[TrumpCard]

The big question for any recruiting class is whether you take in more talent than you lose. While the class of 2016 looks to be in a strong spot, there's also quite a bit of outgoing talent in the classes of 2011 and 2012 to replace. Judging strictly by high school rankings, here are the once-upon-a-time-premium prospects we'll definitely be replacing (rated by 247 composite):

4/5 stars:
Kelsey Young
Wayne Lyons
Brandon Austin
Remound Wright
Kyle Murphy
Josh Garnett
Aziz Shittu
Luke Kaumatule

(Noor Davis, Jordan Watkins, and Barry Sanders seem like possible not-invited-for-fifth-year candidates; Ryan Burns or Keller Chryst are possible transfer candidates; Peter Kalambayi a possible leave-early guy.)

So that's eight definitely gone; figure ten as an estimate to retain the same rough talent level. Can we reach eight or ten -- or even exceed it? It would take a very strong effort by Stanford standards; the 2012 class brought in 11 premium prospects. (2014: 8; 2015: only 5).

I'll leave it to prognosticators whether or not it'll happen, but I see the 8-10 premium prospect range as the separation between likely success and failure.

(Note that we've already got four committed.)

I agree with your conclusion that Stanford needs at least 8 premium prospects to maintain a very high level of talent across the board.  I would go further and say that is generally true in any year.  Further, as far as I can tell, Stanford appears to be in a very good position to achieve that goal this year.  The class already includes 4 premium prospects, plus Stanford appears to lead for Yarbrough, Butler, Rand, Williams, and Long.  That would make 9.  My mini version of Hulk's list includes a number of other elite players who could easily join the class as well.  Stanford's position is so strong right now that the staff has decided to hold off on even offering a number of guys who might qualify as premium recruits (e.g. Wattenberg, Alves, Kemp, Quansah, and Eboh).  In sum, until further notice, I think you can feel pretty confident that Shaw is going to maintain or improve the overall talent level with the 2016 recruiting class.

[TrumpCard]

The big question for any recruiting class is whether you take in more talent than you lose. While the class of 2016 looks to be in a strong spot, there's also quite a bit of outgoing talent in the classes of 2011 and 2012 to replace. Judging strictly by high school rankings, here are the once-upon-a-time-premium prospects we'll definitely be replacing (rated by 247 composite):

4/5 stars:
Kelsey Young
Wayne Lyons
Brandon Austin
Remound Wright
Kyle Murphy
Josh Garnett
Aziz Shittu
Luke Kaumatule

(Noor Davis, Jordan Watkins, and Barry Sanders seem like possible not-invited-for-fifth-year candidates; Ryan Burns or Keller Chryst are possible transfer candidates; Peter Kalambayi a possible leave-early guy.)

So that's eight definitely gone; figure ten as an estimate to retain the same rough talent level. Can we reach eight or ten -- or even exceed it? It would take a very strong effort by Stanford standards; the 2012 class brought in 11 premium prospects. (2014: 8; 2015: only 5).

I'll leave it to prognosticators whether or not it'll happen, but I see the 8-10 premium prospect range as the separation between likely success and failure.

(Note that we've already got four committed.)

I agree with your conclusion that Stanford needs at least 8 premium prospects to maintain a very high level of talent across the board.  I would go further and say that is generally true in any year.  Further, as far as I can tell, Stanford appears to be in a very good position to achieve that goal this year.  The class already includes 4 premium prospects, plus Stanford appears to lead for Yarbrough, Butler, Rand, Williams, and Long.  That would make 9.  My mini version of Hulk's list includes a number of other elite players who could easily join the class as well.  Stanford's position is so strong right now that the staff has decided to hold off on even offering a number of guys who might qualify as premium recruits (e.g. Wattenberg, Alves, Kemp, Quansah, and Eboh).  In sum, until further notice, I think you can feel pretty confident that Shaw is going to maintain or improve the overall talent level with the 2016 recruiting class.