[OutsiderFan]

Yes, they would give a king's ransom to get a totally healthy one with no question marks, but Luck has an injury that brings question marks.  Alex Smith got the Niners a #2 pick.  He was fully healthy and had demonstrated an ability to lead his team to the cusp of a Super Bowl.  Maybe he wasn't as good as Luck in terms of ceiling, but it seems reasonable to believe Luck's throwing shoulder health situation would mitigate any ceiling advantage Luck might have over Smith in terms of assessing his trade value.  And the longer Luck doesn't play, the more his trade value will go down.

If the Colts don't play Luck this season, which seems possible, he could plummet to a conditional 3rd round pick.

[OutsiderFan]

Yes, they would give a king's ransom to get a totally healthy one with no question marks, but Luck has an injury that brings question marks.  Alex Smith got the Niners a #2 pick.  He was fully healthy and had demonstrated an ability to lead his team to the cusp of a Super Bowl.  Maybe he wasn't as good as Luck in terms of ceiling, but it seems reasonable to believe Luck's throwing shoulder health situation would mitigate any ceiling advantage Luck might have over Smith in terms of assessing his trade value.  And the longer Luck doesn't play, the more his trade value will go down.

If the Colts don't play Luck this season, which seems possible, he could plummet to a conditional 3rd round pick.