[BostonCard]

Far be it for me to disagree with WIM, but there are two points in your analysis that I take issue with.  It is very unlikely that incoming freshmen are going to replace graduating seniors.  Rather, the guys replacing the guys graduating pretty much are all already on the roster.  I think it is easier to think of recruitment in two-year cycles instead of four year cycles.  Thus, replacing Wayne Lyons isn't going to be done by a CB we are recruiting this year, but by a CB we recruited a couple years ago (presumably Terrence Alexander).  Likewise, when Hogan leaves after this year, he most likely won't be replaced by Costello, but rather by Chryst or Burns.

The second issue is the use of star ratings of guys who already have a track record in college.  When we talk about replacing Hogan, we aren't really talking about replacing 4* rated QB Kevin Hogan, we are talking about replacing 3.5 year starting QB (and hopefully by next year, an all-Pac-12 honoree Kevin Hogan).  It doesn't matter whether Hogan was a 2* or a 5*, since we have his track record in college.  Replacing 4* 2009 recruit Josh Nunes was trivial; replacing 2* 2009 recruit Ben Gardner was not so.

That's not to poo poo rankings; as you mentioned there is a strong correlation between ranking and how someone will do.  And I understand that when you are looking at guys who have yet to step foot on the Stanford campus, ranking is all you have to look at.  But when you are talking about filling holes for the guys who are departing, the size of the hole is dependent on what the recruit has accomplished since joining the team, not what their ranking was coming in.

BC

[BostonCard]

Far be it for me to disagree with WIM, but there are two points in your analysis that I take issue with.  It is very unlikely that incoming freshmen are going to replace graduating seniors.  Rather, the guys replacing the guys graduating pretty much are all already on the roster.  I think it is easier to think of recruitment in two-year cycles instead of four year cycles.  Thus, replacing Wayne Lyons isn't going to be done by a CB we are recruiting this year, but by a CB we recruited a couple years ago (presumably Terrence Alexander).  Likewise, when Hogan leaves after this year, he most likely won't be replaced by Costello, but rather by Chryst or Burns.

The second issue is the use of star ratings of guys who already have a track record in college.  When we talk about replacing Hogan, we aren't really talking about replacing 4* rated QB Kevin Hogan, we are talking about replacing 3.5 year starting QB (and hopefully by next year, an all-Pac-12 honoree Kevin Hogan).  It doesn't matter whether Hogan was a 2* or a 5*, since we have his track record in college.  Replacing 4* 2009 recruit Josh Nunes was trivial; replacing 2* 2009 recruit Ben Gardner was not so.

That's not to poo poo rankings; as you mentioned there is a strong correlation between ranking and how someone will do.  And I understand that when you are looking at guys who have yet to step foot on the Stanford campus, ranking is all you have to look at.  But when you are talking about filling holes for the guys who are departing, the size of the hole is dependent on what the recruit has accomplished since joining the team, not what their ranking was coming in.

BC