12-01-2015, 07:42 PM
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status...4143156225
They are using FPI to predict odds of winning, and FPI has, for whatever reason, always loved USC, so it's not surprising we are given a 48% chance of winning the conference championship. Vegas has us as 4.5 point favorites, which has historically corresponded to a ~63% chance of victory.
FPI gives Alabama a 74% chance of winning the SEC title, which I think is a bit low and likely doesn't reflect Florida's performance of late, especially on offense, of late. I'd give Alabama a 90% chance of winning. The point spread, 9, more or less matches FPI, which is about an 74% chance of victory. Alabama has a small but non-zero chance of making the playoff with a loss, at least per 538.
Clemson has a 57% chance of winning the ACC per FPI, but as 6.5 pt favorites they should win 68% of the time. Going with probabilities derived from Vegas...
Probability of Stanford winning =Â 63%
Probability of either Alabama or Clemson losing = 49%
Probability of Stanford winning and a team ahead losing = 31%
That doesn't factor in the probability of the above happening and either a 1-loss non-champion Ohio State, a 1-loss ACC champion North Carolina getting in ahead of Stanford.
BC
They are using FPI to predict odds of winning, and FPI has, for whatever reason, always loved USC, so it's not surprising we are given a 48% chance of winning the conference championship. Vegas has us as 4.5 point favorites, which has historically corresponded to a ~63% chance of victory.
FPI gives Alabama a 74% chance of winning the SEC title, which I think is a bit low and likely doesn't reflect Florida's performance of late, especially on offense, of late. I'd give Alabama a 90% chance of winning. The point spread, 9, more or less matches FPI, which is about an 74% chance of victory. Alabama has a small but non-zero chance of making the playoff with a loss, at least per 538.
Clemson has a 57% chance of winning the ACC per FPI, but as 6.5 pt favorites they should win 68% of the time. Going with probabilities derived from Vegas...
Probability of Stanford winning =Â 63%
Probability of either Alabama or Clemson losing = 49%
Probability of Stanford winning and a team ahead losing = 31%
That doesn't factor in the probability of the above happening and either a 1-loss non-champion Ohio State, a 1-loss ACC champion North Carolina getting in ahead of Stanford.
BC