[metsjetsfan]

So here's a conundrum - suppose Oregon beats us and, with only one loss, is picked for the NC game.

I suppose it's possible...but HIGHLY unlikely.  Oregon would need to be picked over Oklahoma, LSU/Alabama loser, OK state, and Boise State.  In the likely event that either Oklahoma or OK State has one loss, the voters/computers would pick the Big 12 representative over Oregon, simply based on the SOS advantage and perceived superiority of the Big 12.  The LSU/Alabama loser would probably get in over Oregon for the same reason, with the added fact that Oregon already lost decisively to LSU.  Boise State would have the case of being an undefeated team and the first chance for a non-Big 6 team making the NCG.

IMO, way more needs to happen for Oregon to make the NCG, and that's too much to bank on than if Oregon simply loses to UW.

But then again, obviously this is all conjecture, and what we say has no effect on the games.  I think we could still pick up a BCS bowl bid with a loss to Oregon, as the bowl committees would probably look at the Luck effect.  So I'm still optimistic that we're destined for a BCS bowl regardless of whether we lose to Oregon, with the ideal matchup being a Sugar Bowl debut against an SEC team (assuming Oregon/ASU goes to the Rose Bowl).

[metsjetsfan]

So here's a conundrum - suppose Oregon beats us and, with only one loss, is picked for the NC game.

I suppose it's possible...but HIGHLY unlikely.  Oregon would need to be picked over Oklahoma, LSU/Alabama loser, OK state, and Boise State.  In the likely event that either Oklahoma or OK State has one loss, the voters/computers would pick the Big 12 representative over Oregon, simply based on the SOS advantage and perceived superiority of the Big 12.  The LSU/Alabama loser would probably get in over Oregon for the same reason, with the added fact that Oregon already lost decisively to LSU.  Boise State would have the case of being an undefeated team and the first chance for a non-Big 6 team making the NCG.

IMO, way more needs to happen for Oregon to make the NCG, and that's too much to bank on than if Oregon simply loses to UW.

But then again, obviously this is all conjecture, and what we say has no effect on the games.  I think we could still pick up a BCS bowl bid with a loss to Oregon, as the bowl committees would probably look at the Luck effect.  So I'm still optimistic that we're destined for a BCS bowl regardless of whether we lose to Oregon, with the ideal matchup being a Sugar Bowl debut against an SEC team (assuming Oregon/ASU goes to the Rose Bowl).