[Maple Leaf]

Who presents the bigger challenge Tampa or LA?

[Maple Leaf]

Who presents the bigger challenge Tampa or LA?

[old spanish trail]

Who presents the bigger challenge Tampa or LA?

Wouldn't want to play LA again. Of course, I said the same before the last game.

[old spanish trail]

Who presents the bigger challenge Tampa or LA?

Wouldn't want to play LA again. Of course, I said the same before the last game.

[teejers1]

Who presents the bigger challenge Tampa or LA?

Tampa, though either will be tough.  But if Jimmy doesn't implode with bad picks, then the 'Niners should make either team "earn it."

Only watched Q4, but my favorite play was by the coaching staff:  to call a RUN on third and 7 with about a minute left and GB with no timeouts left (not sure why GB called those two timeouts - going 80 yards in those conditions with 0 timeouts and about 30 seconds?  Extremely unlikely, and you want a TO left if for no other reason than to potentially get in head of opposing PK).  Calling a run there guaranteed the 'Niners would go OT as a worse case scenario.  Shanahan may be learning.  BTW, noticed they called a timeout before ultimately running that play, but it looked like the same formation pre and post timeout.  It wouldn't surprise me if somebody had to persuade somebody that a running play was the right call.  It was.  Good for Shanahan; good for the 'Niners.

P.S.  I heard on TV that Burrow was sacked 9 times and Cincy still one.  That is mind-boggling . . .

[teejers1]

Who presents the bigger challenge Tampa or LA?

Tampa, though either will be tough.  But if Jimmy doesn't implode with bad picks, then the 'Niners should make either team "earn it."

Only watched Q4, but my favorite play was by the coaching staff:  to call a RUN on third and 7 with about a minute left and GB with no timeouts left (not sure why GB called those two timeouts - going 80 yards in those conditions with 0 timeouts and about 30 seconds?  Extremely unlikely, and you want a TO left if for no other reason than to potentially get in head of opposing PK).  Calling a run there guaranteed the 'Niners would go OT as a worse case scenario.  Shanahan may be learning.  BTW, noticed they called a timeout before ultimately running that play, but it looked like the same formation pre and post timeout.  It wouldn't surprise me if somebody had to persuade somebody that a running play was the right call.  It was.  Good for Shanahan; good for the 'Niners.

P.S.  I heard on TV that Burrow was sacked 9 times and Cincy still one.  That is mind-boggling . . .

[French Rage]

Tampa would be more fun, because then to get to the SB they would have had to beat LAR, DAL, GB, and TB in the last 4, the top 4 seeds.

[French Rage]

Tampa would be more fun, because then to get to the SB they would have had to beat LAR, DAL, GB, and TB in the last 4, the top 4 seeds.

[Mick]

Good chance they will have to release him. That’s only a 1.4 million cap hit.  It’s not JG’s fault that the Niners overpaid him.  (I read that his cap hit is the highest percentage of any player in the league.). He’s a solid QB in the 8 games or so a year that he’s actually healthy.  But he’s not worth anything close to $27 million.  And that, coupled with a franchise decision to trade multiple first rounders for Lance, leads to the obvious conclusion that he will be gone next year.

Strongly disagree, there's a good market for him. His health is a wild card which could make him untradeable, but if he checks out physically his salary is actually reasonable relative to his ability, and there will be teams willing to give up a day two pick for him.

We have very different perceptions of his market so we'll have to wait and see. I do agree that he's likely playing elsewhere next year.

Agreed.  Right now, he's not even a Top 10 paid QB (#10 is Matt Ryan at $30 million), but he's #9 in regular season passer rating and #13 in QBR.  Seems appropriate.

[Mick]

Good chance they will have to release him. That’s only a 1.4 million cap hit.  It’s not JG’s fault that the Niners overpaid him.  (I read that his cap hit is the highest percentage of any player in the league.). He’s a solid QB in the 8 games or so a year that he’s actually healthy.  But he’s not worth anything close to $27 million.  And that, coupled with a franchise decision to trade multiple first rounders for Lance, leads to the obvious conclusion that he will be gone next year.

Strongly disagree, there's a good market for him. His health is a wild card which could make him untradeable, but if he checks out physically his salary is actually reasonable relative to his ability, and there will be teams willing to give up a day two pick for him.

We have very different perceptions of his market so we'll have to wait and see. I do agree that he's likely playing elsewhere next year.

Agreed.  Right now, he's not even a Top 10 paid QB (#10 is Matt Ryan at $30 million), but he's #9 in regular season passer rating and #13 in QBR.  Seems appropriate.

[lex24]

Who presents the bigger challenge Tampa or LA?

Wouldn't want to play LA again. Of course, I said the same before the last game.

Hard to beat a team seven straight times…..

---

Deebo is Superman. I'm with ya Hogge re Jimmy. Would love to see the dilemma. Lex, is there any way out of the $27 mill problem?

I suspect they could renegotiate/ restructure the contract, but I think that is highly unlikely.

[lex24]

Who presents the bigger challenge Tampa or LA?

Wouldn't want to play LA again. Of course, I said the same before the last game.

Hard to beat a team seven straight times…..

---

Deebo is Superman. I'm with ya Hogge re Jimmy. Would love to see the dilemma. Lex, is there any way out of the $27 mill problem?

I suspect they could renegotiate/ restructure the contract, but I think that is highly unlikely.

[Mick]

Shoot... of course on White. Although Jones had only one great year. I guess I was thinking of Jackie Brandt.

To Chub's credit he got Billy Pierce and Don Larsen for nothing. But they got rid of Leon Wagner, Jose Cardenal, Jose Pagan, Matty and Felipe. They got one good year from Bob Shaw.

Later on Horace sold Kingman to make payroll and lost Matthews. The Murcer trade was a disaster but Bobby Bonds had a problem that the Giants couldn't control. Maddox for Montanez if I remember was another disaster. Maddox and Willie Davis running first base to third was absolutely beautiful.

OK, what is the injury backup plan for Lance. Name names all you assistant GM's.

Must've been some problem.  He played 7 years for the Giants (two all star teams, three gold gloves), then played for seven different teams in the next eight years.  After he left the Giants, he played for the Yankees and was an All-Star and they still got rid of him.  I know he was abrasive and an alcoholic.

[Mick]

Shoot... of course on White. Although Jones had only one great year. I guess I was thinking of Jackie Brandt.

To Chub's credit he got Billy Pierce and Don Larsen for nothing. But they got rid of Leon Wagner, Jose Cardenal, Jose Pagan, Matty and Felipe. They got one good year from Bob Shaw.

Later on Horace sold Kingman to make payroll and lost Matthews. The Murcer trade was a disaster but Bobby Bonds had a problem that the Giants couldn't control. Maddox for Montanez if I remember was another disaster. Maddox and Willie Davis running first base to third was absolutely beautiful.

OK, what is the injury backup plan for Lance. Name names all you assistant GM's.

Must've been some problem.  He played 7 years for the Giants (two all star teams, three gold gloves), then played for seven different teams in the next eight years.  After he left the Giants, he played for the Yankees and was an All-Star and they still got rid of him.  I know he was abrasive and an alcoholic.

[lex24]

We lost our outstanding DC to the Jets as Head coach. In October talking  with friends we all thought new guy ain’t cutting it.    We were so very wrong.  What a defense

Agree.  This defense has got better and better as year goes on.  Ryans deserves a lot of credit.

[lex24]

We lost our outstanding DC to the Jets as Head coach. In October talking  with friends we all thought new guy ain’t cutting it.    We were so very wrong.  What a defense

Agree.  This defense has got better and better as year goes on.  Ryans deserves a lot of credit.

[Mick]

Who presents the bigger challenge Tampa or LA?

Tampa Bay by a hair.  LA is a bunch of finesse players, and the Niners are extremely physical.  The Rams don't like to play the 49ers.  On the other hand, they know the 49ers really well, whereas I think Shanahan can out-scheme Tampa's coaching staff.

Niners have an extra day to recover against either of those teams.  Speaking of which...Green Bay had a ton of time to recover, and in their season ending game sat the starters for half the game.  They should have crunched the 49ers.

---

We lost our outstanding DC to the Jets as Head coach. In October talking  with friends we all thought new guy ain’t cutting it.    We were so very wrong.  What a defense

Agreed.  I think DeMeco Ryans is an HC next year...

[Mick]

Who presents the bigger challenge Tampa or LA?

Tampa Bay by a hair.  LA is a bunch of finesse players, and the Niners are extremely physical.  The Rams don't like to play the 49ers.  On the other hand, they know the 49ers really well, whereas I think Shanahan can out-scheme Tampa's coaching staff.

Niners have an extra day to recover against either of those teams.  Speaking of which...Green Bay had a ton of time to recover, and in their season ending game sat the starters for half the game.  They should have crunched the 49ers.

---

We lost our outstanding DC to the Jets as Head coach. In October talking  with friends we all thought new guy ain’t cutting it.    We were so very wrong.  What a defense

Agreed.  I think DeMeco Ryans is an HC next year...

[teejers1]

Good chance they will have to release him. That’s only a 1.4 million cap hit.  It’s not JG’s fault that the Niners overpaid him.  (I read that his cap hit is the highest percentage of any player in the league.). He’s a solid QB in the 8 games or so a year that he’s actually healthy.  But he’s not worth anything close to $27 million.  And that, coupled with a franchise decision to trade multiple first rounders for Lance, leads to the obvious conclusion that he will be gone next year.

Strongly disagree, there's a good market for him. His health is a wild card which could make him untradeable, but if he checks out physically his salary is actually reasonable relative to his ability, and there will be teams willing to give up a day two pick for him.

We have very different perceptions of his market so we'll have to wait and see. I do agree that he's likely playing elsewhere next year.

Agreed.  Right now, he's not even a Top 10 paid QB (#10 is Matt Ryan at $30 million), but he's #9 in regular season passer rating and #13 in QBR.  Seems appropriate.

I don't think that analysis is the correct one. 
The correct one is what would a team sign Jimmy for if they could do so on the open market?  
Do you think anyone would throw $27M at him for one year?  I do not.  
Pay $27M AND give up a R3 draft pick for him?  Sounds crazy to me.

And let's be real, passer rating isn't the definitive measure to rank NFL QBs.  There are 15 other QBs teams would take over Jimmy.  Off the top of my head:  Mahomes, Allen, Burrows, Brady, Rodgers, Stafford, Herbert, Carr, Dak, Murray, Wilson, Cousins, Jackson, Mills, Lawrence, and Goff.  There may be others (Mac Jones?); and you might dispute one or two from that list.  But still, the point holds.  Jimmy ain't 10th best QB in league despite passer rating.

[teejers1]

Good chance they will have to release him. That’s only a 1.4 million cap hit.  It’s not JG’s fault that the Niners overpaid him.  (I read that his cap hit is the highest percentage of any player in the league.). He’s a solid QB in the 8 games or so a year that he’s actually healthy.  But he’s not worth anything close to $27 million.  And that, coupled with a franchise decision to trade multiple first rounders for Lance, leads to the obvious conclusion that he will be gone next year.

Strongly disagree, there's a good market for him. His health is a wild card which could make him untradeable, but if he checks out physically his salary is actually reasonable relative to his ability, and there will be teams willing to give up a day two pick for him.

We have very different perceptions of his market so we'll have to wait and see. I do agree that he's likely playing elsewhere next year.

Agreed.  Right now, he's not even a Top 10 paid QB (#10 is Matt Ryan at $30 million), but he's #9 in regular season passer rating and #13 in QBR.  Seems appropriate.

I don't think that analysis is the correct one. 
The correct one is what would a team sign Jimmy for if they could do so on the open market?  
Do you think anyone would throw $27M at him for one year?  I do not.  
Pay $27M AND give up a R3 draft pick for him?  Sounds crazy to me.

And let's be real, passer rating isn't the definitive measure to rank NFL QBs.  There are 15 other QBs teams would take over Jimmy.  Off the top of my head:  Mahomes, Allen, Burrows, Brady, Rodgers, Stafford, Herbert, Carr, Dak, Murray, Wilson, Cousins, Jackson, Mills, Lawrence, and Goff.  There may be others (Mac Jones?); and you might dispute one or two from that list.  But still, the point holds.  Jimmy ain't 10th best QB in league despite passer rating.

[Mick]

Whoa!  Hang on.  Sam Jones was a lot more than “Basically nobody”.  Jones had a couple darn good years for the Giants, including a stellar 1959 season.  You can list the infamous George Foster trade or Gaylord Perry for Sam McDowell as bombs but not White for Jones. 

As for Jimmy G. - a draft choice will be the return on the deal.

Sam's the answer to an interesting trivia question: Has anyone ever led the league with 20+ losses, but been on the All Star team?  Yes!  Sam was 14-20 for the 1950 Cubs.  4.10 ERA, led the league with 185 walks (most walks in a season after 1900 by someone not named Nolan Ryan or Bob Feller).  He then went 21-15 for the Giants in 195 and 18-14 the next year.

[Mick]

Whoa!  Hang on.  Sam Jones was a lot more than “Basically nobody”.  Jones had a couple darn good years for the Giants, including a stellar 1959 season.  You can list the infamous George Foster trade or Gaylord Perry for Sam McDowell as bombs but not White for Jones. 

As for Jimmy G. - a draft choice will be the return on the deal.

Sam's the answer to an interesting trivia question: Has anyone ever led the league with 20+ losses, but been on the All Star team?  Yes!  Sam was 14-20 for the 1950 Cubs.  4.10 ERA, led the league with 185 walks (most walks in a season after 1900 by someone not named Nolan Ryan or Bob Feller).  He then went 21-15 for the Giants in 195 and 18-14 the next year.

[old spanish trail]

Who presents the bigger challenge Tampa or LA?

Wouldn't want to play LA again. Of course, I said the same before the last game.

Hard to beat a team seven straight times…..

---

Deebo is Superman. I'm with ya Hogge re Jimmy. Would love to see the dilemma. Lex, is there any way out of the $27 mill problem?

I suspect they could renegotiate/ restructure the contract, but I think that is highly unlikely.

That's what I was thinking, that they could renegotiate and restructure the K, and I don't think it's out of the question if he plays even just fairly well in the next (hopefully) two games.

[old spanish trail]

Who presents the bigger challenge Tampa or LA?

Wouldn't want to play LA again. Of course, I said the same before the last game.

Hard to beat a team seven straight times…..

---

Deebo is Superman. I'm with ya Hogge re Jimmy. Would love to see the dilemma. Lex, is there any way out of the $27 mill problem?

I suspect they could renegotiate/ restructure the contract, but I think that is highly unlikely.

That's what I was thinking, that they could renegotiate and restructure the K, and I don't think it's out of the question if he plays even just fairly well in the next (hopefully) two games.

[DC 86]

Deebo is Superman. I'm with ya Hogge re Jimmy. Would love to see the dilemma. Lex, is there any way out of the $27 mill problem?

I'm not sure why this is called a "problem". We're in a world where Carson Wentz, Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff all have contracts that average over $32 million per year. If Garopollo was a free agent on the open market he would make at least $27 million per year. It may be to SF's advantage to trade Garopollo, but keeping both him and Lance (who is on a rookie contract, $7.75 million cap hit next year) is a manageable option as well. For contrast, Kirk Cousins alone has a $45 million cap hit next year.

SF is in a great position where they can trade Garopollo if it makes sense, or keep him without being in an onerous salary cap situation. Note that the NFL salary cap for each team is rising by $25.7 million next year to $208.2 million, a fairly significant 14.1% increase.

---

Good chance they will have to release him. That’s only a 1.4 million cap hit.  It’s not JG’s fault that the Niners overpaid him.  (I read that his cap hit is the highest percentage of any player in the league.). He’s a solid QB in the 8 games or so a year that he’s actually healthy.  But he’s not worth anything close to $27 million.  And that, coupled with a franchise decision to trade multiple first rounders for Lance, leads to the obvious conclusion that he will be gone next year.

Strongly disagree, there's a good market for him. His health is a wild card which could make him untradeable, but if he checks out physically his salary is actually reasonable relative to his ability, and there will be teams willing to give up a day two pick for him.

We have very different perceptions of his market so we'll have to wait and see. I do agree that he's likely playing elsewhere next year.

Agreed.  Right now, he's not even a Top 10 paid QB (#10 is Matt Ryan at $30 million), but he's #9 in regular season passer rating and #13 in QBR.  Seems appropriate.

I don't think that analysis is the correct one. 
The correct one is what would a team sign Jimmy for if they could do so on the open market?  
Do you think anyone would throw $27M at him for one year?  I do not.  
Pay $27M AND give up a R3 draft pick for him?  Sounds crazy to me.

And let's be real, passer rating isn't the definitive measure to rank NFL QBs.  There are 15 other QBs teams would take over Jimmy.  Off the top of my head:  Mahomes, Allen, Burrows, Brady, Rodgers, Stafford, Herbert, Carr, Dak, Murray, Wilson, Cousins, Jackson, Mills, Lawrence, and Goff.  There may be others (Mac Jones?); and you might dispute one or two from that list.  But still, the point holds.  Jimmy ain't 10th best QB in league despite passer rating.

The problem with your analysis is that Burrows, Herbert, Murray, Jackson, Mills and Lawrence are all on artificially low rookie contracts. If they were free agents they would all (with the exception of Mills, who is certainly not valued higher than Garopollo by anyone at the moment) be paid $35 million+, meaning that Garopollo's $27 million would actually be somewhere between market and an underpay. He has the 12th highest projected 2022 QB salary but if those players on rookie contracts (and others) were declared free agents and able to negotiate on the open market then JG's salary next year would rank somewhere around 18th - 20th. Also consider that the NFL salary cap going up a lot next year is going to result in a slew of overpaid free agents, making many existing contracts look like bargains.

I'm very confident that either SF or another team (giving up at least a third round pick) will be paying $27 million for JG's services next year, we shall see.

---

That's what I was thinking, that they could renegotiate and restructure the K, and I don't think it's out of the question if he plays even just fairly well in the next (hopefully) two games.

Renegotiate and restructure how exactly? the only way would be by extending him to a long term contract, which wouldn't be for a lower value. That makes no sense unless they have already determined that Lance is a complete bust (very unlikely) and that they won't be re-signing him beyond his rookie contract. You can't have two quarterbacks earning starter salaries.

[DC 86]

Deebo is Superman. I'm with ya Hogge re Jimmy. Would love to see the dilemma. Lex, is there any way out of the $27 mill problem?

I'm not sure why this is called a "problem". We're in a world where Carson Wentz, Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff all have contracts that average over $32 million per year. If Garopollo was a free agent on the open market he would make at least $27 million per year. It may be to SF's advantage to trade Garopollo, but keeping both him and Lance (who is on a rookie contract, $7.75 million cap hit next year) is a manageable option as well. For contrast, Kirk Cousins alone has a $45 million cap hit next year.

SF is in a great position where they can trade Garopollo if it makes sense, or keep him without being in an onerous salary cap situation. Note that the NFL salary cap for each team is rising by $25.7 million next year to $208.2 million, a fairly significant 14.1% increase.

---

Good chance they will have to release him. That’s only a 1.4 million cap hit.  It’s not JG’s fault that the Niners overpaid him.  (I read that his cap hit is the highest percentage of any player in the league.). He’s a solid QB in the 8 games or so a year that he’s actually healthy.  But he’s not worth anything close to $27 million.  And that, coupled with a franchise decision to trade multiple first rounders for Lance, leads to the obvious conclusion that he will be gone next year.

Strongly disagree, there's a good market for him. His health is a wild card which could make him untradeable, but if he checks out physically his salary is actually reasonable relative to his ability, and there will be teams willing to give up a day two pick for him.

We have very different perceptions of his market so we'll have to wait and see. I do agree that he's likely playing elsewhere next year.

Agreed.  Right now, he's not even a Top 10 paid QB (#10 is Matt Ryan at $30 million), but he's #9 in regular season passer rating and #13 in QBR.  Seems appropriate.

I don't think that analysis is the correct one. 
The correct one is what would a team sign Jimmy for if they could do so on the open market?  
Do you think anyone would throw $27M at him for one year?  I do not.  
Pay $27M AND give up a R3 draft pick for him?  Sounds crazy to me.

And let's be real, passer rating isn't the definitive measure to rank NFL QBs.  There are 15 other QBs teams would take over Jimmy.  Off the top of my head:  Mahomes, Allen, Burrows, Brady, Rodgers, Stafford, Herbert, Carr, Dak, Murray, Wilson, Cousins, Jackson, Mills, Lawrence, and Goff.  There may be others (Mac Jones?); and you might dispute one or two from that list.  But still, the point holds.  Jimmy ain't 10th best QB in league despite passer rating.

The problem with your analysis is that Burrows, Herbert, Murray, Jackson, Mills and Lawrence are all on artificially low rookie contracts. If they were free agents they would all (with the exception of Mills, who is certainly not valued higher than Garopollo by anyone at the moment) be paid $35 million+, meaning that Garopollo's $27 million would actually be somewhere between market and an underpay. He has the 12th highest projected 2022 QB salary but if those players on rookie contracts (and others) were declared free agents and able to negotiate on the open market then JG's salary next year would rank somewhere around 18th - 20th. Also consider that the NFL salary cap going up a lot next year is going to result in a slew of overpaid free agents, making many existing contracts look like bargains.

I'm very confident that either SF or another team (giving up at least a third round pick) will be paying $27 million for JG's services next year, we shall see.

---

That's what I was thinking, that they could renegotiate and restructure the K, and I don't think it's out of the question if he plays even just fairly well in the next (hopefully) two games.

Renegotiate and restructure how exactly? the only way would be by extending him to a long term contract, which wouldn't be for a lower value. That makes no sense unless they have already determined that Lance is a complete bust (very unlikely) and that they won't be re-signing him beyond his rookie contract. You can't have two quarterbacks earning starter salaries.

[teejers1]

---

Agreed.  Right now, he's not even a Top 10 paid QB (#10 is Matt Ryan at $30 million), but he's #9 in regular season passer rating and #13 in QBR.  Seems appropriate.

I don't think that analysis is the correct one. 
The correct one is what would a team sign Jimmy for if they could do so on the open market?  
Do you think anyone would throw $27M at him for one year?  I do not.  
Pay $27M AND give up a R3 draft pick for him?  Sounds crazy to me.

And let's be real, passer rating isn't the definitive measure to rank NFL QBs.  There are 15 other QBs teams would take over Jimmy.  Off the top of my head:  Mahomes, Allen, Burrows, Brady, Rodgers, Stafford, Herbert, Carr, Dak, Murray, Wilson, Cousins, Jackson, Mills, Lawrence, and Goff.  There may be others (Mac Jones?); and you might dispute one or two from that list.  But still, the point holds.  Jimmy ain't 10th best QB in league despite passer rating.
[/quote]

The problem with your analysis is that Burrows, Herbert, Murray, Jackson, Mills and Lawrence are all on artificially low rookie contracts. If they were free agents they would all (with the exception of Mills, who is certainly not valued higher than Garopollo by anyone at the moment) be paid $35 million+, meaning that Garopollo's $27 million would actually be somewhere between market and an underpay. He has the 12th highest projected 2022 QB salary but if those players on rookie contracts (and others) were declared free agents and able to negotiate on the open market then JG's salary next year would rank somewhere around 18th - 20th. Also consider that the NFL salary cap going up a lot next year is going to result in a slew of overpaid free agents, making many existing contracts look like bargains.

I'm very confident that either SF or another team (giving up at least a third round pick) will be paying $27 million for JG's services next year, we shall see.
[/quote]

DC, your logic is sound - and I hope you're right.

I still have a hard time believing anyone would sign Jimmy for $27M straight up, let alone also giving up a R3 QB.  A lot of QBs are overpaid, and sooner or later, teams are going to realize that.  I mean, really, how much better is Jimmy G. than a Mariota?  I think Mariota would fare quite nicely on this SF team, as would a bunch of other QBs.

[teejers1]

---

Agreed.  Right now, he's not even a Top 10 paid QB (#10 is Matt Ryan at $30 million), but he's #9 in regular season passer rating and #13 in QBR.  Seems appropriate.

I don't think that analysis is the correct one. 
The correct one is what would a team sign Jimmy for if they could do so on the open market?  
Do you think anyone would throw $27M at him for one year?  I do not.  
Pay $27M AND give up a R3 draft pick for him?  Sounds crazy to me.

And let's be real, passer rating isn't the definitive measure to rank NFL QBs.  There are 15 other QBs teams would take over Jimmy.  Off the top of my head:  Mahomes, Allen, Burrows, Brady, Rodgers, Stafford, Herbert, Carr, Dak, Murray, Wilson, Cousins, Jackson, Mills, Lawrence, and Goff.  There may be others (Mac Jones?); and you might dispute one or two from that list.  But still, the point holds.  Jimmy ain't 10th best QB in league despite passer rating.
[/quote]

The problem with your analysis is that Burrows, Herbert, Murray, Jackson, Mills and Lawrence are all on artificially low rookie contracts. If they were free agents they would all (with the exception of Mills, who is certainly not valued higher than Garopollo by anyone at the moment) be paid $35 million+, meaning that Garopollo's $27 million would actually be somewhere between market and an underpay. He has the 12th highest projected 2022 QB salary but if those players on rookie contracts (and others) were declared free agents and able to negotiate on the open market then JG's salary next year would rank somewhere around 18th - 20th. Also consider that the NFL salary cap going up a lot next year is going to result in a slew of overpaid free agents, making many existing contracts look like bargains.

I'm very confident that either SF or another team (giving up at least a third round pick) will be paying $27 million for JG's services next year, we shall see.
[/quote]

DC, your logic is sound - and I hope you're right.

I still have a hard time believing anyone would sign Jimmy for $27M straight up, let alone also giving up a R3 QB.  A lot of QBs are overpaid, and sooner or later, teams are going to realize that.  I mean, really, how much better is Jimmy G. than a Mariota?  I think Mariota would fare quite nicely on this SF team, as would a bunch of other QBs.

[Phogge]

Carr is a loser. Jimmy is a winner.

[Phogge]

Carr is a loser. Jimmy is a winner.

[lex24]

Deebo is Superman. I'm with ya Hogge re Jimmy. Would love to see the dilemma. Lex, is there any way out of the $27 mill problem?

I'm not sure why this is called a "problem". We're in a world where Carson Wentz, Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff all have contracts that average over $32 million per year. If Garopollo was a free agent on the open market he would make at least $27 million per year. It may be to SF's advantage to trade Garopollo, but keeping both him and Lance (who is on a rookie contract, $7.75 million cap hit next year) is a manageable option as well. For contrast, Kirk Cousins alone has a $45 million cap hit next year.

SF is in a great position where they can trade Garopollo if it makes sense, or keep him without being in an onerous salary cap situation. Note that the NFL salary cap for each team is rising by $25.7 million next year to $208.2 million, a fairly significant 14.1% increase.

---

Good chance they will have to release him. That’s only a 1.4 million cap hit.  It’s not JG’s fault that the Niners overpaid him.  (I read that his cap hit is the highest percentage of any player in the league.). He’s a solid QB in the 8 games or so a year that he’s actually healthy.  But he’s not worth anything close to $27 million.  And that, coupled with a franchise decision to trade multiple first rounders for Lance, leads to the obvious conclusion that he will be gone next year.

Strongly disagree, there's a good market for him. His health is a wild card which could make him untradeable, but if he checks out physically his salary is actually reasonable relative to his ability, and there will be teams willing to give up a day two pick for him.

We have very different perceptions of his market so we'll have to wait and see. I do agree that he's likely playing elsewhere next year.

Agreed.  Right now, he's not even a Top 10 paid QB (#10 is Matt Ryan at $30 million), but he's #9 in regular season passer rating and #13 in QBR.  Seems appropriate.

I don't think that analysis is the correct one. 
The correct one is what would a team sign Jimmy for if they could do so on the open market?  
Do you think anyone would throw $27M at him for one year?  I do not.  
Pay $27M AND give up a R3 draft pick for him?  Sounds crazy to me.

And let's be real, passer rating isn't the definitive measure to rank NFL QBs.  There are 15 other QBs teams would take over Jimmy.  Off the top of my head:  Mahomes, Allen, Burrows, Brady, Rodgers, Stafford, Herbert, Carr, Dak, Murray, Wilson, Cousins, Jackson, Mills, Lawrence, and Goff.  There may be others (Mac Jones?); and you might dispute one or two from that list.  But still, the point holds.  Jimmy ain't 10th best QB in league despite passer rating.

The problem with your analysis is that Burrows, Herbert, Murray, Jackson, Mills and Lawrence are all on artificially low rookie contracts. If they were free agents they would all (with the exception of Mills, who is certainly not valued higher than Garopollo by anyone at the moment) be paid $35 million+, meaning that Garopollo's $27 million would actually be somewhere between market and an underpay. He has the 12th highest projected 2022 QB salary but if those players on rookie contracts (and others) were declared free agents and able to negotiate on the open market then JG's salary next year would rank somewhere around 18th - 20th. Also consider that the NFL salary cap going up a lot next year is going to result in a slew of overpaid free agents, making many existing contracts look like bargains.

I'm very confident that either SF or another team (giving up at least a third round pick) will be paying $27 million for JG's services next year, we shall see.

---

That's what I was thinking, that they could renegotiate and restructure the K, and I don't think it's out of the question if he plays even just fairly well in the next (hopefully) two games.

Renegotiate and restructure how exactly? the only way would be by extending him to a long term contract, which wouldn't be for a lower value. That makes no sense unless they have already determined that Lance is a complete bust (very unlikely) and that they won't be re-signing him beyond his rookie contract. You can't have two quarterbacks earning starter salaries.

The question as I understood it was  whether it was possible.  I indicated yes, but highly unlikely.  But the “Phogge dilemma” is an interesting one.  And I’m hoping for it.  How do you trade a QB that just presided over an SB win?  

Changing the subject - when was the last time Niners blocked an FG and a punt for a TD in a game.  Im guessing never.  On that punt, the punter did a little half step.  Not sure if that’s his normal release.  I doubt it.  

Finally, Gould.  What an amazing kick.

---

Who presents the bigger challenge Tampa or LA?

Tampa, though either will be tough.  But if Jimmy doesn't implode with bad picks, then the 'Niners should make either team "earn it."

Only watched Q4, but my favorite play was by the coaching staff:  to call a RUN on third and 7 with about a minute left and GB with no timeouts left (not sure why GB called those two timeouts - going 80 yards in those conditions with 0 timeouts and about 30 seconds?  Extremely unlikely, and you want a TO left if for no other reason than to potentially get in head of opposing PK).  Calling a run there guaranteed the 'Niners would go OT as a worse case scenario.  Shanahan may be learning.  BTW, noticed they called a timeout before ultimately running that play, but it looked like the same formation pre and post timeout.  It wouldn't surprise me if somebody had to persuade somebody that a running play was the right call.  It was.  Good for Shanahan; good for the 'Niners.

P.S.  I heard on TV that Burrow was sacked 9 times and Cincy still one.  That is mind-boggling . . .

Nothing surprising about the run call.  Pass game struggled on a host of fronts.  Receivers struggled catching the ball, Compton was getting smoked all night, pressure on JG consistent. Field was getting dicey.  GB was out of time outs.  So if they don’t make it, they have no time to get in FG range.  Finally, get the ball to your best player in that situation.  He did.

[lex24]

Deebo is Superman. I'm with ya Hogge re Jimmy. Would love to see the dilemma. Lex, is there any way out of the $27 mill problem?

I'm not sure why this is called a "problem". We're in a world where Carson Wentz, Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff all have contracts that average over $32 million per year. If Garopollo was a free agent on the open market he would make at least $27 million per year. It may be to SF's advantage to trade Garopollo, but keeping both him and Lance (who is on a rookie contract, $7.75 million cap hit next year) is a manageable option as well. For contrast, Kirk Cousins alone has a $45 million cap hit next year.

SF is in a great position where they can trade Garopollo if it makes sense, or keep him without being in an onerous salary cap situation. Note that the NFL salary cap for each team is rising by $25.7 million next year to $208.2 million, a fairly significant 14.1% increase.

---

Good chance they will have to release him. That’s only a 1.4 million cap hit.  It’s not JG’s fault that the Niners overpaid him.  (I read that his cap hit is the highest percentage of any player in the league.). He’s a solid QB in the 8 games or so a year that he’s actually healthy.  But he’s not worth anything close to $27 million.  And that, coupled with a franchise decision to trade multiple first rounders for Lance, leads to the obvious conclusion that he will be gone next year.

Strongly disagree, there's a good market for him. His health is a wild card which could make him untradeable, but if he checks out physically his salary is actually reasonable relative to his ability, and there will be teams willing to give up a day two pick for him.

We have very different perceptions of his market so we'll have to wait and see. I do agree that he's likely playing elsewhere next year.

Agreed.  Right now, he's not even a Top 10 paid QB (#10 is Matt Ryan at $30 million), but he's #9 in regular season passer rating and #13 in QBR.  Seems appropriate.

I don't think that analysis is the correct one. 
The correct one is what would a team sign Jimmy for if they could do so on the open market?  
Do you think anyone would throw $27M at him for one year?  I do not.  
Pay $27M AND give up a R3 draft pick for him?  Sounds crazy to me.

And let's be real, passer rating isn't the definitive measure to rank NFL QBs.  There are 15 other QBs teams would take over Jimmy.  Off the top of my head:  Mahomes, Allen, Burrows, Brady, Rodgers, Stafford, Herbert, Carr, Dak, Murray, Wilson, Cousins, Jackson, Mills, Lawrence, and Goff.  There may be others (Mac Jones?); and you might dispute one or two from that list.  But still, the point holds.  Jimmy ain't 10th best QB in league despite passer rating.

The problem with your analysis is that Burrows, Herbert, Murray, Jackson, Mills and Lawrence are all on artificially low rookie contracts. If they were free agents they would all (with the exception of Mills, who is certainly not valued higher than Garopollo by anyone at the moment) be paid $35 million+, meaning that Garopollo's $27 million would actually be somewhere between market and an underpay. He has the 12th highest projected 2022 QB salary but if those players on rookie contracts (and others) were declared free agents and able to negotiate on the open market then JG's salary next year would rank somewhere around 18th - 20th. Also consider that the NFL salary cap going up a lot next year is going to result in a slew of overpaid free agents, making many existing contracts look like bargains.

I'm very confident that either SF or another team (giving up at least a third round pick) will be paying $27 million for JG's services next year, we shall see.

---

That's what I was thinking, that they could renegotiate and restructure the K, and I don't think it's out of the question if he plays even just fairly well in the next (hopefully) two games.

Renegotiate and restructure how exactly? the only way would be by extending him to a long term contract, which wouldn't be for a lower value. That makes no sense unless they have already determined that Lance is a complete bust (very unlikely) and that they won't be re-signing him beyond his rookie contract. You can't have two quarterbacks earning starter salaries.

The question as I understood it was  whether it was possible.  I indicated yes, but highly unlikely.  But the “Phogge dilemma” is an interesting one.  And I’m hoping for it.  How do you trade a QB that just presided over an SB win?  

Changing the subject - when was the last time Niners blocked an FG and a punt for a TD in a game.  Im guessing never.  On that punt, the punter did a little half step.  Not sure if that’s his normal release.  I doubt it.  

Finally, Gould.  What an amazing kick.

---

Who presents the bigger challenge Tampa or LA?

Tampa, though either will be tough.  But if Jimmy doesn't implode with bad picks, then the 'Niners should make either team "earn it."

Only watched Q4, but my favorite play was by the coaching staff:  to call a RUN on third and 7 with about a minute left and GB with no timeouts left (not sure why GB called those two timeouts - going 80 yards in those conditions with 0 timeouts and about 30 seconds?  Extremely unlikely, and you want a TO left if for no other reason than to potentially get in head of opposing PK).  Calling a run there guaranteed the 'Niners would go OT as a worse case scenario.  Shanahan may be learning.  BTW, noticed they called a timeout before ultimately running that play, but it looked like the same formation pre and post timeout.  It wouldn't surprise me if somebody had to persuade somebody that a running play was the right call.  It was.  Good for Shanahan; good for the 'Niners.

P.S.  I heard on TV that Burrow was sacked 9 times and Cincy still one.  That is mind-boggling . . .

Nothing surprising about the run call.  Pass game struggled on a host of fronts.  Receivers struggled catching the ball, Compton was getting smoked all night, pressure on JG consistent. Field was getting dicey.  GB was out of time outs.  So if they don’t make it, they have no time to get in FG range.  Finally, get the ball to your best player in that situation.  He did.

[DC 86]

The question as I understood it was  whether it was possible.  I indicated yes, but highly unlikely.  But the “Phogge dilemma” is an interesting one.  And I’m hoping for it.  How do you trade a QB that just presided over an SB win?  

There is precedent: Trent Dilfer was the Ravens starting quarterback when they won Super Bowl 35 and he was released that same offseason and replaced by Elvis Grbac.

I don't get the feeling that this regime is moved by P.R. considerations or sentiment; their decision hinges on whether they feel that Lance is ready to be a full time starter and perform at least at Garopollo's level next year.

In any case, there is no "problem", only options (and only two of them):

1. Keep Garopollo for another year as they transition to Lance; they would still only be alotting less than 13% of the salary cap to their starting quarterback and less than 4% to their backup. This is a risk averse strategy but not one that hampers roster construction.

2. Trade Garopollo and sign a veteran backup meaning they would be alotting only around 8% of the salary cap to their quarterbacks while adding assets received in trade for JG. This is riskier in that it assumes that Lance will be capable of leading the team deep into the playoffs but it provides the opportunity to significantly upgrade the roster at multiple other positions.

[DC 86]

The question as I understood it was  whether it was possible.  I indicated yes, but highly unlikely.  But the “Phogge dilemma” is an interesting one.  And I’m hoping for it.  How do you trade a QB that just presided over an SB win?  

There is precedent: Trent Dilfer was the Ravens starting quarterback when they won Super Bowl 35 and he was released that same offseason and replaced by Elvis Grbac.

I don't get the feeling that this regime is moved by P.R. considerations or sentiment; their decision hinges on whether they feel that Lance is ready to be a full time starter and perform at least at Garopollo's level next year.

In any case, there is no "problem", only options (and only two of them):

1. Keep Garopollo for another year as they transition to Lance; they would still only be alotting less than 13% of the salary cap to their starting quarterback and less than 4% to their backup. This is a risk averse strategy but not one that hampers roster construction.

2. Trade Garopollo and sign a veteran backup meaning they would be alotting only around 8% of the salary cap to their quarterbacks while adding assets received in trade for JG. This is riskier in that it assumes that Lance will be capable of leading the team deep into the playoffs but it provides the opportunity to significantly upgrade the roster at multiple other positions.

[Goose]

But the “Phogge dilemma” is an interesting one.  And I’m hoping for it.  How do you trade a QB that just presided over an SB win?  

Indeed it is. On the one hand, the fans would go nuts when you did it. OTOH, you are "selling" the guy who just won the SB. He is a very, very valuable commodity (or that would be the negotiating position anyway). The buyer would get lots of good publicity for making such a great aggressive move. It would take a lot of courage by the 49ers to do it, but hopefully we will get the opportunity to see if they do.

On the salary cap front, the 49ers have several key pieces that are much younger than JG on expiring contracts. The 49ers need to keep these guys and these guys expect to "get paid". The 27M isn't of itself the problem. It is the other demands on the cap space that make it a problem. It may come down to the player/draft choice they can get for JG, not just the money. If they win it all, it will indeed be real interesting.

[Goose]

But the “Phogge dilemma” is an interesting one.  And I’m hoping for it.  How do you trade a QB that just presided over an SB win?  

Indeed it is. On the one hand, the fans would go nuts when you did it. OTOH, you are "selling" the guy who just won the SB. He is a very, very valuable commodity (or that would be the negotiating position anyway). The buyer would get lots of good publicity for making such a great aggressive move. It would take a lot of courage by the 49ers to do it, but hopefully we will get the opportunity to see if they do.

On the salary cap front, the 49ers have several key pieces that are much younger than JG on expiring contracts. The 49ers need to keep these guys and these guys expect to "get paid". The 27M isn't of itself the problem. It is the other demands on the cap space that make it a problem. It may come down to the player/draft choice they can get for JG, not just the money. If they win it all, it will indeed be real interesting.

[lex24]

Cap items that certainly in the mix- Samuels is due for an extension.   Bosa is right behind.  Having a QB on a below market salary makes those two easier to lock up.

[lex24]

Cap items that certainly in the mix- Samuels is due for an extension.   Bosa is right behind.  Having a QB on a below market salary makes those two easier to lock up.

[DC 86]

Cap items that certainly in the mix- Samuels is due for an extension.   Bosa is right behind.  Having a QB on a below market salary makes those two easier to lock up.

Absolutely, that's why I have stated that I think it's more likely that JG is traded regardless of what happens the rest of this season, but the $27 mm cap number itself isn't onerous (and it's really more like $19 mm net since they would need an upper tier backup to replace him and provide cover fro Lance).

But the good thing about extensions for elite players such as Samuels and Bosa is that they can be structured with an enormous signing bonus and minimal first year salary so that those contracts don't create short term cap pressure. They are signed through 2023 and 2024 respectively, so they shouldn't impact the 2022 cap.

[DC 86]

Cap items that certainly in the mix- Samuels is due for an extension.   Bosa is right behind.  Having a QB on a below market salary makes those two easier to lock up.

Absolutely, that's why I have stated that I think it's more likely that JG is traded regardless of what happens the rest of this season, but the $27 mm cap number itself isn't onerous (and it's really more like $19 mm net since they would need an upper tier backup to replace him and provide cover fro Lance).

But the good thing about extensions for elite players such as Samuels and Bosa is that they can be structured with an enormous signing bonus and minimal first year salary so that those contracts don't create short term cap pressure. They are signed through 2023 and 2024 respectively, so they shouldn't impact the 2022 cap.