doing. I think we indeed played very well. Without question, we executed what we intended to do and the defense stepped up. However, in so far as we "smoked" U$C, they poured gasoline on themselves and handed us the matches.

[fullmetal]

Langdude, I loved all those posts.  Keep 'em coming.

Orgeron's characterization of U$C wanting a coach with golf clubs in the trunk is probably unfair.  Carroll never seemed like that kind of guy, and Orgeron's already demonstrated his disdain for anything not "tough enough"...see his "sissy blue" comment just before the UCLA, where he earned an ignominious loss for his bravado.  Speaking of tough enough, it was just last year when he got shredded by KJ Costello for an SEC passing record.

U$C needs to make a careful hire that isn't influenced by the boosters.  Look at Texas and see what havoc boosters will wreak on your football coach hiring process (word is that Texas boosters sabotaged the hiring of Charlie Strong's staff and ousted Tom Herman after Tom sided with the players re: The Eyes of Texas issue...see a pattern?). Thankfully I don't think U$C boosters have that kind of agenda, but they may be carrying either short-term or long-term biases with their donations.

One argument in favor of a win-now coach: Kedon Slovis is a good QB.  Best make use of him while he's still a student.  I don't know whether U$C has any sure-fire QBs in their development pipeline.  I was really surprised that Slovis didn't pick Stanford apart.  

Other factors: in-state talent retention (recruiting touch/ability), offensive/defensive philosophy, staff hiring demands, booster navigation skills.  It's not an easy hire for any athletic department, much less one with the expectations of U$C.

Personally, I would fear the hiring of any coach who emphasized offensive line development.  (Oregon's going to be a painful opponent for many years as long as Cristobal stays.)

[fullmetal]

Langdude, I loved all those posts.  Keep 'em coming.

Orgeron's characterization of U$C wanting a coach with golf clubs in the trunk is probably unfair.  Carroll never seemed like that kind of guy, and Orgeron's already demonstrated his disdain for anything not "tough enough"...see his "sissy blue" comment just before the UCLA, where he earned an ignominious loss for his bravado.  Speaking of tough enough, it was just last year when he got shredded by KJ Costello for an SEC passing record.

U$C needs to make a careful hire that isn't influenced by the boosters.  Look at Texas and see what havoc boosters will wreak on your football coach hiring process (word is that Texas boosters sabotaged the hiring of Charlie Strong's staff and ousted Tom Herman after Tom sided with the players re: The Eyes of Texas issue...see a pattern?). Thankfully I don't think U$C boosters have that kind of agenda, but they may be carrying either short-term or long-term biases with their donations.

One argument in favor of a win-now coach: Kedon Slovis is a good QB.  Best make use of him while he's still a student.  I don't know whether U$C has any sure-fire QBs in their development pipeline.  I was really surprised that Slovis didn't pick Stanford apart.  

Other factors: in-state talent retention (recruiting touch/ability), offensive/defensive philosophy, staff hiring demands, booster navigation skills.  It's not an easy hire for any athletic department, much less one with the expectations of U$C.

Personally, I would fear the hiring of any coach who emphasized offensive line development.  (Oregon's going to be a painful opponent for many years as long as Cristobal stays.)

[Bruce Wang]

Bienemy certainly has the rap sheet to fit right down there.  I also he hope he is to Mahomes as Charlie Weiss is to Tom Brady.

The Bienemy of my enemy is not my friend.

[Bruce Wang]

Bienemy certainly has the rap sheet to fit right down there.  I also he hope he is to Mahomes as Charlie Weiss is to Tom Brady.

The Bienemy of my enemy is not my friend.

[JustAnotherFan]

I consider Urban Meyer the greatest threat so I'm glad he has signaled so strongly that he's not interested.

Urban Meyer says there's "no chance' he'd leave Jacksonville Jaguars for USC Trojans job (ESPN)

[JustAnotherFan]

I consider Urban Meyer the greatest threat so I'm glad he has signaled so strongly that he's not interested.

Urban Meyer says there's "no chance' he'd leave Jacksonville Jaguars for USC Trojans job (ESPN)

[SamuelMcF]

I consider Urban Meyer the greatest threat so I'm glad he has signaled so strongly that he's not interested.



Urban Meyer says there's "no chance' he'd leave Jacksonville Jaguars for USC Trojans job (ESPN)

https://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=2705288


"I guess I have to say it," Saban said. "I'm not going to be the Alabama coach." 

2 weeks later, he left the Dolphins and took the job.


That said, Urban just coached his FIRST GAME with the Jags. It would be hilarious and Bobby Petrino-esque if he bailed. Plus he has a complete ground-up rebuild in front of him with no real expectations (and thus total job security) for a couple years at least.

[SamuelMcF]

I consider Urban Meyer the greatest threat so I'm glad he has signaled so strongly that he's not interested.



Urban Meyer says there's "no chance' he'd leave Jacksonville Jaguars for USC Trojans job (ESPN)

https://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=2705288


"I guess I have to say it," Saban said. "I'm not going to be the Alabama coach." 

2 weeks later, he left the Dolphins and took the job.


That said, Urban just coached his FIRST GAME with the Jags. It would be hilarious and Bobby Petrino-esque if he bailed. Plus he has a complete ground-up rebuild in front of him with no real expectations (and thus total job security) for a couple years at least.

[JustAnotherFan]

I consider Urban Meyer the greatest threat so I'm glad he has signaled so strongly that he's not interested.



Urban Meyer says there's "no chance' he'd leave Jacksonville Jaguars for USC Trojans job (ESPN)

https://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=2705288


"I guess I have to say it," Saban said. "I'm not going to be the Alabama coach." 

2 weeks later, he left the Dolphins and took the job.


That said, Urban just coached his FIRST GAME with the Jags. It would be hilarious and Bobby Petrino-esque if he bailed. Plus he has a complete ground-up rebuild in front of him with no real expectations (and thus total job security) for a couple years at least.

Funny, I was going to add a note about Saban. But Saban gave the NFL two seasons. Even if USC didn't name a head coach this season, in the hopes that Meyer was available at the end of the year, I don't think Meyer would be content with just one year. I think he'd want to prove himself competent with at least an upward trajectory two year data set. And I totally believe the not wanting to deal with the recruiting piece anymore.

---

I consider Urban Meyer the greatest threat so I'm glad he has signaled so strongly that he's not interested.



Urban Meyer says there's "no chance' he'd leave Jacksonville Jaguars for USC Trojans job (ESPN)

https://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=2705288


"I guess I have to say it," Saban said. "I'm not going to be the Alabama coach." 

2 weeks later, he left the Dolphins and took the job.


That said, Urban just coached his FIRST GAME with the Jags. It would be hilarious and Bobby Petrino-esque if he bailed. Plus he has a complete ground-up rebuild in front of him with no real expectations (and thus total job security) for a couple years at least.

Funny, I was going to add a note about Saban. But Saban gave the NFL two seasons. Even if USC didn't name a head coach this season, in the hopes that Meyer was available at the end of the year, I don't think Meyer would be content with just one year. I think he'd want to prove himself competent with at least an upward trajectory two year data set. And I totally believe the not wanting to deal with the recruiting piece anymore.

Just looked up Saban's NFL performance. Year 1 he was 9-7 and finished second in the east. Year 2 he was 6-10 and finished last in the east. He was also competing against Belichick, and perhaps rightly assumed he could be the best coach in college or the second best coach in the AFC east. 

I imagine Meyer reasonably believes he can dominate the AFC South.

[JustAnotherFan]

I consider Urban Meyer the greatest threat so I'm glad he has signaled so strongly that he's not interested.



Urban Meyer says there's "no chance' he'd leave Jacksonville Jaguars for USC Trojans job (ESPN)

https://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=2705288


"I guess I have to say it," Saban said. "I'm not going to be the Alabama coach." 

2 weeks later, he left the Dolphins and took the job.


That said, Urban just coached his FIRST GAME with the Jags. It would be hilarious and Bobby Petrino-esque if he bailed. Plus he has a complete ground-up rebuild in front of him with no real expectations (and thus total job security) for a couple years at least.

Funny, I was going to add a note about Saban. But Saban gave the NFL two seasons. Even if USC didn't name a head coach this season, in the hopes that Meyer was available at the end of the year, I don't think Meyer would be content with just one year. I think he'd want to prove himself competent with at least an upward trajectory two year data set. And I totally believe the not wanting to deal with the recruiting piece anymore.

---

I consider Urban Meyer the greatest threat so I'm glad he has signaled so strongly that he's not interested.



Urban Meyer says there's "no chance' he'd leave Jacksonville Jaguars for USC Trojans job (ESPN)

https://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=2705288


"I guess I have to say it," Saban said. "I'm not going to be the Alabama coach." 

2 weeks later, he left the Dolphins and took the job.


That said, Urban just coached his FIRST GAME with the Jags. It would be hilarious and Bobby Petrino-esque if he bailed. Plus he has a complete ground-up rebuild in front of him with no real expectations (and thus total job security) for a couple years at least.

Funny, I was going to add a note about Saban. But Saban gave the NFL two seasons. Even if USC didn't name a head coach this season, in the hopes that Meyer was available at the end of the year, I don't think Meyer would be content with just one year. I think he'd want to prove himself competent with at least an upward trajectory two year data set. And I totally believe the not wanting to deal with the recruiting piece anymore.

Just looked up Saban's NFL performance. Year 1 he was 9-7 and finished second in the east. Year 2 he was 6-10 and finished last in the east. He was also competing against Belichick, and perhaps rightly assumed he could be the best coach in college or the second best coach in the AFC east. 

I imagine Meyer reasonably believes he can dominate the AFC South.