[81alum]

Projecting when she gets the 1000th is quite difficult given that there are several highly competitive games coming up, and so the projection winds up becoming a real statement about how you think the team is doing. 

This is not like our old teams that won every game they were supposed to win.  And so looking at those games when we will be favored--Utah, Colorado, Arizona, Washington State and USC--it is entirely possible that we could drop one of them.  At Washington State is perhaps the riskiest. 

Arizona State at home will be tough.  ASU will be highly motivated and they also will have the earlier game film to study, and so the past results are not necessarily a good prediction.  But playing at home will help, and hopefully Kaylee will be rounding back into form--both of which are small advantages we did not have last time.

Washington at their place will be a very tough game.  I'm not sure we have the personnel to defend Plum very well--we did not last year, and we have been vulnerable to the trey and so Romeo will be a problem for us.  Still, we handily won one of our three games against Washington last year, and Oregon State showed that Washington can be beaten and that Plum is mortal. 

So...I think it would be very unlikely that we would beat both ASU and Washington, and so we very likely might be trying to get to 1000 against UCLA at home.  But how will we play against UCLA?  Last year was a devastating loss, but they certainly look vulnerable after being swept in Washington.  We will have them at home this time. 

So here is what I would say:
10% odds of clinching 1000 against S.C (don't lose a game)
45% odds of clinching 1000 against U.CLA (for example, only lose to Washington)
30% odds of clinching 1000 against Colorado (for example, lose to Washington and UCLA)
10% odds of clinching 1000 against Utah (for example, lose to ASU, Washington, and UCLA)
5% odds of clinching 1000 away against C.al or at home against C.al

[81alum]

Projecting when she gets the 1000th is quite difficult given that there are several highly competitive games coming up, and so the projection winds up becoming a real statement about how you think the team is doing. 

This is not like our old teams that won every game they were supposed to win.  And so looking at those games when we will be favored--Utah, Colorado, Arizona, Washington State and USC--it is entirely possible that we could drop one of them.  At Washington State is perhaps the riskiest. 

Arizona State at home will be tough.  ASU will be highly motivated and they also will have the earlier game film to study, and so the past results are not necessarily a good prediction.  But playing at home will help, and hopefully Kaylee will be rounding back into form--both of which are small advantages we did not have last time.

Washington at their place will be a very tough game.  I'm not sure we have the personnel to defend Plum very well--we did not last year, and we have been vulnerable to the trey and so Romeo will be a problem for us.  Still, we handily won one of our three games against Washington last year, and Oregon State showed that Washington can be beaten and that Plum is mortal. 

So...I think it would be very unlikely that we would beat both ASU and Washington, and so we very likely might be trying to get to 1000 against UCLA at home.  But how will we play against UCLA?  Last year was a devastating loss, but they certainly look vulnerable after being swept in Washington.  We will have them at home this time. 

So here is what I would say:
10% odds of clinching 1000 against S.C (don't lose a game)
45% odds of clinching 1000 against U.CLA (for example, only lose to Washington)
30% odds of clinching 1000 against Colorado (for example, lose to Washington and UCLA)
10% odds of clinching 1000 against Utah (for example, lose to ASU, Washington, and UCLA)
5% odds of clinching 1000 away against C.al or at home against C.al