11-04-2011, 04:20 PM
I've been wondering this as well, so I decided to lay out the logic and see where it takes us:
Our goal is to make the Pac 12 championship game.
A win over Oregon, regardless of their record, means we'd pretty much be set for the PAC12 championship game (assuming a victory over Kal).
So I think we need to evaluate the effects of losing to Oregon. What gives us a better chance of making the Pac 12 championship game: a loss to an Oregon team that lost to UW or a loss to an Oregon team that beat UW?
For info on tiebreakers (credit to Roberton3 for the research!): http://www.thecardboard.org/board/index....l#msg34212
So if Oregon defeats Stanford and
1) Oregon defeats UW: Oregon will get into the championship game, even if they lose to USC. This scenario results in Oregon winning over Stanford based on the H2H tiebreaker.
2a) Oregon loses to UW and defeats USC, Oregon will still win the North. This scenario results in a 3 way tie. However, Oregon almost certainly will not have a lower BCS ranking than UW, and we'd lose out again on the H2H tiebreaker to Oregon.
2b) Oregon loses to UW AND loses to USC, we would almost definitely be the North winner. This scenario leaves Stanford and UW at the top with 1 conference loss each, and we'd win out with our Head to head victory over UW.
Either way, a loss to Oregon puts a serious dent on our chances of becoming the North winner, but at least with the second scenario, we will have a chance, albeit a very small one dependent on USC winning. With the first scenario, there is no chance at all.
So in conclusion, Stanford fans should root for UW. But of course this is all moot as long as Stanford wins out. Just win baby win!
Our goal is to make the Pac 12 championship game.
A win over Oregon, regardless of their record, means we'd pretty much be set for the PAC12 championship game (assuming a victory over Kal).
So I think we need to evaluate the effects of losing to Oregon. What gives us a better chance of making the Pac 12 championship game: a loss to an Oregon team that lost to UW or a loss to an Oregon team that beat UW?
For info on tiebreakers (credit to Roberton3 for the research!): http://www.thecardboard.org/board/index....l#msg34212
So if Oregon defeats Stanford and
1) Oregon defeats UW: Oregon will get into the championship game, even if they lose to USC. This scenario results in Oregon winning over Stanford based on the H2H tiebreaker.
2a) Oregon loses to UW and defeats USC, Oregon will still win the North. This scenario results in a 3 way tie. However, Oregon almost certainly will not have a lower BCS ranking than UW, and we'd lose out again on the H2H tiebreaker to Oregon.
2b) Oregon loses to UW AND loses to USC, we would almost definitely be the North winner. This scenario leaves Stanford and UW at the top with 1 conference loss each, and we'd win out with our Head to head victory over UW.
Either way, a loss to Oregon puts a serious dent on our chances of becoming the North winner, but at least with the second scenario, we will have a chance, albeit a very small one dependent on USC winning. With the first scenario, there is no chance at all.
So in conclusion, Stanford fans should root for UW. But of course this is all moot as long as Stanford wins out. Just win baby win!