(05-12-2022, 01:01 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: Back to the current season, NCAA.com projects Stanford to be a 15 seed and regional host when the field is announced 2 weeks from Monday.
https://www.ncaa.com/news/baseball/artic...s-field-64
As always, Stanford's treatment in NCAA seeding will be largely determined by just how the committee uses the RPI.
The RPI should be discarded altogether. Even in concept it's not much of a power rating, more of a bad strength of schedule rating. In practice it has clear mathematical bias against the top west coast teams (which is combined with a bias towards bottom west coast teams - but that doesn't affect NCAA tournament selection).
The RPI's main advantage is that it is simple and totally transparent. With little effort, anyone can reproduce it. The basketball NET rating is almost certainly a better power rating than the RPI, but it's complicated and not easily reproduced independently.
It is also clear that the authors of that projection don't really believe it is appropriate themselves. Two of the three are at D1Baseball and produce the D1Baseball rankings. That ranking has Stanford #8 and Gonzaga #11 - but they get overall seeds of #15 and #16 because of RPI rankings of 24 (at that time) and somewhere around 26 (currently 24).
There are a few years where the NCAA seeding looks more like the polls and less like RPI, but most of the time seeding looks far too much like the RPI.
Since that article was written, Stanford has moved up to 21 in RPI. That changes daily. I am not sure how much Stanford moved up or others moved down, but winning at San Francisco was helpful because road wins count more.
Going forward, there are 4 road games, 3 home games, and as many neutral as we manage in the conference tournament. Fortunately both Utah and $C have winning records overall, even if losing records in conference. Santa Clara also has a winning record overall right now, though finishing with three on the road at TCU will make it tough to stay that way.
Overall, Stanford seems to be in good enough shape that IF they win the majority of their remaining games, they should host first round (top 16). I suspect a top 8 seed will be tough to get.