Stanford will be gunning for their 20th win - and their 3rd consecutive Senior Night victory. NC State is 19-11 (like Stanford), 10-7 in the ACC, & 11-5 at home. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games, but the Wolfpack is favored by 8.5. The over/under is 152.5, so the implied score is 80.5-72. Last season at Maples, Stanford won 74-73. NC State scored with 18 seconds left to take the lead. Then Ryan Agarwal got the inbounds pass, drove the length of the court and scored on an 8-foot runner for the game-winning shot.
NC State has relied on a balanced attack. they have 4 starters all scoring between 13.5 & 14.4 points per game. They lead the ACC in turnovers (only 9.2/game), turnover margin (+3.8), assists/TOs (1.73), steals (8.3/game), and 3s% (38.1). They are 2nd in 3s (10.4/game) and 3rd in scoring (83.5 ppg) & attendance (16,180/game). One thing that I hope will work in Stanford's favor - the Wolfpack is 17th in the ACC in opponent's 3s% at 34.9.
NC State has had a pretty set starting five:
#11 Quadir Copeland (6'6/220 Sr G) 2 seasons at Syracuse, 1 at McNeese (followed Coach Will Wade from McNeese to NC State). 13.6ppg. Leads ACC in assists (6.8/game), #4 with 2.60 assists/TO, #5 with 1.85 3s/game, and #18 with 77.2% on FTs.
#22 Ven-Allen Lubin (6'9/250 Sr F) a 4-4 guy with one season each at Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, & North Carolina. 13.6 ppg & 7.0 rebounds/game. Leads ACC with 68.2% on FGs. 20th in blocks with 0.9/game.
#1 Darrion Williams (6'6/225 Sr F) Mountain West Freshman of the Year at Nevada, then 3rd & 1st team All-Big 12 in 2 seasons at Texas Tech. 14.4ppg (#21 in ACC) on 41.8% FGs (#20). 11th in ACC with 2.3 3s/game and 22nd with 2.8 assists/game.
#2 Paul McNeil Jr. (6'5/190 So G) 13.5ppg. 2nd in ACC in both 3s (3.0/game) & 3s%(41.4). Only player on the roster who played in last season's loss at Maples.
#5 Tre Holloman (6'2/195 Sr G) 3 seasons at Michigan State. Started (as usual) vs. Duke, but only played 5 minutes. Not sure if there was an injury, but, but he is not included in the ACC injury report.
Five other players are likely to see action: #3 Matt Able (6'6/205 Fr G); #21 Terrence Arceneaux (6'6/205 RJr G) - 3 seasons at Houston; #13 Musa Sagnia (6'10/235 Fr F) - a 23-year old freshman from The Gambia (like The Ohio State University - or The CW?) with 4 years of experience in Liga ACB, Spain's top pro basketball division; #7 Alyn Breed (6'3/200 RSr G) another McNeese transfer; and Scottie Ebube (6'10/280 Sr C) from Southern Illinois (3 years) & Wyoming (1 year).
Stanford will finish 10th, 11th, or 12th in the ACC, so will have a 1st-round ACC tourney game on Tuesday vs. Syracuse, Wake Forest, Notre Dame, or Pitt. NC State is locked into a 1st round bye. But both teams will still be desperate for a win. The Wolfpack wants to halt their recent skid, send 7 seniors (one of whom actually spent his entire college career at NC State) out with a win, and solidify (or improve) their projection as a #9 seed in the NCAA tourney. Stanford wants to carry a 4-game winning streak into the ACC tourney, get a 5th Quad 1 win, keep their (really, really) faint NCAA tourney hopes alive, or at least get a good enough seed for a home game (or 2 or 3) in the NIT tourney.
Two weeks ago, I didn't think Stanford had any reasonable shot at a win in Raleigh. I would still be very pleasantly surprised, but no longer shocked, by a Cardinal victory. It would be their best true road win of the season (the Saint Louis win was on a neutral court - and in the Pacific time zone). It will likely require another strong effort from Ebuka, backed up by solid contributions from pretty much everyone else. They've delivered that at times throughout the season, but will need it consistently down the stretch.
NC State has relied on a balanced attack. they have 4 starters all scoring between 13.5 & 14.4 points per game. They lead the ACC in turnovers (only 9.2/game), turnover margin (+3.8), assists/TOs (1.73), steals (8.3/game), and 3s% (38.1). They are 2nd in 3s (10.4/game) and 3rd in scoring (83.5 ppg) & attendance (16,180/game). One thing that I hope will work in Stanford's favor - the Wolfpack is 17th in the ACC in opponent's 3s% at 34.9.
NC State has had a pretty set starting five:
#11 Quadir Copeland (6'6/220 Sr G) 2 seasons at Syracuse, 1 at McNeese (followed Coach Will Wade from McNeese to NC State). 13.6ppg. Leads ACC in assists (6.8/game), #4 with 2.60 assists/TO, #5 with 1.85 3s/game, and #18 with 77.2% on FTs.
#22 Ven-Allen Lubin (6'9/250 Sr F) a 4-4 guy with one season each at Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, & North Carolina. 13.6 ppg & 7.0 rebounds/game. Leads ACC with 68.2% on FGs. 20th in blocks with 0.9/game.
#1 Darrion Williams (6'6/225 Sr F) Mountain West Freshman of the Year at Nevada, then 3rd & 1st team All-Big 12 in 2 seasons at Texas Tech. 14.4ppg (#21 in ACC) on 41.8% FGs (#20). 11th in ACC with 2.3 3s/game and 22nd with 2.8 assists/game.
#2 Paul McNeil Jr. (6'5/190 So G) 13.5ppg. 2nd in ACC in both 3s (3.0/game) & 3s%(41.4). Only player on the roster who played in last season's loss at Maples.
#5 Tre Holloman (6'2/195 Sr G) 3 seasons at Michigan State. Started (as usual) vs. Duke, but only played 5 minutes. Not sure if there was an injury, but, but he is not included in the ACC injury report.
Five other players are likely to see action: #3 Matt Able (6'6/205 Fr G); #21 Terrence Arceneaux (6'6/205 RJr G) - 3 seasons at Houston; #13 Musa Sagnia (6'10/235 Fr F) - a 23-year old freshman from The Gambia (like The Ohio State University - or The CW?) with 4 years of experience in Liga ACB, Spain's top pro basketball division; #7 Alyn Breed (6'3/200 RSr G) another McNeese transfer; and Scottie Ebube (6'10/280 Sr C) from Southern Illinois (3 years) & Wyoming (1 year).
Stanford will finish 10th, 11th, or 12th in the ACC, so will have a 1st-round ACC tourney game on Tuesday vs. Syracuse, Wake Forest, Notre Dame, or Pitt. NC State is locked into a 1st round bye. But both teams will still be desperate for a win. The Wolfpack wants to halt their recent skid, send 7 seniors (one of whom actually spent his entire college career at NC State) out with a win, and solidify (or improve) their projection as a #9 seed in the NCAA tourney. Stanford wants to carry a 4-game winning streak into the ACC tourney, get a 5th Quad 1 win, keep their (really, really) faint NCAA tourney hopes alive, or at least get a good enough seed for a home game (or 2 or 3) in the NIT tourney.
Two weeks ago, I didn't think Stanford had any reasonable shot at a win in Raleigh. I would still be very pleasantly surprised, but no longer shocked, by a Cardinal victory. It would be their best true road win of the season (the Saint Louis win was on a neutral court - and in the Pacific time zone). It will likely require another strong effort from Ebuka, backed up by solid contributions from pretty much everyone else. They've delivered that at times throughout the season, but will need it consistently down the stretch.
