[Rally]

[quote author=StanfordMatt link=topic=14013.msg147460#msg147460 date=1449845926]
That's what we said about Luck. Then RG3 happened.

It's not so much that RG3 happened as that Luck (and the team) had worse years the following year. Luck's YPC and passer rating both declined in 2011 (though his completion % improved), while it wasn't as important to him as to someone like Mariota his rushing declined drastically, and while our regular-season record was the same I don't think the team was as dominant as in 2010 (finished the year #4 in FEI in 2010, #9 in 2011). When you enter the year with really high expectations you need to at least meet them, and Luck didn't.

I remember someone saying at some point in 2011 "Who would've thought that the player we'd miss the most would be Doug Baldwin?" I'm not sure whether it was that we didn't have any good receivers who had chemistry with Luck (Griff, as much as I like him, does not count) or what, but Luck really did decline and the voters punished him for it.

So while McCaffrey will benefit from the extra experience and being the pre-season #1, he'll probably need to break a few of his own records to keep that status all year, while Stanford puts up the same or better record. It's hard to do that, but Mariota pulled it off last year.
[/quote]

Agree with everything you said.  It's going to be an uphill battle.  The regional bias will still be there and not exceeding this year's number will be seen as failure by some.  In Marriota's case he compensated for the regional bias by being indisputedly superior plus he led his team to the national championship game.  Best player on arguably the best team, at least at the voting deadline.  McCaffrey will be stronger and more experienced next year (now that's a scary thought) but lots of things can happen, some good, some bad, some out of his control.  Different team . . . How is Love going to impact things? What will be the effect of a new QB?  A new left side of the Oline?  Should be fun.

[Rally]

[quote author=StanfordMatt link=topic=14013.msg147460#msg147460 date=1449845926]
That's what we said about Luck. Then RG3 happened.

It's not so much that RG3 happened as that Luck (and the team) had worse years the following year. Luck's YPC and passer rating both declined in 2011 (though his completion % improved), while it wasn't as important to him as to someone like Mariota his rushing declined drastically, and while our regular-season record was the same I don't think the team was as dominant as in 2010 (finished the year #4 in FEI in 2010, #9 in 2011). When you enter the year with really high expectations you need to at least meet them, and Luck didn't.

I remember someone saying at some point in 2011 "Who would've thought that the player we'd miss the most would be Doug Baldwin?" I'm not sure whether it was that we didn't have any good receivers who had chemistry with Luck (Griff, as much as I like him, does not count) or what, but Luck really did decline and the voters punished him for it.

So while McCaffrey will benefit from the extra experience and being the pre-season #1, he'll probably need to break a few of his own records to keep that status all year, while Stanford puts up the same or better record. It's hard to do that, but Mariota pulled it off last year.
[/quote]

Agree with everything you said.  It's going to be an uphill battle.  The regional bias will still be there and not exceeding this year's number will be seen as failure by some.  In Marriota's case he compensated for the regional bias by being indisputedly superior plus he led his team to the national championship game.  Best player on arguably the best team, at least at the voting deadline.  McCaffrey will be stronger and more experienced next year (now that's a scary thought) but lots of things can happen, some good, some bad, some out of his control.  Different team . . . How is Love going to impact things? What will be the effect of a new QB?  A new left side of the Oline?  Should be fun.